One week later

 As things were happening last week, I wrote a post below that is likely wrong. We know more now. Two things have become clear this week:

1) The local apparat really, really wants to this story to follow an evil MAGA narrative. Julie Nelson, the anchor on the 10 p.m. news on KARE, made a point to call Boelter's activities "politically motivated" every night this week in the opening of the broadcast. It's an assertion, a mantra, and you should not question it. Boelter's letter, to the extent we understand its content, alters the narrative that's being constructed.

2) There's a barely concealed battle going on between the acting U.S. Attorney, Joe Thompson, and Mary Moriarty, the Soros-backed HennCo prosecutor. Moriarty is in trouble because she's been letting criminals loose in the usual Soros style, but she really, really wants to prosecute Boelter. The feds are taking the lead, as they have in the past, because she's feckless. 

An example of how this dynamic has played out: the previous U.S. Attorney under Biden, Andrew Luger, was the guy who actually did the heavy lifting in prosecuting the massive Feeding Our Future fraud cases, in which politically connected Somalis and their friends stole millions of dollars by claiming to feed millions of meals to kids during COVID. The locals let this go on for years. Luger is a loyal Democrat, but he's of the old-school sort and he wasn't willing to countenance the open corruption of this arrangement. These stories are not openly discussed, because they reflect badly on Walz, Keith Ellison (who took meetings with the criminals) and others within the DFL apparat.

It would be unlikely in the extreme that Walz ever communicated to Boelter except in passing; the boards that Boelter served on were advisory and weren't especially political. Having said that, there were some fairly heavy hitters on the boards, including a longtime DFL power player named Myron Frans, who has been a bigwig at the University of Minnesota and was the guy who ran the state government management office under Walz and his predecessor, Mark Dayton. As far as I know, no one has asked Frans what he thought of Boelter and his role. We'd rather not know, apparently.

I don't believe in conspiracies. Boelter has, from what we know, had an, ahem, interesting career. I'd personally like to know more about his work in Africa and whether the USAID cuts affected what he was doing. He seems to have acquired a lot of weapons and although his financial issues have been discussed, he seemed to have enough money to own a big house in the country and a lot of material possessions. Maybe the answers and statements are incoherent, but at a minimum he's a deeply weird dude. I'd prefer to simply follow the story wherever it leads, but you can see the narrative construction team straining mightily at the moment. From that you can draw your own conclusions.

Welcome back my friends, to the Chauvin that never ends

 We're going to be starting the Derek Chauvin trial tomorrow and Minneapolis will again be in the spotlight. I haven't gone downtown much in recent months to see the fortifications for myself, but there's enough concertina wire and barricades up around the government center to stop much from happening at the place where the trial will take place. 

Tunnel of love

I don't know who the grandees are trying to protect, but this sort of fortification suggests an extraordinary level of fear. The trial is going to last for at least a few weeks and while there are certainly going to be all manner of protesters downtown, it's highly unlikely that anyone is going to breach the perimeter, but I also think the problems will be elsewhere in town. 

The problem for the local government is simple enough -- the optics of George Floyd's demise are both egregious and potentially incorrect. Although Keith Ellison and his merry band of prosecutors will never admit it publicly, they don't have an airtight case. It's quite possible Floyd was already a dead man by the time Chauvin got to the scene. He had a lot of fentanyl in his system at the time of death, quite possibly a lethal dose. His defense team will certainly present evidence to that effect to the jury. 

I sincerely hope Ellison and his team have an answer prepared. If not, someone may end up on the business end of that concertina wire.

Anyone heard?

I was wondering how that investigation of Keith Ellison is going. Although I suspect the real question is where it's going.

Drizzle

Not really a lightning round. Just a few random things:

• So the DFL is going to try to brazen it out on Ellison. They'd better hope Karen Monahan doesn't have a tape. I expect Tina Smith and maybe even the never-to-be-challenged Amy Klobuchar will get to answer a lot of questions in the coming days. The DFL will have a chance to do some message testing at the State Fair and if it breaks badly, you may yet see some maneuvering.
• We're getting ready to travel again, as Fearless Maria will begin studies at Saint Louis University next week. SLU has been in the news lately because it will be the first school to put an Amazon Echo Dot in every residence hall room. Is it Big Brother? Is it necessary? I'm guessing students will use the devices here and there, but it would not surprise me at all if most of them are unplugged and thrown in a desk drawer before too long. It's not particularly difficult to get information from other sources, so I'm guessing it won't be a big factor in FM's life.
• I get the sense that our favorite president (he says so himself) is about to flip the chessboard on the Russia game. That September 1 deadline his attorneys gave Robert Mueller has a larger meaning, I suspect. It could get interesting.
• The NFL has to figure out their rules about hitting the quarterback. My stance on the Anthony Barr hit on Aaron Rodgers was that it wasn't illegal, but it was unnecessary. The penalty called on Vikings linebacker Antwione Williams in Saturday's preseason game was frankly bizarre. Either you get to tackle the quarterback, or you don't, especially if he still has the ball. 

Ellison in the spotlight

Keith Ellison may be about to get Torricellied:

“I was listening to my podcast and he walked in, he said, ‘I need you to take the trash out.’ And I kept, I was on my stomach, I heard him and I … shook my head [in acknowledgement]. And he looked at me [and] goes, ‘Hey! You f—— hear me?’ And then he looked at me, he goes, ‘B—-, get the f— out of my house!’ and he started trying to drag me off the bed. That’s when I put my camera on to video him,” Monahan said.

That's Karen Monahan, the former girlfriend of Ellison, looking right at the camera. And there's more:

The two broke up, but Monahan claims they met before he announced his attorney general run in June. He was allegedly concerned she would go public about the incident that she says happened in 2016.

“At this point in time, I’m grounded and I know who I am. I have healed for a year and a half. I looked straight at him, I said, ‘I never ruined your career, I didn’t choose to do the things you did, I didn’t choose for you to drag me off the bed, call me a b—-, tell me you hate me. I didn’t choose that,'” Monahan said.

She has chosen to come forward and tell her story, and the DFL apparat is nervous:

With just 82 days left until the November election, DFL party leaders say they are still looking for answers from their candidate.

“The DFL party takes any allegation of domestic abuse seriously. It’s a fluid situation, it’s still developing,” said Minnesota DFL party chair Ken Martin. “We believe that Keith Ellison should answer the questions that have been posed to him, and he should address those questions head on.”

It's worth remembering there are earlier allegations against Ellison from another woman. Could a third woman be out there? If so, that would be the end of him.

The DFL has held the AG's office for over 50 years. Ellison could lose the election and damage the entire ticket. Do you think Tim Walz wants to spend his time talking about Ellison? How about Tina Smith? Watch what happens at the DFL central committee meeting this weekend.

The obligatory recap

So what happened yesterday? A few thoughts:

• I was surprised Jeff Johnson won, but in retrospect I should have seen his victory over Tim Pawlenty coming a mile away. Johnson was the GOP nominee in 2014, so he's hardly a newcomer. Pawlenty had a lot of money behind him, but little rationale behind his campaign. In important respects, the dynamic was the same as what happened to Tommy Thompson when he lost to Tammy Baldwin in the senate race in Wisconsin in 2012; the brand name is rarely enough and the politician with the name still has to make the sale. The business about Pawlenty's dissing of Trump was a factor, but Pawlenty's evident disdain in dealing with the state party (he blew off the nominating process and the convention) was far more important. Johnson has been campaigning hard all year. The party activists were out in force and they voted for Johnson. Other than an ad attacking Johnson, Pawlenty was barely visible. Pawlenty thought he was invincible. Guess not.
• On the DFL side, Tim Walz will be hard to beat. He has a dozen years of experience pretending to be a moderate and he'll tack to the center now that he has the DFL nomination, but operationally he's no different than Erin Murphy. Johnson's task will be to demonstrate that Walz is a phony. As for Lori Swanson, good riddance. We can also hope that Mike Hatch, the éminence grise behind Swanson, is finally gone as well.
• I wonder how Alliance for a Better Minnesota is going to play things now. They were clearly planning to carpet-bomb T-Paw, but he's gone. Let's see what the big brains do.
• Keith Ellison is a dumpster fire, but he won the Attorney General's race easily. Can he make the sale statewide? I suspect Doug Wardlow, the GOP nominee, will get some help. Ellison is a deeply corrupt individual and the notion that he should be attorney general is preposterous, but those three letters after his name carry a lot of weight.
• Ilhan Omar is a fraud, too, but she's almost certainly going to Congress. The good news is she'll be a nonentity backbencher. Betty McCollum will save a seat for her.

Game on!

In case you'd forgotten

The message from Keith Ellison? MeToo, but not me. But Pepperidge Farm remembers:

On Wednesday afternoon, another of Franken’s Minnesota congressional colleagues, Rep. Betty McCollum, said the growing number of allegations make it “impossible for him to be an effective senator for Minnesota.” Rep. Keith Ellison also called for Franken to resign.

That was December 6, 2017. Now?

Minnesota Rep. Keith Ellison on Sunday denied an allegation from an ex-girlfriend that he had once dragged her off a bed while screaming obscenities at her — an allegation that came just days before a Tuesday primary in which the congressman is among several Democrats running for state attorney general.

The allegation first surfaced Saturday night from Karen Monahan after her son alleged in a Facebook post that he had seen hundreds of angry text messages from Ellison, some threatening his mother. He also wrote he had viewed a video in which Ellison dragged Monahan off the bed by her feet. Monahan, a Minneapolis political organizer, said via Twitter that what her son posted was "true."

Question for the audience -- should Franken call for Ellison to step down?

More fun than a screen door on a submarine

Keith Ellison gets blown up on the eve of his election:

Rep. Keith Ellison, who is currently running for attorney general of Minnesota, is being accused of domestic violence against his former partner Karen Monahan.

Austin Monahan, Karen Monahan’s son, aired the allegations in a Facebook post Saturday night. According to Austin Monahan, Ellison put his mother through “pure hell.” In the Facebook post, he claims to have seen a video of Ellison dragging Karen Monahan off the bed by her feet while screaming expletives at her. The alleged incident is just one of several, Austin Monahan warned.

That report is from Alpha News, a right-leaning website. The rest of the local media is trying to protect precious, of course. But it might not work. Karen Monahan has been hinting at Ellison's issues for quite a long time now.

Hmmm.

No, it's not going away

We have early voting in Minnesota. It's safe to assume ol' Keith has a lot of early votes in the bank, but will it be enough? Tomorrow should be even more fun. And no, we haven't forgotten about Lori Swanson's problems, either.

(Less than) One week out -- Attorney General

While the governor is ultimately more consequential, the attorney general of a state has a lot of power. The incumbent AG, Lori Swanson, lost her endorsement at the DFL convention and decided instead to run for governor. That opened up the door for a bunch of candidates on the DFL side. Of this group, the most prominent is Rep. Keith Ellison, who is giving up his seat in Congress to run for the office. Nearly everyone on the right worries about Ellison, but many do for the wrong reason. Ellison is a Muslim, so some think he'd try to impose sharia law or something like that. That's silly, of course. We have over a decade of evidence to weigh Ellison and it's pretty clear -- the only thing Ellison wants to impose on the people is, well, Keith Ellison. And that is reason enough to oppose him. His dim identity politics and Farrakhan footsie are simply tools in his quest for self-aggrandizement. He wants out of Washington because he couldn't be the big kahuna at the Democratic National Committee. If he can control the power of a state attorney general's office, he can indulge his impulses, including harassing Donald Trump. And he may get his wish.

The other candidates in the field include the guy who won the DFL endorsement, political newcomer Matt Pelikan. Pelikan is a straight-up SJW type and could finish last, because there's no compelling reason for his candidacy. Tom Foley was once the Ramsey County Attorney but hasn't been active in politics for nearly 25 years now, making him well past his sell-by date. Mike Rothman and Debra Hillstrom both come from the more moderate wing of the DFL and would likely conduct themselves in office similar to the way Swanson and her predecessor, Mike Hatch, ran the show. Rothman was Mark Dayton's commerce commissioner and he got an endorsement from the Star Tribune, but he's almost a complete unknown. Hillstrom has been in the Lege for nearly 20 years and has also been a prosecutor in Anoka County. She'd probably do the least harm of the five, but she's not going to beat Ellison in a primary where the key advantage is name recognition. Advantage: Ellison.

On the Republican side, the endorsed candidate is Doug Wardlow, who served one term in the Lege and has subsequently been mostly in private practice. He's a typical Republican candidate -- rock solid on understanding the role of government and more interested in protecting the citizenry than in mounting noisy crusades. He would be great. Wardlow first has to fight off the surprise candidacy of Bob Lessard, who was a big wheel DFLer on the Iron Range since the beginning of the Pleistocene Epoch. Lessard is a big outdoorsman/conservationist and well-known in the state, but is remembered mostly by people who are approaching retirement age. People who know who Lessard is will also know he's not actually a Republican, so in the end I suspect Wardlow will win the primary. It will be interesting to see if any of the big money comes into Minnesota to support his candidacy, especially if Ellison gets the DFL nod. Stay tuned.

Back from SLU

We are back from our visit to St. Louis. Since we're catching up, let's drop a few bullets:

• Saint Louis University (SLU) has a lot of resources, including an endowment of over a billion dollars. That gives SLU a competitive advantage over many of its usual competitors. Money in and of itself doesn't guarantee successful outcomes for students, but it makes a big difference in things like physical plant and opportunities for overseas programs. 
• The city of St. Louis has a lot of issues, but the campus area is pretty nice. It sits a few miles to the west of the downtown area and immediately to the west of the SLU campus is the Central West End neighborhood, which reminded Mrs. D and I of the nicer sections of Chicago. Forest Park, a mile to the west of SLU, is a magnificent urban park that's more like Central Park in New York than anything here, although Como Park in St. Paul has some similarities. It looks like a good place to spend four years.
• Turning to politics, I have a question -- if you commit a crime in this country, are convicted, and are sentenced to prison, what happens to your children? Depending on your circumstances, a lot of things could happen. Your kids may end up living with your spouse, grandparents, other family. They could end up in foster care. One thing is certain -- they will be separated from you. Is that cruel? Sure, but it's one of many reasons you shouldn't get sent to prison. What's happening at the border now means parents are getting separated from their children. That's cruel, too. But it's also predictable. If anyone you know is shrieking "this is not what we are" on social media, they're not telling you the truth, or they're dumb.
• It sure seems like people in the DFL are in a hurry to send Ilhan Omar to Congress to replace Keith Ellison, Wonder why.
• We saw Incredibles 2 yesterday. I recommend it. It's not as flat-out brilliant as the original movie, but it's full of fun and it has some interesting things to say about our current world, especially social media. But to say too much would lead to spoilers, so I won't do that. Worth your time, for sure.

Calliope, Part Three -- Minnesota CD5

When incumbent Keith Ellison jumped into the race for attorney general, that meant there would be a free-for-all for his seat in Congress. In my mind, this race becomes the most interesting race of this cycle, because it will tell us a lot about where the metro DFL really is these days.

If the DFL is still sane, Margaret Anderson Kelliher will be the obvious choice. The former speaker of the Minnesota House and 2010 endorsed DFL candidate for governor, Kelliher is a reliable liberal but. . . how do I put this? She's a recognizable political type, the earnest liberal who is willing to talk with conservatives. She would represent CD5 much in the way Ellison's predecessor, Martin Olav Sabo, once did. Kelliher is about the best one could expect out of the district. But she has plenty of competitors. Patricia Torres Ray has been in the state Senate for a dozen years now and hasn't done a lot to make a difference there, but she'd not embarrass anyone. Then there are two candidates who represent the two sides of Ellison. Ilhan Omar, a Somali immigrant with an, ahem, interesting past,  was just elected to the House in the last cycle. She seems to have a lot of push behind her candidacy, as she carries Gov. Mark Dayton's endorsement. Then there's state Senator Bobby Joe Champion, an Ellison protege with a trail of ethics investigations in his past, along with two other minor candidates. On the Republican side, there are candidates, including the endorsed candidate Jennifer Zielinski, but Republicans aren't going to win CD5.

So what happens? The motivated group wins. Kelliher would be the smart choice for the district and for Minnesota, but I would not be surprised if Omar wins. Advantage -- Margaret Anderson Kelliher.

Calliope, Part Two -- The Race for Attorney General

While the race for governor is certainly the most consequential of this election cycle, the attorney general matters quite a lot, too. And it's going to be interesting now that Lori Swanson has decided to run for governor.

The big fish on the DFL side is Keith Ellison, who has been in Congress for six terms and until recently served as vice-chair of the Democratic National Committee. The term "problematic" is overused, but that's Ellison. He's never quite gotten around to disavowing his previous support of Louis Farrakhan and he's mostly gotten by with a compliant local press burying his misdeeds. A guy who likes to skirt the law ought not be Attorney General, but he has to be the favorite, even though there are plausible alternatives. The endorsed DFL candidate, Matt Pelikan, has no chance, despite the value of the endorsement. He's a DFL activist from Northfield who was able to run Swanson off by trashing her intermittent support for gun rights and by being more woke generally, but he's a silly candidate in every other respect. There are also three other plausible candidates on the DFL side, including Rep. Debra Hillstrom of Brooklyn Center, who is an Anoka County prosecutor for her day job. Hillstrom would likely perform in office like Swanson has; if you have to have a DFLer in the position, she'd be competent. Another candidate, Mike Rothman, served as commissioner of the Minnesota Department of Commerce. He's a bright guy but he's coming out of the bureaucracy and it's not clear he has the presence to get past the other candidates. Also in the race is Tom Foley, who was Ramsey County Attorney years ago. He could certainly do the job, but he's getting long in the tooth. Ellison has to be the favorite, but he'd be a disastrous pick for the job. It would have been better if Rothman and Foley had dropped out, leaving Hillstrom to run, but that didn't happen. Advantage: Keith Ellison.

On the Republican side, the endorsed candidate is Doug Wardlow, who served one term in the Minnesota legislature. In an ordinary year, he'd be the latest Republican sacrificial lamb, but he might have a chance, particularly if Ellison is the candidate for the DFL. Wardlow is a bright guy and a solid conservative; if he could win, he'd be great. Just before the filing deadline, Wardlow got a challenger, the longtime state senator from International Falls, Bob Lessard. Lessard is a legend, but he's a legend because he's 87 years old. While I have great respect for his service to the state, he's past his sell-by date by at least 15 years. Advantage: Doug Wardlow.

We'll look at some more races in the coming days.

Mene Mene Franken Upharsin

At the moment, Al Franken is calling reports that he is going to resign tomorrow premature, but he's gone and he knows it. You can't have half your caucus calling for you to resign and then expect to survive. He has been weighed and found wanting in the court of public opinion, and his continued presence in the Senate complicates the efforts of his party to keep the heat on Roy Moore. If Chuck Schumer wants Franken out, he'll be out. And Schumer wants him out.

So that means Mark Dayton will be appointing a successor. The Star Tribune believes Lt. Gov. Tina Flint "Abbatoir" Smith, former Planned Parenthood honcho, will get the nod as a caretaker and that a full-on raging battle for the seat will take place in the fall 2018 special election to fill the seat for the remaining two years of Franken's term. The notion is Smith will not be interested in staying in Washington. Are we sure of that? It's pretty nice in D.C. and I'm sure Planned Parenthood would love to have their own personal senator, beyond the 48 or so they already have.

So let's handicap the field:

Tina Flint Smith. Whether she'd want to stay or not, she'd be a completely loyal soldier for Schumer. She also would not likely get in the way of Amy Klobuchar's ambitions. I think there's a strong chance she'd get the nod.

Lori Swanson. Currently the attorney general, she's better at making waves and offering soundbites than Smith, but her prosecutor profile is perhaps a little too close to Klobuchar's for Amy's comfort. However, if Dayton wants to reward Swanson for her hard work as a DFL apparatchik by giving her a head start, this could happen.

Keith Ellison. Some of the more excitable conservative commentators think Ellison would be the pick, but I don't see it. I seriously doubt he could win a statewide election, and there have been enough rumors about his zipper issues over the years that he could get the same treatment Franken has received. He's reached his career apex as the congressman for CD-5 and he's smart enough to know it.

Betty McCollum. She's stayed in Washington for nearly 20 years by living inside the lapel pocket of Nancy Pelosi. If McCollum ran for statewide office, she'd have to speak. That wouldn't go well for her. No chance.

Ilhan Omar. The DFL has high hopes for her, but she's not ready. And Scott Johnson has a few questions for her that she's never really answered.

Chris Coleman. The outgoing St. Paul mayor, who wants Mark Dayton's job, but Tim Walz is standing in the way. I could see Coleman making the switch from the governor's race and take a shot at the seat in 2018, especially if Smith gets the nod and does not run. It's also possible for Walz to decide he'd rather run for the Senate, but I think he'll have a better chance running for governor.

John Choi. A darkhorse. Currently the Ramsey County attorney, he's been less overtly partisan than some of the other county attorneys and he's been generally successful in navigating a couple of high-profile cases, especially involving the scandals at the Archdiocese. He didn't get Jeronimo Yanez convicted, but sending a cop to jail is awfully tough to do. He could get the seat and hold it for 30 years.

Who do you think will get the nod? Cast your vote in the comments section!