Tuesday, November 04, 2014

Gotta get some sleep, but a few thoughts

No wave in Minnesota, but nationally it's a different world. A few thoughts:

  • Scott Walker has easily won reelection. I don't know if he'll really run for president in 2016 or not, but he's going to be on the short list.
  • We'll have plenty of time for buyer's remorse on this side of the St. Croix. The over/under on a Dayton resignation for health reasons is 17 months. Watch for a bunch of human interest stories about Tina Flint Smith in the meantime.
  • Al Franken wanted to be senator in the worst way. Now he gets his wish. Let's see if he keeps his head down now that the shield that Harry Reid has provided him is gone.
  • The question, in the end, is how many seats the Republicans will actually control. The best guess is 53, assuming Mark Begich gets the pipe in Alaska and that Bill Cassidy ousts Mary Landrieu next month in the Louisiana runoff. I also think you could see at least 2 Democrats cross the aisle -- Joe Manchin of West Virginia, and my personal hunch, Heidi Heitkamp of North Dakota. You might also see independent Angus King of Maine caucus with the Republicans as well, since there won't be much advantage to caucusing with the Democrats at this point. If that happens, the margin would be 56-44 in the Senate.
More in the morning. By then we'll know what happened to Stewart Mills, among other things.

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