That's Really Super, Super Tuesday

I didn't go to the caucuses on Tuesday, but I didn't need to. Plenty of other people did and in Minnesota, it appears that Marco Rubio and Bernie Sanders won. Here's a screen shot from the Secretary of State's office:

A disappointing night for Rocque "Rocky" De La Fuente

The most interesting number is the one you need to compile, which is the total number of voters for each party. In this caucus, more Republicans cast ballots than Democrats. In Minnesota, that's significant. And it also appears that this turnout wasn't a Jesse Ventura-like moment, since Trump finished a distant third.

Marco Rubio won the vote, but it doesn't mean he won outright. According to the latest numbers, here is the delegate count for Minnesota:

A win, but not a win

Ted Cruz, by finishing second, nets the same number of delegates, at least for the moment. It appears that six additional delegates are not yet accounted for; perhaps they will go to Rubio.

The upshot is this -- nice result for Rubio here, but otherwise, in nearly every other place, he got his ass kicked last night. And while Ted Cruz ended up winning three states, it's difficult to say he had a good night, either. The winner last night was the Donald and there's no point trying to spin it any other way.

On the other side of the aisle, Bernie Sanders dominated here, but it doesn't matter much, because Hillary Clinton won big most everywhere else. So where are we at?

• Trump doesn't have things wrapped up yet, but he's definitely closer to that goal now. Cruz needed to win more states last night than he did and it's difficult to see where Marco Rubio is going to win next. Barring a deus ex machina moment, Trump is likely to be the GOP nominee.
• Hillary is winning, but she's laboring to get it done. Every time I see her on television, she just looks like hell. I also don't see much enthusiasm for what she's selling, either.
• We're now in the game theory portion of the contest. Carson and Kasich probably should go home now, although they'll probably stay in for a little while longer. The question at this point is who will be the last Republican standing? The GOPe hates Cruz, but would they really be willing to let The Donald take over the party by shunning Cruz? Grab that microphone, Lindsey Graham:

Former presidential candidate and South Carolina Sen. Lindsey Graham said Tuesday Republicans might have to support Texas Sen. Ted Cruz in order to stop Donald Trump from winning the nomination—just days after he joked about killing Cruz on the floor of the Senate.

“Ted Cruz is not my favorite by any means, and I don’t wish him ill—I was making a joke about Ted—but we may be in a position where we have to rally around Ted Cruz as the only way to stop Donald Trump, and I’m not so sure that would work,” Graham told CBS, as Trump solidified his position as frontrunner with a string of Super Tuesday victories.

Asked to confirm if he would rather support Cruz than see a Trump nomination, Graham laughed. “I can’t believe I would say yes, but yes,” he said.

• Ever the comedian, that Lindsey Graham.
• One last aside -- the "Donald Drumpf" joke is lame, lame, lame. He's never had that name, since it was his parents who changed the family surname. I understand that people hated hearing Trump making fun of the sainted Jon Stewart for changing his name, because one must never speak ill of Stewart, but come on, man. We can do better than that. And I'm sure we will.

Poetry reading

I didn't watch the debate last night because I was attending a poetry reading in the artsy part of Nordeast and then had to give one of my poet pals a ride back downtown, then pick up Fearless Maria from drumline practice. In between all that, I heard some of the debate on the radio, which is a far different experience than watching it. If you can't see the faces and the gestures, you are left with the words and not the images. So as I worked my way from 6th and Hennepin back to the high school, my impression of what I heard was as follows:

• It was clear that Marco Rubio was trying to get a few blows in on The Donald, and if you are amenable to his campaign, you might believe he succeeded. Listening on the radio, he sounded a little like Fozzie Bear, trying to milk the punchlines every time he uncorked one. It's useful to take the attack to the Donald, but I wonder whether it worked.
• Ted Cruz is Ted Cruz. He's the smartest guy on the stage, but he's not going to win. You don't pick up the smarm when you hear him on the radio, but that doesn't help him when most people are watching on television.
• Ben Carson isn't going to win, either, and as usual he was complaining about not getting a chance to speak. The most interesting thing he said was that he was on the business end of an IRS audit, but only after he spoke at the National Prayer Breakfast and was critical of the current occupant. If that's true, it's a huge story.
• In re John Kasich, here's the definitive verdict:



Mmmm... ramen

As for The Donald, well:

Yuuuge

Again, when you listen on the radio you don't get the whole picture, but it was striking how utterly vacuous he sounds when all you are experiencing is the voice. A lot of the bully boy crap he engages in is particularly gratuitous; really, what does slagging Hugh Hewitt about his ratings accomplish? Everyone else is a choke artist and a liar. You'd think he'd just dispense with the pretense, go full Rickles and call Cruz a hockey puck, which would be as effective an insult and ring the Canada bell at the same time.

Does any of it move the needle? Probably not. Trump is probably going to be the nominee and there's a decent chance he'll be the next POTUS. We wanted Ronald Reagan and we're gonna get Leo Gorcey instead.

Fear and loathing in the comment section

Marco's coming -- hide your heart, girl.

One thing I've noticed about the campaign is how maniacal some supporters of Donald Trump are. I've been referring to the work of Eric Hoffer in describing what I'm seeing, because there has been evidence of a cult of personality forming around the guy.

Now that the first votes have been cast, it seems like some of the Trump fans are already starting to panic, especially since they can see the hated GOPe (GOP establishment, for those of you who aren't hip to the lingo) might be coalescing around Marco Rubio. Here is a representative comment I saw last night over at HotAir:

I told you Cruz fans. Now Rubio is going to take this race. Well done, anti Trump protest voters, in your fervor to fellate your Jesus and denigrate Trump, you handed the keys to little Marco.

xxxxxx on February 3, 2016 at 9:11 PM

I found that amusing, so I did something I rarely do -- I engaged this guy:

Maybe Trump could make a better argument than the one Rubio is making. Worth a shot, right? Trump’s still leading, right? If Trump has the stuff to win, what the Cruz fans do shouldn’t matter, right?

Mr. D on February 3, 2016 at 9:18 PM

The panicked Trump fan didn't like that:

Wrong. Cruz has always been the protest vote against Trump. Rubio will clean Cruz’s clock now that Rush is behind him and because he outdebates TV Teddy every time they get on stage. Just remember I said it. If they take out Trump, Rubio’s your nominee.

xxxxxx on February 3, 2016 at 9:19 PM

Heh. So I gave the schlub another chance:

Then maybe Trump should handle Rubio first. One way or another, Trump, and by extension his supporters, need to make up their minds on this one. Drop the whoa is me crap and win! If Trump is going to be president, he’s going to need to beat both Cruz and Rubio, and then beat whatever fugitive from Madame Tussauds that the Democrats run against him. There are no short cuts.

Mr. D on February 3, 2016 at 9:28 PM

His response was hilarious:

The only way this works is if Trump and Cruz gang up on Rubio. They should hatch a deal, let the best man win but first get Rubio out of there.

xxxxxx on February 3, 2016 at 9:30 PM

Hatch a deal with the guy who stole Iowa? After all, that's what Trump was saying yesterday:

Donald Trump on Wednesday accused Sen. Ted Cruz of stealing the Iowa caucuses, calling for either new voting there or the results to be nullified.

Meanwhile, Ben Carson hit CNN for what he said was an inaccurate report that he was leaving the race on Monday, even though the network only reported that he was heading home to Florida for a short break after the caucuses.

"Based on the fraud committed by Senator Ted Cruz during the Iowa Caucus, either a new election should take place or Cruz results nullified," Donald Trump wrote a Twitter, one of a series of Tweets attacking Cruz and questioning the outcome of the Iowa caucuses.

The "fraud" in question was that Cruz operatives took the CNN report and emailed it out to their field representatives just as the caucuses were beginning, with an additional suggestion that they share the news and see if they could flip Carson supporters to Cruz. That's not cheating -- that's smart politics. There's no evidence that this gambit was even successful, but never mind that. It couldn't be that Cruz did the hard work of finding and motivating people to come to the caucus. It couldn't have been that the polls were somehow wrong, or that national polling doesn't necessarily tell you what's happening from place to place. It couldn't be that Trump's bluster might have motivated people to vote against him.

So anyway, I had to give the panicked Trump supporter another dig:

Fine, then Trump should do that. If that’s the solution, maybe he should stop talking about Iowa and look ahead. That’s allowed.

Mr. D on February 3, 2016 at 9:34 PM

He didn't respond to that, and it's just as well. Generally, I find a lot of Trump supporters tiresome. I do understand the reason for panic. A big part of the Trump theory of the race is that he's winning everywhere and that he's inevitable for that reason. As it turns out, he might not be inevitable. At this point, no one is inevitable. So now Trump will have to convince people that he has a plan and an agenda for how he intends to execute his plan. Argument by assertion is not going to carry the day.

On to New Hampshire

Doubt my wisdom is much different than the conventional wisdom, but here goes:

Go home, folks. Mike Huckabee has suspended his campaign, and good riddance. He can go back to selling patent medicines or whatever it is he does in between campaigns. Rick Santorum isn't going to be president in any world we know. Jim Gilmore barely made it onto the stage. The only candidate in the bottom tier that I really liked is Carly Fiorina, but in the end she wasn't able to turn early momentum into something sustainable. I suspect we'll be hearing from her again, but as a surrogate for one of the other candidates.

Big Christie vs. Karate Kasich. These two candidates got bupkis in Iowa, but both have a chance to keep their campaigns going in New Hampshire. Only one will survive. Of the two, I'd pick Christie, but in the long run he's really running for Attorney General. Kasich has gotten endorsements from approximately 4,387 publications in New Hampshire, but it's difficult to see a path forward for him unless he wins New Hampshire outright, which isn't likely to happen.

It's my turn! Jeb Bush has enough money to keep going all the way to the convention, but he really ought to go home. He's not going to overtake his protege turned nemesis Marco Rubio. Deep down, I suspect he knows this, but I don't think he'll go away quietly or graciously. Too bad, really.

Voices heard, but not heeded. Rand Paul did get a delegate, but that's about all he got. He's not going to make it and probably should start tending to his campaign to return to the Senate. Depending on what happens in the next four years, he may have another opening later on. Ben Carson is a wonderful man, but he's not going to make it.

Rubio rising. Marco Rubio is certainly a viable candidate after finishing strongly last night. His speech sounded like a victory speech. It's a bit presumptuous, but he's certainly moved past Bush, Christie and Kasich in the "establishment lane." He's the most talented politician in the field, but he's got a lot of work to do to convince people he's not a squish. If he holds off Kasich and Christie in New Hampshire, he's got a chance to go a long way.

Classy and huge. The invincible Trump wasn't invincible after all, at least in Iowa. He threw the kitchen sink at Ted Cruz, but in the end was not able to turn his rock star crowds into enough caucus attendees to win. If I were Trump, I'd be very nervous about Rubio at this point. It will be interesting to see if he turns his invective machine in Rubio's direction, and away from Cruz, at least for the next week or so.

Cruzin'. Ted Cruz wins Iowa, turning his superior organization and some key endorsements into a narrow victory. The most significant thing about his win is that he campaigned against ethanol subsidies and still won anyway. If he can make a decent showing in New Hampshire, he'll stick around and have a chance to do well in the South. Certainly a contender.

Bern and Hill. Now that Martin O'Malley has dropped out, it's between an ancient socialist and Lady Blackberry Albatross for the Happy Days Are Here Again side of the aisle. Mrs. Clinton has the hellhounds on her trail at this point and if she gets crushed in New Hampshire, as seems likely, it will be interesting to see how things shake out. Bernie Sanders is not going to be president under any circumstances, but if he wounds Clinton sufficiently over the next few weeks, you can expect to see a lot more of Joe Biden.

Debate

I saw a good chunk of it, but not all. Quick impressions:

• Trump is still winning. I'm hardly enamored of him, but he projects an aura of leadership that no one else on the stage can match. I don't know if that's what people will want in the end, but it has undeniable appeal. His deft use of 9-11 to deal with Cruz's "New York values" gaffe was the most masterful moment of this cycle. He saw the hanging curve ball and drove it into the third deck. I'm not so crazy about his apparent willingness to start a trade war, among other things.
• Cruz probably shut down the birther nonsense. He also took a lot of shots from the other candidates, especially Rubio, and didn't handle his exchange with Trump well, as mentioned above. He's in good shape.
• The more I see of Rubio, the less I like him. He's a talent, but he doesn't seem ready to be President.
• Christie is the only other guy on the stage who seems even remotely plausible. I still don't like him for a number of reasons, but he'll probably do well in New Hampshire, and we'll see after that.
• Carson needs to go home now. Bush should have gone home months ago, but he's still got a lot of other people's money left to waste. I'm not sure why Kasich was even on the stage, although it's nice to know that he knew Strom Thurmond, who ran for president in 1948. No word on whether he also knew Henry Wallace or Thomas Dewey.

Debate post-mortem

I saw nearly all of the debate this time. Impressions:

• Jeb Bush's campaign is dead but too dumb to lie down. He flubbed both his opening and closing statements and while he clearly came prepared to match Donald Trump insult for insult, Trump flicked him away without a second thought. He doesn't project strength, or depth, or much of anything. At this point it seems the only reason his campaign goes on is that he has a lot of advisers who are drawing handsome salaries and they intend to bleed the donors dry. The money will dry up soon, though.
• John Kasich was a little less dyspeptic last night than he has been in previous debates, but I'm still not sure why he's even bothering. He's a contrarian and a charmless one at that. His applause lines generate crickets. I hear he's from Ohio, though.
• While I like Carly Fiorina a lot, she's getting diminishing returns at this point. I don't sense she broke any new ground. She played the Margaret Thatcher card; why wouldn't she? She's certainly more Margaret Thatcher than Margaret Dumont, but that's what we call damning with faint praise. I don't see where she goes from here.
• Ben Carson is clearly a great guy and I am certain he could teach all of us many things, but he's not going to be president. I don't see a path forward for him, either.
• I don't know if the money will run out for Rand Paul, but I hope he stays in the race. I don't see him having a way forward, either, but by offering a contrarian view of foreign policy generally, and military policy in particular, he provided a useful service in the debate. It's not a given that spending a lot more money on defense is the right answer. We do need to think long and hard about the failures of nation building and whether a return to a more neoconservative approach is proper. Paul is asking the right questions.
• My hunch is that Chris Christie made the most progress yesterday. The standard objections apply in his case, but his demeanor seems better suited for the moment than just about everyone else on the stage. I suspect he'll move up and will contend in New Hampshire.
• Marco Rubio and Ted Cruz were going at it hammer and tong throughout much of the debate. On an intellectual level, Cruz seems far superior, but Rubio is a far more appealing politician. While the provenance of the Gang of Eight is a relevant consideration to the Republican primary electorate, I'm not convinced it will matter very much in the general election. What happened at the beginning of 2013 matters quite a lot less than what is happening now. In some important ways, Cruz is closer to Rand Paul's approach, while Rubio has become significantly more bellicose as the campaign goes on. I suspect both of these guys will be in the race for a while.
• Then we have our man Trump, candidate as performance artist. No one laid a glove on him yesterday. He will continue to throw out substance-free assertions as long as he can get by with it and I don't see anyone who can force him to be specific -- Hugh Hewitt tried with his questions about the triad, but Trump just blew the question off. We'll be tough and great, apparently, if Trump is at the helm. As that noted political savant Baron von Raschke would say, that is all the people need to know. Personally, I'd like to know a lot more but I'm doubtful we'll hear details any time soon.

In the end, I don't think yesterday changed much. How did you see things? Did you see it? Let me know in the comments.

Debate tomorrow

It's time for yet another presidential debate on the Republican side. The timing is actually good, too, because the campaign has become stale and we need a shakeup. A few observations:

Donald Trump is tiresome and some of his supporters are even worse. I get this vibe from his campaign lately:

"We're gonna show that stupid GOPe!" Sure you are, kids.

Ted Cruz is now second in Iowa. He's an improvement from Trump, but I still wonder about his electability in the general election. I also would like someone with executive experience, but Trump has mostly cleared the field of candidates who have that credential (Walker, Jindal, Perry).

My sense on Marco Rubio is that he's simply too callow to be president. I like vision and soaring rhetoric as much as the next guy, but there's a thin line between inspiration and boilerplate.

Ben Carson is a good man who has no business being president. He's not going to make it and I get the sense he knows it, too.

Jeb Bush is still hanging around on the fringes, hoping that somehow he can can find a way to catch the prize as the others fall. If he were everyone's second pick, that might be plausible. He's not.

I still like Carly Fiorina, but the only time you see her in this campaign is on the debate stage. Until she demonstrates that she can remain visible, she won't be a factor. My guess is that's too late.

At this point, the guy who might have the most upside in the election is Chris Christie. It's difficult to forgive him for his behavior at the end of the 2012 cycle, but he's pretty good on the stump and he can be effective in debates. He's due for a second look and my guess is that he'll get one.

John Kasich is a scold. Scolds aren't elected president.

No one else in the race matters. Where do you see it?

Republican stock report

Only saw about 45 minutes of last night's debate -- was at a much more interesting event earlier in the evening, which I'll get to later, perhaps tomorrow. Status:

• Donald Trump is settling in. You either agree with him or you don't; generally, I don't. Will the voters actually go for him? We're going to find out.
• Ben Carson has taken a lot of shots from the media in the last week, but he's still standing. I remain unconvinced he has any reason to be president.
• Ted Cruz is a brilliant debater. He has a great mind. Not sure his persona will wear well with the public. Still would like him on the Supreme Court.
• I wish I liked Marco Rubio more than I do. He's a talented politician and a very good orator. He still seems, I dunno, callow. If Trump fades, I would bet he's the nominee, though.
• I agree with Rand Paul on many, many things. He's never going to be president, though, and he really ought to go back to Kentucky now.
• Carly Fiorina intrigues me. She might be the best pure communicator of the bunch and has a quick mind. A good skill set, but is the right one? Could see her being the VP, though. 
• How do I put this delicately? John Kasich is annoying. In some respects, he's playing the James Webb role on the Republican side. Or he's the Jon Huntsman of 2016. Either way, no chance.
• Jeb Bush, go home. It's over.

For other reviews -- here's Bud Norman. And John Hinderaker. And Paul Mirengoff. And the ever-popular "drunk blogging" of Stephen Green.

Ahem

I don't know whether Ben Carson got an invitation to West Point or not. Neither do you. Politico certainly doesn't know, either. I do know a lack of evidence for one position does not mean the opposite position is true. In other words, if Ben Carson says General Westmoreland offered him a chance to go to West Point, and Carson didn't subsequently apply, that doesn't mean the offer wasn't extended. Westmoreland has been unable to comment for at least ten years now.

I don't support Ben Carson for President, but I'm glad he's been pushing back against Politico. The lesson that Republicans are finally learning is simple enough -- you do not have to accept the premises and biases of your interlocutors. And it is always worth pushing back on the premises and biases of the MSM.

Dawn breaks slowly

A writer for the Washington Post figures it out:

Republican voters are fed up. They were told: “We need to win the House to block Obama!” So they elected a Republican House — and nothing changed. Then they were told: “That’s not good enough, we need to win the Senate, too.” So they elected a Republican Senate. And the result is this budget capitulation.

The message to the grassroots is clear: Elected Republicans care more about their own preservation than they care about principle.

If the Republican establishment wonders why Donald Trump has been surging in the polls, they need only look in the mirror. They are the Dr. Frankensteins that created the Trump monster that is now wreaking havoc on the GOP village. They have no one to blame but themselves.

That's columnist Marc Thiessen, generally conservative. And he's right. You can see a significant mismatch between the Republicans who walk around in Washington and the people who send them there.

This is a very old phenomenon. When I first started following politics, you would hear that certain Republicans had "grown" in office. The source of this growth was, inevitably, when they went along with what the Democrats wanted. Sometimes these moves would earn the Republican "strange new respect" in the covens salons along the Potomac. This was a regular enough phenomenon that Tom Bethell of the American Spectator would issue a "Strange New Respect" award for those erstwhile Republicans who pleased their betters.

It's always been an easy thing to do -- here in Minnesota, Arne Carlson has earned "Strange New Respect" so many times that he had his number retired, and if you ever hear from Dave Durenberger at all, it's usually because he's decided to bash his former colleagues.

I have thought that Trump would go away eventually, and that still may happen. But I'm starting to doubt it, and the zeitgeist that has filled his sails, and those of Ben Carson, is still out there. The smart Republicans understand it. And yes, despite a fair amount of evidence to the contrary, there are a few smart ones.

Debate Recap -- It's Raining Mensheviks!

I didn't see all of yesterday's debate, but I caught enough of it to get a flavor. Observations:

• More than a few of these people need to go home now. The entire undercard would be a good place to start; the only candidate of that group that I'd want to hear is Bobby Jindal, but it's just not happening for him in this cycle.
• Mike Huckabee needs to go home. He's very good in this format, but he's never going to be president and it's time he makes his peace with that. As he kept talking about eradicating diseases, I was half expecting him to start doing one of his infomercials.
• John Kasich should go home as well. He's not going to be president and when, you watch his body language and demeanor, he knows it.
• Rand Paul was there, apparently. Not so much that you'd notice, though. I think Ted Cruz has essentially eaten his lunch. I wish Rand well in his promised filibuster today -- a return to the Senate is very much in order.
• Chris Christie had a good night, but I doubt he did enough to move the needle. I appreciated his comment about fantasy football, as it underscores the behavior of our government and the functionaries and grandees who are in its employ -- they are less interested in solving existing problems than in finding new opportunities to regulate and control the behavior of others. H. L. Mencken made the same point many years ago.
• Jeb Bush had a disastrous night. He tried, pretty much at the outset, to take out Marco Rubio, but his attack went nowhere, because Rubio was ready for it. It's difficult to see any rationale for Bush's campaign, other than it's his turn. Bush has a lot of money and a big ol' Super PAC, but I don't see a way forward.
• Carly Fiorina didn't make much progress. According to NPR's clock, she got the most time to speak, but in the exchanges I saw she wasn't particularly effective. I suspect she sticks around for a while, but the window appears to be closing on her campaign.
• Ted Cruz intrigues me, but I wonder if he'll be able to translate his intellect into a winning campaign formula for the general election. He was quite effective in excoriating the CNBC moderators for their bias and rudeness, but I wonder if references to the Bolsheviks and Mensheviks work in the larger context. He's the smartest man in the room, but I sense he's still too much of the college debate champion and suspect he'll be a tough sell to the audience he needs to win. He scares the hell of the Left, though, and that's something..
• Ben Carson is leading in some national polling and while I don't see the reason for it, I suspect his calm demeanor is crucial. He's a doctor with an outstanding bedside manner. Does that make him a plausible president? I'm still skeptical.
• Marco Rubio is a contender. He had an excellent debate last night and he's left Jeb Bush in his wake. He was ready for the attack on his Senate attendance record and he seemed to gain the sympathy of the audience when the moderators started in on his personal finances. He may not win, but he's going to be there at the end.
• Donald Trump is an acquired taste and I'm not likely to acquire it. Having said that, he's a compelling figure and his supporters don't care much about the many cavils others might offer. While I think Cruz has more native intelligence, Trump has done a great job of reading the mood of the electorate he is currently courting. He might get bored with the campaign, but I wouldn't bet on that happening. He's going to be around to the end.

Scott Walker is gone

Too bad. He had potential and Walker made mistakes, but I think Trump killed his campaign, especially by loudly retailing the, and I'm going to use a clinical term here, bullshit claims of a previous Walker opponent, Mary Burke. Trump did the same thing in the last debate, and Walker objected to it, but after that moment CNN assured that Walker was barely on the screen any more. And that was the end. Trump is pretty much dead to me anyway, but his performance in re Walker was particularly egregious. You can highlight policy differences, but to outright lie is beyond the pale. And that's what Trump did in this matter. Go ahead and support Trump if you like his attitude and his swagger, but understand what you're getting is a man without any fixed principles other than his own self-regard. Trump will be a conservative champion until he gets bored with it. When that's over, he'll wipe his butt with all of his acolytes and not think twice about it. Again, if that's your thing, feel free to get on his bandwagon.

I don't have a favorite candidate at this point. If I had to pick today, I'd rank them as follows:

Rubio -- a compromise, but at least plausible
Fiorina -- not sure she's really the right person, but worth a listen
Cruz -- like him, but I don't think he's electable
Carson -- a very nice man and brilliant at what he does, but he'll not last
Trump -- look in my eyes, what do you see? Cult of personality
Bush -- go home, "Jeb!" Seriously, go home

I don't think anyone else has a chance. Do you see any sign of, say,  Bobby Jindal fever? I sure don't.

The second debate

Saw it -- didn't write about it yesterday because I was indisposed -- more on that in another post, probably tomorrow. Impressions:

• The format was terrible. It was all about goading the candidates to trash talk one another. And we might have finally found the way to silence Hugh Hewitt, who might as well have been on a milk carton.
• The Donald had a rough evening, but it may not matter, since many of his supporters aren't looking for wonkery. At some point Trump is going to need to offer specifics. I'm not sure his specifics will comport to the base as well as his attitude does.
• Carly Fiorina was impressive. Not surprising, because you don't get to the C-Suite in Corporate America unless you have presence and polish. She gets dinged for losing to Barbara Boxer, but I would suggest the California electorate is hardly representative of the rest of the country. I'm not sure how her skill set translates to political leadership, but she's going to rise in the polls for sure.
• I'm pretty sure Scott Walker was at the debate, but he was on camera about as much as Hugh Hewitt. I'm afraid Walker isn't going to make it, which is unfortunate because I think he has demonstrated the proper skill set in Wisconsin.
• There's a lot to like about Ben Carson, but he's not going to be president. It's evident that he thinks before he speaks and while we could use a thoughtful individual in the White House, that's not the prototype.
• John Kasich is running for president. Not sure why, though.
• Jeb Bush is going to stick around because he has a lot of money and even more institutional support from the old guard, but I'm pretty sure his moment has passed.
• I'm starting to think Marco Rubio is the guy to watch. He's made enemies with his unfortunate and unsuccessful alliance with Chuck Schumer, but I doubt that allegiance will be fatal.
• Mike Huckabee can go home now.
• Chris Christie was forceful, but he's not going to make it, either. We haven't elected a fat guy to be president since William Howard Taft.
• I like Ted Cruz, but there's something about his manner that's always seemed a little off. He almost comes off as Robert Mitchum in "Night of the Hunter." If he has "LOVE" and "HATE" tattooed on his fingers, we'll have confirmation.
• I also like Rand Paul, but he's got no chance.

Lemme know your thoughts in the comments.

The first debate

Saw a good chunk of it, but not all. First thing to note -- how much time did each candidate get to speak?

Classy and huge

I saw this and found it interesting on two levels -- first, it goes to show why you need to double-check your impressions. As I was watching, it seemed to me that Ben Carson and Ted Cruz got less airtime than some of the other candidates, but that was actually not true. Second, I do suspect Rand Paul's lack of airtime is both purposeful and problematic. He is the contrarian of the bunch and we needed to hear more of his political philosophy. I know the reason because I've studied libertarian thinkers and thinking, but I would imagine much of the audience doesn't. As for Scott Walker's lack of airtime, I think that's more a function of his style than anything else. He makes his point and moves on. He could have easily had an extra minute of time if he'd chosen to take it, but he didn't.

General impressions, in the order of airtime:

• Trump is Trump, a force of nature. He talks in generalities and it's clear that he's only renting conservative principles, but his acolytes love him for the same reason why the dudes in the mullets came out for Jesse Ventura in 1998: people perceive him as speaking truth to power. He'll be in this for a while.
• I'm not convinced that Jeb Bush really wants to be president, but it's his time now, or so he's been told. He actually has a pretty good record in Florida, but he's made a habit of sticking his finger in the eye of the base. I don't see him making it.
• John Kasich had a home field advantage, since the debate took place in Cleveland, and he used it -- it was clear that the hall had a lot of Kasich acolytes in attendance. Kasich might have the best record of any candidate, but he seems, I don't know, cranky. He spits out his talking points in good fashion but he doesn't seem particularly compelling.
• Marco Rubio is a talented dude. He also seems callow to me. I really would like him to run for governor of Florida and come back in eight years.
• Ben Carson is interesting to watch. It takes him a while to rev up, but once he gets going he's pretty good. He's done some remarkable things in his life that are completely unrelated to the job he is seeking. In the end, that disconnect will doom his candidacy. Still, I would like to hear more.
• Ted Cruz is brilliant, the smartest guy in just about any room. He knows it, too. I think he really belongs on the Supreme Court. 
• I have never liked Mike Huckabee, because I think he's a charlatan. He's very good behind a podium, though. His "trust but vilify" line concerning the Leader of the Free World was a good one. I still don't trust him.
• Chris Christie is fun to watch -- his dustup with Rand Paul was the most interesting exchange of the night. He would never admit it publicly, but I think he will regret his embrace of Barack Obama for the rest of his days. He'll never have the trust of the Republican base.
• As I said, Scott Walker hit his marks and moved on. The interesting comparison for him is Kasich, who is also a Midwestern governor but a generation older and with extensive Washington experience. I suspect Kasich is going to start taking shots at Walker and it will be interesting to see how Walker responds.
• I like Rand Paul for many reasons. He's the only libertarian in the race and I personally think he got the better of his exchange with Christie. He doesn't come across as forceful on the television screen, however. His voice is adenoidal, which really hurts him.
• I didn't see any of the matinee event, but the consensus is that Carly Fiorina won going away. I would very much like to see more of her; she's tough-minded and she stays on message better than any of the candidates I've seen. I suspect she'll be in the next debate.

Finally, a word on the Fox News panel asking the questions. From what I can tell, the conservative blogosphere was mightily displeased with the questions and tone of the panel, with particular scorn for Chris Wallace. I didn't mind the tough questions -- when the general election debates take place next year, those are the sorts of questions that will be asked, so it's better that the candidates get used to it.