Benster and D Pick Your Games -- It's Time To Have A Serious Conversation About The Packers Edition

No, I'm not bitter at all about what happened last week. 

Well, I am But it's a bitter resignation. Being a Packers fan is a guarantee of life lessons

And yes, I am still here. It's time to have a discussion about the Packers in the wake of the meltdown at Solider Field last weekend. 

Discussion, you say? Or a Very Special Comment?

Read on and find out. But first, we have business to attend to. I am still feeling the HYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYPPPPPPPPPPPPPPPPEEEEEEEEEEEEEE! and ready to pick some games. Watch me work. 

Buffalo Bills (+1) vs. Denver Broncos I've certainly been critical of Josh Allen in the past, but last week he showed me how tough he is. Jacksonville is a very good football team, and Allen took matters into his own hands in the fourth quarter to win, with his teammates making a big play on defense. This Bills team is the most experienced team left in the AFC, and you get the sense that they are like a college basketball team that is senior heavy and experienced in March Madness. Denver is a very tough minded team that looks like the Mike Shanahan teams I grew up watching. In particular, I consider RJ Harvey to be one of the most underrated players in the NFL. The thing is, the Broncos still have a pretty young core, and this Bills team feels like they are on a mission. Mile High is a tough environment, but I like the Bills to pull off a win that sets them up nicely to finally break through to the Super Bowl. Nobody Circles The Wagons Like The Buffalo Bills 24, Broncos 17. 

This weekend will have a theme, I think - this is the weekend the nice stories come to an end. With all the injuries the Bills have faced, Josh Allen may have too much to overcome. Denver is not a great team, but they have home field and a nasty defense. As great a magician as Josh Allen can be, he's run out of ladies to saw in half. Denver 27, Buffalo 23.

San Francisco 49ers (+7) vs. Seattle Seachickens As it turns out, Sam Darnold has really made the Vikings front office look questionable for letting him walk. I asked Mrs. D aka Mom if she would have kept Darnold knowing what we know now. She agreed that having an experienced backup would have helped, and that Darnold certainly has a point to prove to the Vikings. The thing is, he has turned up on the injury report and his health is going to be watched closely all night. The Niners certainly have experience and are proven threats, but the problem is that they are running out of bodies. As we saw last week with the Packers, even good coaching can't save you when practice squad guys have to play in positions that they likely weren't going to be in. I don't think Darnold is going to cough up a hairball again, as happened against the Rams last year. Seahawks 35, Niners 14. 

I have to admit - I am very surprised the Niners are still standing at this point. They have had an incredible run of bad injuries to key players. The latest guy to go down in George Kittle, their outstanding tight end and spirit animal. Darnold is likely to cough up a hairball at some point, but I agree, it won't be this week. Seattle 28, San Francisco 24.

Houston Texans (+3) vs. New England Patriots Both teams relied on very good defensive performances and got enough points thanks to their emerging star quarterbacks to get a good win last weekend. As someone who pays little attention to the Titans, it seems clear that Mike Vrabel wasn't the issue in Nashville, and because the Titans aren't good outside of their social media team, New England had an opportunity and wisely hired him and allowed him to build another good team; Vrabel obviously learned how to win in New England and his success as a player for the Patriots has spread to his coaching in Foxborough. The Texans have a great defense that travels very well, and are looking to break through to play in their first ever conference title game. I think that this game is going to be a lot of fun to watch. I feel like this is Houston's time and I've always liked CJ Stroud, even though I am no Buckeye fan. Texans 21, Patriots 20. 

This is the one game that doesn't involve a cute story - these are merciless teams with talent and resolve. The Texans are offensively challenged, but their defense is top-notch and they are not without weapons. I think the Patriots are actually a year ahead of schedule; they have the look of another multi-year contender, but while Drake Maye looks the part, I'm not sure he's seen a defense like the Texans yet. This one is tough to pick. I actually like the Texans more, but to keep it interesting... New England 21, Houston 20.

Los Angeles Rams (-4) vs. Bear Down Chicago Da Bearz Still Suck As much as it pains me to say it given my obvious biases, the Bears did what they had to do last weekend, and the Bears fans who dealt with all of the jokes over the past decade or so do get to serve us some tasty crow. Here is the thing though -- the Bears remind me a lot of the 2014 Florida State football team. If you remember, the Noles went undefeated in the regular season and had won a bunch of games under improbable circumstances via second half comebacks and magic plays by Jameis Winston. I remember distinctly, while attending the Rose Bowl between Florida State and Oregon in 2015 (we had the good fortune to be there) thinking that the Noles were very much alive despite being down at the half in what had been a pretty solid game. But then Oregon came out and laid the hammer down brutally that afternoon in Pasadena. It is a fair question how much magic the Bears have, because eventually you can't come back every week from a subpar first half. The weather is going to be cold and snowy on Sunday night in Chicago, but Matthew Stafford has played in cold weather before and the Rams are a team that seems like they want to spoil the party in Chicago. And to quote Mark Dantonio, pride comes before the fall Bears. Rams House 31, Bears Still Suck 0. 

The Bears are vampires. Sean McVay is Van Helsing. It's become clear that Caleb Williams is a magician of the first rank - some of the throws he made to beat the Packers were nothing less than astonishing. Even though I hate 'em, the Bears are a cute, nice story. The problem they have this week is they don't have an answer for Puka Nacua and Davante Adams. They had trouble dealing with the Packers receivers and the challenge this week is far greater. On offense, Williams will have more trouble with the Rams, who have a better assortment of pass rushers than the Packers could muster without Micah Parsons on the field. The formula for a Bears win would be to run the ball down the throat of the Rams and to keep Matthew Stafford and his crew off the field. I don't think they'll be able to do that. And the league is already getting tired of Ben Johnson's shtick. Los Angeles 34, Chicago 20.

Miami Hurricanes (+8) vs. Indiana Hoosiers, in Miami. If you would have told me that Indiana football would play for a national title sooner than Indiana basketball, I would have called you insane. The Hoosiers have steamrolled both of their playoff opponents, and are getting ready to play a Miami team that has all of the bandwagon fans who were nowhere to be seen 5 years ago coming out of the woodwork. Miami is currently high on my list because of the Xavier Lucas affair where Miami induced him to transfer despite having signed a contract with the Badgers and not entering the transfer portal. As of this writing, the lawsuit is still pending. The good news is that this game is SEC free yet again, which I appreciate so much. As it turns out, the most important position in the SEC is the bagman. With NIL, the bagman doesn't exist in that form anymore. Even though the U gets to play in their own building, this Indiana team is ready to be the third different Big Ten school to win a title in a row, and the first one that isn't a traditional power. Google Them, They Win 24, 7th Floor Crew In Shambles 17.

Arms akimbo and kicking butt

Miami has been impressive in their run to the finals, but Indiana has been otherworldly. The emerging formula for college athletics in the NIL era seems to be if you want to be fun, you hire 5 star high school players, but if you want to contend for championships, you bring in battle-tested transfers. That's how Indiana has been doing this - their players are not as athletically gifted as their opponents, but they are grown-ass men and they cuff around the talented kids. Miami has some of both - I think their quarterback Carson Beck is closer to 30 than 20. While the Hoosiers have been nothing short of astonishing all season, they are not a nice story. They are on a mission, though, and I fully expect them to complete the mission.. Indiana 34, Miami 16.

And now, it is time for A Very Special Comment. The Packers really have to do some soul searching. When I consider what happened on Saturday to be as bad as the Seattle meltdown of 2014, that is when you should know that you done messed up. We just gave the Bears hope and momentum, and lost control of the rivalry. 

Not what you want.

Not at all, old dude! The bottom line for me is that there are 3 simple things that the Packers need to do right now to show that they understand what is going on. 

• Special teams needs an overhaul. I can't believe that I am saying this again, but it is time for a rethink. Rich Bisaccia is getting paid a ton of money, but he left at least 7 points on the board and almost had another disaster on the kickoff that Jacobs almost fumbled. Brandon McManus looks past his prime, and he cost the team at least 4 games. He didn't convert kicks that were key in the losses to the Bears, Panthers, Browns, and Eagles. I realize that I was spoiled by having Mason Crosby around for years to be clutch, but at some point this organization needs to take a serious look at getting guys in for special teams. Even being above league average would be much better. I expect this to be a key decision. 
• Matt Lafleur's fate is unknown as of this time in regards to being a lame duck coach, but he lost me. You knew well after the first meltdown at Solider Field that playing not to lose and letting your foot off the gas was a mistake. Well, the first few drives in the second half were plodding and playing to lose. The Packers let the crowd back into the game, and it's been the same themes for the past couple of years. After the game, it was yet more of "I need to be better" and the usual excuses. Matt, you aren't a young first time head coach anymore.
• It is time for some serious changes in the coaching staff. With Jeff Hafley likely being gone to take a head coaching job, it wouldn't surprise me if Lafleur is being told that getting some coordinators who aren't intternal hires. There needs to be some serious questions asked about if Lafleur is growing too stale. Considering that Mike Tomlin and John Harbaugh ended up moving on after accusations of being stale by Steelers and Ravens fans, it is a fair question. 

Ed Policy has shown himself to be more aggressive as the team president. I get the sense that he does want to be stable but also gets that the fanbase expects to win. Call it arrogance and being demanding, but Packers fans my age expect to win, and it has been 15 years since the Lombardi trophy has been back home. I don't think that the Micah Parsons trade would have happened under Murphy, and Policy is going to try very hard to get this team to be more bold in pursuit of championships. The thing is, the Packer way of getting rid of players a year too early needs to apply to coaches and executives as well. It wouldn't surprise me if Policy wants to bring in someone that he wants as a coach. How Lafleur's contract discussions are going will provide a huge sign of how aggressive the Packers are going to be. 

Enjoy your football this weekend. Ben out.

Benster and D Pick Your Games -- So We Get Round 3 Edition

So the Packers get the chance to go back to Solider Field and get the rubber match. 

Bring it on.

 Meanwhile, the SEC is going to be out of the national title game again for the third straight year. You really do hate to see it. By the time this post goes up, will Miami get to play Oregon or Indiana? 

Here's a hint:

So, at least Dan Lanning can't go back there.

He may need to Google that Sadly, I was not able to regain my crown in fantasy football because despite having another good week, my opponent decided to drop 140 points. I know that nobody cares about my fantasy team, but this is the second year in a row I have lost the title game. 

No, that's okay, I care. I care deeply. Really, I do.

Sarcasm does not become you, Geritol Fan! I am feeling the HYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYPPPPPPEEEEEE! and ready to pick some games. Watch me work.

 Los Angeles Rams (-10.5) vs. Carolina Panthers I'll be honest when I say that the Panthers have been one of the biggest surprises of the year. They have had a lot of turmoil, but all of a sudden they were able to win the bad NFC South and get the reward of playing a Rams team that lost that epic Thursday nighter in Seattle. The Rams have rebounded nicely after paying the price for their all in title win, and probably don't appreciate going across the country on a short week. If you remember, the Panthers won their earlier matchup. I believe that the Panthers are going to play their usual tough game to get the Rams into the mosh pit. But while Carolina is going to be determined, I believe that the Rams will gut out a tough win. Rams 21, Panthers 19. 

Carolina is sneaky good, but I suspect the Rams might be the best team in the NFC and they will handle business tomorrow afternoon. Rams 34, Panthers 17.

Glorious Green Bay Packers (-1.5) vs. Bear Down Chicago Da Bearz Still Suck So we all know what happened a couple of weeks ago at Soldier Field, and how both games between these two have been arguably been the game of the year. I was in favor of the Packers resting players because they have been too banged up in a similar fashion to 2016 where they had to chuck fringe NFL/UFL type guys to guard Julio Jones straight up. For Jordan Love and Caleb Williams, this is the game that they are going to be judged on. If you remember the 2010 NFC title game between these two teams, Jay Cutler's reputation never recovered from the unfair criticism he got that day. A Bears win won't fully erase that playoff loss, but this is a game that both Love and Williams can't lose. This Packer core that will play for the most part is the same as the one that made history two years ago against Dallas, and I like history repeating itself. Also, the Packers should have Jordan Love healthy for the entire game this time and the Bears can't keep relying on 4th quarter magic to bail them out of trouble again. Packers 21, Bears Still Suck 14.

The Bears themselves have been pretty quiet this week, but man, their fans have been insufferable. Perhaps the Packers have too many injuries, but I think they'll do well. The key guy is going to be Christian Watson. If he goes off, and I'm guessing he does, the Packers will move on. Packers 28, Bears 20.

Buffalo Bills (-1) vs. Jacksonville Jaguars While I personally think that Dave Canales should get Coach of the Year, Liam Cohen has also done a fantastic job. The Jaguars really have looked impressive, and in an AFC that is wide open given that the boogeyman of the AFC is at home they have a great chance. The problem is that Buffalo is experienced and is a team that is ready to take the next step. Josh Allen is at a point similar to Peyton Manning was in 2006. Allen has been brilliant and has revived the Bills, but hasn't been able to win the big one to this point in his career. With the Chiefs not being in the playoffs, this is a great chance for Allen to finally break through and win the ring that will silence all of the narratives forever. So while Jacksonville is a team that I like, Buffalo will use their experience to get this done. Nobody Circles The Wagons Like the Buffalo Bills 45, Jags 23. 

I think Jacksonville is, top to bottom, a better team. Buffalo has to go on the road and that will complicate matters further. While, I agree, nobody circles the wagons and all that, I'm thinking this one is where the Jags are overduuuuuuuuuuuuval. See, I can extend words, too! Jaguars 28, Bills 24.

San Francisco 49ers (+6) vs. Philadelphia Eagles Long time readers know that I am not a huge fan of Kyle Shanahan. I consider him a coach that while talented, is a coach who has not gotten it done for the Niners, despite having a loaded roster with Purdy on a cheap deal. This clearly has nothing to do with the Niners knocking out the Packers in the playoffs multiple times in the recent past, don't let that get in the way of this narrative. As for the Eagles, they somehow seem incapable of going a week without getting questioned despite being proven champions. This game is going to be a tough one, as the Niners lost their easy path to staying home all playoffs long after losing to the Seahawks last week. I like the Eagles to figure things out and finally let Jalen Hurts and their wideouts take them home. Eagles 35, Whiners 23. 

To be fair...

the 49ers have had some awful injuries, in some ways similar to what the Packers have gone through this season, and maybe worse. Philly is not the same team as last year, but they did not collapse down the stretch the way they did a few years back after winning a Super Bowl. I do believe they could return this year. To do that, they need to win this weekend And I believe they will. Eagles 27, Niners 19.

Los Angeles Chargers (+3.5) vs. New England Patriots The Patriots did the proper thing when Mike Vrabel was stupidly let go by the Titans and brought him back to New England to rekindle some of that old school vibes. These Patriots aren't as hated as the Cheatriots of old, and the only strike against Drake Maye in my book is helping Phil Longo get enough credibility to get a job with the Badgers. The Chargers are stuck in the cycle of good enough to make the playoffs but not do anything. With the AFC being wide open, New England should like their chances, but I like the Chargers to break through. Even though Jim Harbaugh can't win on a level playing field. Chargers 11, Patriots 8. 

Vrabel vs. Harbaugh is a fair fight. The Chargers are pretty good. The Patriots are better. Patriots 24, Chargers 16.

Houston Texans (-3) vs. Pittsburgh Steelers Somehow, the Texans are not playing in the Saturday afternoon playoff game? Is nothing sacred in this world? The Steelers won their division last weekend on a crazy end of game sequence and I firmly believe that had the Ravens made that kick that Mike Tomlin would have been looking for work like John Harbaugh. It is nice to see Aaron back in the playoffs for the first time since he melted down in 2021 against the Niners. The Steelers haven't advanced in the playoffs since 2016 and that has been a big issue that the Yinzers have had with Tomlin. If Aaron can summon some of his old magic and the Steelers get enough splash plays from their highly paid defense, then I like the Steelers to win. Steelers 37, Texans 20. 

I hope this isn't the end for Aaron Rodgers, but I fear it will be. The Texans are a nasty group and while Rodgers is wily and will have DK Metcalf back, I think it's going to be too high a hill to climb. Texans 24, Steelers 13.

Enjoy your football this weekend. Ben out.

Benster and D Pick Your Games----Please Beat the Chiefs Edition

 I think that I speak for a lot of people when I say that I really hope someone beats the Chiefs. 

That does seem to be the prevailing sentiment. And it's one I share.

I'm also happy for Ryan Day. Look, I am far from a Buckeye fan. But seeing him get to stick it in the faces of those crazy Buckeye fans that sent death threats to him and his family after the Michigan game was pretty awesome. And it really confirms that the Big Ten has changed the narrative surrounding the SEC. You do love to see it. 

While it remains to be seen if it's going to be a long-term trend, I am certainly okay with Big Ten teams winning championships, although maybe it would be cool if it weren't the resident Death Stars once in a while. The most heartening thing was seeing Indiana finally get a moment in the sun.

I am feeling the HYYYYYYYYYYYPPEEEEEEE! and ready to pick some games. Watch me work. 

Washington Commanders (+6) vs. Philadelphia Eagles I wasn't shocked that the Commanders went into Detroit and ripped the soul out of the Lions. I do appreciate Brad giving me props for being right on the 45 points that Jayden Daniels put up. The Eagles are a very complete team and were able to shut down the Rams last week in bad weather. What I believe the key to this game is that the Commanders are playing with house money. Nobody had this team making the NFC title game, and all of the pressure is on the Eagles. I believe that Jalen Hurts is going to struggle a bit, and the Commanders are going to pull up another impressive road upset. I am getting some 2007 Giants vibes from the Commanders. Hail to the Commanders 26, Cry Eagles Cry 24.

That's an interesting comparison. I have to say that Jayden Daniels has surprised me. He's dynamic in all the right ways but he seems to have an advanced understanding of the game and rarely makes bad decisions. My concern with him will be injuries, because he plays in a style that leaves him susceptible to getting rocked by the ill-intentioned linebackers. Which brings us to the Eagles, who have guys like that on their squad. This game will turn on Washington's ability to slow down Saquon Barkley. Hey, bold observation, right? The Communards (or whatever we're calling them) do have have a stout defensive line, which helps. The Eagles are huge and wear teams down; that's what they did to the Packers and the Rams. It may be a more difficult assignment this time. Eagles 27, Community Notes 21.

Buffalo Bills (+2) vs. Kansas City Chiefs The Chiefs and Bills both were able to get past a couple of game opponents. I will admit that the Texans complaints about the zebras feel like an attempt to cover up that CJ Stroud and the Texan special teams really didn't rise to the occasion. That being said, Patrick Mahomes really seems to be going looking to draw a flag in the same manner as James Harden does. The Bills gutted out a tight win against the Ravens thanks to Lamar making a throw that needed to be a bit better. You still have to catch that if you were Mark Andrews, and now you know why I was disappointed with the results when I drafted him as my tight end in fantasy football. This Bills team feels different. It seems that Sean McDermott has decided to let Josh Allen really take the lead, and the Bills were able to beat the Chiefs straight up. This seems like the year that the Bills finally are able to have the breakthrough that they want. Something tells me that Tim Russert is going to be smiling in heaven Sunday night. Nobody Circles The Wagons Like The Buffalo Bills 42, Chiefs Fatigue 36.

The difference this year? Buffalo can run the ball when they need to. That makes a big difference. Josh Allen can take charge because he has options he didn't have before. Having said that, the Chiefs are different, too. This is not a high-flying offensive team, although they can score. The Chiefs win with defense and they have been doing it all season long. Buffalo will need to score early and score consistently to win this one. I don't see 42 points as being possible. 28? Maybe. And will that be enough? Buffalo 28, Kansas City 27.

And now, it's time to laugh at the Lions. All of this talk about how the Same Old Lions weren't back, and how you were going to win the Super Bowl. The problem -- this is the NFL, and nothing is promised. As a Packers fan, I know for a fact how hard it is to win a Super Bowl and this is the type of loss you don't recover from. Congrats on winning 15 games and not winning a playoff game. The bottom line is that Dan Campbell didn't learn a thing from the Niners meltdown. Calling a wide receiver pass when you were down was a bad call, and not knowing that there were 12 men on the field on that 4th down was coaching malpractice. You may know how to build a great culture, but the bottom line is that the Lions failed. Jared Goff ended up showing why the Rams got rid of him. He played horribly, and I honestly don't know where he goes from here. After laughing at the Packers and the Vikings, the Lions had the chance to back up all of the talk. They didn't. I got flashbacks to the 2021 disaster that my Packers had against the Niners. Now the Lions need to understand that things might go south without their coordinators. Instead of trying to run all of these cool trick plays from Madden, why don't you take a good look at if Dan Campbell can manage a game? Because at the end of the day, he didn't put his team in a position to win. Putting your team in a position to win is the most important thing about being a head coach. Like LaFleur and KOC, Campbell has to answer to that. 

I will be interested to see what happens. Campbell has delegated a lot of work to his coordinators, which on balance is a good approach, but he'll need individuals of similar quality to keep things humming in Detroit. The division is still going to be tough next year and if da Bears can find a way to overcome their bumbling ways, especially in the front office and ownership boxes, they could be trouble, too.

Enjoy your football this weekend. Ben out.