Donald Trump is tiresome and some of his supporters are even worse. I get this vibe from his campaign lately:
Ted Cruz is now second in Iowa. He's an improvement from Trump, but I still wonder about his electability in the general election. I also would like someone with executive experience, but Trump has mostly cleared the field of candidates who have that credential (Walker, Jindal, Perry).
My sense on Marco Rubio is that he's simply too callow to be president. I like vision and soaring rhetoric as much as the next guy, but there's a thin line between inspiration and boilerplate.
Ben Carson is a good man who has no business being president. He's not going to make it and I get the sense he knows it, too.
Jeb Bush is still hanging around on the fringes, hoping that somehow he can can find a way to catch the prize as the others fall. If he were everyone's second pick, that might be plausible. He's not.
I still like Carly Fiorina, but the only time you see her in this campaign is on the debate stage. Until she demonstrates that she can remain visible, she won't be a factor. My guess is that's too late.
At this point, the guy who might have the most upside in the election is Chris Christie. It's difficult to forgive him for his behavior at the end of the 2012 cycle, but he's pretty good on the stump and he can be effective in debates. He's due for a second look and my guess is that he'll get one.
John Kasich is a scold. Scolds aren't elected president.
No one else in the race matters. Where do you see it?
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Six months ago I was convinced Walker was the strongest candidate and had a very high probability of being president.
When he dropped out I was sure the anti-Trumps would coalesce around Bush.
At this point it is clear to me that I do not understand the GOP race. I'm not sure anyone does. Cruz seems to the favorite of a lot of talking heads at the moment, but this seems tremendously shortsighted. His talent is selling his shtick to people who have already bought it. Bracketing my disagreements with him on policy and philosophy (as best I can) I simply cannot envision him as appealing to the voter that is up for grabs. His only strategy is to win on turnout: both firing up his base and counting on apathy on the other side. That simply isn't going to happen in a year when the Dems have an historic candidate (however flawed).
Personally I think the best GOP talent is not in this race for the same reason there is no significant opposition on the Dem side: no one wants to be the guy that loses to Hillary Clinton. Paul Ryan, Jeff Flake, hell even Pat McCrory would all be better national candidates than *anyone* currently in the race. I still think Walker would have been the best general candidate of this bunch, and I expect to see him again in four (or perhaps eight, but probably not) years.
It's what...six weeks until Iowa? Some not-Trumps are going to need to get out of the way pretty soon and throw it all behind one candidate. Pretty soon. Or else you're going to have a very entertaining convention.
Jimmy Carter was a scold. So is Bernie.
Jimmy Carter was a scold. So is Bernie.
By 1980, yes. But not in 1976. Bernie isn't really running for president, either.
The way I see it, Cruz has positioned himself as the running back behind Trump's pulling guard. Trump goes out and makes an outrageous statement that is essentially the right and popular idea, getting the press to cover him and the "cheap seats" to like him. The press then runs to Cruz to condemn Trump's statement and he is then in a position to "pick up the pieces" of the free publicity by saying the same thing in a better way. Eventually that will help him immensely because he will be seen as the "reasonable" one of the two-- quite a feat, actually. As for the general election, my concern with Cruz was always that he seemed unlikable, but then I remembered whom he is running against, and I see only upside for him there. Plus he is making an effort lately to be more likable and I think it's working for him. He has an efficient "ground game" in Iowa as well, and that retail politicking does matter. I would love to see Fiorina be the VP pick. I can't imagine the Dems having a better debater. Or ANYbody as VP, for that matter.
I agree with Mr. D and Brian on this one. I think it is going to be an interesting fight with my only hope being Voldemort and Cruz NOT being the nominee.
So what's wrong with Cruz, and what is the realistic alternative? Carson?
Jerry: try to put yourself in the mindset of the genuinely persuadable, general election voter. I know you think the likability gap between Cruz and Clinton is not vast, but try to separate that assessment from what you, personally, think of Clinton.
Clinton exudes the warmth of a monitor lizard. She always speaks as though being deposed. When she makes an attempt to be funny, sound passionate, or just generally come off as human, it is painfully forced. Among my liberal leaning friends (I wager I have a few more than you) she inspires what can best be described as "passionate ambivalence."
BUT...that careful, brand-managing, ambivalence-inspiring personality is also what keeps her from coming off as a brash jackass, which Cruz does on the regular. Even other GOP senators don't like him (and they actually work with him.) He's a demagogue, who is very talented at rallying the support of people who already agree with him. The thing that makes you like Cruz is the very thing that makes the voters you need to win turn away.
Demagogues generally don't win over the middle-of-the-road voters in Ohio, Pennsylvania, Michigan, etc., that decide most presidential elections.
As to who is better? Not my problem! Honestly, I think the least repellant candidate remaining in the GOP race is Bush, but no one should mistake that for an endorsement.
Again, I think that Cruz is positioned well, and smart enough to "moderate" his tone. That he often aggravates the GOP "establishment" as well as Democrats, will endear him to a LOT of people this cycle, in the same way Trump does, only better.
We have two serious problems with our political system. First, we have been encouraged to believe that, somehow, if we just elect the right guy as President, all of our problems are solved and we can go get a beer. Second, our system is such that the best campaigner does not also possess the skill set to be a good chief executive and CinC, and vice versa. I don't trust Rubio, or Bush. Kasich is a gruff and tired old-timer, Carson is an under-qualified nice guy, Christie seems to have lost his fire, and Paul has disqualified himself with me. That leaves me with Cruz and Fiorina. Not a bad ticket, IMHO.
She always speaks as though being deposed.
Probably wise, actually.
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