Alles klar, Der Klobuchar

Hear the children
Don't turn around, uh-oh
Der Klobuchar's in town, uh-oh
She's got the power
And you're so weak
And your frustration
Will not let you speak
La, la, la, la, la, la

The invaluable First Ringer made an astute observation yesterday in the comments section of this feature:

The problem with the long-game is when you actually look down the road. Minnesota will be ignored at a presidential level in 2016, at least by the GOP, and with the state senate and house up for re-election, the DFL could very easily undo what Republican gains occur this year. Then we head to 2018 and that election will be highly determined by Amy Klobuchar's decision. Whether she seeks a re-election or perhaps the governorship will determine where GOP dollars go. They won't oppose her. A gubernatorial campaign by Klobuchar could have a disastrous effect on Republican legislative efforts.

Unless the GOP has some toe-hold on power - the governor, legislature, or even a constitutional officer - I fear to wonder what will happen to the party if another cycle or two goes by without a GOP victory. We could find ourselves looking like the New York or California GOP.

While I'd prefer to avoid this result, let's say for the sake of argument that Mark Dayton does prevail next month and gets another term as governor. Have you seen Mark Dayton recently? He does not look healthy at all. While he might be elected to serve another four years, I sincerely doubt that his health will allow him to make it. Most people that I know won't say it publicly, but as an obscure blogger I can get by with stating what is obvious -- if Mark Dayton is re-elected, there's an excellent chance that Tina Smith, his running mate, will become governor, perhaps as soon as 2016. Dayton's only job is to hold the seat for the DFL.

Fast forward to 2018. At that point, Amy Klobuchar will have a decision to make -- does she stay in the Senate and become a midwestern version of Barbara Mikulski, or does she want to grab a larger ring? There aren't many senators around who don't fancy themselves as potential presidents and there have been a number of signs that Klobuchar is one of them -- the amount of time she spends in Iowa is a tell. She's probably not going to be ready to run in 2016, since Hillary Clinton and Elizabeth Warren are queued up in front of her. But if she wanted to differentiate herself for 2020, being a sitting governor would do the trick.

For that reason, I think it would make a lot of sense for Klobuchar to run for governor in 2018, if she had a clear path to the office. If Dayton could win and hang on for four years, that would be plausible. But what happens if the incumbent is Tina Smith? Would Smith step aside for Klobuchar? That seems less likely. And if that happens, Klobuchar would likely run for another term in Washington, which would mean a ticket to Mikulskiland for Klobuchar and, most likely, the end to her ambitions for 2020. That Senate perch would potentially give her an opening for 2024, but that would probably be too late, as she would be 64 years old and she'd likely have to contend with someone like Cory Booker or Julian Castro.

The alternative scenario is that, somehow, Mark Dayton blows a gasket in the next month and Jeff Johnson wins. Then it becomes a different game.

For Republicans, the larger concern is what FR says -- unless something pretty drastic changes, the MN GOP is headed for a long period in the wilderness. But that's another post.