You'd barely know there's a gubernatorial election this year. And at this point it isn't much of a race, as most polling shows Mark Dayton up around 10 points over Jeff Johnson.
Johnson's problem is that his campaign has no money for advertising, which is the only way he can get his message out. We're about a month away and so far he's been able to get one ad on the air, which wasn't enough to move the needle. Meanwhile, Dayton and his droogs from Alliance for a Better Minnesota can attack at will, since he also knows the local media outlets won't bother to point out myriad flaws in Dayton's performance.
Jeff Johnson is a good and decent man who would make an excellent governor, but he lives in the wrong state. The only chance he has is if Dayton makes a complete hash of himself in some debate and makes it clear how feeble he's become. However, since most of the debates are taking place on Radio Bulgaria and similar outlets, the chances of that are small. And Dayton's handlers are smart enough to limit the amount of speaking he does -- his newest ad features Dayton's narration, including the bald faced lie that he cut taxes, but if you ask him to do anything other than read a script, he can't explain much. He won't have to, though.
6 comments:
I felt that Johnson's only chance was for a deus ex machine. The MNSure rate increase could have been that, but the media ran with the 4.5% figure, seemingly diffusing the story.
I don't fully understand the lack of interest in Johnson - he's certainly no extreme-sounding, gaffe-prone politico like Tom Emmer was four years ago, and yet the base (and financiers) nearly dragged Emmer over the finish line. I don't sense any similar effort going on this cycle.
In general, GOP voters don't seem interested in trying to get the DFL out of power. I remember having a conversation with one of the individuals running a pro-GOP IE group back in the early spring, and he talked about the potential of a wave-election placing 20-25 Minnesota house seats up for grabs. Now, from what I hear, the GOP only thinks they'll pick up 4-5 seats (not the 7 they'd need to flip control). That's a pretty stark reversal of fortune in a short period of time....and without any major event or gaffe(s) to fully explain it.
I agree with 100% of what you've written, FR. All I can think is that the money men are playing the long game and have given up on this cycle because they don't think they can pull Johnson across the line. The problem is that the DFL can — and will — do a lot of damage in the next 2-4 years. I'm not sure Dayton himself is much of a factor, though — he's a figurehead at this point.
Minnesota is home for me more than any other place and in many ways I love it. But the level of political foolishness is unreal. It's embarrassing. Or at least it would be if I lived there.
D, you're right that the financiers have decided they'd rather spend their limited resources on the legislature than Johnson's campaign - i.e. the "long-game."
The problem with the long-game is when you actually look down the road. Minnesota will be ignored at a presidential level in 2016, at least by the GOP, and with the state senate and house up for re-election, the DFL could very easily undo what Republican gains occur this year. Then we head to 2018 and that election will be highly determined by Amy Klobuchar's decision. Whether she seeks a re-election or perhaps the governorship will determine where GOP dollars go. They won't oppose her. A gubernatorial campaign by Klobuchar could have a disastrous effect on Republican legislative efforts.
Unless the GOP has some toe-hold on power - the governor, legislature, or even a constitutional officer - I fear to wonder what will happen to the party if another cycle or two goes by without a GOP victory. We could find ourselves looking like the New York or California GOP.
its looking to me that MN GOPers (and those like minded) would be a lot happier if they forget about politics and learn to cope and adjust in a land that is not like them... ruled by a people that do not like them.
thats what we do here in CA, where we are all just serfs to govt.
FR, your most recent comment is worth a blog post of its own.
Gino, that's a pretty depressing scenario. We worry in Minnesota about being a "cold Omaha." What you're describing is closer to a "cold Albania."
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