- I was surprised Jeff Johnson won, but in retrospect I should have seen his victory over Tim Pawlenty coming a mile away. Johnson was the GOP nominee in 2014, so he's hardly a newcomer. Pawlenty had a lot of money behind him, but little rationale behind his campaign. In important respects, the dynamic was the same as what happened to Tommy Thompson when he lost to Tammy Baldwin in the senate race in Wisconsin in 2012; the brand name is rarely enough and the politician with the name still has to make the sale. The business about Pawlenty's dissing of Trump was a factor, but Pawlenty's evident disdain in dealing with the state party (he blew off the nominating process and the convention) was far more important. Johnson has been campaigning hard all year. The party activists were out in force and they voted for Johnson. Other than an ad attacking Johnson, Pawlenty was barely visible. Pawlenty thought he was invincible. Guess not.
- On the DFL side, Tim Walz will be hard to beat. He has a dozen years of experience pretending to be a moderate and he'll tack to the center now that he has the DFL nomination, but operationally he's no different than Erin Murphy. Johnson's task will be to demonstrate that Walz is a phony. As for Lori Swanson, good riddance. We can also hope that Mike Hatch, the éminence grise behind Swanson, is finally gone as well.
- I wonder how Alliance for a Better Minnesota is going to play things now. They were clearly planning to carpet-bomb T-Paw, but he's gone. Let's see what the big brains do.
- Keith Ellison is a dumpster fire, but he won the Attorney General's race easily. Can he make the sale statewide? I suspect Doug Wardlow, the GOP nominee, will get some help. Ellison is a deeply corrupt individual and the notion that he should be attorney general is preposterous, but those three letters after his name carry a lot of weight.
- Ilhan Omar is a fraud, too, but she's almost certainly going to Congress. The good news is she'll be a nonentity backbencher. Betty McCollum will save a seat for her.
Game on!
3 comments:
I heard Pawlenty speak a couple of times to various groups recently before he announced and he actually laid out a fairly compelling message of technological innovation to minimize the government's role in society. I thought it was well-delivered and timely - it was also a message I never heard in earnest from his campaign.
Unfortunately, the MN GOP now marches to the general with a candidate who is effectively broke and won't have national resources to assist him (the GOP Governor's Association only announced their fall ad buys after Pawlenty got into the race). My fear isn't that Johnson loses - that cake has been mostly baked - but that groups like the Alliance for a Better Minnesota turn their largesse against the State Legislature, allowing the DFL to win enough seats to take the majority.
The MN GOP hasn't won a statewide race in 12 years and hasn't had a candidate get 50%-plus of the vote since 1994. Ellison's abuse allegations, coupled with his past associations, might put the AG's seat up for grabs enough for the GOP to win, but outside of that, I'm hard pressed to see who else can win right now.
FWIW, I didn't think the GOP primary came down to guaranteed victory vs guaranteed defeat - given our history, I thought it'd be tough for either of them to win. But at least Pawlenty had won statewide before and had the resources to compete. Johnson didn't. I'll still gladly vote for Jeff, but I won't be expecting much.
Good comments, John. Thanks!
I heard Pawlenty speak a couple of times to various groups recently before he announced and he actually laid out a fairly compelling message of technological innovation to minimize the government's role in society. I thought it was well-delivered and timely - it was also a message I never heard in earnest from his campaign.
Too bad. It might have helped him.
Unfortunately, the MN GOP now marches to the general with a candidate who is effectively broke and won't have national resources to assist him (the GOP Governor's Association only announced their fall ad buys after Pawlenty got into the race). My fear isn't that Johnson loses - that cake has been mostly baked - but that groups like the Alliance for a Better Minnesota turn their largesse against the State Legislature, allowing the DFL to win enough seats to take the majority.
That’s the big question – will the money go away now that T-Paw is gone? Or will the big donors decide Johnson has a chance? Walz has never won a statewide race, either. We’re not privy to those machinations, of course. As for ABM, that’s a great question. If I were Jeff Johnson, I’d make ABM an issue starting right now. Start asking why millionaires are buying up statewide offices for the DFL. Might as well go full-on populist.
The MN GOP hasn't won a statewide race in 12 years and hasn't had a candidate get 50%-plus of the vote since 1994. Ellison's abuse allegations, coupled with his past associations, might put the AG's seat up for grabs enough for the GOP to win, but outside of that, I'm hard pressed to see who else can win right now.
Again, I’m not convinced Walz is a great candidate. He almost got beat in 2016 and he isn’t well-known in much of the state. It’s certainly the smart bet to assume that Walz will win, but he doesn’t have a magic name like Dayton or Klobuchar. Walz will have to be a better candidate than Mark Dayton ever was to win.
FWIW, I didn't think the GOP primary came down to guaranteed victory vs guaranteed defeat - given our history, I thought it'd be tough for either of them to win. But at least Pawlenty had won statewide before and had the resources to compete. Johnson didn't. I'll still gladly vote for Jeff, but I won't be expecting much.
Yep. Thanks again for your smart observations, John!
The thing that struck me around Rochester was the vitriol that was poured out upon Jim Hagedorn by Carla Nelson's organization; what ever happened to the 11th Commandment from Reagan?
Regarding Walz, he can be beaten if his time in DC and allegiance with the DFL, including that with Ellison, can be hung around his neck. Hopefully I can save a few sheckels for Johnson and Hagedorn.
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