Thursday, October 09, 2008

The Lake Winnebago Election


I grew up not far from Lake Winnebago, the largest lake entirely within the borders of Wisconsin. Lake Winnebago is an odd lake, because while it has a vast surface area (almost 138,000 acres) it doesn't really hold that much water. It may be 30 miles from north to south and 10 miles from east to west, but the maximum depth of the lake is only 21 feet and much of the lake is no more than 8-9 feet deep. There are places where you can walk out into the lake for a half mile or more and the water is only four or five feet high.


I've been thinking that this election is a lot like Lake Winnebago. It appears that the advantage the Democrats have is pretty wide, but my sense is the depth of support is pretty small. Aside from the true believers, many people who are considering voting for Obama aren't really sure it's the right thing to do. As I've been watching things this week, and as I've talked to people I know, I've sensed that Obama's support could yet fade.


The problem that the McCain campaign is having is that there is no one defining matter that would reach enough people to turn the campaign. Should the campaign be talking about Bill Ayers, as it has been lately? Should it be talking about Congress, especially people like Barney Frank and Chris Dodd? Should it be talking about ACORN? Or something else?


As an amateur pundit, I don't have to have all the answers. But I like to ask questions. So my question for tonight is this - what should the McCain campaign be talking about for the remainder of the campaign? And can McCain drain Lake Winnebago?


5 comments:

Gino said...

one thing: he shouldnt be getting into a bidding war with taxpayers money. you can never outbid a democrat. its a losing game, and the sure sign of a losing campaign.

W.B. Picklesworth said...

I second Gino's comment. He's turned me off to the extent that I might not vote for him at all. Obviously Obama is a bum, but if there's going to be someone in the White House peddling quasi-socialist horse manure, I'd rather that it be a Democrat. That way we can expose it for the pig whizzle it is and get back to sanity.

On the other hand, I really don't want Obama within a timezone of any kind of power because he is bad news. I'm not sure it's narcissist bad or genuinely socialist bad, but either is bad enough.

Anonymous said...

If I wanted McCain to win I'd tell him two things. 1) It's the economy,stupid. Right now Americans overwhelmingly care about one thing, and if you don't convince them that you care about it just as much you haven't got a chance. 2) Pick a plan and stick to it. Tossing out a new, random bit of policy every couple days isn't doing him any good. His response is coming across as haphazard and unserious and has mostly succeeded in pissing off people who might otherwise be inclined to vote for him.
McCain's problem as a candidate is the problem he said Obama has on foreign policy. He doesn't understand the difference between strategy and tactics. His campaign is an endless series of stunts with nothing connecting them. Why does John McCain want to be president? What does he think he can accomplish? I have no idea. And so far as I can tell, neither does he.

Anonymous said...

Broadcast the true cause of the current crisis. Let everyone know that Dodd and his boys blocked every attempt at reform of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac. Let them know that the seeds of the crisis were sewn in the Clinton years, and that any attempts at reform were blocked by Democrats. Also connect the dots by showing how Obama is second only to Dodd in receiving money from Fannie Mae, and that he has taken substantial advice from those who ran it.

I wouldn't necessarily portry Obama as the perpertrator, but making him a pathetic ignorant who was simply following the orders of the experienced corrupt Democratic party leades (sprinkle in a little Biden slam) and you've got what you want: An inexperienced candidate who listens to the wrong people, and has chosen one of the wrong people for his VP.

After these FACTS (note this is all true, not speculation) have been established, a little Tony Resko and Ayers as a second wave should provide substanital damage to his credibility. Once again, slamming him directly most likely won't pay off. Portraying him as young and naive (ie not having the experience necessary for the job) will go a long way toward the insecurities of those on the fence and the even with some who lean slightly his way.

Right Hook said...

I pretty much concur with NIFOs assessment, but with a slightly different diagnosis of the cause of McCain's ineptness. McCain and his campaign are showing the classic symptoms of being "moderate".

McCain has been around long enough to probably have some ideas what he wants to do as President, but he also has a history of being all over the map without an firm underlying framework or philosophy and some of his ideas may well be mutually exclusive. His communications and presentation skills are also not where they need to be in an era of "American Idol" politics.

McCain is a weak candidate without a firm ideology but Obama is a narcissistic, naive, and dangerous one with a repugnant ideology.

Obama has so many negatives that McCain needs to exploit in a detailed "this is why I am the better choice" context (as opposed to just listing Obama's many faults without a contrast to himself which will just lead to Obama being able to deny the truth until the clock runs out).

The unfortunate choice we have this election is between "qualified but mediocre" and "unqualified and dangerous". Clearly the primary system that led to this is broken and needs to be fixed.