No one for the Hall?

 We'll get the announcement this evening -- will anyone make the Baseball Hall of Fame this year? To be honest, I doubt it. Here's the list of candidates:

Curt Schilling -- I think he's worthy. The only guy with a shot this year. His tendency to be a conservative loudmouth has hurt his candidacy. It shouldn't matter, but sportswriters tend to be PC and it's hurt him. He has one more year on the ballot and the writers may decide to throw him a bone then; otherwise, he's a cinch on a Veterans' Committee in the future.

Bloody socks and bloody shirts

Roger Clemens -- Steroid guy; not proven but strongly suspected. Also a prickly personality. He was clearly the greatest pitcher of his generation and probably top 5-6 of all time, but he's probably not going to make it.

Barry Bonds -- Mr. BALCO. If he'd been able to control his jealousy at McGwire and Sosa and had stayed off the juice, he'd have been in the HOF years ago. Now, probably not.

Omar Vizquel -- great defensive player and ended up close to 3000 hits. Unfortunately, he seems to be a domestic abuser as well. Don't think he's gonna make it.

Scott Rolen -- one of the best third basemen in history, but he wasn't flashy and didn't attract attention to himself, so he's underrated. He's climbing the ladder and should make it as early as 2022 or 2023.

Billy Wagner -- dominant lefty relief pitcher. Not sure he's special enough to make it.

Gary Sheffield -- a legitimately fearsome hitter, but has the steroid taint and was also roundly considered a bad dude. Not likely to make it.

Todd Helton -- climbing the ladder; he played his entire career for the Rockies, so his power numbers are suspect, but he was a great hitter and won three Gold Gloves. Not this year, but eventually, yes.

Manny Ramírez -- like Sheffield, a legitimately great hitter and one of the most colorful characters in the history of the game. But he's lousy with steroids so he's not going to make it.

Jeff Kent -- a great hitter at a traditional defensive position (second base); has the numbers, but never seems to get the traction. A candidate for the Veterans Committee in the future.

Andruw Jones -- defensively elite center fielder who also hit more than 400 home runs, but his career fell off a cliff at the age of 30. He may make it eventually primarily for his defensive excellence, but he's a borderline case in any event.

Sammy Sosa -- over 600 homers and while he's never admitted to steroid use, everyone thinks he did. He's gotten weird post-career as well. No chance.

Andy Pettitte -- great pitcher, but a serious steroid taint. Not likely to overcome the stigma.

Bobby Abreu -- a modern-day Ken Singleton or Dusty Baker; a talented player who is seriously underrated. But no one thinks Baker or Singleton is a Hall of Famer, either.

There are three first year players who I think could stay on the ballot, although I don't see any of them making the HOF during the normal 10-year process. They are:

Mark Buehrle -- a high-quality lefty who mostly pitched for the White Sox. He's a lot like Mickey Lolich, but only old guys like me remember Lolich. 

Torii Hunter -- like all Twins fans, I love Torii Hunter. And he was a hell of a player, one of the best center fielders of his era. But he's not going to make it.

Tim Hudson -- a good righthander who won over 200 games in his career. His career numbers are quite similar to Catfish Hunter, who is in the HOF, but Hudson's taste in teammates wasn't as good. 

The rest of the 1st year players (Dan Haren, Barry Zito, Aramis Ramirez, Shane Victorino, A. J. Burnett, Nick Swisher, LaTroy Hawkins, and Michael Cuddyer) aren't going to make it. Even die-hard Twins fans would admit Hawkins and Cuddyer aren't worthy.

Miller time

Marvin Miller didn't play baseball, but it would be difficult to think of anyone who was a more consequential figure in the baseball world in the last 50 years. Miller was the head of the Major League Baseball Players Association from 1966 through 1982, but his influence went well beyond his tenure. He was instrumental in bringing the end of the reserve clause and the start of free agency, and baseball salaries increased exponentially as a result of his leadership. He changed the game. And the powers that be hated him.

Marvin Miller

Miller is one of 10 candidates for the Hall of Fame that the Veterans Committee will consider next month, along with nine "Modern Era" players, including the following:

Dwight Evans
Steve Garvey
Tommy John
Don Mattingly
Thurman Munson
Dale Murphy
Dave Parker
Ted Simmons
Lou Whitaker

I saw all of these guys play; the only one I didn't see in person was Garvey, but he was one of the most prominent players of the era and he was on television all the time, especially during his time with the Dodgers. Do you think of any of these guys as worthy of the Hall?

At this point, all of them probably deserve a look, especially if Harold Baines is the standard. If I had a ballot and could pick four, I'd pick Miller and then Whitaker, Simmons, and Murphy. Munson was a fine player, but he was already in decline as a player when he died in a plane crash. Garvey was a good offensive player, but he was a poor defensive first baseman. Evans and Parker strike me as classic examples of very good players who didn't do enough to merit consideration. Mattingly was a great player but his career ended too soon because of injuries. I think John has a fairly strong case, but no stronger than Jim Kaat, who is also on the outside looking in.

There aren't a lot of second basemen in the Hall and Whitaker is probably the best one not there, although you could also make an argument for Bobby Grich. Whitaker's double play partner, Alan Trammell, is already in the Hall and deservedly so. Whitaker and Trammell might be the best overall double play combo of all time. Whitaker also had surprising power for a middle infielder, with 244 career homers. He also won three Gold Gloves. That's a Hall of Fame career.

Simmons got lost because he played his career in the shadow of Johnny Bench, but in his best seasons he was Bench's equal. A switch hitting catcher who was a career .285 hitter with power, Simmons was the face of the Cardinals in one of their few lean periods, but he was also a key member of the only Brewers team to appear in a World Series. If I had to choose between Simmons and Munson, it would be no contest.

Murphy won back-to-back MVP awards in the 1980s and was a perennial Gold Glove outfielder. He also hit 398 home runs in his career, although in a favorable hitter's park (Atlanta Fulton County Stadium, a/k/a the Launching Pad). If you think of the best players in the National League in that era, he has to be on the list. Parker was his contemporary and played on better teams, but wasn't as consistent.

What do you think?

D and Benster Talk Hall of Fame Ballot -- 2019 Edition, Part Two

Part one is here.

We move on to returning candidates on the ballot. We'll go in order of votes received in 2018:

I'm ready, Geritol Fan.

Andruw Jones: He got votes on 7.3% of the ballots last year. He started out as an all-time great defensive centerfielder, morphed into a fearsome power hitter, then gained weight and absolutely hit the wall. He was a very different sort of player, but his overall numbers are similar to Dale Murphy, who was also a long-time slugger for the Braves who has thus far fallen short of enshrinement. His career batting average of .254 will be difficult to overcome. 434 home runs are impressive. He's not going to make it and may fall off the ballot this year, but a future Veteran's Committee may give him another look.

He's also significant for being the first prominent major leaguer from Curacao. This guy has Vets Committee written all over him.

Sammy Sosa: He got 7.8% last time. He's probably hurt more by PED use than anyone else. He hit 609 home runs. He was beloved. But his fall from grace was swift and severe. His numbers compare to Jim Thome, Mike Schmidt, Reggie Jackson -- HOFers, all. But he was on the juice. And he's not going to be in the HOF any time soon.

I watched Sammy Sosa on WGN as a kid and he was one of my favorites. Just a shame that he used drugs. 

Scott Rolen: He got 10.2% last time. Not everyone thinks WAR is a great measurement, but by that standard Rolen is a no-brainer and one of the top 100 players in baseball history. He's actually a lot like Ron Santo; a wonderful player who never got the credit he deserved. Santo eventually made the Hall, but his selection was posthumous. Rolen's biggest problem is that he was a contemporary of two third basemen who were better -- Chipper Jones (in the HOF) and Adrian Beltre (retiring this year and a first ballot HOFer, I think). But he was excellent. Maybe someday, but not this year.

I think Rolen is hurt by the fact that this year is a strong ballot. I think he gets in, but he's going to have to wait.

Billy Wagner: He got 11.1% last time. A dominant lefty reliever. Played most of his career in Houston and suffered for that. He seems like a Hall of Very Good guy to me.

Wagner is not the best closer of his era. That's Rivera. You could also argue that K-Rod is better. Wagner might get in when the Vets Committee takes a look, but it's tough to see him getting voted in with the normal process.

Gary Sheffield: He also got 11.1% last time. A jackass, bad teammate and a PED user. But a hell of a player nonetheless. Over 500 home runs, career .292 hitter. His career numbers are similar to great players like Chipper Jones, Mel Ott, Reggie Jackson, but he's likely to be the Dick Allen of his generation. As an aside, Allen may make the HOF as an old-timer in the next few years, but I wonder if Sheffield will ever make it.

Sheffield is arguably the face of BALCO. If you let him in, then you let Pete Rose in. 

Jeff Kent: He got 14.5% last time. With the possible exception of Joe Morgan and Rogers Hornsby, he might be the best offensive second baseman to ever play the game. Has offensive numbers similar to Ryne Sandberg, but Sandberg was a far superior player. Kent was an indifferent fielder and a bit of a putz, from most accounts. Probably deserves more recognition than he's likely to get, but it's difficult to make a strong argument for his candidacy.

I agree. I will say his feud with Barry Bonds was spicy.

Manny Ramirez: He got 22% last time. Offensive numbers say all-time great. But he was a notorious PED guy and, even though he did amazing things on the field, still seen as a malingerer during his career. 555 career homers and a lifetime .312 batting average translates into Jimmie Foxx/Frank Robinson territory, but would you take Manny over those guys? Of course not. He'll have to hope time and tide change views of his career, but as of now he doesn't have much support.

Manny also benefited from hitting next to David Ortiz for much of his career. He'll have to settle for being a Boston legend.

Fred McGriff: He got 23.2% last time. It's also his last chance on the ballot. A fearsome slugger and a good dude, but always seemed like a near-miss. But if Harold Baines is in the HOF, why wouldn't McGriff be? He's Baines with better overall numbers. McGriff's overall numbers compare in some ways to Willie McCovey, but in other ways to Paul Konerko. That's the dilemma. What do you make of his career? I'll be curious to see what happens.

The Crime Dog is a victim of his peers choosing to juice. If the writers left the roid users off the ballot, McGriff would get in. It's a shame he won't get in this year.

Larry Walker: He got 34.1% last time. This guy is a tough one. He was a great hitter and, at times, an exceptional outfielder. He hit 383 homers, with a lifetime batting average of .313. His offensive numbers are comparable to Duke Snider and Joe DiMaggio, but no one thinks Walker is that good. Should they? His largest problem is that he compiled some big years in Coors Field, but he also played the first half of his career in the mausoleum that was Olympic Stadium in Montreal. If you take his numbers at face value, he deserves the nod. I do.

I've been arguing Walker's case for a long time. He's arguably the best player in Rockies history and had a great end to his career in St. Louis. You can't keep an entire organization out of the Hall of Fame.

Omar Vizquel: He got 37.2% last time. The Ozzie Smith of his generation. Had a very long career (24 years!) and is among the greatest fielders of all time. Played long enough to get 2877 hits. His numbers are similar to Smith and Luis Apiricio. He's going to make it eventually, but it may take a few years.

Defense has always been underrated by the voters, except when it's overrated for really good defenders. I don't think Vizquel is a Hall of Famer, but I wouldn't be surprised if he got in.

Curt Schilling: He got 51.2% last time. Schilling was a huge talent, but I really think his huge mouth is hurting his candidacy. I've always been lukewarm about his career, but he was beyond dispute a big-game pitcher who went to the World Series with three teams and was instrumental in winning with both the Diamondbacks and the Red Sox. His overall numbers are like Don Drysdale and Doc Halladay. Drysdale is in and Halladay will be, perhaps as soon as this year. Tough to see why they measure up and Schilling doesn't.

If Schilling were a Democrat, nobody would care about what he says. He's the definition of a workhorse and belongs in the Hall of Fame.

Barry Bonds: He got 56.2% last time. I've probably said this before, but I wish Bonds had retired in 1998. He'd have been in the HOF for sure. But he watched McGwire and Sosa have their parade and decided he could top them. He got on the juice and proved he could hit more home runs, but in the process he wrecked everything. He was a great player, possibly in the Top 10 of all time, but he'll always have the taint. He ought to change his middle name to Hubris and be done with it.

When Bonds broke the all-time home run record, I felt anger. It's a shame that Roger Maris and Hank Aaron don't have their records back.

Roger Clemens: He got 57.3% last time. Same thing as Bonds. He won 354 games. He was a better version of Tom Seaver and if he had simply retired at, say, age 36, he's in for sure. But he extended his career with PEDs and is now paying the price for it. One of the top 5 pitchers of all time, but it's tough to argue on his behalf at the moment.

It really is a shame. Clemens had a heck of a second act in New York, but he chose to ruin his career in the process.

Mike Mussina: He got 63.5% last time. He won 270 games. He was a big game pitcher who rarely had the chance to pitch in one. But he was really good. The best comparable pitcher to Mussina is probably Juan Marichal. That's HOF quality. He may not make it this time, but he'll get there.

It's amazing that Mussina is underrated, but he is. He was quietly brilliant for a long time and is a key reason why the Yankees won the 2003 ALCS. I think he gets over the hump this year.

Edgar Martinez: He just fell short last time, getting 70.4%. This is his last year on the ballot. Martinez is the greatest DH of all time, with the possible exception of David Ortiz. Is it enough? Well, again the Harold Baines question looms. If Harold Baines is in the HOF, why not Martinez? Baines hit more home runs, Martinez hit for a better average. In my recollection, Baines was respected. Martinez, at his best, was feared. I'd like to see him make it, but he's a close call, which the overall numbers make clear.

I'd argue Martinez was as good a hitter as Junior. No one disputes that Junior is in the HOF. The DH has been around since 1973, and I think it's only fair that a DH gets into the Hall of Fame.

We will get the results this coming week. My guess is the class is Rivera, Halladay, and Martinez. Mussina might make it, too. If you want a darkhorse candidate, it could be Walker.

I think it's a big class this year. I have Rivera, Halladay, Martinez, Mussina, and Walker. 

Thanks for your help, Benster. And glad to see you've calmed down from the football picks!

The pastoral thing really helps, Old Dude. Thanks for letting me play!

D and Benster Talk Hall of Fame Ballot -- 2019 Edition, Part One

It's more or less an annual tradition that we talk about the candidates for the 2019 Baseball Hall of Fame. This year, Benster is going to be weighing in as well. We will cover 1st year candidates in this post, then circle back for the rest on Saturday. By the way, this is the strongest group of first-year candidates we've seen in a long time.

I'm old enough now where I've seen many of the players on the ballot, so I figure my opinion is worth something.

Opinions you've got for sure. So let's weigh in, shall we?

One and done (most likely) candidates. These guys are on the ballot because they meet the minimum requirements, but no one thinks they're worthy. I will dispatch each with a brief comment, and Benster will weigh in as he feels necessary:

Rick Ankiel: Started out as a pitcher, then became an outfielder. Memorable more for personal issues than anything he did on the field.

Interesting story, but his baseball career is more about the virtual circuit. Not a HOF player at all.

Juan Pierre: Speedy outfielder, sort of a modern-day Mickey Rivers, but less of a character than Mickey. Had a few nice seasons, but that was it.

He was underrated member and key contributor to the '03 Marlins, but doesn't belong.

Darren Oliver: He had a long career, 20 seasons. Was a starter initially, but ended up being a situational lefty. Won more games (118) in the majors than you might think, but was never a dominant player.

Not even close.

Jon Garland: Tall righthander, pitched most of his career with the White Sox. Had his best year in the championship season of 2005, winning 18 games for the Sox with an era of 3.50. He was never a dominant pitcher but he would definitely keep you in the game.

Solid #3 starter. As a rule, number 3 guys aren't in the HOF unless they are John Smoltz. He's not Smoltz.

Freddy Garcia: A good righthander, teammate of Garland on the 2005 White Sox. More successful career than Garland overall, winning 156 games. Similar career to current Twin Ervin Santana. A guy you were never afraid to trot out there, but not a HOF pitcher. May get enough votes to get a second crack, but probably not.

Had some good years in Seattle; other pitchers of his generation were better.

Ted Lilly: A poor man's Tom Glavine. Lefthander, bounced around a lot. Had several good seasons with the Cubs. He won over 10 games in 10 different seasons, which will keep you around. Good guy, by all accounts.

A good glue guy to have in your rotation. Glue guys don't make the Hall.

Michael Young: A good infielder, mostly at 3rd base. Had some power and usually hit for a good average -- lifetime .300 hitter. Made the All-Star Game 7 times, usually representing the Texas Rangers. Similar career to Ian Kinsler, although Kinsler is a better overall player. Might get a second look, but won't make it.

I'd also add that the Rangers were inconsistent during his tenure. Since he was one of the leaders of the team, that's not a good look.

Jason Bay: A power hitting leftfielder who bounced around a lot. Hit over 30 home runs in 4 seasons. Career numbers are similar to guys like Jesse Barfield, who you might remember but don't consider a HOF player. Of course, Barfield had probably the best outfield arm in the American League during his career. Bay was out in left because he couldn't throw.

Did win Rookie of the Year, but a lot of guys who aren't in the Hall won Rookie of the Year. 

Travis Hafner: Essentially a poor man's Jim Thome. Like Thome, he played the bulk of his career with the Indians. Hit 42 homers in his best season (2006), but ended up with about a third of Thome's career totals. Thome is in the Hall of Fame. Hafner is not going to get there.

He also struggled with injuries, which greatly shortened his career. Even so, he's not dominant enough to get by that.

Vernon Wells: A contemporary of Jermaine Dye and of similar value. He hit 270 homers and did win  3 Gold Gloves, but he was never great and he made the mistake of playing the majority of his career in Toronto, which meant no one paid much attention to him. But if no one thought Jermaine Dye was a HOFer, no one will think Wells is one, either.

Wells got caught in the shuffle, due to residing in the unglamorous city in baseball's glamor division. I'd be shocked if the Vets Committee gives him a second look.

Derek Lowe: He had a career that resembled John Smoltz, except he wasn't nearly as good. A starter who became a closer and then went back to being a starter, Lowe won 176 games, which means he had a substantial career. He also was a key member of the Red Sox when they finally broke through in 2004. Is that enough? Probably not. He may get enough votes to stay on the ballot, but I don't think he's ever going to get in.

Lowe won all three clinching playoff games in 2004, which is impressive. But it's not enough.

Kevin Youkilis: A guy who had great taste in teammates, he's a right-handed version of Mike Moustakas. Hit with moderate power and for a good average. Remembered more for being a colorful character than anything he did on the diamond.

Bill James famously called Youkilis "The Greek God of Walks." He'll have to live with that being his claim to fame, although I bet he rarely pays for a drink in a Boston bar.

Placido Polanco: Actually a pretty good player who was an excellent #2 hitter, but his career is scattered because he bounced around a lot. A career .297 hitter with decent power and a good glove, he was always a guy you wanted on your team. He might stick around on the ballot for a cycle or two, but I fear his tendency to be on the move will hurt him.

Those Tiger teams he played on were better than you might remember. If the '84 Tigers had to wait for recognition, Polanco will have to wait as well.

Miguel Tejada: An excellent career, but a steroid and HGH user who lied to Congress during their 2005 investigation. His stats are comparable to players like Alan Trammell (in the Hall) and Robinson Cano (active but with PED problems of his own). If he'd put together the career he did without juicing, I think he'd have an argument. Not sure he does now. May stay on the ballot for a while, though.

I think steroid users have no business even being on the ballot. Bye, Miguel.

Multiple ballot guys -- these guys will stay on the ballot, but won't make it in our estimation:

Roy Oswalt: An excellent pitcher who was never the staff ace, he won 163 games and had an superb career ERA (3.36), but he was, like Jon Garland, usually the #3 starter. Some of that was because his teammates (Clemens, Pettitte, Halladay) were just better, but when you look at his overall numbers, he compares favorably to people like Ron Guidry and Bret Saberhagen, who were great pitchers. But, you might notice, neither Guidry nor Saberhagen are in the Hall, either.

I want to like Oswalt. I really do. I just can't think of a signature moment in his career, though. It wouldn't surprise me if he falls off the ballot, but he's likely to stay on for another year.

Lance Berkman: He had a really nice career -- 366 homers, career .293 average, and was a winning player who was a contributor in multiple World Series teams. Is that enough? Do you think Jim Edmonds and Dick Allen are HOF-worthy? Maybe, but neither are in, although Edmonds has a better case. Berkman's career numbers are similar to those guys. Hall of the Very Good, if you ask me.

Berkman is borderline to me as well. He's a guy that I think the Veteran's Committee will give a second look some day.

Andy Pettitte: Man, this guy is a tough case. He won a lot of games (256) and was a key figure on some great Yankees teams. He also helped the Astros make the World Series in '05. But he was a PED guy, too, and he also was a bit of a weasel when you look back at things. If he'd laid off the juice, he'd be a no-brainer. But for now, I don't think he's there. He'll get a chance to make his case, though.

I've always compared Pettitte to Whitey Ford. Both were proven postseason performers. The problem is, Whitey Ford's only drug of choice was booze. You can argue about the morality of that, and his hijinks with Mickey Mantle are legendary. But he didn't use steroids. I'd be a hypocrite if I thought Pettitte was a Hall of Famer.

Todd Helton: For me, the most interesting guy on the 1st year list. I think Helton was a great player. He hit .316 for his career and hit 369 home runs. He was a Gold Glove first baseman, a leader, and probably one of the best ambassadors the game has had in the 21st Century. But he played his entire career at Coors Field, so some voters are going to knock him. I think the comparable player in this case is Jeff Bagwell, who is in the HOF on merit. Bagwell had to wait a few years, and Helton might, too, but he's a HOF player for sure in my estimation.

We'll discuss the other longtime Rockie on the ballot later. I think Helton belongs. I also find it hypocritical that people hold Coors Field against guys like Helton, when there are plenty of players who benefited from their own home ballparks, including a list of Yankee left-handed power hitters as long as your arm. The Gold Gloves at Coors should count for something, too.

Roy Halladay: Doc died in a plane crash, but we're going to forget that. Based on his career, which was somewhat shorter than some HOF pitchers, does he deserve enshrinement? I think yes, and I think he clears the bar rather easily. He won over 200 games and had an outstanding ERA (3.38). He was a straight-up intimidator and a stopper of the first rank. You gave him the ball and he got the job done. He also threw a no hitter in the playoffs, which only Don Larsen beat. He was the greatest pitcher in the history of the Toronto Blue Jays and a key player for some very strong Phillies teams as well. He may make it on the first ballot, but if he doesn't, he'll be there soon.

Doc was a very fun pitcher to watch. He's going to get in on the first ballot. He was the type of pitcher you wanted to give the ball to.

Mariano Rivera: Quite simply the greatest relief pitcher of all time. He was dominant and amazingly consistent. He kept Louisville Slugger in business with all the bats he shattered with his terrifying cutter. And yet he was a modest, gentlemanly player who was universally respected throughout baseball. But he was a stone killer. An all-time great for sure.

My only complaint about Rivera is that he dominated the Twins. When you can consistently get major league hitters out with one pitch, it's hard to deny your greatness. I consider myself lucky to have watched him play.

That's that. See you later for the returning candidates.

Lightning Round -- 121118

A few random thoughts:

• I don't care what Kyler Murray tweeted when he was 15 years old. I didn't care what Josh Hader tweeted, either. The news outlets that report such things are more vile than anything a 15-year-old boy might be thinking.
• We had a good discussion yesterday in the comments section concerning the election of Harold Baines and Lee Smith to the Baseball Hall of Fame. I really enjoyed watching Harold Baines throughout his career; he was a rock-solid player and a true gentleman who is a credit to the game. That's not nearly enough to make him a Hall of Fame member, however. Lee Smith was a dominant closer for over a decade, in the transition period between the Goose Gossage-style multi-inning dominators of the 1970s and the one-inning matadors of the current era. Smith is a borderline case in my estimation, but as we start sorting the great from the okay in terms of modern era pitchers, Smith is certainly a defensible choice. I do worry about the various Veterans Committees that the HOF is currently employing becoming similar to the committees of the 1970s, when a lot of dubious guys were honored because, at bottom, they were pals with the committee members.
• Another question -- is Joe Mauer a Hall of Fame player? Yes, I think so. If you consider him a catcher, which he was for the majority of his career, his overall numbers and defensive effectiveness are clearly above the bar. If you consider him a first baseman, not so much. His career numbers don't rank high on the all-time list, but he was, in many cases, a great player. Kirby Puckett had a similar career arc, although his career was cut short. The numbers are important in considering players, but the eye test still has value. If you watched Mauer and Puckett play, you saw greatness on a regular basis.
• I'm not going to write about the latest efforts from the Trump Scandal Factory for at least a few days. I remain convinced a counterpunch is in the offing, but it's not yet clear when that will happen.
• The Packers are pretty much dead for this season and it appears the Vikings are in trouble, too. Somewhere in California, a guy we know is smiling.

Morris and Trammell to the HOF

So I got confused and thought the Veterans' Committee was reporting later. Instead, they reported their votes today and we now know that Jack Morris and Alan Trammell are going into the Baseball Hall of Fame.

Tigers, Tigers, burning bright

Out of the 10 finalists, these were probably the two best candidates, although I liked Ted Simmons or Luis Tiant as candidates as well. Morris is controversial because his stats aren't the most impressive, but he was the one guy you wanted to have in a big game throughout the 1980s. And, of course, he won Game 7 of the 1991 World Series almost by himself, shutting down the Atlanta Braves. He was a hell of a pitcher and he's worthy.

Trammell was a great player for a very long time. I think his double play partner, Lou Whitaker, was just as good, but it's still great to see Trammell make it. He wasn't as good as Robin Yount or Cal Ripken, but that's not the level of competition you compare him to. If you look at the 24 shortstops currently in the HOF, he would be in the top half, I think. Good choices. Now we await the other new members.

Quick and Dirty Baseball HOF Roundup

Who will join them?

It kinda snuck up on me this year, but it's a tradition and I have a little time this morning, so let's get to it, especially since the announcement will take place later today. The Veteran's Committee will weigh in later and that's worth a separate post.

First year candidates with no chance include:

Brad Lidge -- a good relief pitcher for a few years.
Jason Isringhausen -- a decent pitcher who never did anything notable.
Aubrey Huff -- a first baseman/outfielder type who lasted longer than you'd have expected.
Carlos Lee -- El Caballo. A power hitting outfielder who wasn't very good defensively.
Kevin Millwood -- a poor man's Brad Radke.
Orlando Hudson -- a good player, nothing more.
Carlos Zambrano -- a dominant pitcher at times, but could not sustain his career.
Chris Carpenter -- at times, a very good pitcher. Not enough of a career to go forward, though.

First year curiosities with no chance include:

Hideki Matsui -- a pretty good player, but not great. Came over from Japan and acquitted himself well.
Kerry Wood -- dominant power pitcher who blew out his arm and never really recovered. Tried to come back as a reliever, but only had one good year at that.
Livan Hernandez -- came over from Cuba and had a long career. Overall win/loss record was 178-177, which sums him up.

Five guys who will get more than one look:

Jamie Moyer -- similar profile to Tommy John and Jim Kaat, but in the modern era. Never dominant, but generally good and pitched until he was almost 50. He'll probably fall short for the same reason Kaat and John have, but winning 269 games in the major leagues is a hell of an accomplishment.
Omar Vizquel -- a long, distinguished career. Great defensive shortstop, many Gold Gloves. Not a great hitter. There are worse shortstops than Vizquel already in the Hall of Fame, but that doesn't mean he'll get there. I expect he'll be a source of much discussion for the next ten years.
Johnny Damon -- Very good hitter and defensive outfielder who was a key contributor on two World Series champions ('04 Red Sox, '09 Yankees). Had power and speed, too. Did he do enough to make it? Baseball-Reference compares his career to Vada Pinson and Steve Finley, who are both on the outside looking in. Damon will stay on the ballot, but my guess is he falls short.
Andruw Jones -- A challenging career to evaluate. He was an all-time great defensive outfielder for the first part of his career and he hit well over 400 home runs. But when he started to decline, he was terrible. And his career batting average (.254) is not even close to HOF-worthy. Here's the upshot -- if you had to choose, would you choose Jones or Dale Murphy? Murphy is on the outside looking in. What makes Jones better? That's the question for the voters.
Johan Santana -- Really an interesting case. Was perhaps the best pitcher in baseball for a period of about five years, but once the arm trouble hit he was never the same. You could make an argument that he's essentially a modern-day Sandy Koufax; in fact, I've seen that argument made. Santana won the Cy Young award twice. His WAR (51.4) is slightly ahead of Koufax's (49.0). If Koufax, and for that matter Pedro Martinez, are HOF pitchers, and no one seriously disputes they are, Santana ought to get a look.

Will make it, but not on the first ballot

Scott Rolen -- he's Ron Santo, but with a better glove. He was always a dangerous hitter and a very smart player, too. He's not better than Chipper Jones, who we will discuss next, but he's a HOF player in my estimation. The only third baseman in this era who is better is Adrian Beltre, but Rolen will be in the HOF before Beltre hits the ballot.

First year, should be in

Jim Thome -- one of the all-time great power hitters. The only knock you might have on him is he wasn't a great defensive player, but a guy who hits 612 home runs is an all-timer. And even though he played in the heart of the Steroid Era, no one for a second suspected he was a user. The Paul Bunyan of baseball.

Chipper Jones  -- a no-brainer, first-ballot, mortal lock. Lifetime batting average of .303, 468 home runs. Not a great defensive player, but never a liability. Remarkably consistent career -- if you could get a guy in your lineup for 20 years who hit .300 and drove in 30 home runs and 105 RBI, would you take him? Of course you would.

Returning to the ballot

I expect Trevor Hoffman and Vladimir Guerrero to be elected this time, as both were over 70% on the balloting the previous year. I personally think Hoffman is overrated, but he was consistently good for a long time. I was a bit surprised that Vlady was as highly regarded the first time, but upon further consideration he has an excellent case for the HOF as a modern-day Andre Dawson type. Edgar Martinez is getting closer, but he may run out of time. Mike Mussina is climbing; he won't make it this year, but he should get there.

The interesting question is how we view Barry Bonds and Roger Clemens. Both were named on over 50% of the ballots the last time. Both are, of course, tainted with suspicion of using steroids. What makes it tough is this -- they were both HOF players before the Steroid Era really hit and if they'd simply retired, both would have been in the HOF. I don't know what to say about it. Meanwhile, the viability of the candidacies of Manny Ramirez and Gary Sheffield are both contingent on what happens with Clemens and Bonds.

Curt Schilling continues to hang around on the ballot, but I don't know if he'll make it. Benster thinks Larry Walker deserves more consideration than he's received thus far, a view that I'm coming around to -- yes, playing in Coors Field helped Walker, but he put up big numbers in Montreal, too, which was a terrible hitter's park. It's an endlessly fascinating subject. You can view the credentials of all the candidates at the invaluable Baseball-Reference website. Check it out.

HOF Day

We'll get the announcement regarding the new members of the Baseball Hall of Fame later today. The consensus is Jeff Bagwell and Tim Raines are going in, with potentially first-time ballot players Ivan Rodriguez and Vladimir Guerrero having a shot. I've written more extensively about the HOF elsewhere, but I think that would be a good class. Bagwell was a legitimately great player, but because he played in Houston he was often out of the spotlight.

This is the last year on the ballot for Raines, who would have been considered the greatest leadoff hitter in baseball history except for one thing -- he was an exact contemporary of Rickey Henderson, who was a greater player than Raines. One could make the argument that Henderson is one of the top 20 players in the history of the game, so falling short of that standard hardly seems like a disqualification for Raines. He's been worthy of induction since his first year on the ballot, in my view.

Rodriguez is an interesting case, because he has been linked to steroids, although it's never been proven. If you look at the objective numbers, he's arguably the greatest defensive catcher in history and his offensive numbers are comparable to Yogi Berra. He certainly belongs there on the merits.

I've give a little more thought to Vlad Guerrero, who was a great hitter (.318 batting average, the same as Kirby Puckett) and hit 449 homers. Those are really good numbers. He also was a good, if somewhat erratic, outfielder. No one has linked him to PEDs. He's more likely to get there sooner than Manny Ramirez, who was a better overall player but has two failed drug tests on his record.

The other guy who should be close is Trevor Hoffman, the longtime relief pitcher. I'm not sold on him as an HOF guy, but he's going to get in within the next year or two. It could even be this year.

The other story to watch -- will Barry Bonds or Roger Clemens get closer? They both have an undeniable PED taint to their careers, but I would argue both were lock HOF players before they got involved with the dark side, which was on the downside of their careers. I don't think either will make it this time, but if either of them get above the 50% threshold, it will mean the baseball writers are making their peace with the steroid era.

UPDATE: While it's not definitive, the Hall of Fame Tracker results suggest that Raines, Bagwell and Rodriguez will comprise the HOF Class of 2017. Trevor Hoffman and Vlad Guerrero may end up just short of the 75% threshold, while Edgar Martinez, Barry Bonds and Roger Clemens are now all well above 60%, suggesting their chances are good in subsequent years. Stay tuned!

A Hall of Fame Journey

Hey, did you hear that Journey is now in the Rock and Roll Hall of Fame? I've been getting crap from my siblings about it ever since the announcement was made yesterday, because I'm a known Journey-phobe.

I don't really care. I understand that a lot of bands have their fans and my music snobbery has largely subsided over the years. I am happy that ELO gets in this year. They were a great singles band and Jeff Lynne probably is the most accomplished of the late-period Beatlemanics.

Of the bands/performers on the outside, I'd say the biggest snub is Todd Rundgren, who has a strong resume, including a number of hits and strong work as a producer. There are others. The list of inductees is here. Who would you like to see join the Cleveland pantheon?

Baseball HOF Ballot -- A Quick Synopsis

Not worth writing about politics at the moment, so let's take a quick glance at the Baseball Hall of Fame ballot. Results are due shortly, so before we run out of time, my best guesses:

In this year:

1. Jeff Bagwell. Just short last year, with 71.6% of votes. Has always had the credentials, but played in the steroid era so like just about everyone not named Ken Griffey, Jr. he is viewed with suspicion. A great player nonetheless.
2. Tim Raines. Last chance, didn't miss by much last time with 69.8% of the votes. He should have been in on the first ballot, but playing much of your career in Montreal doesn't help, nor does being a direct contemporary of Rickey Henderson. Doesn't matter, though -- he should be in, and he will be.

Maybe:

1. Trevor Hoffman. Didn't miss by much, but I'm lukewarm about his candidacy. Relief pitching is different in the modern era and his value seems inflated. He will make it eventually, though.
2. Ivan Rodriguez. By the numbers and by the eye test, the best catcher of the modern era. Does have a steroid taint, though, which may keep him out for a while. An interesting case -- if he gets in, the floodgates may open for other players with similar problems, including another first time ballot player, Manny Ramirez.
3. Curt Schilling. A dominant post-season pitcher and one of the best power pitchers of his era. I prefer Mike Mussina, but Schilling has his advocates. He probably would be well served to keep some of his political opinions to himself, even though that shouldn't matter.

The rest of the players on the ballot, along with handy statistical summaries of their careers, can be found here. Unless I miss my guess, Arthur Rhodes and Casey Blake are going to fall short. 

Griffey and Piazza to the Hall

The results are now in and Ken Griffey Jr. and Mike Piazza will be the Class of 2016 for the Baseball Hall of Fame. A few quick thoughts:

• Griffey's vote percentage of 99.3% is the highest ever. I suspect he reached that level because he was the anti-Bonds. He's probably one of the top 20 players of all time, so it was a no-brainer.
• Piazza made it after three previous attempts. He's certainly the greatest offensive catcher in history. Some people question whether he was on the juice, but there is no evidence of that. A deserving choice.
• Jeff Bagwell and Tim Raines fell just short of induction. I think both will go in next year, as there aren't any obvious new candidates coming on to the ballot for the 2017 class; the two best players in the next group are Ivan Rodriguez and Manny Ramirez, who are both implicated in using PEDs; the only other new candidate who might have a chance is Vladimir Guerrero, but I would take Bagwell or Raines over him.
• Trevor Hoffman started out well and is likely to gain induction within the next two years. Curt Schilling and Mike Mussina are both likely to make it soon as well. I like all of these players.
• I've taken up the cause of Alan Trammell many times, so I won't revisit it. I think he deserves to be in the HOF, as does his double-play partner Lou Whitaker, who barely got a sniff. Those Detroit Tigers teams of the 1980s were excellent and the Trammell-Whitaker combination is arguably the best ever, when you factor in quality and longevity. The Veterans' Committee has some work to do.

Mr. D's Quick and Dirty Baseball Hall of Fame Synopsis

I have done more detailed Hall of Fame posts in recent years, but this year I'm going to be a little more, shall we say, impressionistic. So here we are. A quick comment on every player on this year's ballot -- sorry, Juan Rincon -- you didn't make the ballot, despite offering one of the best quotes in baseball history:

You are correct, sir!

Garrett Anderson — nice player, nice career, mostly with the Angels. Similar player to Ellis Burks. No chance.

Brad Ausmus — Currently, the manager of the Detroit Tigers. He had a good, long career as a catcher. No chance.

Jeff Bagwell — Bagwell has HOF-quality numbers for sure, but he's in the unfortunate space of being suspected (by some) but never formally accused of using performance enhancing drugs (PED). He should make it, eventually, and has a decent chance of getting in either this year or next.

Barry Bonds — One of the all time greats, but clearly a PED user. He’ll be waiting a while longer, but some day he will be in, once the great minds of baseball figure out how to handle cases like his.

Luis Castillo — A good player who spent time with the Twins in the mid-2000s. No chance.

Roger Clemens — see Bonds. One of the all-time greats, perhaps the best modern right-handed starter of all. Still, almost certainly was a PED user, and a bit of a jackass to boot. He might get in before Bonds because he won his court case, but it will be a while.

David Eckstein — to paraphrase Paul Simon, every generation throws a Freddie Patek up the pop charts. Nice player, but no chance.

Jim Edmonds — I like him, but I wonder. A serious question; was Edmonds better than Bernie Williams, who was summarily (and unfairly) dismissed? It will be interesting to see how his candidacy is viewed. I think he has a chance, but not this year.

Nomar Garciaparra — back for another round. Seems like a “Hall of the Very Good” guy to me. Won't make it this time.

Troy Glaus — Third baseman with serious power, which gives him a chance, but to me, not a HOF player.

Ken Griffey Jr. — An all-time great, no doubt about it, first ballot Hall of Famer. The only question is will he get 90% of the voters on his side, or will it be more than that?

Mark Grudzialanek — A well-traveled middle infielder with some power. Nice player, nice career. No chance.

Mike Hampton — I think pitching at Coors Field wrecked his career. A contemporary of Brad Radke and a comparable player with similar career numbers. Like Radke, he won't make it.

Trevor Hoffman — the most interesting candidate on the ballot. Great career numbers, but not necessarily a dominant player. How much value do you place on the work of a modern closer? He could get you one inning, usually about 40-50 times a season, for nearly two decades. He won't make it this year, but he could in the next few. If he doesn't get in the HOF before Mariano Rivera gets on the ballot, he might have to wait a while.

Jason Kendall — A good catcher, but not one that people are going to remember. Maybe he and Ausmus can have dinner after the results are announced. Kendall was a better hitter than Ausmus and perhaps a better overall player, but he's not HOF.

Jeff Kent — Another guy with great offensive numbers but he did not offer much in the field. He played most of his career at second base, so his numbers really stand out in that context, but his career was largely in the Steroid Era. He has a chance; it will be interesting to see if his vote total begins to rise.

Mike Lowell — nice player, nice career. No chance.

Edgar Martinez — one of the best hitters of his generation, but being a DH hurts him. If he’s going to get in the HOF, he’d better do it before David Ortiz hits the ballot.

Fred McGriff — No taint of steroids, which helps, but not a clutch player, so he's a bit of a borderline case. I like him, but I’m not sure he’s done enough. If given a choice, I would definitely take Bagwell first.

Mark McGwire — PEDs killed his candidacy. Maybe the Veterans’ Committee will give him a sniff down the line.

Mike Mussina — A consistently outstanding starting pitcher with a long career. I think he’s HOF worthy; he compares favorably to Bert Blyleven, who is in. Maybe not this year, but he will get there eventually.

Mike Piazza — He just missed last year, so I think he’ll get in this year. I still like Bagwell better, but Piazza is the best hitting catcher of all time, so it’s tough to see a reason to deny him. PED suspicions but nothing definitive.

Tim Raines — I've argued for him before; to me, he's a no doubt about it HOF guy. Not sure the BBWAA agrees. Has made progress, but he’d better see a jump this year or he's going to fall short.

Curt Schilling — Realy a big game pitcher, dominant at times. Also a controversial character; not sure if that hurts his candidacy. He has a chance in the next year or two, but I wonder why he’s a better candidate than Jack Morris, who is now on the outside looking in.

Gary Sheffield — PED user and a complete jackass. Also hit 500 home runs. He may get enough votes to stay on the ballot, but in the end I don’t think he’ll make it.

Lee Smith — A dominant closer whose career straddles the old school, Goose Gossage era and the modern, Mariano Rivera era. His career makes an interesting comparison with Hoffman's. He has not made much progress in getting votes and he's running out of time; I could make an argument for him, though.

Sammy Sosa — over 600 home runs, but a huge PED taint. He’ll be waiting a while.

Mike Sweeney — the best player on a lot of bad Royals teams. Honorable career, but not a HOF player.

Alan Trammell — This is his last year on the ballot and he’s not going to make it. That’s a travesty. I think the Veterans’ Committee will eventually rectify the error. He was a great player. I hope his old partner Lou Whitaker gets a sniff from the Veterans’ Committee some time, too.

Billy Wagner — A dominant closer, but not as long a career as Hoffman. Poor man’s Goose Gossage. I don’t personally think he’s HOF, but he has his advocates.

Larry Walker — how much do you value his numbers given his long stint in Coors Field? I’m on the fence about him. Some legitimately great seasons, including a few in a terrible hitting par in Montreal, which somewhat mitigates the inflation built into his Coors Field numbers. I think he's a borderline case.

Randy Winn — nice that he got on the ballot. No chance.

So, to sum up -- I think Griffey and Piazza make it this year, and perhaps Mussina and/or Bagwell. Place your bets.