Now that election day is finally here, we're supposed to believe that there's been some great trend or rally that will stanch Republican losses, perhaps even to allow the GOP to fend off a Democratic majority in the House of Representatives. I'm pretty skeptical about all this.
Regular readers of this feature know that I am fond of what is known as Occam's Razor, or the principle of parsimony. Occam's Razor, named after a medieval cleric named William of Occam, holds that the simplest explanation is usually the best explanation. When faced with the avalanche of nonsense that has been this political season, I think we should take the word of the Ocmeister on this.
We could believe that people have been waiting to take out their frustrations about the war on the Republicans, but that they are getting cold feet now that the election is nigh. Or, we can pick up the razor and conclude something more simple: most people don't have time to pay attention to politics until they have to. Once they do, they make their choices based on common sense. Since it is common sense not to surrender in a war, the Democrats won't do as well as they'd hoped in this election.
We can also conclude that the polling has been mostly nonsense, too. Every reputable pollster admits that it is becoming more difficult each year to reach a representative sampling. Many people screen their calls, or no longer have land line phones, or both. As a result, samples are increasingly contrivances. What would fair Occam say? Unless you can get a representative sample, polls are crap. And since you can't, polls are crap.
Will these observations prove out? We'll find out tomorrow. If I'm wrong, you can safely conclude that Mr. Dilettante is full of crap, just like the polls.
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