- The format was terrible. It was all about goading the candidates to trash talk one another. And we might have finally found the way to silence Hugh Hewitt, who might as well have been on a milk carton.
- The Donald had a rough evening, but it may not matter, since many of his supporters aren't looking for wonkery. At some point Trump is going to need to offer specifics. I'm not sure his specifics will comport to the base as well as his attitude does.
- Carly Fiorina was impressive. Not surprising, because you don't get to the C-Suite in Corporate America unless you have presence and polish. She gets dinged for losing to Barbara Boxer, but I would suggest the California electorate is hardly representative of the rest of the country. I'm not sure how her skill set translates to political leadership, but she's going to rise in the polls for sure.
- I'm pretty sure Scott Walker was at the debate, but he was on camera about as much as Hugh Hewitt. I'm afraid Walker isn't going to make it, which is unfortunate because I think he has demonstrated the proper skill set in Wisconsin.
- There's a lot to like about Ben Carson, but he's not going to be president. It's evident that he thinks before he speaks and while we could use a thoughtful individual in the White House, that's not the prototype.
- John Kasich is running for president. Not sure why, though.
- Jeb Bush is going to stick around because he has a lot of money and even more institutional support from the old guard, but I'm pretty sure his moment has passed.
- I'm starting to think Marco Rubio is the guy to watch. He's made enemies with his unfortunate and unsuccessful alliance with Chuck Schumer, but I doubt that allegiance will be fatal.
- Mike Huckabee can go home now.
- Chris Christie was forceful, but he's not going to make it, either. We haven't elected a fat guy to be president since William Howard Taft.
- I like Ted Cruz, but there's something about his manner that's always seemed a little off. He almost comes off as Robert Mitchum in "Night of the Hunter." If he has "LOVE" and "HATE" tattooed on his fingers, we'll have confirmation.
- I also like Rand Paul, but he's got no chance.
Lemme know your thoughts in the comments.
3 comments:
I'm with you on Fiorina--but if she gets the nod, she needs to have an explanation for her experience at HP--it's not quite like Trump's junk bonds and four bankruptcies, but not exactly an endorsement for fiscal savvy, either.
Fiorina had almost no campaign when she ran for senate. i'd be willing to bet 50% of the voters (i mean the ones who showed up) didnt even know who she was.
much of this is because our media just doesnt cover state politics or elections.
Great thoughts, D. A few random additions to your observations:
* The only 3 hours I want to spend in front of a TV watching one thing is a football game. And sometimes not even that.
* A story in the Washington Post referencing some of Walker's financial backers starting to look for other horses to place their bets on makes me think of Bush. At what point do the contributors who flooded Right to Rise's coffers look at Jeb's polling numbers, and massive unfavorables, and conclude he's not the best "establishment" candidate. If/when it happens, I'd expect Rubio's bank account to soar, in particular.
* For all the complaining about the rules on who was allowed to participate in the debates, can we agree that a double-digit debate is unruly at best? At some point, the organizers of these things are going to have to shut the door on the candidate who, despite horrible polling and little money, refuse to leave.
* I think we're at "Peak Trump", or close to it - can he really go beyond 30%ish in a 16-candidate field? Watching the inevitable decline of those numbers (no candidate only sees their numbers go up forever, even if he somehow wins the nomination) will be a realty show onto itself.
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