I have to assume. . .

. . . that the Lord needs reinforcements in Heaven. I have to note the passing of two more people who have been part of my life.

I'd heard last week that my high school classmate, Steve Dorn, passed away over the previous weekend. Steve had an interesting journey in his life. I met him in high school and while we weren't close friends, we were friendly during our time at XHS. During his high school years he had to endure some behavior that bordered on the cruel. Steve was overweight, had a high-pitched voice and liked disco music. That wasn't exactly the winning social template in the late 1970s in Appleton, Wisconsin and he got a lot of crap from certain precincts. After he graduated, he went into the Navy and served with distinction there. Eventually he opened and operated one of the best restaurants in Appleton, called The Willow, and he was pretty successful at it. But along the way, Steve developed substance abuse problems that had him in and out of recovery various times. The toll it took on his health was noticeable the last time I saw him, which was about 9 years ago, but I was quite surprised to hear that he had passed away. Steve was the kind of guy who wanted to make people happy and while his high school years might have been tough, he'd earned a lot of respect among his classmates for the successes he had with The Willow. He was only 46 years old.

This afternoon I learned that Fr. Michael O'Rourke, the longtime pastor at my old parish, St. Mary's, died from complications of a head injury after he fell in his driveway last weekend. Fr. Mike had been pastor at St. Mary's since 1986, but since I had moved away from Appleton some time before I'd only dealt with Fr. Mike a few times. One of these times was crucial, though – he presided over my mother's funeral in 2000. He spent a lot of time with my family in the week between my mother's death and her funeral and his evident concern for our family made a huge difference in getting all of us through that terrible time. Clergymen have to preside over funerals and help loved ones as a matter of course; since they have to undertake this sort of thing all the time, it must be tempting for a minister to phone it in. Fr. Mike could have done that, but he didn't. Although I don't know for sure, it's highly likely that Fr. Mike presided over the funeral of Dave Balliet, my 7th grade teacher that I discussed earlier this month; Dave's funeral happened two days before Fr. Mike's accident. And now Fr. Mike is gone, too.

As much as we try, we are utterly incapable of understanding God's will. What I do know is that Steve Dorn and Fr. Mike, like Dave Balliet and John Kunstman before them, were faithful servants. They were men who understood that doing only what is necessary won't make the world a better place and each in his own way made a lasting contribution. While I am saddened that all four of these men have left this world so soon, I rejoice in the knowledge that they are now in a better place.

Guess they've never heard of Skype

Claudia Rosett notices that the UN eco-luminaries are meeting again. And check out where:

Now they’re at it again. The UN Environment Program, which is based in Nairobi, is convening a set of meetings this week – not in Nairobi, or New York, but at the same Bali beach resort (and convention center) where they sacrificed all that time for the greater good in 2007. Never mind the UN’s continuing campaign — in the face of its crumbling “climate science” — to restrict and control carbon emissions. Yet again, we are asked to believe the UN deserves special exemptions from its own preachings. Its conferees are jetting to Bali for the greater good of all the little folk, whose job is merely to pay the bills for such pleasures, and live with any resulting rationing and regulation. According to the Jakarta Post, some 1,500 people from 192 countries are expected to attend this shindig — where UNEP claims that envoys of some 140 governments will be present. The pre-session events (the UN goes in for a lot of those on Bali) have already begun.

Unless all the attendees arrived via the Kon-Tiki or something, this conference represents a lot of airline miles and features a Bunyanesque carbon footprint, doncha think? I guess I'd be more inclined to believe that there's an impending crisis if the crisis-mongers actually behaved as if there were a crisis.

Keeping Kate Up to Speed

We now present word from the Guardian, a British newspaper with impeccable leftist credentials:

Scientists have been forced to withdraw a study on projected sea level rise due to global warming after finding mistakes that undermined the findings.

Nature Publishing Group, which publishes Nature Geoscience, said this was the first paper retracted from the journal since it was launched in 2007.

The paper – entitled "Constraints on future sea-level rise from past sea-level change" – used fossil coral data and temperature records derived from ice-core measurements to reconstruct how sea level has fluctuated with temperature since the peak of the last ice age, and to project how it would rise with warming over the next few decades.

In a statement the authors of the paper said: "Since publication of our paper we have become aware of two mistakes which impact the detailed estimation of future sea level rise. This means that we can no longer draw firm conclusions regarding 21st century sea level rise from this study without further work.

"One mistake was a miscalculation; the other was not to allow fully for temperature change over the past 2,000 years. Because of these issues we have retracted the paper and will now invest in the further work needed to correct these mistakes."

This is good and what should happen in science. The prediction in question suggests that oceans could rise by anywhere from 7-82cm (3in. to nearly 3ft.) by the end of the century. That's not exactly precise, mind you, but a 3ft. rise in sea levels would be an issue. More later.

Big Mac and Roids - IV

Time to get back to this one. Parts I, II and III of this series are linked here.

Bill James is my favorite baseball writer, primarily because when he writes about baseball, he'll often make a useful if tangential point that has nothing to do with the game per se. In The New Bill James Historical Baseball Abstract, he wrote the following:

What Watergate was about was not the corruption of government, as most people thought, but rather, the establishment of new and higher standards of ethical conduct. Almost all scandals, I think, result from the invention of new evils, but from the imposition of new ethical standards.

I think there's a lot of truth to that observation and I find it helpful to understanding what is going on as we attempt to make sense of the steroid era. James completed this book during the 2000 season, which was in the midst of this era. You can go through all 998 pages of information and you won't find much of any mention of steroids as an issue. Since much of what Bill James has tried to do in his career is to put players and eras into an historical context, he spends a fair amount of time talking about why offenses, particularly home runs, were such a big deal in the 1990s. James mentions that players have become more diligent about training year-round (which steroid use aided) and also pointed to the spate of bandbox ballparks built in the 1990s as the primary reason for the upsurge in home runs. Until Jose Canseco's Juiced came out in 2005, you didn't necessarily hear a lot about steroid use, although there were widespread suspicions about players using steroids.

As the scope of the overall scandal has become more clear, the outrage over steroid use has increased as well. Mark McGwire, who stands among the all-time leaders in home runs, has admitted he used steroids and there's an excellent chance that this admission will keep him from the Hall of Fame. It's quite possible that Barry Bonds will be denied admission to Cooperstown as well. They cheated and we can't condone cheating, or so we are told.

Fortunately, those already enshrined aren't of the same ilk as McGwire, or Bonds, or Rafael Palmeiro, right? Let's again turn to James as he discusses Babe Ruth:

In 1983 a traveling Hillerich and Bradsby exhibit featured a Babe Ruth bat. According to Dan Gutman in It Ain't Cheatin' If You Don't Get Caught, the Seattle players were admiring the bat "when outfielder Dave Henderson noticed that the round end of the bat didn't exactly match the wood of the barrel. The end was cracked, but the rest of the bat was not.

"'That's a plug!' said Henderson. 'This bat is corked.'"

As I pointed out in the Ken Williams comment, Ruth was caught using a trick bat in a game in August, 1923. As I see it, nothing could be more typical of Ruth than to use a corked bat if he could get by with it. Ruth tested the limits of the rules constantly; this was what made him who he was. He refused to be ordinary; he refused to accept that the rules applied to him, until it was clear that they did. Constantly testing the limits of the rules, as I see him, was Babe Ruth's defining characteristic.

Dave Henderson discovered Babe Ruth's crime some 35 years after Ruth died. In the case of McGwire, his crime was discovered much sooner. Now here's a question that we should ask -- if Babe Ruth had been born in 1964 instead of 1894, he would have been a contemporary of McGwire (born 1963), Bonds (born 1964) and Palmeiro (born 1964). Do you suppose that Ruth would have eschewed steroids if he knew that the others were using them?

We can't know the answer to that question. But we can say this much: the baseball writers who control access to the Hall of Fame today are using a much higher ethical standard than has been used before. Should they? I'll talk about that next.

Pitchers and catchers report

And my beloved Brewers are already hard at work. Baseball is finally here! Watch for a number of baseball posts here in the next few days.

Yoo Can't Always Get What Yoo Want

Reality wins again.

Bush administration lawyers who wrote "torture" memos have been cleared of allegations of professional misconduct after a Justice Department internal investigation, which recommends no legal consequences for their actions.

The report by the Justice Department concludes the high-ranking lawyers who developed controversial legal guidance on waterboarding and other enhanced interrogation techniques may have exercised poor judgment, but not professional misconduct.

When CNN puts "torture" in quotation marks, that means something. The practical import of the matter is that John Yoo and Jay Bybee are pretty much in the clear now.

It's pretty easy to understand why career Justice officials quietly killed the efforts to go after Yoo and Bybee. If these Bush-era lawyers were prosecuted for providing legal advice by the Obama administration, the Obama-era lawyers would face the potential of similar action when the next administration comes to town. And if that happened, you'd have lawyers ducking tough calls every time. I don't see how that would benefit anyone. And if you can't imagine that the Obama-era Justice Department might not have some issue that a future administration might believe merits scrutiny, think again.

We struggle with this sort of thing all the time, because bright lines aren't always as bright as we imagine. I am aware that many people feel that the Bush administration engaged in torture, a problem that the Obama administration seems to be avoiding through outsourcing. We try, we always try, to be on the side of the angels, but we are sinners and we fall short. And when sinners try to be avenging angels, it usually doesn't work out so well.

Sorting It Out at 50B

I went to the 50B "Carbo Load" event at Lakeside Homes in New Brighton last night and spoke at some length to 3 potential House candidates to run against incumbent Kate Knuth. It's not going to be an easy decision at the BPOU convention next week. It's urgent we get the decision right, though, and I don't want to prejudge the matter. I liked all three candidates, but for different reasons.

If you are a 50B delegate and will be attending the BPOU convention, which will take place on Saturday, February 27 at Christ the King Church in New Brighton, chances are good that you'll be hearing from each candidate individually, if you haven't already. When you do, be ready to ask questions. And make your questions tough ones. Part of the process is getting the candidate that emerges ready for the general election, which won't be gentle. Carbon Kate Knuth is highly vulnerable and she knows it.

The candidates come to the Neighborhood - Part 4 - Vision or Clarity

Note: Parts 1, 2 and 3 of this series are linked.

Minnesota Republicans have a dilemma. There are two potential candidates for governor who both have undeniable talent, but also have widely varying skill sets. And the Republicans only get to choose one. How do you decide? Here's how I decided.

First a little history. When I came to Minnesota in the early 1990s, the governor was Arne Carlson, who was politically moderate, irascible but ultimately malleable. He was badged as a Republican, but was a classic example of that species now known as a RINO (Republican in Name Only). Carlson would occasionally apply a mild brake to the whims of the legislature, but he was usually willing to cut a deal. To the GOP faithful, Carlson was the equivalent of a mild toothache -- they could live with Carlson if they had to, but they preferred not to. In 1994, incumbent Carlson lost the GOP primary to Allen Quist, whose primary concerns were social issues. Carlson ignored the results of his caucus, defeated Quist in the primary and routed the hapless DFL scold John Marty to gain a second term. Marty is back for another go-around in this cycle, but we'll leave that aside.

Why does this history matter? For better or worse, Carlson was seen by many as a model of what a Minnesota Republican looks like - socially moderate, theoretically conservative on the fiscal side. To the bien pensants who held the reins of news communication in a pre-blog era, Carlson also represented the outer limit of what polite society would tolerate from the Republican Party. And although we are now 12 years past the Carlson era, his template still holds purchase in some important ways.

Tim Pawlenty, the outgoing governor, is far more conservative than Carlson, but on the political spectrum he is also more moderate than either of the two possible candidates in this cycle, Tom Emmer and Marty Seifert. Because Pawlenty was more willing to stand up to the DFL than Carlson ever was, he has moved the political spectrum in Minnesota to the right, perhaps significantly more than anyone thought possible in the 1990s. At the same time, Pawlenty has served the last four years dealing with a legislature that is far more ferociously leftist than the ones Carlson faced. And this ferociously leftist DFL caucus will select an opponent for either Emmer or Seifert.

So which Republican candidate fits the current moment?

If you believe that Republican progress is possible, but only incrementally, then Marty Seifert is the guy you should choose. Marty Seifert understands precisely where we are and is brimming with proposals to deal with the issues at hand. He brings great clarity and can tell you in great detail what ought to be done. He is a technician and tactician of the first order. He has followed the typical Republican leadership path -- pay your dues, work hard and rise through the ranks until your skill set matches the available leadership position. This is the model that brought us Pawlenty at the state level and George H. W. Bush, George W. Bush, Bob Dole and John McCain at the national level.

If you believe that the moment is right for a more fundamental change, then Tom Emmer is the guy. Emmer is at a point in his career where he has seen how things work, but he hasn't really become part of the beast. He's a guy who inspires, primarily because he spends less time analyzing what is happening now and more time talking about what could happen. And while Seifert offers a snapshot and a plausible roadmap, Emmer is offering a vision.

Vision is a tough nut for Republicans and it's been exceedingly rare to find a Republican who has it. The obvious (and grossly unfair) example is Ronald Reagan. When Reagan won election in 1980, almost no one except Ronald Reagan could have envisioned that the mighty Soviet Union would implode in a decade.

I don't see evidence that Tom Emmer has a vision on that grand a scale, but I do think he has a vision of how to get to a smaller, more human-scale government in Minnesota. And I also think he has the skill set to communicate the idea to a larger audience than the GOP caucus. I also think that the moment is right to take an alternative, conservative vision to the electorate.

In the end, it comes down to this. Clarity is crucial, but a visionary leader can find lieutenants who can provide it. Ronald Reagan found George H. W. Bush. It's far more difficult for a clear-thinking tactical leader to find a vision. George H. W. Bush famously mused about the elusiveness of the "vision thing" throughout his career. Republicans will need both clarity and vision to win this election and to govern effectively thereafter. Tom Emmer has a better chance of providing both traits. And that is why I support Tom Emmer for governor.

Radio Free Dilettante — Ash Wednesday Edition

We don’t give up music for Lent; that much is certain.

Last Five:
Battle of Who Could Care Less, Ben Folds Five
Sunrise, The Who
Under the Falling Sky, Bonnie Raitt
This Time The Dream’s on Me, Ella Fitzgerald
Cakewalk Into Town, Taj Mahal


Next Five:
P.S. I Love You, The Beatles
Well. . . All Right, Buddy Holly
Tears of Love’s Recall, k.d. lang
One Mint Julep, Ray Charles
1979, Smashing Pumpkins

Read the whole thing

Click the link. Don't hesitate. A taste:

Environmental extremism is a breathless handmaiden for collectivism. It pours a layer of smooth, creamy science over a relentless hunger for power. Since the boogeymen of the Green movement threaten the very Earth itself with imminent destruction, the environmentalist feels morally justified in suspending democracy and seizing the liberty of others. Of course we can’t put these matters to a vote! The dimwitted hicks in flyover country can’t understand advanced biochemistry or climate science. They might vote the wrong way, and we can’t risk the consequences! The phantom menaces of the Green movement can only be battled by a mighty central State. Talk of representation, property rights, and even free speech is madness when such a threat towers above the fragile ecosphere, wheezing pollutants and coughing out a stream of dead birds and drowned polar bears. You can see why the advocates of Big Government would eagerly race across a field of sustainable, organic grass to sweep environmentalists into their arms, and spin them around in the ozone-screened sunlight.

There's so much more at the link. I especially commend this essay to the attention of Kate Knuth.

The candidates come to the Neighborhood - Part 3 - The Smartest Man in the Room

There is widespread discontent with the direction of government right now. The sense many people have is that the political system is dysfunctional and the political class has not been paying attention. That makes this moment a dangerous time to be a career politician. There is no doubt that Marty Seifert is a career politician. He is only 37 years old, but has been a member of the state legislature since 1996. Is that a bad thing? Not necessarily.

While vision and inspiring rhetoric are essential tools of the political trade, there is no question that understanding the inner workings of government is a serious advantage. And if you listen to Marty Seifert for even a minute, it becomes evident that he understands many, many things. His intelligence is obvious and almost daunting, but he's not the sort to throw around a ten-dollar word when a two-bit one will do. His words are measured, well-chosen and sensible and his mind is razor sharp. He has met many people within the Republican Party apparat during his tenure and he remembers them all. He's the kind of person who has an internal outline that he follows and he is able to turn his knowledge into an understandable example, seemingly at will.

More importantly, Marty Seifert can give you all the examples you need. He provided the audience at Lakeside Homes specific examples of governmental decisions that have adversely affected people, and he told us in detail what the impacts were. If you want to know why Marvin Windows chose to open a facility in North Dakota, Marty Seifert knows the story. If you want to know why a vodka distillery would open in Iowa rather than in Windom, Marty can identify the ridiculous tax that drove the business elsewhere. If you want to know why high-tech laboratory jobs slated for Rochester are being performed in Tennessee, Seifert can pinpoint the "provider tax" that drove the work away. Marty Seifert also knows why these things are happening, because he has been in the arena and has been a participant in, and often an opponent of, the legislation that caused these dislocations to take place.

Because of Seifert's intelligence and organization, he was able to rise in the legislature to the position of Minority Leader and he was often a highly effective one. Because of his lengthy tenure in the legislature, he's cast some votes that cause conservatives heartburn, especially votes involving energy policy. Seifert's opponents have hung these votes around his neck and it has hurt him, especially in tandem with the widespread perception that as a career politician, Seifert has been part of the problem that Minnesota faces.

And yet it's not quite that simple. It is easier to maintain ideological purity when you are simply a member of the legislature and not part of the leadership. In some cases, Seifert was carrying water for a governor of his own party, a governor who has been an uncertain trumpet on a number of issues near and dear to conservatives. And there is no disputing that having encyclopedic knowledge of both the issues and the personalities in St. Paul is potentially a huge advantage for an executive. If Marty Seifert were elected governor, he would have no illusions about the challenges he would face and would have a keen understanding of his opponents.

One thing that doesn't help Seifert is that he doesn't have the charisma that his opponent, Tom Emmer has. Seifert comes across as smart, serious and focused, but he doesn't inspire the kind of fervor that a natural politician like Tom Emmer can. Marty Seifert has made the heavy lifting of politics his life's work and he has served the state very well. But will his resume be enough, in a time where vision seems to be required? That's the question we'll ask next.

Marty Seifert's website is SeifertForGovernor.com.

Next: Vision or Clarity

The candidates come to the Neighborhood - Part 2 - The Visionary

Tom Emmer doesn't walk into a room so much as he overtakes it. He has an undeniable presence and the bearing of a successful coach, a man who understands the big picture and has a definite vision of what he wants to accomplish. He's the kind of man who takes bold steps and leaves footprints.

One thing about people who leave footprints -- they understand what footprints can do. So when Emmer spoke to the audience at Lakeside Homes in New Brighton on Sunday, it was especially interesting that the first thing he mentioned were the footsteps that state employees are allowed to take. Specifically, he talked about the implications of the state's weed inspection program, which allows a state employee to enter just about anyone's property to inspect and potentially mitigate a weed issue on that property. And since the enabling legislation was poorly drawn, that employee could be anyone from an actual inspector to the governor. This is just one program but is emblematic of a larger problem, Emmer believes -- Big Government is everywhere.

It's a telling anecdote and it speaks to a life experience at the business end of an intrusive government. Emmer is a small businessman first and a legislator second. Like many people similarly situated, he found that the depredations of government required a response larger than filling out forms, so he followed the model of Cincinnatus and put down his plow, running for office to represent the Delano area. He has served in the legislature since he was elected in 2004. His district includes Waverly, the home of the greatest of all DFLers, Hubert Humphrey.

Although Emmer and Humphrey have almost nothing in common politically, they share a common character trait -- both are happy warriors. You get the sense that, even if Emmer hadn't planned on a political career, he has taken to it and really enjoys the experience of being on the hustings. He speaks with great passion and conviction about the nature of leadership, about the importance of differentiating negotiation and compromise, about the importance of staying true to the principles of limited government. He speaks with obvious concern about the future that his seven children face, especially given the burdens that government has already put in place. It's a compelling vision and it's red, red meat for a conservative audience.

Emmer's vision has also gained a number of adherents. The perception has been that his opponent, Marty Seifert, has the support of the GOP establishment. Despite that, Emmer has managed to gain the endorsement of some key players within the party structure, including Lt. Governor Carol Molnau, Rep. Laura Brod and former United States Senator Rod Grams. It's a formidable lineup of support for a guy who has only been on the scene for 5 years. It's also a sign that, at least among GOP activists, Emmer is a formidable candidate and communicator.

Political figures come in many variations and Emmer's opponent is a very different type of politician. The question for Republican delegates is this -- because Tom Emmer is a dynamic communicator of conservative values, he is an exceedingly attractive candidate within the GOP caucus. But will that visionary style, painted in bold strokes, translate to the larger electorate? We'll get to that in the coming days.

Tom Emmer's website is Emmer for Governor.com.

Next: The Smartest Man in the Room

The candidates come to the Neighborhood - Part 1

It's not how I'd planned to spend Valentine's Day, but when the two main Republican gubernatorial candidates make presentations within 3 blocks from your house, you really have to go. And that's what happened today. Tom Emmer and Marty Seifert appeared before a group of Republicans, primarily from House District 50B, this afternoon at Lakeside Homes in New Brighton. The contrast in styles is unmistakable and the decision before state Republicans is a difficult one.

The stakes could not be higher. The DFL commands large majorities in both houses of the legislature and there are a number of high-profile DFLers who are attempting to take the governor's chair, which has been out of DFL hands for 20 years now. While 2010 has the potential to be an excellent year for Republicans, there are no guarantees and the voice and vision at the top of the ticket could well be decisive, not only for the governor's race itself but also for races down the ticket as well.

At the outset, it's important to say this: both Tom Emmer and Marty Seifert are streets ahead of any potential DFL candidate. Whether you are looking at Mark Dayton, Margaret Anderson Kelliher, Matt Entenza, John Marty, Tom Rukavina or any of the the others, you will get a committed liberal who will, if given a DFL legislature in partnership, move this state decisively to the left. You will get a completely untrammeled public sector and you will see punitive taxes imposed on businesses and individuals. In other words, you will see California-style governance. As those who have paid attention to the horrible situation in the Golden State well understand, that would be disastrous for this state.

Emmer and Seifert know this and both mentioned it at the outset of their respective presentations. Both candidates have young children and both candidates said that they worry about the bills that the spendthrifts in the DFL are running up right now. Both argue that we're at a point where fundamental changes must take place. Each candidate argues that he is the one who can effect the changes that are needed. How each proposes to enact these changes is where things get interesting. And we'll be talking about that in the coming days. I'll devote a post to each candidate and then offer my thoughts in a separate post. It's not the sort of thing you can cover in a single blog post.

Next: The Visionary

Things fall part, the centre cannot hold

Readers of this feature know that I love William Butler Yeats, the great Irish poet. One of his most famous poems is The Second Coming, in which he declaims as follows:

Turning and turning in the widening gyre
The falcon cannot hear the falconer;
Things fall apart; the centre cannot hold;
Mere anarchy is loosed upon the world,
The blood-dimmed tide is loosed, and everywhere
The ceremony of innocence is drowned;
The best lack all conviction, while the worst
Are full of passionate intensity.

When you listen to the acolytes of AGW, it seems as if they are providing this sort of dystopian vision:

Surely some revelation is at hand;
Surely the Second Coming is at hand.
The Second Coming! Hardly are those words out
When a vast image out of Spiritus Mundi
Troubles my sight: a waste of desert sand;
A shape with lion body and the head of a man,
A gaze blank and pitiless as the sun,
Is moving its slow thighs, while all about it
Wind shadows of the indignant desert birds.
The darkness drops again but now I know
That twenty centuries of stony sleep
Were vexed to nightmare by a rocking cradle,
And what rough beast, its hour come round at last,
Slouches towards Bethlehem to be born?

This is Yeats providing an early template for Pete Townshend's similar observation, which came some 40 years later: Meet the new boss/Same as the old boss.

Sometimes that is what the AGW debate seems like to me. We have been told for years now that the science is settled and we are on the brink of doom. The rough beast is coming 'round, mainly because the worst, and I assume I am part of the worst, are full of passionate intensity. It's easy to believe such things if you listen to the likes of our local state representative, the orange-clad green acolyte Kate Knuth, or Al Gore, or IPCC honcho Rajendra Pachauri, who all fear that the falcon is not listening to the falconer. They are trying to save us from our base impulses by jetting round the world to declaim against our base ways. And for the most part, Kate, Al and their pals aren't challenged on any of these assumptions, at least in America. It's just these crackpot bloggers who nip at their heels with their passionate intensity.

There are things that are relevant to the discussion that we just don't hear very much. You really need to get your news from places where there's still some intellectual curiosity. Take this example from The Daily Mail in London, which lets us know that The Second Coming may not be at hand after all:

The academic at the centre of the ‘Climategate’ affair, whose raw data is crucial to the theory of climate change, has admitted that he has trouble ‘keeping track’ of the information.

Colleagues say that the reason Professor Phil Jones has refused Freedom of Information requests is that he may have actually lost the relevant papers.

The dog ate his homework, I guess. But we should trust Jones, as Kate Knuth does, because the science is settled. Well, maybe not:

Professor Jones also conceded the possibility that the world was warmer in medieval times than now – suggesting global warming may not be a man-made phenomenon. And he said that for the past 15 years there has been no ‘statistically significant’ warming.

Really? Huh -- good to know! Glad we had this little talk, Professor Jones. Meanwhile, the Daily Mail makes this wry observation:

The admissions will be seized on by sceptics as fresh evidence that there are serious flaws at the heart of the science of climate change and the orthodoxy that recent rises in temperature are largely man-made.

I suppose that might be possible. We are full of passionate intensity.

So besides selection bias and the dog eating the homework, what else might account for the warming reported that makes the science "settled?" Let's ask the Times of London:

The United Nations climate panel faces a new challenge with scientists casting doubt on its claim that global temperatures are rising inexorably because of human pollution.

In its last assessment the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) said the evidence that the world was warming was “unequivocal”.

It warned that greenhouse gases had already heated the world by 0.7C and that there could be 5C-6C more warming by 2100, with devastating impacts on humanity and wildlife. However, new research, including work by British scientists, is casting doubt on such claims. Some even suggest the world may not be warming much at all.

“The temperature records cannot be relied on as indicators of global change,” said John Christy, professor of atmospheric science at the University of Alabama in Huntsville, a former lead author on the IPCC.

And why would that be?

The doubts of Christy and a number of other researchers focus on the thousands of weather stations around the world, which have been used to collect temperature data over the past 150 years.

These stations, they believe, have been seriously compromised by factors such as urbanisation, changes in land use and, in many cases, being moved from site to site.

So the weather stations have moved? Or maybe a weather station that was in a field in 1950 now has a power plant 100 yards away? Didn't they tell us that?

Christy has published research papers looking at these effects in three different regions: east Africa, and the American states of California and Alabama.

“The story is the same for each one,” he said. “The popular data sets show a lot of warming but the apparent temperature rise was actually caused by local factors affecting the weather stations, such as land development.”

Those are human factors, of course, but unless we pave over entire continents, it's likely that the numbers aren't going to skew that much. There's always been an easy way to test changes in temperature yourself; you can always step out from underneath a tree into a sunny area. Oddly enough, it's warmer in the sunny area. Put a weather station in the middle of an asphalt parking lot and it might skew the numbers a bit.

Is the earth warming? Maybe. Is it warmer now than before? Maybe not. The point is, we don't know and the science is not "settled." In fact, the science is just beginning. Someone better tell Kate Knuth.

Professor Reynolds Explains

Glenn Reynolds, the University of Tennessee law professor who runs the highly successful and influential Instapundit, went to the Tea Party convention in Nashville. His excellent report in the Wall Street Journal is must reading and makes what's happening comprehensible, if you're willing to listen to what is being said. In fact, it's easy to understand:

There were promises of transparency and of a new kind of collaborative politics where establishment figures listened to ordinary Americans. We were going to see net spending cuts, tax cuts for nearly all Americans, an end to earmarks, legislation posted online for the public to review before it is signed into law, and a line-by-line review of the federal budget to remove wasteful programs.

These weren't the tea-party platforms I heard discussed in Nashville last weekend. They were the campaign promises of Barack Obama in 2008.

I don't know how many Tea Party folks voted for Barack Obama, but certainly some did. I do know that a lot of people took Barack Obama's promises seriously. And I'd bet there were some Obama voters in Nashville.

So when promises are broken, what do you do? Sulk? Or take matters into your own hands? Reynolds finds citizens who are doing the latter.

Mr. Obama made those promises because the ideas they represented were popular with average Americans. So popular, it turns out, that average Americans are organizing themselves in pursuit of the kind of good government Mr. Obama promised, but has not delivered. And that, in a nutshell, was the feel of the National Tea Party Convention. The political elites have failed, and citizens are stepping in to pick up the slack.

One thing that Reynolds noticed is that while there is anger involved, especially directly to the insiders who control both major parties in varying ways, this isn't an especially angry mob.

Pundits claim the tea partiers are angry—and they are—but the most striking thing about the atmosphere in Nashville was how cheerful everyone seemed to be. I spoke with dozens of people, and the responses were surprisingly similar. Hardly any had ever been involved in politics before. Having gotten started, they were finding it to be not just worthwhile, but actually fun. Laughter rang out frequently, and when new-media mogul Andrew Breitbart held forth on a TV interview, a crowd gathered and broke into spontaneous applause.

But is Breitbart a Tea Party leader? Not especially. Is Sarah Palin? Not necessarily. Reynolds:

Press attention focused on Sarah Palin's speech, which was well-received by the crowd. But the attendees I met weren't looking to her for direction. They were hoping she would move in theirs. Right now, the tea party isn't looking for leaders so much as leaders are looking to align themselves with the tea party.

And when the leaders aren't available, others from the ranks are stepping up.

It's easy to see why. A recent Investor's Business Daily/TIPP poll found that three-fourths of independent voters have a favorable opinion of the tea party. This enthusiasm, however, does not translate into an embrace of establishment Republicanism. One of the less-noted aspects of Mrs. Palin's speech was her endorsement of primary challenges for incumbent Republicans, something that is already underway. Tea partiers I talked to hope to replace a lot of entrenched time-servers and to throw a scare into others.

That's exactly right. I've long argued that the turn against the GOP in the 2006 and 2008 election cycles was fueled by the sense that Republicans, especially the Tom Delay/Dennis Hastert money-grubbing types, deserved to be fired. It never meant that the Nancy Pelosi/Steny Hoyer money-grubbing types were suddenly in favor. Democrats wanted to believe that and because they received a lot of votes in those two election cycles, it seemed plausible. But it was illusory.

I get the sense that a lot of Republicans, especially those in the establishment, are just waiting for the tide to come in. But they too will be challenged and deserve to be. Reynolds finds an example:

One primary challenger is Les Phillip. He is running against Republican Parker Griffith in Alabama's fifth congressional district. Mr. Phillip, a black businessman and Navy veteran who immigrated with his parents from Trinidad in his youth, got his start in politics speaking at a tea-party protest in Decatur, Ala., last year.

"Somebody had to speak," he told me, "so I stepped up." He did well enough that he was invited to speak at another protest in Trussville, Ala., after which things sort of snowballed. Of the tea partiers, he says, "Their values are pretty much mine. I live in a town in North Alabama where there are plenty of blacks driving Mercedes and living in big houses. Only in America can someone come from a little island and live the dream. I've liked it, and that's what I want for my children. [But] I saw the window closing for my own kids."

If you want to understand what's going on, you need to listen to Les Phillip. More importantly, you need to listen carefully. It's easy to dismiss what he represents as just another spasm of populism. It's not. This isn't a selfish movement fueled by resentment, although it could seem that way, especially given the dismissal of elites and elitism that is a common theme. Elitists certainly read things that way. The key statement Phillip makes is the last one:

Only in America can someone come from a little island and live the dream. I've liked it, and that's what I want for my children. [But] I saw the window closing for my own kids.

It's easy to dimsiss the American Dream, but it holds power precisely because so many people have lived their own version of it. And people are willing to fight for their children to have the same opportunity. And they will be heard on November 2.

They say you better listen to the voice of reason

Update: Mitch Berg, who actually has a successful radio program in this market, has much more.

Big news on the local media front, as KSTP, once the go-to place for conservative talk in the Twin Cities, will become the local outpost for ESPN. Brad has a lot of the details and David Brauer from MinnPost has more. A few thoughts:

• Radio is a strange business, but the slow motion immolation of KSTP has been a sight to behold. A few years back they had a lineup you could listen to all day long, with all of it but Rush Limbaugh local. Now they are ceding pretty much everything but the afternoon drive to other stations, at least in terms of local content.
• One of the signal dangers (bad pun, sorry) of listening to consultants is that you can get very bad advice, and the advice that the Hubbards got about the death of conservative talk radio was terrible advice. What the consultants never understood was this: while conservative talk radio was by necessity on defense during the Bush years, there was never any question that at some point the Democrats would return to power and the audience for alternative viewpoints would again increase. Rush Limbaugh's greatest successes have come during the Clinton era and now. KSTP took that success to the bank in the 1990s, but they let Limbaugh go and now a competitor is enjoying the ratings.
• The guys that KSTP brought in, who were supposed to be a better alternative to conservative hosts like Jason Lewis and Bob Davis, were abysmal. Willie Clark was just about unlistenable and "Prebil and Murphy," whatever they were, were boring. And the ratings reflected this. It's awfully tough to do much in morning drive in this market, given the unparalleled success of Tom Barnard at KQRS, but a good morning show with a consistent format could have had a chance. These dudes weren't any good.
• The remaining signature voices at KSTP are Joe Soucheray and Patrick Reusse. They can certainly do sports and are great together. It will do Reusse in particular a lot of good to stay within a tighter format. Reusse is a gifted storyteller and can be funny as hell, but his politics are cookie-cutter leftism of an especially dim variety and it made his morning drive show just about unlistenable. The question is whether or not Joe and Pat's shtick, which has been on the air here for 20 years, is past its sell-by date.

There's more to say about this and I'll get back to it in the coming days.

The Teacher Appears

Too many sad posts lately. Unfortunately, here's another.

When I was in 7th grade, my teacher was a guy named Dave Balliet. Dave died this week. He was only 60 years old and he had suffered from a rare form of cancer for a long, long time. You could search the earth looking for someone who had a bad word to say about Dave Balliet. You would never find that person.

There are some tough jobs in the world, but teaching 7th grade has to be right up there. Your students are not really children any more, but they are hardly adults yet. Kids that age are a dog's breakfast, a tangled mess of emotions and partial understandings of how the world actually is. The typical 7th grader can figure get play the notes, but only rarely does a 7th grader understand the music of life.

In the fall of 1975, I met Dave Balliet. I was a new student at St. Mary's School in Appleton, having spent the previous two years attending a public school in town. I was supposed to go to St. Mary's, but the school didn't have ay available space, so I had cooled my heels at the public school, enduring two largely unhappy years. Before that I had attended another Catholic grade school, St. Therese, but we had moved across town in the summer between 4th and 5th grade. When I finally arrived at St. Mary's as a 7th grader that fall, I was generally a stranger on the playground and being the new kid in school is rarely much fun.

When you are a new kid in school, you have two learning curves -- the academic one and the social one. The second one is much more difficult, especially if you are even the tiniest bit awkward socially. Dave Balliet understood that and looked out for me. He kept an eye on the other kids and made sure that I was welcomed into the school. He also helped me to understand some of the social mores and gave me advice on how to handle some of the "knuckleheads." It took a while, but eventually I figured it out and Dave's counsel made a huge difference.

My great friend Mark Miller compared Dave Balliet's classroom to the televison show "Welcome Back, Kotter," which was airing at that time. It's a pretty apt comparison. Dave had been a student at St. Mary's in the 1960s and was still a young teacher in 1975, with only a couple of years of experience. But even then, he seemed a lot older and experienced than he was. And because he'd been a student, he understood the school and its history. And since it was a Catholic school, he might have gone to school with older siblings of students that were in his classroom in 1975. He understood exactly the kinds of kids he was dealing with -- generally good kids, mostly middle class, but with a few tough stories here and there.

Dave's manner was unlike any other teacher I've had, before or since. The best way I can describe it is enthusiastic gruffness. He had a touch of the curmudgeon in him and sometimes his comments would have a little edge, but the edge was never directed at the students. And he loved to teach. His specialty was social studies and during that 7th grade year he made a semester-long project of following the 1976 presidential primary season. His classroom was filled with handmade posters for the various candidates -- Gerald Ford, Jimmy Carter, Ronald Reagan, Morris Udall and eventually Jerry Brown, who got in late in 1976. I think Dave even tried to talk some kid into making a Milton Shapp poster, but that was a pretty tough sell. We would spend significant class time talking about the race, handicapping the results, making predictions about the next week's slate and studying the history of previous elections. He would ask us to make predictions, but would also ask us to explain why we thought something would happen and wouldn't accept "that's what I think" as an answer. You had to think through the issue. There were more than a few political thinkers who emerged from his classroom.

And beyond the classroom, Dave was a coach. He coached football, basketball and fastpitch softball at St. Mary's and since it was a small school, most of the kids were involved in teams in one form or another. During my 8th grade year I was the student manager of the basketball team and played on the fastpitch softball team.

The enduring memory I have of that team was something that couldn't happen today. We played a season-ending tournament and the games were played at Holy Angels, a parish on the outskirts of town. Dave had to get the team to the games but there wasn't a school bus or other transportation available. So Dave improvised. His dad had an old Chevrolet pickup truck, probably about a 1951 or thereabouts. It was huge and dirty, since its primary use was at the family tree farm about 40 miles west of town. The picture I've included here is about what it looked like, except this one is a lot cleaner. Dave took Dow, the biggest kid on the team, and had him ride shotgun, while the rest of us rode out to the games in the truck bed. Since it was a 3-day tournament, we made multiple trips in the back of that truck. We were very fortunate that a cop didn't stop us, especially since all of us in the back were standing up half the time, hanging on the truck rails and yelling stuff at pedestrians while we rode down College Avenue, the main drag in town. It must have been quite a sight. And because Dave was a very good coach, we ended up winning the tournament.

A few years later Dave moved on to teach at the local technical college and stayed there for the rest of his career. But he never forgot his students from St. Mary's. I'd see him around town from time to time and he'd always want to know what was happening in my life and would have a story about someone I knew. He was genuinely interested in making sure that his students were coming along and continuing to learn.

The old saw has it that when a student is ready, the teacher appears. In the 7th grade, you couldn't have asked for a better teacher than Dave Balliet. At a time in my life when I needed both a teacher and a mentor, Dave was there for me. I have had some remarkably good teachers in my life, but I'm not sure I ever had a better one. Rest in peace, Dave. And thank you.

A Floor Wax AND A Dessert Topping

If you really want to know why AGW is such a great theory, here's why -- it can do ANYTHING.

Consider today's breathless dispatch from Time Magazine concerning how Global Warming is causing the string of snowstorms that has crippled the Eastern seaboard:

Brace yourselves now - this may be a case of politicians twisting the facts. There is some evidence that climate change could in fact make such massive snowstorms more common, even as the world continues to warm. As the meteorologist Jeff Masters points out in his excellent blog at Weather Underground, the two major storms that hit Philadelphia, Baltimore and Washington, D.C., this winter - in December and during the first weekend of February - are already among the 10 heaviest snowfalls those cities have ever recorded. The chance of that happening in the same winter is incredibly unlikely.

But there have been hints that it was coming. The 2009 U.S. Climate Impacts Report found that large-scale cold-weather storm systems have gradually tracked to the north in the U.S. over the past 50 years. While the frequency of storms in the middle latitudes has decreased as the climate has warmed, the intensity of those storms has increased. That's in part because of global warming - hotter air can hold more moisture, so when a storm gathers it can unleash massive amounts of snow. Colder air, by contrast, is drier; if we were in a truly vicious cold snap, like the one that occurred over much of the East Coast during parts of January, we would be unlikely to see heavy snowfall.

Okay, let's hold that thought. Do you remember other recent winters and the effect that Global Warming was ostensibly causing? Tell you what -- see for yourself, based on the testimony of various people who spend a lot of time in the Washington, D.C. area. Click the link and come back: I'll wait.

Hey, Robert Byrd, Barbara Boxer, Amy Klobuchar, Dianne Feinstein and Jay Inslee were quite worried about the lack of snow, which Global Warming was causing then. Now, apparently, it causes massive snow. It's a regular Perpetual Motion Machine of a theory. It's a floor wax and a dessert topping!

I suppose I'm just being provincial or close-minded here. After all, we've been able to share in the fun, too -- the 5-foot tall snowbanks from this year's snowfall (which the local meteorologists have assured me are just at the yearly averages) have turned my driveway into a luge run. This is the 13th winter we've lived in this house and the snowbanks are higher now than they've ever been. Then again, I remember 1979, which was snowier than this year by rather a lot and significantly colder, too. I think one thing is clear -- average doesn't mean much.

There is good news for Amy K. -- the ice fishermen have had no trouble getting their ice houses out on lakes this year. That Global Warming will kill us all and solve all our problems. I just wish everything was as efficient.

Lunch break

It pays to have intelligent friends. A few things I've learned from my friends and colleagues over the lunch hour:

• Night Writer shares the impressive record of the Newspaper of Record.
• Brad Carlson explains how the team doctor of the Miami Dolphins helped to determine the champions of both college and pro football this year.
• Bike Bubba cuts the Gordian Knot.
• And last but hardly least, Mitch Berg announces the social event of the season (aside from Night Writer's Super Bowl Party, of course.)
  

Miss Me Blind

It had been up for more than a month and my Grumpy Old Men colleague K-Rod had noted its existence some time ago, but yesterday the rest of the world discovered the billboard on I-35 up in Wyoming, with the simple question: Miss Me Yet?

The "Me" in question is George W. "Chimpy McHitlerburton" Bush, one-time Leader of the Free World, a/k/a The Decider. Few presidents have left office as unpopular as Mr. Bush, who left as our current financial downturn really got going. This has earned him the nearly daily scorn of the administration that succeeded him.

So do I miss him? For a simple question, there's no simple answer.

• I do miss his administration's foreign policy, especially in its general tough-mindedness. We have attempted to curry favor throughout the world on President Obama's watch and most of what has been returned has been scorn.


• I don't miss his administration's fecklessness, especially on spending. He did very little to stop the relentless ratcheting of spending in Washington and ended up kicking the hard decisions down the road. He's hardly alone in this, of course.

Much of what was said about President Bush was unfair, or even stupid. He wasn't a moron. He disappointed many of his supporters on many issues -- all presidents do that. I guess the way I feel is this: I don't miss him so much as I regret what is happening now.

What say you?

John Murtha, RIP

John Murtha, the old Pennsylvania bull who symbolized what is right about America but equally what is wrong with Congress, died yesterday at the age of 77. A few thoughts:

• It's difficult to remember now, given everything that has happened since then, but Murtha and the rest of his colleagues came to Washington as reformers in the wake of the Watergate scandal. Murtha was unusual in that he was a Vietnam veteran and had served with great distinction and there was much hope that he might be a leader of the group, a group that also included a Norbertine Order Catholic priest named Robert Cornell, who represented my home district, WI-8.


• Fr. Cornell left office in 1978, but John Murtha stayed on. And he soon became involved in the Abscam scandal. He managed to survive that and ended up serving 18 full terms in the Congress, becoming a porkmeister extraordinaire who survived by funneling ample federal largesse to his home district, while making occasional social conservative noises to deflect attention to the larger reality that he was part of the gang.


• Murtha came to prominence late in his career when he became an outspoken critic of the war in Iraq. Because he was a Marine, his words carried far more weight than the typical Congresscritter. Unfortunately, his words were thoughtless and, in the case of his fellow Marines at Haditha, outright slander. My friend Leo Pusateri and his colleagues have amply documented Murtha's career at the Murtha Must Go blog.

So what do we make of this American life? I do not know the condition of Murtha's soul and must presume that a merciful God will welcome the Congressman. The larger issue is that a man can spend nearly 40 years in the Congress. He's hardly alone -- there are plenty of old bulls roaming the halls there. John Dingell has been there for over 50 years. Congressional seats should not be sinecures and it's up to the voters to look for new leadership from time to time. Congressman Murtha came to Washington to reform it, but instead he became part of the thing. His nearly 40-year career deformed him, deformed his district and further impoverished our politics. That's a legacy I'd wish on no one. I pray for his family and thank Congressman Murtha for his long service to the nation, but I regret the results of it. RIP.

We Won't Get Gout Again

Back in late 1965 or thereabouts, Roger Daltrey sang the lyric:

Hope I die before I get old.

Last night, we found out why.

So which superannuated Baby Boom era rock act ought to get the call for next year's Super Bowl? The floor is open.

Lightning Round - Super Bowl Sunday

Gotta go fast.

• The game itself was satisfying, especially since the Saints played very well at the end and perhaps gave the rest of the world the formula for slowing down Peyton Manning. Sean Payton is one gutsy coach; the onside kick to start the 2nd half was perhaps the biggest roll of the dice I've ever seen in a Super Bowl. And Drew Brees was magnificent.
• I've already seen some speculation that Manning's costly interception might hurt his overall legacy as a quarterback. I don't see it. He's done way too many good things in his career and he'll have a decent shot at getting back to the Super Bowl in the next year or two. Most people will tell you that the gold standard for quarterbacking in the modern era is Joe Montana. The league is different now; there are a lot of of really good quarterbacks playing right now and Peyton Manning is still the guy you'd want to have in the clutch.
• Probably should say a few things about the ads. The Focus on the Family/Tim Tebow ad was pretty innocuous and it's amusing in retrospect to see how much fuss it created, although the fuss was awfully revealing. The most interesting ad by a long shot, at least from a political perspective, was the Audi "Green Police" ad. Audi seems to figure that it will sell cars by getting people ahead of the curve, but I think a lot of people won't see that sort of behavior as amusing. We are hectored all the time about our environmental sins and this is just a reminder of why the backlash against the greener than thou is coming.
• Also, if I never see dudes in underwear again, or screaming chickens, that would be a good thing, too.

Proof that President Obama reads the blogs

Much has been said and noted about President Obama being internet-savvy. And we now have conclusive proof that he is an avid blog reader and certainly ahead of the curve.

Over the last few days a massive snowstorm has crippled the mid-Atlantic region. Mr. Obama took note of this yesterday:

WASHINGTON — "Snowmageddon" – that's what President Barack Obama calls the storm that's shut down Washington.

His motorcade made it a few blocks through deserted streets so he could speak at the Democratic National Committee's winter meeting on Saturday.

That's a pretty clever quip. Obama must have found it somewhere. Could it have been in the blogosphere? Why yes. Yes it could.

As I mentioned in my Friday post, my son Ben absolutely loves camping and the Phillipo Scout Reserve may be his favorite place in the world. The camp itself is typical of most Boy Scout installation, a sprawling, beautiful site on the south bank of a dammed up section of the Cannon River known as Lake Byllesby. We arrived on Friday night a few hours prior to the onset of SNOWMAGEDDON. We set up in our cabin and then repaired to the Gwin Center, where we visited with our fellow campers.

So this feature had the term back on February 26, 2007. Back then I hadn't made much effort to publicize the blog at all; outside of my family, about the only regular reader of Mr. Dilettante in early 2007 was the lovely and talented Picklesworth, who in those days went by the name Hammerswing*. I didn't even have a Sitemeter back then to monitor blog traffic. Who could have known that an aspiring presidential candidate was already monitoring this feature and would later mine its vast archives for a quip describing the weather? I appreciate your patronage, Mr. President -- be sure to tell your friends!

Early forecasts indicate that the storm that is approaching Minnesota today will later make its way to the Beltway around mid-week and that it could be similarly ferocious. If President Obama needs a name for the second storm, we've got him covered.

* As alert readers of this feature know, Picklesworth/Hammerswing is of British ancestry, which might explain why he chooses blog handles that sound like bizzaro world London neighborhoods.

Benster and D Pick Your Game -- Super Bowl HYYYYYPPPPE Fest Edition

It's Super Bowl week! I think you know there's a lot of HYYYYYYYYPPPPPPE! And just in case you weren't sure, I'd be happy to supply a little extra HYYYYYYYYPPPPPE!

No, really? Imagine that, Seabiscuit!

I know there are a lot of commercials at the Super Bowl, but we're not here to rap about $5 Taco Bell boxes like Charles Barkley, who should (a) not be rapping at this stage in life and (b) probably ought to be advertising for Jenny Craig or something. Nor are we here to re-enact the Super Bowl Shuffle with the '85 Bears, which doesn't work so well when the participants are all in a nursing home. I can hear it now -- "I'm Otis Wilson and I have no teeth/I keep 'em in a glass that's beyond belief!"

Didn't realize you had these mad rapping skills, Youngblood.

There's a lot of things you don't know, Decrepit! Like where you left your socks! But enough of the trash talking, there's a game to pick. So let's do this.

New Orleans Who Dat? Saints (+5) vs. Indianapolis Mannings. New Orleans has come a long way since Katrina turned the Superdome into the world's largest hospital/refugee camp. Now the Saints are no longer the Aints, who inspired their fans to wear bags over their heads. It was a really good look when combined with Mardi Gras beads. But that's done now. Drew Brees, besides being my fantasy league quarterback supreme monster scoring machine, is at the controls of the NFL's best offense. On the other side, you have Peyton Manning, who was Decrepit's star fantasy league quarterback, and his cast of castoff receivers, and Tom Moore, who looks old enough to be the nursing home roommate of Otis Wilson. My belief is that whoever wins the turnover battle will hoist the Lombardi Trophy. I also think that the Colts will be exposed on defense, especially if Dwight Freeney cannot go. My prediction: Saints win and Drew Brees will be the MVP. Who Dat 70, Island of Misfit Toys 67.

So you're suggesting that a potential bettor might want to pick the over, huh? Although you barely mentioned them, the defenses are likely to show up to play the game, so I think your score might be a little high. To me, this is pretty simple -- Peyton Manning has a chance to prove himself one of the best quarterbacks in NFL history tomorrow. He's had his best season ever in many ways, considering that he's been throwing to people like Austin Collie (which sounds like a cross between a Mike Meyers movie and a Smashing Pumpkins album) and Pierre Garcon (who just sounds French). Can I be honest here? I didn't think the Saints were that good against the Purple squad, but now the citizens of Minnesota understand what the true depth of the Brett Favre Experience. I suspect Brees will play well, but Manning will be better. And therefore I'm picking the Colts. Colts 38, Saints 23.

Believe me, as a Packer fan I know the depths of the Favre Experience. Maybe Favre should be Otis Wilson's roommate in the nursing home. He could rap with Otis. "I'm the grizzled QB from Hattiesburg, I throw interceptions around the world!" Until next season, Ben out!

A question for the audience

So Barack Obama has been president for over a year now. Are we allowed to start holding him accountable for anything yet? Or is he still the Great Inheritor?

The floor is open.

Guilty Pleasures Part Sixty-Three -- A Week in Music

It has not been a very happy week around here for a lot of reasons, which is why we need a little joy. And when it's time for some joy, who else to turn to but. . . Fearless Maria!

Bonjour! Je m'appelle Fearless Maria! I don't know much French, but I can handle that much! So Dad, the title is "A Week in Music." Does that mean we're going to do songs about the days of the week? I suppose we could do Manic Monday, or Tuesday Afternoon, or Friday on My Mind, or Saturday in the Park, or. . . did anyone write a song about Thursday?

I'm having a hard time thinking of a song about Thursday. Maybe that's why we write these things on Thursday!

I'll write a song about Thursday, Dad! Guilty Pleasures, Guilty Pleasures! We write them on Thursday! Guilty Pleasures, Pleasures Guilty, we write them on. . . oh, what rhymes with Thursday anyway?

That might be why there aren't any songs about Thursday, Maria.

It's like trying to rhyme purple, Dad! Or orange! Well, do you have another approach?

Glad you asked, Maria. One thing I do each day on Facebook is post lyrics for a song by an artist whose birthday it is that day. We could look back at the past week or so and see if you like any of these. How does that sound?

I don't know how it sounds, Dad. You haven't played any of the videos, yet! It might sound good, but I'll be the judge of that!

Okay, that appears to be a call to action. Let's start with yesterday's song. As it happens, yesterday was the birthday of Ray Davies of the Kinks. And the song I picked is this one, from about 1970, a cranky little number called:

20th Century Man

I've heard of people having a bad day, Dad, but this guy sounds like he had a bad century! Was it really that bad in the 20th Century, Dad! Or did I plan it out smart by being born 15 days after the 20th Century ended?

I mostly enjoyed the 20th Century, Maria. And I'll bet that Ray Davies enjoyed it a little better than he's letting on in this song.

Well, I hope so, Dad! If he was complaining for the entire century, I'll bet people got pretty tired of him! Of course, if I was wearing ugly plaid pants like the guy was in some of the pictures in that video, maybe I'd have been a little cranky, too! Maybe rotten tomato juice got on his pants or something!

As a good a guess as I've heard. Now, speaking of cranky, the next song is from Graham Nash of Crosby, Stills and Nash, whose birthday was earlier in the week. Graham wasn't very happy about what was going on in Chicago in 1968, so he wrote this song:

Chicago

Dad, I've been to Chicago. It wasn't nearly as bad as these guys were saying! I loved Chicago! Didn't they go to Millennium Park?

No, it didn't exist then.

I know that -- I was teasing! But maybe that would have made them feel a little better about it. They could have played in the fountain instead of whining like 3-year olds!

The weird part, Maria, is that on some of the same land where the fountain is in Millennium Park, the Chicago police were having a big fight with the hippies.

The hippies! I can see it now -- hippie hippie forward hippie hippie arrest!

That's about what it was like, Maria.

Well, glad I waited until 2008 to go to Chicago, then! Forty years seems to have made a difference!

Indeed. So the next song was for Mike Campbell, who is one of Tom Petty's Heartbreakers. This song is one of their very first ones, from way back in 1978, on an appearance on the British music show The Old Grey Whistle Test.

American Girl

Dad, I'm an American Girl, too, but I sure don't have the problems that this girl they're singing about seems to have! So do you think that the American Girl Company, with all the awesome dolls, would want to hire Tom Petty? He's a little cranky, but he seems to like American Girls better than the Guess Who likes an American Woman!

That's an excellent point, Maria. I hadn't thought of that!

Well, that's why I'm here, Dad! I get what you leave out!

Indeed you do, Maria. So shall we move on?

Sure. So who's next?

The next birthday belongs to Phil Collins of Genesis, who has every reason to be happy, given the huge piles of money he's earned over the years.

I guess Genesis didn't need to take an Exodus from making money, huh, Dad?

Nope. But they did get to prowl the streets of Amsterdam (I think) on this song from 1981:

Keep It Dark

Dad, didn't you say that Genesis was very successful?

Yes, I did. Why do you ask?

Well, they seemed to get through that whole video without ever actually having full instruments! Couldn't they afford them? Phil Collins was walking around Europe with just drumsticks? That seems strange to me! Or did he have to uh, keep it dark?

The streets in Amerstdam are pretty narrow, Maria. Maybe they couldn't get the tour bus in.

I don't think that's it, Dad. And why would they need a tour bus anyway -- no one would have recognized them in those big trenchcoats! They look like Sherlock Holmes with drumsticks!

It is very mysterious, Maria. Maybe the next song will make more sense.

Based on your track record so far, Dad, I'm not going to count on it. What do you have?

Okay. Another recent birthday was for Louie Perez of one of my favorite bands, Los Lobos. And I've always liked this particular song, a simple shuffle called:

That Train Don't Stop Here

They sure love to jam, don't they? They just keep playing and playing their song! That's a really long train ride, no wonder they didn't stop!

Yeah, they like to play. But they play very well.

If they keep playing much longer, the moon is going to come out and they'll be playing in the moonlight!

Funny you should mention that, Maria --

Oh, did I set you up again, Dad?

You sure did. Another birthday person was Phil Lynnott, the bassist and lead singer of the 1970s Irish band Thin Lizzy. Phil is no longer with us, but this song still works and it's got some moonlight going for it:

Dancing in the Moonlight

Sounds like that if they really got into it, their hair would get caught in the spotlight -- literally! Now these guys really look like 70s guys! I like the finger snapping, but tell me this, Dad -- did they not make buttons in the 1970s?

Why do you ask?

Look at the video, Dad -- their shirts are wide open and you can see all their gross chest hair! Who are they trying to be, Hairy Potter?

I suspect they weren't always up on the grooming tips, Maria.

Well, I can't help them now, but if they were here, I'd have a little talk with them!

I'm almost afraid to show the next video to you, although I think these guys have a little better grooming. The last birthday belongs to guitarist Andy Cox of the English Beat, who recorded this song in 1982:

I Confess

I confess that this is kind of a weird video, with some guy dressed up as an archbishop and then another guy wearing eye shadow and a cape! He's weirder than Thin Lizzy or even the Kinks' pants! That's saying something, Dad!

So you don't approve, Maria?

Of course not! If there was a survey for this band, and the choices for clothing were excellent, great, fair or poor, I'd make my own line and say extremely poor! It is a good song, but they probably need to visit a clothing store or something!

Well, that's a week's worth of music.

And the best part is that most of it wasn't really that weak! So you know what to do, people! Vote in the comment section! And don't come around here wearing any weird plaid pants!

State of Grace

We knew it was coming, but that didn't make it any easier to see on the CaringBridge page.

Sunday, January 31, 2010 11:04 AM, CST

Surrounded by his family, our dear John was called to his peaceful resting place early this morning. We are thankful he is now at peace and no longer suffering.

John Kunstman is my cousin and my contemporary. He was born about a year before me, but we both graduated from high school in 1981 and from college in 1985. He had been a succesful corporate executive, was a devoted husband for 17 years and the father of two children. John was 47 years old, felled by metastatic cancer that started as an innocent-looking mole on his back two years ago, but one that later spread to his lymphatic system and then throughout his body. On at least two occasions, John had thought he was cancer-free. But the cancer returned, each time with greater ferocity, despite the care and attention of world-class oncologists. While the words on John's CaringBridge site were often circumspect, one can surmise that he suffered greatly in the last six months of his life, not only from the pain he was enduring, but from the growing realization that his journey was coming to an end far sooner than he could have imagined.

John and his siblings grew up in Cudahy, Wisconsin, a working-class suburb of Milwaukee that was near the airport and is perhaps most famous for being the home base of Patrick Cudahy, a prominent meat supplier best known for supplying bacon to supermarkets throughout the country. I remember visiting John's house a few times as a kid and the roar of airplanes overhead was a constant feature of his world. John and his siblings were all excellent athletes and they were all outstanding students as well. John ended up going to the University of Wisconsin-Madison, earning a business degree, then beginning a steady climb up the corporate ladder.

I always remembered John as being a focused guy -- he would meet you with a firm handshake and a steady gaze that sometimes seemed a little intense to me. He had an excellent sense of humor, but you always got the sense that he was serious and had a plan for his life. While I didn't see a lot of John over the years, it was clear that he was living his life well; he was an avid cyclist, worked hard and was able to adapt as he moved from place to place, from Milwaukee, to Indianapolis, Atlanta, Roanoke and on to suburban Washington, DC. He was a director-level financial executive at one of the largest healthcare companies in the country and it was clear that he had achieved great success in his life. And then the cancer came.

There are no tidy answers for those of us who mourn John's passing. God has a plan for all of us and there are times when that plan seems incomprehensible. This would be one of those times. We struggle to understand why John faced such a difficult journey and such a lonely one, even though his devoted family was there every step of the way.

John's college degree was in actuarial science, which is a necessary but often joyless endeavor. I'm guessing that John spent a fair amount of his career looking at numbers and data points without ever having to consider that his own number would come up so soon, that he would end up being an outlier on the actuarial table.

We are awfully good at reducing people to numbers and data points. It's something we do every day, just as aggregate numbers of the living and dying are part of the business in which John spent his working life. We love our numbers and we hate them, too. Numbers can tell many stories. My son sometimes chafes at the notion of grades, arguing that the number doesn't tell you the whole story. But one thing I know -- John understood that the numbers stand for something greater than data points. John cared about the people in his life and challenged them to be better -- the testimony of his colleagues on the CaringBridge site and the various online memorials that I've read are proof of that.

But in the end, even if you have everyone who loves you as you make the journey, you still have to face the solitary number you are. Somehow, John was able to make his peace with it. John said this to his brothers Andy and Greg shortly before he died:

"I have nothing to complain about, I have had a great life."

There's no disputing that. Our task, as we mourn this special man, is to do a little better, to understand that our complaints are transitory, to get beyond our complaints and to leave footprints, to make this world a better place. John could have complained about many things, but he found a way to leave this world and enter the next world with grace. It's a lesson worth remembering and a challenge for those of us who remain. Nothing in this world is promised to us, but promise remains. And the promise God has made to all of us is the one promise that matters in the end.

Lightning Round 020310

Fast. Fierce. Funny. That's right, it's time for another edition of the Lightning Round!

• So Rahm Emanuel, the president's ever-excitable, R-rated chief of staff, got in trouble for calling Democratic activists "f******** retards." Chastened, he has apparently decided to apologize to Tim Shriver of the Special Olympics. He has not apologized to the Democrats he insulted, though. Feel the love, activists!
• Rahm is not alone, of course. The President himself has a propensity to take shots at his friends as well. Consider the grief he's caused his chief water-carrier in the Senate, the lovely and talented Harry Reid, by bashing Las Vegas. Things aren't going so well in Sin City these days and Reid is in a lot of trouble. Here's a bet (pun intended) -- Obama's comments won't help him much.
• Fred Thompson demonstrates the joy of Twittering.
• Megan McArdle of the Atlantic Monthly seems to think the President is a little unclear on the concept, pointing out what she terms the "Quote of the Decade." Oh, the decade is young, Ms. McArdle. Rahm Emanuel could have that topped by lunch.

Caucus Day, New Brighton Precinct 1

I went to my caucus this evening -- New Brighton Precinct 1, House District 50B. I sat in a classroom at Mounds View High School with about 35 of my neighbors. The work at a caucus is nuts and bolts stuff -- pick the precinct leadership, pick delegates for the BPOU, start the process of selecting delegates for the state convention. And there's a little bit of politicking, too.

Back in 2008, the caucuses were absolutely nuts. There were probably 1,000 people at the caucus that time. This time, there were probably a third that many. The frenzy of 2008 was replaced with a smaller group of citizens, much more low-key, but focused. We heard from a potential candidate willing to take on the incumbent state representative. We batted around a few resolutions for changing the party platform. And we voted in a straw poll for governor.

I haven't written much about the governor's race yet, because I'm still trying to sort out the candidates. There are two frontrunners on the Republican side -- Tom Emmer and Marty Seifert -- and you could make a plausible case for either of them. As it happened, in our precinct Seifert got 18 votes and Emmer received 12, while the other votes were spread among the other candidates.

The sense I get is that the party apparatus is behind Seifert, but the activists support Emmer. It's easy to understand the reasons for this -- Seifert, although not yet 40 years old, has represented his Marshall-area district for over a decade and has paid his dues. Emmer represents the Delano area, which was once a rural area but is now on the edge of suburbia. These are both traditional, but very different, Republican areas. Emmer, who is a dynamic speaker and a forceful advocate for conservative values, is the sort of candidate who hits an activist's fun button. Seifert can be dynamic, but he's not as gifted on the stump. And while appearances shouldn't necessarily matter, Seifert is prematurely balding and looks like an assistant claims adjuster. Conversely, Emmer has what the Dilbert cartoonist Scott Adams calls "executive hair" and looks the part.

So how do we sort it out? We don't have to, yet. The conservation began in earnest today, in precincts throughout the state. And there will be a lot more to say. We'll be going to the BPOU on February 27. And by then we should know a lot more.

Radio Free Dilettante — Caucus Edition

No one should run on this platform:

Last Five:
Hot Rod Lincoln, Commander Cody and His Lost Planet Airmen
Drinkin' Muddy Water, The Yardbirds
The Times They Are A-Changin', Bob Dylan
Helter Skelter, U2
I've Been Everywhere, Johnny Cash


Next Five:
Heartbeat City, The Cars
Smokin' from Shootin', My Morning Jacket
Cocoanut Woman, Harry Belafonte
Hot 'Lanta, The Allman Brothers Band
I Don't Wanna Go Down to the Basement, The Ramones

Caucus Day

We talk a lot about politics 'round here, but there are times when talking isn't enough. Sometimes you have to take action. And today is a day in Minnesota when you can.

It's caucus day and the parties are holding caucuses throughout the state. For those of you who live in House District 50B, the caucus will take place tonight at Mounds View High School, 1900 Lake Valentine Road in Arden Hills. More info is available here at the House Republican 50B website.

We'll talk about a number of topics at the event, including the party platform and the potential candidates for governor, state representative and state senate. If you want to see Minnesota start to move away from the big government model that our DFL overlords prefer, the work starts tonight. Join us -- I'll see you there.

Even More Bad News for Copenhagen Kate

No wonder AGW advocates are concerned about heat. The heat is definitely on in the British media:

The IPCC's remit is to provide an authoritative assessment of scientific evidence on climate change.

In its most recent report, it stated that observed reductions in mountain ice in the Andes, Alps and Africa was being caused by global warming, citing two papers as the source of the information.

However, it can be revealed that one of the sources quoted was a feature article published in a popular magazine for climbers which was based on anecdotal evidence from mountaineers about the changes they were witnessing on the mountainsides around them.

The other was a dissertation written by a geography student, studying for the equivalent of a master's degree, at the University of Berne in Switzerland that quoted interviews with mountain guides in the Alps.

The revelations, uncovered by The Sunday Telegraph, have raised fresh questions about the quality of the information contained in the report, which was published in 2007.

It comes after officials for the panel were forced earlier this month to retract inaccurate claims in the IPCC's report about the melting of Himalayan glaciers.

Well, the good thing is that the IPCC is really concerned about scientific rigor and peer review, so it's okay to include some anecdotal information, right? Well...

The claims about disappearing mountain ice were contained within a table entitled "Selected observed effects due to changes in the cryosphere produced by warming".

It states that reductions in mountain ice have been observed from the loss of ice climbs in the Andes, Alps and in Africa between 1900 and 2000.

The report also states that the section is intended to "assess studies that have been published since the TAR (Third Assessment Report) of observed changes and their effects".

But neither the dissertation or the magazine article cited as sources for this information were ever subject to the rigorous scientific review process that research published in scientific journals must undergo.

Maybe next time our local representative and AGW enthusiast, Kate Knuth, holds a town meeting, she might want to address some of these issues. I'd suggest that she do so.