Monday, July 09, 2012

He's got nothin'

A lot of people understand that Barack Obama is circling the drain and the desperation about that is getting almost palpable. You can always tell when such things are happening because the various think tank denizens start dusting off their white papers. Today we see the deep thoughts of Jonathan Rauch*:

The president's failure, so far, to show that he understands the scope of the economy's problems and knows how to fix them does not stem from having nothing to say: Investment in education, energy, innovation and infrastructure are reasonable things. But they are also slow-acting, small-bore stuff. Such talk does not include additional economic stimulus, an element that many economists, especially Democratic-leaning ones, consider crucial to prevent a double-dip recession. Nor does it deal realistically with long-term growth in spending.

So Obama should draw a map and send it to Capitol Hill in the form of a bill -- a president's strongest statement that he intends action. A big legislative proposal can frame the issue and paint Obama's intentions in bold colors.
So what's bold? Simpson-Bowles, baby!
1) Long-term fiscal retrenchment. The easiest and best way is to adopt the Simpson-Bowles deficit plan. The Simpson-Bowles commission's recommendations have been established as a credible bipartisan solution. Adopting it outright would signal that Obama is not playing partisan games and would redress the (justified) criticism that he has finessed the deficit. Not least, Simpson-Bowles compares favorably on grounds of balance, economic plausibility and public appeal with the budget of Rep. Paul Ryan, R-Wis., which Romney endorsed.
There's nothing more bold than adopting the work of a commission that produced a series of recommendations that has been sitting around gathering dust for two years.

But there's more from our man Rauch:
2) Short-term economic stimulus. Republicans will howl about more spending. Let them. Stimulus measures make sense when unemployment is high and the world is teetering on the edge of a second recession. And provided they are coupled with credible long-term retrenchment, they are politically and economically defensible. Such measures have a further political advantage: Obama and the Democrats would be running on what they believe is the right answer, instead of running away from it.
"Provided they are coupled with credible long-term retrenchment," huh? Just like the last time! The stimulus that was supposed to be a one-time thing is now the baseline for budgeting in the Obama administration. And because the first stimulus worked so well, why not try it again, right?

But all good wonks have three ideas in their pocket, right. Back to Rauch:
3) A two-year debt-limit extension. Declare that another debt-limit fiasco is unacceptable and demand that the issue be taken off the table. Let Republicans explain why they want to hold a gun to the economy's head.
Now we're getting delusional. The campaign is about the government's spending and how effective it's been. So let's just let it ride for two more years. Very few people outside the Beltway pay attention to the particulars of the sausage making, so the business of "holding a gun to the economy's head" is just silly.

More importantly, none of this is bold, either. We've had dozens of commissions and the federal government has been doing the Keynesian fandango for the better part of 100 years now and here we sit. The ruminations of wise men and inside baseball won't move the needle.

Meanwhile, Obama is back with the same proposal he's made before:
 With a torpid job market and fragile economy threatening his re-election chances, President Obama is changing the subject to tax fairness, calling for a one-year extension of the Bush-era tax cuts for people making less than $250,000.
Bold, Mr. President. Even the loyal scribes at the New York Times aren't buying this:
But by calling for an extension for just a year, Obama hopes to make Republicans look obstructionist and unreasonable. 
And icky, too.

*Not to be confused with Jon Rauch, the hulking, tattooed pitcher who has labored for about half the teams in the major leagues.

4 comments:

Brian said...

You know how I know I'm a big fat nerd?

I know exactly who Jonathan Rauch is, and I've never heard of the other guy.

Mr. D said...

I know exactly who Jonathan Rauch is, and I've never heard of the other guy.

The other guy will pitch for the Mariners eventually.

Night Writer said...

The debt-limit is a gun to the head of the economy. It says, "Step away from the toilet."

Anonymous said...

But if the Bush tax cuts got us in this mess, why do we continue them year after year, at Obama's behest? And if middle class tax cuts are good, how about cancelling that whopping Obamacare tax that's going to hit the poor and middle class the hardest?

J. Ewing