A new Marquette Law School Poll shows that with three weeks to go until the recall election Governor Scott Walker has taken a six-percentage point lead over Milwaukee Mayor Tom Barrett, 50-44 percent, among likely voters. Just three percent say they are undecided. In the previous poll, taken April 26-29, Walker held a one-percentage point lead among likely voters, 48-47. Lt. Governor Rebecca Kleefisch holds a 47 to 41-percentage point lead over Professional Fire Fighters of Wisconsin president Mahlon Mitchell in that recall election, with 10 percent undecided.
Meanwhile, there's this:
With just three weeks until the June 5 recall election in Wisconsin, Democrats in the state are still waiting for a check they asked the Democratic National Committee to send. And the Obama campaign hasn’t given them any cash either.So what's happening? A few guesses:
“I think [there’s] the perception that there’s not enough overall national money, national support from both individual donors and D.C. coming through the door and we’ve got three weeks — we need that money now,” said a Wisconsin Democratic operative. “I think that’s individual donors from around the country, I think that’s the DNC, I think that’s labor, I think that’s super PACs, I think that’s whoever is willing to contribute to make that gap smaller.”
- From what I hear, a lot of people are just tired of it all. Wisconsin has been in continuous campaign mode for nearly 3 years now and while I'm not certain that Scott Walker has completely won over the populace, I suspect that there's a growing understanding that constant recalls are not particularly helpful, either.
- I suspect the money isn't forthcoming from the DNC or the Obama campaign for a simple reason: they don't have as much as they thought they would. And as it turns out, the Obama campaign is going to need the money.
- The larger problem for Wisconsin Democrats is this -- they don't have any good candidates to offer. Tom Barrett has lost twice before when he's run for statewide office. Kathleen Falk, who was the favorite of the screeching unions who forced all this drama in the first place, was not even compelling enough of a choice to get past the primary. Meanwhile, in the upcoming Senate race, the Democrats are sending up Tammy Baldwin, who is the very model of a Madison liberal, who is running behind two of her potential opponents.
So all this augurs well for Walker. Is what's happening in Wisconsin now a potential preview of what might happen in November? Maybe.