Friday, November 02, 2012

Place Your Bets - UPDATED!

I made the following prediction back in October. And I stand by it:

Still the same
The most likely states to flip, at this point:

Ohio to Obama
Iowa to Obama
Wisconsin to Obama -- if Obama gets Wisconsin and Ohio, he wins
New Hampshire to Obama
Pennsylvania to Romney -- if so, it's a rout
Minnesota to Romney -- not likely, but not completely out of the realm of possibility
Nevada to Romney -- slightly more likely than Minnesota

I made the point earlier about turnout and it's key. The state polls assume that the success of Obama's GOTV efforts will be close to what they were in 2008. I'm not seeing it, which is why I think Romney will win.

You can make your picks at this website. If you make a map, email it to me (contact info is on my profile page) and I'll add it to this post. Otherwise, give me the skinny in the comments.

I will make a donation to the favorite charity of the commenter who comes closest to the actual result. We'll settle that up later. Play on, playas!

****

UPDATE (9 a.m., 11/3): Two more potential maps. First -- ace prognosticator Benster weighs in:


If this one comes through, it will be the genius pick of all time, as I'd wager that Benster is the only pundit out there who senses an Obama surge in Nebraska. The interesting thing here -- some pundits have said that Romney needs an "alternative path" should Ohio not go his way. Benster provides one and says that path includes Wisconsin, Michigan and Minnesota. I like it -- gutsy stuff, young fella!

Meanwhile, here's Picklesworth's prognostication:


More optimistic than I am, in that he gives Romney PA, NV and the rogue Maine district. This would be close to the best-case scenario. We'll take more picks -- send 'em in!



UPDATE (9:55 a.m., 11/3). Let's bring in an expert. Michael Barone is probably the dean of political analysts in the country and essentially the exemplar of the sort of pundit that the Nate Silvers of the world would consign the ash heap. Barone's picks are detailed here. His map would read as follows:


The big difference between Barone's map and my map is that he has Pennsylvania going to Romney. His explanation:
Pennsylvania (20). Everyone would have picked Obama two weeks ago. I think higher turnout in pro-coal Western Pennsylvania and higher Republican percentages in the Philadelphia suburbs could produce a surprise. The Romney team evidently thinks so too. Their investment in TV time is too expensive to be a mere feint, and, as this is written, Romney is planning a Sunday event in Bucks County outside Philly. Wobbling on my limb, Romney.
Keep sending 'em in, folks! I think everyone wants to see Dick's map.

UPDATE (11 a.m., 11/3):  Brian's map is below.


The differences -- he has Obama taking Ohio, Wisconsin, New Hampshire, Colorado and the rogue Nebraska district. He made his prediction in a post over at his place. Here's the analysis:

I think Obama holds onto his leaners (PA, IA, OH, WI, and NV), ekes it out in NH and CO, while Romney holds onto FL, wins handily in NC, and just barely takes VA. Obama gets one district in NE.
It could happen. Keep sendin' 'em in!

UPDATE (7:50 p.m., 11/3)

Dick's Picks are in the house. No mention of an overindulgent 34 minute version of "Dark Star," either:

God save the child who rings that bell/It may have one good ring, baby, you can't tell

Dick is more bullish than Brian, believing that Romney will also lose VA, but thinking that Omaha will not abandon Romney. I would call this pretty much the full Nate Silver pick. Guess we'll find out soon enough.

Keep sendin' 'em in, folks -- a splendid time is guaranteed for all.

UPDATE (7:44 a.m., 11/4) And Chuckwagon Boy chimes in:

Same as Dick

And Chuckwagon Boy's rationale?

Here is my reasoning: He is ahead in almost all of the battleground state polls, Intrade Odds (http://www.intrade.com/v4/markets/?eventId=84326), Real Clear Politics, Five Thirty Blog (http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/) and on the Princeton Election Consortium (http://election.princeton.edu/). In the 2008 election Silver predicted 49 out of 50 states and all the 35 Federal Senate seats that were open. Intrade predicted Bush would win in 2004 along with getting each state right and in 2008 predicted Obama to win while correctly predicting 48 out of 50 states. Right now they have at 66.6% chance of Obama winning.

The only people who seem to have Romney winning are right-wing people which is not a good sign. Dick Morris is way out there and even Rove is predicting a Romney win. Since Rove has been more accurate in the past I give him more credence and he may even be correct. It will come down to are the national or the state polls correct? If it is the national ones then it will be close, but if it is the state polls then it will be Obama. Plus I feel that Romney's momentum has stopped and Obama is really being helped by his response to the hurricane and from all of the gushing praise of Christie. The Bengazhi issue is only big to right-wingers and not to the country at large - in my opinion.
All of that could be true, or not. The most questionable assertion here is that Romney's momentum has stopped. If the proverbial Man from Mars took a look at the sizes of the crowds that are coming to see Romney and Ryan vs. those coming to see Obama and Biden, he wouldn't conclude that at all.

I suspect I'll have a lot more to say about the "almost all of the battleground state polls" argument later on as well. I took a little spin through some of the polls that Nate Silver relies on and let's just say that I wouldn't rely on them. But we'll see.

Keep sendin' 'em in -- would love to hear from a few other regular readers as well!

UPDATE (7:15 p.m., 11/5) And the inimitable First Ringer rings the bell:


The difference between FR's and mine -- he does not give New Hampshire to Romney. His explanation, which rings true for me, is as follows:

At stake in this election - for pollsters - is the very heart of polling methodology. If you simply go off of aggregate data, you'll get RCP's 303-235 Obama win. But so many of those polls suggest an electorate that rivals (or surpasses!) 2008 partisan breakdowns. There simply isn't enough evidence to make such numbers stick - either anecodtally or analytically.

I end up with 291-247 in favor of Romney. Iowa, Ohio, Wisconsin & Colorado make up the difference (most pollsters seem to have FL, VA & NC in Romney's total already).

My caveat would be this: the one trend almost all pollsters seem to agree on is Romney winning independents, and by decent margins. If that's the case, I don't see how Obama wins short of recreating the turnout margins he had in '08.
This last bit is what has intrigued me the most about this cycle. It's possible that Obama enthusiasm actually surpasses what we saw in '08, but if that is the case it's the most silent version of enthusiasm I've ever seen. There would have to be millions of satisfied customers (so to speak) that aren't apparent to most observers. If the electorate is greater than the D +7 it was in 2008, Obama will win. I don't see that happening.

134 comments:

Benster said...

Hey Dad its me Ben. I say Mitt gets 288 votes to Obama's 250. I flipped both Minnesota and Wisconsin because Ryan is from Wisconsin and Wisconsin is fed up with Democrats and Minnesota isnt as blue as one might think

If I win I would like you to donate to Honor Flight which takes WW2 vets out to DC to see memorials before they die.

Gino said...

hmm... WW2 vets.
the greediest generation: they got all the bennies, all the pay outs, even more than that, and then some....

if they didnt get to DC on their own, they were probably too hung over to catch the bus.

Mr. D said...

Gino,

If you saw honor flight, you'd perhaps feel differently about it.

Brian said...

My map is here:

http://www.270towin.com/2012_election_predictions.php?mapid=PiY

I showed my work here:

http://www.samedishdifferentsauce.blogspot.com/2012/10/the-math-final-edition.html

Mr. D said...

Thanks, Brian -- I'm going to add your map to the post.

W.B. Picklesworth said...

BTW, I tried to make a map for Senate picks, but found that that wasn't an available option. I'm considerably more pessimistic on that front, figuring that many people who vote to be rid of Obama will be happy to have a split Congress.

Split governance is generally a good thing and I hope it will be this time, though it will make it difficult to draw and quarter Obamacare, burn it with fire and send it to the bottom of the ocean where it can pollute life forms that have a dark existence anyway.

Anonymous said...

Here's Dick's Picks:

http://www.270towin.com/2012_election_predictions.php?mapid=bgds

Good luck!
Dick

Mr. D said...

Thank you sir -- will be posting those shortly.

Chuckwagon Boy said...

Here are my picks. It looks like I am thinking the same way as Dick!

http://www.270towin.com/

Here is my reasoning: He is ahead in almost all of the battleground state polls, Intrade Odds (http://www.intrade.com/v4/markets/?eventId=84326), Real Clear Politics, Five Thirty Blog (http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/) and on the Princeton Election Consortium (http://election.princeton.edu/). In the 2008 election Silver predicted 49 out of 50 states and all the 35 Federal Senate seats that were open. Intrade predicted Bush would win in 2004 along with getting each state right and in 2008 predicted Obama to win while correctly predicting 48 out of 50 states. Right now they have at 66.6% chance of Obama winning.

The only people who seem to have Romney winning are right-wing people which is not a good sign. Dick Morris is way out there and even Rove is predicting a Romney win. Since Rove has been more accurate in the past I give him more credence and he may even be correct. It will come down to are the national or the state polls correct? If it is the national ones then it will be close, but if it is the state polls then it will be Obama. Plus I feel that Romney's momentum has stopped and Obama is really being helped by his response to the hurricane and from all of the gushing praise of Christie. The Bengazhi issue is only big to right-wingers and not to the country at large - in my opinion.

Final figures: I have Obama winning 303 electoral votes and winning the popular vote by 3 to 6%.

Chuckwagon Boy said...

Oops, this is my right url:

http://www.270towin.com/2012_election_predictions.php?mapid=bgLM

Mr. D said...

Thanks for playing, CB -- am adding your pick now.

First Ringer said...

Since I comment enough here, I figured I ought to put some skin in the game and make a prediction as well.

At stake in this election - for pollsters - is the very heart of polling methodology. If you simply go off of aggregate data, you'll get RCP's 303-235 Obama win. But so many of those polls suggest an electorate that rivals (or surpasses!) 2008 partisan breakdowns. There simply isn't enough evidence to make such numbers stick - either anecodtally or analytically.

I end up with 291-247 in favor of Romney. Iowa, Ohio, Wisconsin & Colorado make up the difference (most pollsters seem to have FL, VA & NC in Romney's total already).

My caveat would be this: the one trend almost all pollsters seem to agree on is Romney winning independents, and by decent margins. If that's the case, I don't see how Obama wins short of recreating the turnout margins he had in '08.

http://www.270towin.com/2012_election_predictions.php?mapid=bkAZ

Brian said...

So is anyone predicting against what they want to happen?

W.B. Picklesworth said...

Brian, I am predicting against what I want to have happen in the Senate, but not in the presidential race. But you point to an interesting dynamic this year. People on both sides really think they are going to win and that evidence exists to support their conclusions. It's likely that a whole lot of people are going to be blindsided tomorrow. Electoral trauma! I wonder which side would be more surprised and torn up?

Night Writer said...

Soon it will all be over but the lawyering.

Mr. D said...

Thanks, FR -- I'll include your map!

Brian, in my case I am picking what I want to happen, but I also happen to believe quite sincerely that what I want to happen is going to happen, for reasons I've discussed at some length. The one thing that's different this year is that I've never seen a situation where the partisans have both thought that their side is going to win with as much certainty as we've seen this time. In '04, the Kerry people weren't nearly as certain as the Obama people are in this cycle.

One thing will be decided this time -- either polling is broken, or the time-honored tradition of reporting and observation is obsolete. It's a fascinating question to resolve.

Brian said...

Actually I see your friend Mr. Carlson has predicted an Obama victory (while pretty clearly hoping to be wrong about it.)

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