The View of Rochester from a Dining Room Table in New Brighton

As I mentioned, I didn't go see the fun at the state Republican convention, because we've got other things to do here as the Benster's graduation approaches. However, I do have a working internet connection and follow a few people on the ol' Twitter who know stuff, so it was easy enough to get a flavor of things. So what do we have after all the sturm und drang in Rochester? A few thoughts:

• While I'm a little surprised that Mike McFadden actually won the endorsement for Senate, it's easy to see why it eventually happened over 10 ballots. Al Franken has already begun carpet bombing Minnesota with advertising and it's highly unlikely that anyone other than the Republican candidate will be willing to talk about his record, so having a candidate who (a) has money in the bank and (b) can get on the airwaves makes sense. To me, the best thing about McFadden is that he's been involved for a long time with Cristo Rey, a remarkable success story in the Twin Cities that doesn't get a lot of attention because it's a rebuke to so many things that the bien pensants in our midst hold dear. It's evident what the attack line will be against McFadden -- he's our Mitt Romney or somesuch. That's a devastating argument in the addled blue precincts of the state, but it's not necessarily gonna fly elsewhere. And picking on investment bankers would work better if his opponent's prior occupation were more lofty. On balance, would you rather trust an investment banker or a comedian, especially one who isn't particularly funny?
• The other reason McFadden was going to win had it gone to a primary is because the other senate candidates weren't particularly strong. Julianne Ortman might have been able to swing an endorsement from Sarah Palin, but she hasn't been an especially compelling figure in St. Paul. Jim "En" Abeler, best known for sandbagging Tim Pawlenty back in the day, wasn't going to pass muster, either. While Chris Dahlberg had a plausible theory to his candidacy -- a conservative from the Range who's actually an elected official! -- he had no money and no prospects of getting sufficient funds to battle the avalanche of gauzy imagery that Franken is gonna put down in the next 5+ months. The job is to beat Franken and while McFadden has some work to do, he'll have enough resources to put out his own narrative. That counts for a lot. While Franken has to be considered the favorite, he's not a beloved figure in the state by any means, so McFadden will have a chance.
• Meanwhile, the gubernatorial endorsement process turned out to be a hot mess. I preferred Dave Thompson over Jeff Johnson, but my preference wasn't particularly strong. Jeff has done good work on the Hennepin County Board and he's whip smart and personable. The problem he has now is that he has a gantlet to run in the form of three candidates. I personally haven't taken Kurt Zellers seriously, because while he had a very high profile a few years back, he didn't do enough to establish himself as a viable leader. The other candidates, Marty Seifert and Scott Honour, are more formidable challengers, but for different reasons. Seifert pursued the endorsement, but when it became clear that he wasn't going to get it, essentially took his ball and went home, greatly angering many of the delegates in the process. Seifert is frustrating that way -- he probably has more native intelligence than other politician I've ever met, yet he's got a passive-aggressive petulance about him that drives people crazy. He can run in the primary, but if he were somehow to prevail, he'd have a hell of a time mending the fences with the party regulars. It's not a formula for success. As for Honour, he's got two things going for him -- he's rich, and he's rich. Like McFadden, he's made a huge pile in the financial industry. Honour made a smart pick for his running mate in Karin Housley, a rising star in the GOP who also happens to be the wife of the great hockey star Phil Housley. I suspect he'll be a formidable challenger for Johnson.
• My guess? I think Johnson will prevail, barely, because the party regulars are more likely to vote in the primary. I would not be surprised at all if Honour wins, though. I continue to believe that what Marty Seifert ought to do is run against Collin Peterson for the House, because I think he could win that race and begin his political rehabilitation there. He's still a very young man -- although it seems like he's been in politics forever, he's only 42. He has time to mend fences, but he needs to get on that task now. Seifert has no future in Minnesota politics if he continues on the current path. In some important ways, he's becoming a Nixonian figure -- not because he's corrupt, but because he's let his ego and petulance get the better of him. And as we all know, Nixon didn't do so well in Minnesota.