Quick and Dirty Baseball HOF Roundup

Who will join them?

It kinda snuck up on me this year, but it's a tradition and I have a little time this morning, so let's get to it, especially since the announcement will take place later today. The Veteran's Committee will weigh in later and that's worth a separate post.

First year candidates with no chance include:

Brad Lidge -- a good relief pitcher for a few years.
Jason Isringhausen -- a decent pitcher who never did anything notable.
Aubrey Huff -- a first baseman/outfielder type who lasted longer than you'd have expected.
Carlos Lee -- El Caballo. A power hitting outfielder who wasn't very good defensively.
Kevin Millwood -- a poor man's Brad Radke.
Orlando Hudson -- a good player, nothing more.
Carlos Zambrano -- a dominant pitcher at times, but could not sustain his career.
Chris Carpenter -- at times, a very good pitcher. Not enough of a career to go forward, though.

First year curiosities with no chance include:

Hideki Matsui -- a pretty good player, but not great. Came over from Japan and acquitted himself well.
Kerry Wood -- dominant power pitcher who blew out his arm and never really recovered. Tried to come back as a reliever, but only had one good year at that.
Livan Hernandez -- came over from Cuba and had a long career. Overall win/loss record was 178-177, which sums him up.

Five guys who will get more than one look:

Jamie Moyer -- similar profile to Tommy John and Jim Kaat, but in the modern era. Never dominant, but generally good and pitched until he was almost 50. He'll probably fall short for the same reason Kaat and John have, but winning 269 games in the major leagues is a hell of an accomplishment.
Omar Vizquel -- a long, distinguished career. Great defensive shortstop, many Gold Gloves. Not a great hitter. There are worse shortstops than Vizquel already in the Hall of Fame, but that doesn't mean he'll get there. I expect he'll be a source of much discussion for the next ten years.
Johnny Damon -- Very good hitter and defensive outfielder who was a key contributor on two World Series champions ('04 Red Sox, '09 Yankees). Had power and speed, too. Did he do enough to make it? Baseball-Reference compares his career to Vada Pinson and Steve Finley, who are both on the outside looking in. Damon will stay on the ballot, but my guess is he falls short.
Andruw Jones -- A challenging career to evaluate. He was an all-time great defensive outfielder for the first part of his career and he hit well over 400 home runs. But when he started to decline, he was terrible. And his career batting average (.254) is not even close to HOF-worthy. Here's the upshot -- if you had to choose, would you choose Jones or Dale Murphy? Murphy is on the outside looking in. What makes Jones better? That's the question for the voters.
Johan Santana -- Really an interesting case. Was perhaps the best pitcher in baseball for a period of about five years, but once the arm trouble hit he was never the same. You could make an argument that he's essentially a modern-day Sandy Koufax; in fact, I've seen that argument made. Santana won the Cy Young award twice. His WAR (51.4) is slightly ahead of Koufax's (49.0). If Koufax, and for that matter Pedro Martinez, are HOF pitchers, and no one seriously disputes they are, Santana ought to get a look.

Will make it, but not on the first ballot

Scott Rolen -- he's Ron Santo, but with a better glove. He was always a dangerous hitter and a very smart player, too. He's not better than Chipper Jones, who we will discuss next, but he's a HOF player in my estimation. The only third baseman in this era who is better is Adrian Beltre, but Rolen will be in the HOF before Beltre hits the ballot.

First year, should be in

Jim Thome -- one of the all-time great power hitters. The only knock you might have on him is he wasn't a great defensive player, but a guy who hits 612 home runs is an all-timer. And even though he played in the heart of the Steroid Era, no one for a second suspected he was a user. The Paul Bunyan of baseball.

Chipper Jones  -- a no-brainer, first-ballot, mortal lock. Lifetime batting average of .303, 468 home runs. Not a great defensive player, but never a liability. Remarkably consistent career -- if you could get a guy in your lineup for 20 years who hit .300 and drove in 30 home runs and 105 RBI, would you take him? Of course you would.

Returning to the ballot

I expect Trevor Hoffman and Vladimir Guerrero to be elected this time, as both were over 70% on the balloting the previous year. I personally think Hoffman is overrated, but he was consistently good for a long time. I was a bit surprised that Vlady was as highly regarded the first time, but upon further consideration he has an excellent case for the HOF as a modern-day Andre Dawson type. Edgar Martinez is getting closer, but he may run out of time. Mike Mussina is climbing; he won't make it this year, but he should get there.

The interesting question is how we view Barry Bonds and Roger Clemens. Both were named on over 50% of the ballots the last time. Both are, of course, tainted with suspicion of using steroids. What makes it tough is this -- they were both HOF players before the Steroid Era really hit and if they'd simply retired, both would have been in the HOF. I don't know what to say about it. Meanwhile, the viability of the candidacies of Manny Ramirez and Gary Sheffield are both contingent on what happens with Clemens and Bonds.

Curt Schilling continues to hang around on the ballot, but I don't know if he'll make it. Benster thinks Larry Walker deserves more consideration than he's received thus far, a view that I'm coming around to -- yes, playing in Coors Field helped Walker, but he put up big numbers in Montreal, too, which was a terrible hitter's park. It's an endlessly fascinating subject. You can view the credentials of all the candidates at the invaluable Baseball-Reference website. Check it out.