Best Guesses

I don't trust polling much, because I suspect pollsters aren't having much luck getting people to answer their phones these days. We still have a landline phone and we never pick up a call from a number we don't recognize; while I'm almost certain someone has called us to find out how we feel in this household, the pollsters couldn't tell you. And that's what happens with many people.

So that means any predictions we make about the election are going to be wild guesses. But since it's the day before the election, here are my guesses:

Will the Democrats take the House of Representatives? Yes, but narrowly, and mostly because the courts in Pennsylvania redrew the congressional districts there in a way that grossly favored the Democrats. This will cause Trump some heartburn, to be sure, but some of the people who will become committee chairs are such loons (Maxine Waters? Really?) that it will be tough for the Dems to hold the House in the next cycle.

Will Scott Walker survive in Wisconsin? Yes, but barely.

Will Tim Walz win the governor's race in Minnesota? Yes, but I'm less convinced of that than I was a few weeks ago. Walz hasn't been very visible and when he has been, he's been shaky. Jeff Johnson has run a better campaign this time around, but I still don't think he'll be able to overcome the DFL machine.

Can Karin Housley win? Yes, but I don't think she will. But I am not confident in this prediction. And Tina Smith, if she wins in 2018, will have a big target on her back in 2020.

Will Doug Wardlow beat Keith Ellison? Yes, because the DFL machine won't get Ellison enough votes outside of Hennco and Ramco to get the job done. Ellison could also endanger Walz.

Who wins the Minnesota House? We've heard almost nothing about this; in my particular district, the DFL is running essentially unopposed. I think the House will stay with the Republicans, primarily because metro area district vote totals won't affect what happens in, say, Sleepy Eye.

Who wins the MN congressional races? Down the list of contested races:

CD1:  The DFL and outside groups threw a lot of money behind Dan Feehan, but I think Jim Hagedorn wins.
CD2:  Jason Lewis is probably going down, but Angie Craig is a fraud and deep down many of the voters in CD2 already know it. If she wins, she'll be vulnerable in 2020.
CD3:  Dean Phillips is Stewart Mills with better press. In a more just world, he'd be crushed. But Erik Paulsen has run a terrible campaign and is probably out the door.
CD8:  Pete Stauber wins easily. Joe Radinovich is an astonishingly poor candidate.

Could Collin Peterson go down in CD7? Dave Hughes has no money, but seeing Collin Peterson ads on metro television in the last week suggests Peterson is worried. I wouldn't bet my house on Hughes, but it would not surprise me if he retires Peterson.

Give me your guesses in the comments.