SD41 Convention -- Some Impressions (Part Two)

Continuing on with our report from SD41, we did get many of the major candidates for governor and senate yesterday. Here's what I saw -- all of the pictures are directly from the candidates's respective websites:

In a hurry

Marty Seifert frustrates the hell out of a lot of people. He's honed his game significantly since he lost the endorsement to Tom Emmer in 2010; you could feel the charge in the air when he entered the room. In addition, the qualities that I admired about him when I wrote about him back in 2010 are intact. He's got an encyclopedic knowledge of the issues and he's exceptionally quick on his feet. He demonstrated all those skills at our convention. I've argued before that he has a lot of bad votes on his record because he was forced to carry water for Tim Pawlenty, so I'm willing to give him some latitude on that. Having said that, Seifert's refusal to abide by the endorsement process makes this campaign a fool's errand. He's not going to prevail at the state convention because he's alienated a lot of people within the party. And if he runs in the primary, all he'll really accomplish is to drain resources away from the party at a time when they will need every penny to keep the focus on Mark Dayton. It's easy to forget because Seifert has been around for a while, but he's only 41 years old. He has plenty of time left in his career. He won't take this advice, but I'll offer it anyway. What Seifert ought to do is run against Collin Peterson in CD-7 in the next cycle, because I'm pretty sure he could beat Peterson. He could then serve in Washington for a few terms and then run for governor or the senate at some point in the future. He won't be 50 until 2022. If he plays his cards correctly, he'll have a chance to be a major political player in Minnesota for the next 20-25 years. But if he becomes persona non grata in his own party, he'll be out of luck.

A very pleasant fellow

Jeff Johnson, currently a Hennepin County commissioner, comes across on the stump as a very nice man. He's smart and, objectively speaking, the most conventionally handsome of the major candidates. He's been in the state house, ran unsuccessfully for statewide office in a very tough year (2006) and has been waging a lonely battle at HennCo ever since. There's a lot to like about Johnson and his ingratiating personality comes through quite clearly on the stump. What I worry about with Johnson is that he's too nice a guy. It's one thing to call out Governor Dayton's incompetence, which Johnson does effectively. The problem in this campaign isn't the incompetence of the governor; the problem in winning is that the governor is surrounded by a Praetorian Guard of highly competent attack dogs, button men (and women) and an ex-wife who has a bottomless wallet and the will to use it. Johnson's argument for electability comes from his success in the western suburbs of Minneapolis, which will be a key battleground in the election. To his credit, Johnson will abide by the endorsement. I would like to see him get a little tougher on Dayton in the future; it won't do for him to say that Dayton is a nice man, because he isn't. If there's a lesson in the Emmer campaign that must be learned in this cycle, it's that Mark Dayton must be the issue. Yes, he's inept. Yes, he has bad policies. But the only way the GOP will topple Mark Dayton is to make his crappy personality and false piety a campaign issue. Can Jeff Johnson do that?

The communicator

Dave Thompson was not able to get to the convention, but he sent his running mate, State Sen. Michelle Benson to speak to us. A successful attorney by trade, Thompson was elected to the state senate in 2010. Before Thompson came to the state senate, he had been a talk show host on KSTP for a number of years, and his communication skills are, to my mind, the best in the field. He speaks in complete sentences and has a knack for explaining conservative ideas in a consistent way that makes it difficult for his opponents to misrepresent. I am reasonably certain that the droogs at Alliance for a Better Minnesota have been combing the archives looking for an incendiary statement that Thompson made on KSTP, but my guess is that they won't find much. In his time at the capitol, Thompson has quickly become on of the leaders in the senate and he's been the go-to guy whenever the caucus has needed a spokesperson. He represents the south suburbs, specifically Lakeville, which is also a crucial area for the GOP. He's also the favorite of many of the activists in the party and I suspect he'll have an excellent chance of winning the endorsement. The smartest thing Thompson has done was to bring Benson onto his team. Benson represents an exurban district that includes parts of Anoka, Isanti and Sherburne counties, which is also prime GOP territory. Benson is a formidable talent. The issue Thompson faces is money -- while he's well-regarded, he doesn't have the well-established donor base that Seifert and Johnson both have. Enthusiasm counts for a lot, but it's going to take a lot of money to counteract Alida Messinger, and the state GOP is still hurting for funds right now. And if he has to deal with Seifert in a primary, which seems likely, will he have sufficient resources left to deal with the Dayton attack machine?

Kurt Zellers didn't make it to the convention, unless he showed up while we were electing delegates. My guess is that the didn't bother, though, because he's not really seeking the endorsement and has already stated that he's going to primary the endorsed candidate. Zellers was Speaker of the House in Minnesota but lost that in 2012 cycle. He's a good guy, but his dithering on issues, especially the Vikings stadium, is probably too much to overcome in this cycle. Scott Honour is a deep pocketed candidate who will be vulnerable to getting the Mitt Romney treatment. He's made some noise on the trail, but I don't think it will matter that much.

Do I have a preference among the major candidates? On balance, I prefer Thompson, but I continue to wish that either he, Johnson, or Seifert would have run against Al Franken instead. Instead, we have a different slate of candidates running in that race. That's the next post.