Tuesday, November 24, 2015

Mr. D's Quick and Dirty Baseball Hall of Fame Synopsis

I have done more detailed Hall of Fame posts in recent years, but this year I'm going to be a little more, shall we say, impressionistic. So here we are. A quick comment on every player on this year's ballot -- sorry, Juan Rincon -- you didn't make the ballot, despite offering one of the best quotes in baseball history:

You are correct, sir!

Garrett Anderson — nice player, nice career, mostly with the Angels. Similar player to Ellis Burks. No chance.

Brad Ausmus — Currently, the manager of the Detroit Tigers. He had a good, long career as a catcher. No chance.

Jeff Bagwell — Bagwell has HOF-quality numbers for sure, but he's in the unfortunate space of being suspected (by some) but never formally accused of using performance enhancing drugs (PED). He should make it, eventually, and has a decent chance of getting in either this year or next.

Barry Bonds — One of the all time greats, but clearly a PED user. He’ll be waiting a while longer, but some day he will be in, once the great minds of baseball figure out how to handle cases like his.

Luis Castillo — A good player who spent time with the Twins in the mid-2000s. No chance.

Roger Clemens — see Bonds. One of the all-time greats, perhaps the best modern right-handed starter of all. Still, almost certainly was a PED user, and a bit of a jackass to boot. He might get in before Bonds because he won his court case, but it will be a while.

David Eckstein — to paraphrase Paul Simon, every generation throws a Freddie Patek up the pop charts. Nice player, but no chance.

Jim Edmonds — I like him, but I wonder. A serious question; was Edmonds better than Bernie Williams, who was summarily (and unfairly) dismissed? It will be interesting to see how his candidacy is viewed. I think he has a chance, but not this year.

Nomar Garciaparra — back for another round. Seems like a “Hall of the Very Good” guy to me. Won't make it this time.

Troy Glaus — Third baseman with serious power, which gives him a chance, but to me, not a HOF player.

Ken Griffey Jr. — An all-time great, no doubt about it, first ballot Hall of Famer. The only question is will he get 90% of the voters on his side, or will it be more than that?

Mark Grudzialanek — A well-traveled middle infielder with some power. Nice player, nice career. No chance.

Mike Hampton — I think pitching at Coors Field wrecked his career. A contemporary of Brad Radke and a comparable player with similar career numbers. Like Radke, he won't make it.

Trevor Hoffman — the most interesting candidate on the ballot. Great career numbers, but not necessarily a dominant player. How much value do you place on the work of a modern closer? He could get you one inning, usually about 40-50 times a season, for nearly two decades. He won't make it this year, but he could in the next few. If he doesn't get in the HOF before Mariano Rivera gets on the ballot, he might have to wait a while.

Jason Kendall — A good catcher, but not one that people are going to remember. Maybe he and Ausmus can have dinner after the results are announced. Kendall was a better hitter than Ausmus and perhaps a better overall player, but he's not HOF.

Jeff Kent — Another guy with great offensive numbers but he did not offer much in the field. He played most of his career at second base, so his numbers really stand out in that context, but his career was largely in the Steroid Era. He has a chance; it will be interesting to see if his vote total begins to rise.

Mike Lowell — nice player, nice career. No chance.

Edgar Martinez — one of the best hitters of his generation, but being a DH hurts him. If he’s going to get in the HOF, he’d better do it before David Ortiz hits the ballot.

Fred McGriff — No taint of steroids, which helps, but not a clutch player, so he's a bit of a borderline case. I like him, but I’m not sure he’s done enough. If given a choice, I would definitely take Bagwell first.

Mark McGwire — PEDs killed his candidacy. Maybe the Veterans’ Committee will give him a sniff down the line.

Mike Mussina — A consistently outstanding starting pitcher with a long career. I think he’s HOF worthy; he compares favorably to Bert Blyleven, who is in. Maybe not this year, but he will get there eventually.

Mike Piazza — He just missed last year, so I think he’ll get in this year. I still like Bagwell better, but Piazza is the best hitting catcher of all time, so it’s tough to see a reason to deny him. PED suspicions but nothing definitive.

Tim Raines — I've argued for him before; to me, he's a no doubt about it HOF guy. Not sure the BBWAA agrees. Has made progress, but he’d better see a jump this year or he's going to fall short.

Curt Schilling — Realy a big game pitcher, dominant at times. Also a controversial character; not sure if that hurts his candidacy. He has a chance in the next year or two, but I wonder why he’s a better candidate than Jack Morris, who is now on the outside looking in.

Gary Sheffield — PED user and a complete jackass. Also hit 500 home runs. He may get enough votes to stay on the ballot, but in the end I don’t think he’ll make it.

Lee Smith — A dominant closer whose career straddles the old school, Goose Gossage era and the modern, Mariano Rivera era. His career makes an interesting comparison with Hoffman's. He has not made much progress in getting votes and he's running out of time; I could make an argument for him, though.

Sammy Sosa — over 600 home runs, but a huge PED taint. He’ll be waiting a while.

Mike Sweeney — the best player on a lot of bad Royals teams. Honorable career, but not a HOF player.

Alan Trammell — This is his last year on the ballot and he’s not going to make it. That’s a travesty. I think the Veterans’ Committee will eventually rectify the error. He was a great player. I hope his old partner Lou Whitaker gets a sniff from the Veterans’ Committee some time, too.

Billy Wagner — A dominant closer, but not as long a career as Hoffman. Poor man’s Goose Gossage. I don’t personally think he’s HOF, but he has his advocates.

Larry Walker — how much do you value his numbers given his long stint in Coors Field? I’m on the fence about him. Some legitimately great seasons, including a few in a terrible hitting par in Montreal, which somewhat mitigates the inflation built into his Coors Field numbers. I think he's a borderline case.

Randy Winn — nice that he got on the ballot. No chance.

So, to sum up -- I think Griffey and Piazza make it this year, and perhaps Mussina and/or Bagwell. Place your bets.

2 comments:

Steve Taylor said...

Jim Bouton had some thoughts on dealing with PED usage:

https://www.jimbouton.com/index.html

Mr. D said...

Interesting idea, Steve. Not a bad approach, but too many people in baseball would want to protect their turf, so I don't see anything like what Bouton proposes ever happening, unfortunately.