Where are we?

No facts presented in this feature -- let's face it, in 2018 politics, facts are difficult to get. Opinions are everywhere, though. Here are mine:

• I suspect the long knives will be out for Keith Ellison after this election. I've never thought he could win statewide office and his campaign for attorney general has demonstrated that nicely. The larger question is whether or not he'll hurt the other DFL candidates. Doug Wardlow could be a very useful fellow in the AG's office.
• While it would be wonderful if Jeff Johnson could pull of the upset and win the governor's race, my guess is he falls short. Tim Walz is not a particularly strong candidate and nothing about him suggests he'll be any good at being a governor, but the DFL machine in the metro will likely be enough to get him elected. 
• You know what would give us a better Minnesota? The demise of Alliance for a Better Minnesota, that's what. Their latest attack ad, in which they exploit a handicapped young man, is beyond the pale. Every ad they run is filled with lies and yet somehow KSTP's "Truth Test" and WCCO's "Reality Check" never get around to vetting them. Wonder why that is? No, you don't, because you know the reason why already.
• Lately some Wisconsin ads have been airing here. The Dem candidate for governor, Tony Evers, has the personality of lint and is frankly creepy, but he's running neck and neck with two-term Scott Walker, one of the most consequential politicians of his generation. I know that people get fatigued with politicians over time, but it's astonishing to me that Evers is even close.
• Amy Klobuchar, Tina Smith, and Tammy Baldwin are all up for election. They are all dismal, but all are likely to return to Washington. There's a chance that Karin Housley might beat Smith, who has never won a statewide election, but I'm not confident that Housley will get there.
• We may flip four Congressional seats in Minnesota. It's almost certain that Pete Stauber is going to Washington in the 8th, and it's quite possible that Jim Hagedorn is finally going to get elected in the 1st. But it's also looking likely that Erik Paulsen is going down in the 3rd, and Jason Lewis will be fortunate if he is reelected in the 2nd. I knew Paulsen a little bit when we worked together at Target and he's a good guy, but he's run a poor campaign against Dean Phillips, who has more money than King Canute and came up with a good shtick. Lewis went to Washington and actually did some useful things, but his district is turning left and the odious Angie Craig has an excellent chance to beat Lewis. If Lewis loses, we'll miss him more than most people realize.

What do you think?

The obligatory recap

So what happened yesterday? A few thoughts:

• I was surprised Jeff Johnson won, but in retrospect I should have seen his victory over Tim Pawlenty coming a mile away. Johnson was the GOP nominee in 2014, so he's hardly a newcomer. Pawlenty had a lot of money behind him, but little rationale behind his campaign. In important respects, the dynamic was the same as what happened to Tommy Thompson when he lost to Tammy Baldwin in the senate race in Wisconsin in 2012; the brand name is rarely enough and the politician with the name still has to make the sale. The business about Pawlenty's dissing of Trump was a factor, but Pawlenty's evident disdain in dealing with the state party (he blew off the nominating process and the convention) was far more important. Johnson has been campaigning hard all year. The party activists were out in force and they voted for Johnson. Other than an ad attacking Johnson, Pawlenty was barely visible. Pawlenty thought he was invincible. Guess not.
• On the DFL side, Tim Walz will be hard to beat. He has a dozen years of experience pretending to be a moderate and he'll tack to the center now that he has the DFL nomination, but operationally he's no different than Erin Murphy. Johnson's task will be to demonstrate that Walz is a phony. As for Lori Swanson, good riddance. We can also hope that Mike Hatch, the éminence grise behind Swanson, is finally gone as well.
• I wonder how Alliance for a Better Minnesota is going to play things now. They were clearly planning to carpet-bomb T-Paw, but he's gone. Let's see what the big brains do.
• Keith Ellison is a dumpster fire, but he won the Attorney General's race easily. Can he make the sale statewide? I suspect Doug Wardlow, the GOP nominee, will get some help. Ellison is a deeply corrupt individual and the notion that he should be attorney general is preposterous, but those three letters after his name carry a lot of weight.
• Ilhan Omar is a fraud, too, but she's almost certainly going to Congress. The good news is she'll be a nonentity backbencher. Betty McCollum will save a seat for her.

Game on!

One week out

Primaries are next week in Minnesota. I haven't written about them yet. Probably should. Quick synopsis, starting with the governor's race:

Governor: I'm not particularly impressed with any of the DFL candidates, but it may not matter because this election is shaping up as a test of the overall strength of the DFL machine and its support system, especially Education Minnesota and the Alliance for a Better Minnesota. If you've been watching the ads on television, most of the portside messaging is attacking Tim Pawlenty, who apparently was governor a long time ago, maybe succeeding Karl Rolvaag, but one can't be sure. I would guess Tim Walz will prevail, but there's very little to recommend him. He has spent six terms in Washington as a backbencher, but he's less frightening than Betty McCollum, so he has the institutional support. Lori Swanson must be gaining, because there was a big hit piece in the Intercept about her. This is largely being ignored in the local media, of course, but I suspect Walz will make use of it in the next week. The earlier attacks on Swanson's running mate, crusty old Rick Nolan, were designed to help the endorsed DFL candidates, Erin Murphy and Erin Maye Quade, who appear to be running a distant third, despite (or perhaps because of) the DFL endorsement. The Erins are a little loony, frankly, and while they carry the DFL endorsement, the party apparat would prefer Walz or Swanson sotto voce, because they (theoretically) wouldn't get destroyed on the Iron Range. The best news about this lineup is Walz giving up his congressional seat, which should be good pickup possibility for the Republicans in November. Advantage: Walz, for no particular reason.

On the Republican side, we have Jeff Johnson, who I personally like quite a lot, against the aforementioned Pawlenty. Pawlenty is probably going to win, but Johnson, who got chloroformed by Mark Dayton in the 2014 election, is giving it a go despite an obvious lack of resources. Pawlenty wasn't a terrible governor, but I'm not sure he deserves another go. Either of these two fellows would be a big improvement over Mark Dayton or the collection of nasties on the other side, but I'm not sure either has what it takes to win an election when ABM and the teacher's union are done with them. Johnson is trying to get nastier, but I'm not sure he's going to be tough enough to stand up to the onslaught. If Pawlenty wins, he'll have all the money he needs, but he'll have a muddled message and an indifferent record to defend, making him the de facto embattled incumbent. Pawlenty barely won in 2006 over the sputtering Mike Hatch, who didn't have the trained assassins of ABM working for him. If Johnson prevails, I'm guessing the big money folks behind T-Paw will take their bankrolls and go home. Advantage: Pawlenty.

Next: Attorney General.

Calliope -- the Race for Governor

We're back from celebrating graduation ceremonies for Benster and Fearless Maria. These were joyful events and we're all proud of their accomplishments. It was also good to get away from writing about politics for a few days.

As we left town for Benster's graduation, the nominating conventions for the DFL and the Republicans took place. As it happens, a party endorsement doesn't mean much these days, as we're clearly headed for primaries in most races. And it's going to be a circus. I'm going to run the races down, but it's going to take multiple posts. We'll start with the governor's race:

Governor: On the Republican side, no surprises. Jeff Johnson, who is a very nice man, won the endorsement over what turned out to be token opposition. His actual opponent is former governor Tim Pawlenty, who is back in the game after making his pile in the lobbying biz. No one in the party really likes Pawlenty, but he's won statewide office twice, a claim no other active Republican can make, and he's got more financial backing than King Canute. I've met Jeff Johnson and, as I said, he's a very nice man. But Mark Dayton kicked his butt in 2014 and there's no evidence Johnson is any more formidable now than he was four years ago. Advantage: Tim Pawlenty.

Meanwhile, the DFL race is going to be entertaining as hell. Somehow Tim Walz, who had all the advantages going in, lost the endorsement to Erin Murphy, a gun grabbing state rep who was Majority Leader of the House at one point. She picked another gun-grabbing Erin, the publicity-hungry state rep Erin Maye Quade, as her running mate. Meanwhile, Walz, who gave up his seat in Congress to run for governor, finds himself in a tough spot, because the outstate support he was counting on may not be forthcoming, since he had to go all-in with the gun grabbers to seek the nomination. And to make it even more amusing, Attorney General Lori Swanson threw her hat into the ring after she lost her AG endorsement to something called Matt Pelikan. Swanson has the charisma of lint, but she's a cagey operator and made a smart pick for a running mate in Rick Nolan, the crusty old congressman who is retiring from CD-8. There's a significant advantage in having the endorsement for Murphy/Quade, but they will be a hard sell anywhere outside of the 494/694 loop. From what I can tell, Walz is screwed -- he's not going to get enough votes from the activists to get through. If the DFL were smart, they'd probably pick Swanson, but I'm guessing they'll be erring with the Erins. Advantage: Erin Murphy.

I expect we'll be hearing a lot about guns in the general election. The gun grabbers have been highly visible in the run-up to the election, but there are a lot of Second Amendment stalwarts in this state, as former DFL candidates such as Mike Hatch discovered to their pain. I also expect we'll hear a lot about the bizarre and petulant performance of outgoing governor Mark Dayton in the election. Dayton is not on the ballot, but his crazytown performance in office over the last two years is going to be a problem for the DFL, especially outside the 494/694 loop. There will be significant appetite not to reward the DFL for their perfidy, but Pawlenty has a lot of baggage. It's going to get interesting, and certainly it's going to be expensive.