Tuesday, May 13, 2008

Dead Cat Bounce

As expected, Hillary Clinton wins the West Virginia primary easily. It won't change the overall results much, as Hillary is simply too far behind now. What is striking is her margin of victory, or, more importantly, the margin of defeat for Barack Obama. If Obama wants to be president, he will have to win states like West Virginia. Let's just say he has a lot of work to do.

2 comments:

Anonymous said...

Mark,
I agree with your first point that the vote last night doesn't change anything vis-a-vis the nomination process. It's over. But I don't agree that Obama needs to win WV, or even states like it, to win in the General. In fact, I think last night may have liberated him from even bothering with that state, since it looks like Alfed E. Neuman could've beat him there. But so what, the Mountaineering State just doesn't carry much of a whack anymore. It's got five electoral votes and is shrinking fairly rapidly. It can easily be offset with New Mexico, Virginia, NC, etc. Each of which are getting bluer and larger every election cycle. So HRC can prattle on about how no one since Wilson has lost this state in a general election and won, but the battleground states are shifting and will be elsewhere. And let's not forget that the GOP lost its third special election in a dark red state last night, and is now 0 for 3. I am in agreement with Newt Gingrich. This election cycle doesn't bode well for Republicans.

Regards,
Rich

Mark Heuring said...

I dunno Rich, I think winning West Virginia would be a good thing for the Democrats. As a matter of math, you can win the presidency by winning only 11 states if they are the right 11. But I wouldn't want to a be a president that got in office that way.

As for the special election, that's okay. The R's may indeed have a terrible November and you and your friends may be gloating away. But as you well know, the fundamental nature of the Democratic leadership hasn't changed and if your party tries to recreat what happened in the first two years of Bill Clinton's administration, things will change back the other way in a hurry.

I sense that a lot of people are tired of George W. Bush and the Republicans, but it doesn't necessarily follow that these people are now eager for the blandishments of untrammeled liberalism. But we'll find out. Anyway, you're getting a sneak preview of tonight's post, so I'd better stop now.

Best,
Mark