Friday, November 02, 2018

Where are we?

No facts presented in this feature -- let's face it, in 2018 politics, facts are difficult to get. Opinions are everywhere, though. Here are mine:

  • I suspect the long knives will be out for Keith Ellison after this election. I've never thought he could win statewide office and his campaign for attorney general has demonstrated that nicely. The larger question is whether or not he'll hurt the other DFL candidates. Doug Wardlow could be a very useful fellow in the AG's office.
  • While it would be wonderful if Jeff Johnson could pull of the upset and win the governor's race, my guess is he falls short. Tim Walz is not a particularly strong candidate and nothing about him suggests he'll be any good at being a governor, but the DFL machine in the metro will likely be enough to get him elected. 
  • You know what would give us a better Minnesota? The demise of Alliance for a Better Minnesota, that's what. Their latest attack ad, in which they exploit a handicapped young man, is beyond the pale. Every ad they run is filled with lies and yet somehow KSTP's "Truth Test" and WCCO's "Reality Check" never get around to vetting them. Wonder why that is? No, you don't, because you know the reason why already.
  • Lately some Wisconsin ads have been airing here. The Dem candidate for governor, Tony Evers, has the personality of lint and is frankly creepy, but he's running neck and neck with two-term Scott Walker, one of the most consequential politicians of his generation. I know that people get fatigued with politicians over time, but it's astonishing to me that Evers is even close.
  • Amy Klobuchar, Tina Smith, and Tammy Baldwin are all up for election. They are all dismal, but all are likely to return to Washington. There's a chance that Karin Housley might beat Smith, who has never won a statewide election, but I'm not confident that Housley will get there.
  • We may flip four Congressional seats in Minnesota. It's almost certain that Pete Stauber is going to Washington in the 8th, and it's quite possible that Jim Hagedorn is finally going to get elected in the 1st. But it's also looking likely that Erik Paulsen is going down in the 3rd, and Jason Lewis will be fortunate if he is reelected in the 2nd. I knew Paulsen a little bit when we worked together at Target and he's a good guy, but he's run a poor campaign against Dean Phillips, who has more money than King Canute and came up with a good shtick. Lewis went to Washington and actually did some useful things, but his district is turning left and the odious Angie Craig has an excellent chance to beat Lewis. If Lewis loses, we'll miss him more than most people realize.
What do you think?

5 comments:

John said...

Tony Evers' campaign bus was parked in front of the craft brewery/pub in downtown Hudson yesterday afternoon and he has made a few appearances in the area. So has Scott Walker. At least they know western Wisconsin exists. I have been getting mailers from the Baldwin campaign. I'm not sure where they got my address. Probably from veterans groups. I'm sure they didn't get it from the NRA, which is the only group I usually get campaign literature from. The Dems must be getting desperate for new voters. Too late. I early voted "R" last week.

3john2 said...

Evers and Walz come from the same pocket of lint, but the media and elites in Dane, Hennepin and Ramsey County will huff and puff and likely push them along and over the top. Both Walker and Lewis have solid things they can point to, but the theme these days seems to be not about what you've done, but all the (horrible) things one MIGHT do.

Mr. D said...

Evers and Walz come from the same pocket of lint, but the media and elites in Dane, Hennepin and Ramsey County will huff and puff and likely push them along and over the top.

I've been asking around on the Wisconsin governor's race, and most people I've talked to think Walker will win, but it's going to be really close. I'm guessing Walz will win, though.

Brad Carlson said...

Suddenly MN's CD7 is in the "toss up" category. This district is about as red as CD6 (both around R+16 I believe), but Collin Peterson keeps getting rubber-stamped through. The millisecond he retires, the 7th will have perpetual GOP representation. Here's hoping the retirement comes via the ballot box next week.

Mr. D said...

Suddenly MN's CD7 is in the "toss up" category. This district is about as red as CD6 (both around R+16 I believe), but Collin Peterson keeps getting rubber-stamped through. The millisecond he retires, the 7th will have perpetual GOP representation. Here's hoping the retirement comes via the ballot box next week.

No time like the present!