- Dave Thompson is going to get the endorsement for governor. He's worked quietly, in large measure because his campaign doesn't necessarily have the resources that some of his opponents have, but in the end I suspect he'll prevail because he's a little more in tune with the grassroots of the party than his opponents and his campaign has done a nice job of moving his supporters through to the convention. It will take at least two ballots to get there, but Thompson will get it. Whether he can win a primary against Marty Seifert and well-heeled Scott Honour is another matter, but we'll worry about that when the time comes.
- I'm not sure anyone will leave with the Senate endorsement, and frankly all the candidates have issues. I heard a little of Mike McFadden on the radio yesterday morning and he's improved his game somewhat, but I'm still not convinced that he's the right guy for the job -- he's got money and a lot of institutional backing, but he doesn't do much for the people who will actually need to hit the streets to help his campaign. Julianne Ortman has been a mixed bag in her legislative career, but she does carry the Sarah Palin Seal of Approval, which might help her in some, but not all, precincts of the party. Jim Abeler is a nonstarter.
- So where does that leave us? With a primary fight and a test of the party's strength, especially in getting its endorsed candidates through to the actual ballot.
Thursday, May 29, 2014
Not going to Rochester
I won't be there for the state Republican convention, but I'll make a few guesses:
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3 comments:
I'll be at the convention (wife and I are delegates in SD35) but this will be my final one as a delegate.
I'm an advocate of closed primaries which take place late Spring/early Summer. I have a feeling that this election cycle will prove once and for all how flawed and ineffective the endorsement process has become.
I'm an advocate of closed primaries which take place late Spring/early Summer. I have a feeling that this election cycle will prove once and for all how flawed and ineffective the endorsement process has become.
I suspect the same thing and agree with you, my friend. There will be a lot of people who won't want to give up the ritual, but as a practical matter the current system puts the candidates at a disadvantage.
If your predictive abilities for the endorsement are as good as your reasoning for going to primary-only, then endorsement will be around a long time. :-) The problem isn't the process, it is that it isn't being "used" properly. It needs three things.
First, the endorsement needs to be tantamount to victory. That is, the Party must be able and willing to put up the volunteers and money to push their choice over the finish line. This makes the endorsement important and draws candidates into the process.
Second, it becomes necessary for the delegates to make better, more practical decisions on who they endorse. I've been saying that delegates can endorse whomever they want, so long as they are able to go out and raise $2000 EACH, and convince 1000 Minnesotans EACH to vote for their choice. It's a lot easier if you pick the right candidate.
Third, the primary is set for August, by law. Unless that it changed, Republicans cripple themselves going to a primary, far more than Democrats do. Even if they do win the primary, the big money has already gone to the "sure" candidates, a lot of money has already been spent destroying the Republican candidates (both by other Republicans and by Democrats), and there simply isn't enough time or money to run a race against a big-money Democrat.
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