Why you do it

Mitch Berg and a lot of other local bloggers have been digging around a little bit on the events of this most recent election day, but I was struck by the reaction he got from posting something he'd received via e-mail:

I got this email. The author asked to remain anonymous:

Mitch, in 2008 my mentally incompetent mother at an assisted living facility in St. Paul probably voted. We never had her declared incompetent, but the staff knew she was completely out of it. They also knew she was so afraid of being kicked out of a place she liked she would do whatever the staff person told her to do. She literally didn’t know what day of the week it was let alone who was running for office. I was the responsible party. I never changed her voter registration when she moved. Somehow she registered to vote at her new address. I found absentee ballot application information in her apartment as well as an I Voted sticker on her walker. I was livid, but it was after the election so there was nothing I could do. Before senile dementia had set in she adored Norm Coleman but you can bet her vote went to Franken.

I suspect a lot of this goes on. After all, SEIU represents a lot of nursing home staff.

You file that under the "interesting if true" file. Mitch's somewhat mordant summation:

I have a hunch this state could keep an army of investigators busy.

Yeah, I kinda think so, too. But what was interesting was the response he got from one of his regular commenters, a lefty who goes by Dog Gone:

Beyond that – shame on you, damn it, for spreading more slander about the legitimacy of voters. The responsibility for allowing or denying this woman her legal right to vote is NOT within the authority of health care staff at an assisted living facility.

And frankly, if someone IS involved actively with their relative at such a facility, they would be in better communication with the staff about such decisions and such care.

To promote the idea that low paid incredibly kind people who do a really difficult job in caring for these people, of the most personal and frequently unpleasant kinds of care – a job we all used to do for the elderly much more ourselves – to question their integrity in this way is just beyond vile.

But, you might ask, why would a woman with dementia vote at all? And why would she have an "I Voted" sticker? Dog Gone's reply:

Similarly, there are many occasions where bright stickers are used by the staff for the residents and patients. It is a source of continuing interaction where that contact, that interaction is decreasing daily. The presence of a sticker is so far from an indication of wrongdoing as to be laughable if it were not so nasty.

I don't doubt that many nursing homes use stickers as a visual indicator that something has been done. But they don't sell "I Voted" stickers at Staples.

The vehemence you get from asking these questions is pretty striking. And so we're clear -- even if one could prove malfeasance, there's nothing much that can be done about it once the votes are cast.

No, the reason you raise these allegations and attempt to document them is so people realize they can't get by with it going forward.

Choosing the Pro-Life Candidate

I'm late to this party, but I think it's worth highlighting something that Chad the Elder wrote last week over at Fraters Libertas:

Wait a second. You mean to tell me that social issues still matter? That people are motivated to vote for particular candidates because of their stands on these issues and that these issues can make the difference in the election's outcome? Who would have thunk it? Certainly not Tom Emmer.

Just a few short weeks ago, the Republican candidate for governor appeared on a local weekend conservative talk radio show. When the brash young host dared raise a question about one of these issues, Emmer immediately slapped the whippersnapper down by retorting, "We're not going to talk about that. We're only going to talk about jobs and the economy."

And what has all that talk about jobs and the economy gotten Emmer? A nine-thousand vote deficit and looming recount that he will almost assuredly lose. To Mark bleepin' Dayton.

There were other things that the Emmer campaign didn't address, but this one might have hurt. Consider what happened in the 8th Congressional District, where Chip Cravaack unseated the eternal incumbent, Jim Oberstar. There were a number of reasons that Oberstar lost, but one that mattered was his vote on Obamacare, which effectively ended the charade that he was somehow pro-life. Chad explains:

What was different this time around was that the voters in the Eighth were finally able to understand that when it came to abortion, Oberstar was pro-life in name only. His decision to set aside his supposedly staunch pro-life principles to vote for ObamaCare showed where he really stood when the rubber was introduced to the road. And people noticed. . . .

Had Oberstar voted against ObamaCare he almost certainly would have been reelected as his Democratic colleague Collin Peterson--who had the courage to follow his pro-life convictions in voting against it--was in Minnesota's Seventh District. Social issues did matter in the Eighth District. Tom Emmer's refusal to talk about them may help explain why while Chip Cravaack beat Oberstar by 4,402 votes, Emmer lost the Eighth District to Dayton by around 20,000 (rough estimate) and why he ran behind Cravaack in every single county in the district.

It's easy to understand why Emmer, who had established clear pro-life bona fides during his time as a state rep, didn't think he needed to talk about social issues. It's not likely that pro-life voters would have selected Dayton or Horner, who both were for abortion rights. But can you imagine that there were enough pro-life voters who didn't think it mattered because Emmer didn't make a point of mentioning his bona fides? Emmer was well-known to Capitol observers before the election season, but only the political junkies knew who he was. He had to make a more complete introduction to other voters, especially those who don't hang on every word uttered by David Schultz or Eric Black. We may never know if Emmer blew it on this issue, but I'd bet that the election results would have been a hell of a lot more to Emmer's liking if he'd made the point about his being the only pro-life candidate a few more times.

You think you're so illustrious, you call yourself intense

I remember watching Keith Olbermann back in his ESPN days and he was amusing, especially when paired on SportsCenter with the affable Dan Patrick. He's long since left what is known in the biz as the "toy department" and has long been a very strange presence on MSNBC.

What I've never been able to figure out is this: how much of what he says is real and how much of it is shtick. I think this piece by Ed Driscoll is spot on. Driscoll quotes a reader on Instapundit who described Olbermann thus:

The act is not at all what Olbermann says it is. It’s a very old act: The fire and brimstone preacher.

The left has become horrifically sanctimonious. They have become what they hated in the right back in the 60s.

Every issue for the left is a moral issue on the level of the Vietnam War and the Civil Rights movement. So, their opponents are always wicked devils consumed with sin.

And, it’s their job to save us from eternal damnation.

Olbermann is just the secular version of the fire and brimstone preacher.

Just nowhere near as attractive or moving.

You do get a sense that had Olbermann been born 350 years earlier, he'd have been fully capable of being Jonathan Edwards. Although I'd say Edwards is a lot more fair-minded.

An instructive difference

I don't know if Brad Childress saved his job yesterday, but I'd bet that Wade Phillips lost his.

The Vikings were getting their butts kicked and looked terrible yesterday -- in fact, they looked so bad that I turned the game off and went out to do some yard work. By the time I got back in from cleaning up leaves in the back yard, the score was tied and they went on to stuff Arizona in overtime and score a winning field goal. With all the soap opera elements at Winter Park, it would have been easy for the Vikings to lay down and die. They didn't.

Then last night I watched my beloved Packers kick Dallas to the curb. Not that it was that difficult to do. The Cowboys put on a shameful performance in Green Bay yesterday and it was obvious that they had quit as a team. It's tough to win without your quarterback but the way Dallas was playing it wouldn't have mattered if Tony Romo were out there.

As much as I enjoyed seeing the Packers play very well yesterday, it's difficult to really gauge how good a team they actually are. It's much easier to tell that the Cowboys are terrible.

Home Truth

Charles Krauthammer in the Washington Post:

Nor should Republicans overinterpret their Tuesday mandate. They received none. They were merely rewarded for acting as the people's proxy in saying no to Obama's overreaching liberalism. As one wag put it, this wasn't an election so much as a restraining order.

The Republicans won by default. And their prize is nothing more than a two-year lease on the House. The building was available because the previous occupant had been evicted for arrogant misbehavior and, by rule, alas, the House cannot be left vacant.

Same thing goes in St. Paul -- every legislative office will again be contested in 2012. All the Republican Party really got on Tuesday was an opportunity. If they blow it this time, they probably won't get another. That's why the smart Republicans aren't celebrating.

Benster and D Pick Your Games -- Noooooo! Edition

Look, we have to do this, people! You know that Packer fans are feeling the HYYYYYYYPPPPE!

Yep. And even if they weren't, you wouldn't let that persist, now would you Youngblood?

In the words of Rupert Murdoch, NO! But now we need to pick some games, or maybe I should say it's time to kick your butt again, Decrepit?

Unfortunately, you could say that. Roll that beautiful bean footage:

Minnesota Golden Roadkill (+24) vs. Sparty the Spartan. I bet somewhere a Gopher fan is poking holes in a Tim Brewster voodoo doll. What a mess this goofball left behind! I bet Jeff Horton feels like the maid cleaning up after Led Zeppelin came through the hotel, but I don't want to see him wearing a maid uniform. Are we clear on that? Good. As for the game, Michigan State is angry after getting Rickrolled (or should I say RickyStanziRolled?) in Iowa City last week. The Gophers have less career prospects than Rick Astley does right now, although Adam Weber should get his obligatory garbage time touchdown pass after the Gophers are down by a bazillion or so. This is Sparta 300, Gophers 7.

That score won't happen, but I'm guessing you knew that and just couldn't resist the joke. Unfortunately, the Gophers are a pretty bad joke, too. The Spartans will be angry and it won't go well for our unfortunate locals. Michigan State 42, Gophers 17.

Beloved Wisconsin Badgers (-20) vs. Purdon't Boilermakers. The Boilermakers are a long ways away from Drew Brees. They're on their fourth quarterback, who might be Nancy Drew for all I know. Even Carmen Sandiego might be enough if they can find her. Or maybe we should get Waldo involved? ¿Dónde está Waldo? No matter what, the Boilermakers are feeling lost, even at home. Badger Badger Badger 50, Purdon't 0.

The Badgers have played well recently, but I'm shocked to see a 20 point line in their favor for a Big Ten road game. The Boilers are hurting, but I don't think the Badgers are going to win by 20. Maybe 17? Wisconsin 34, Purdue 17.

TCU Horned Frogs (-4 1/2) vs. Utah Utes. I may have mentioned that I really hate the BCS. Here are two teams that are outside the BCS. Both are undefeated. Both would kick a lot of BCS-eligible schools where it hurts. And yet one of these teams will be out of the BCS bowls after this game is over. My theory is that Oregon will be the only BCS school that is undefeated at the end of the year and Boise State will win out. So maybe both of these schools are out of luck. Do we need a playoff? You kiddin' me? Of course we need a playoff, ya jackwagon! Utes 28, TCU 27.

I have no idea how to pick this game. Utah joins the Pac-10 next year so they'll get to sit at the adult table going forward. So for no other reason than to disagree with the Benster, I'll go with the Horned Frogs, who always deserve mention just for being the Horned Frogs. TCU 31, Utah 24.

Arizona Iced Tea (+8 1/2) vs. Minnesota Rolling Stones. Why Rolling Stones, you ask? Well, they gather no Moss, of course! What a spectacle this team is! I'm reminded of what happened a few years back, at the very end of the 2003 season. Say it with me, kids -- NOOOOOOOO! Wow, that never gets old! Anyway, this year P.A. is probably wondering why his favorite quarterback still has a cell phone contract. The Vikings will have to readjust to life without Randy, who has been exiled to Nashville, where he's likely spending most of his time annoying people at the Grand Ole Opry. If that's not bad enough, Percy Harvin might not be able to go, which means we might get our first look at the immortal Hank Baskett. The Vikings will win because they are a desperate team at home. And a weird one, too. Don't Text Me, Bro 20, Nate Poole Nation 17.

Moss had better watch it -- if he washes out in Nashville that means his next stop is Branson. Maybe he can be the opening act for Jim Stafford or something. Anyway, as for the game, I really have no idea what the Vikings are going to do. The Cardinals are using Derek Anderson as their quarterback, which is essentially a form of surrender. I think the Vikes play well this week and win easily, although it would hardly surprise me if they cough up another hairball. Vikings 34, Cardinals 14.

Dallas How 'Bout Them Cowboahs (+8) vs. Glorious Green Bay Packers. So if the Packers have a bunch of guys in St. Vincent Hospital, do you think that the Cowboys have Tony Romo staying in St. Landry's? That's right, Tony Romo is out, which means the Cowboys come to town with Jon Kitna as their quarterback. That's a lot like going to Vegas and seeing Frank Sinatra Jr. I do expect Wade Phillips to get fired pretty soon and the Cowboys can go after some fast-talking southern coach like Mack Brown or something like that. Meanwhile, the Packers are getting better and that's not good news for the boys from Big D, especially considering the Packers were able to shut out the Jets in New Jersey last week, with guys they picked up off the street. Green Bay 49, Fire Wade Phillips 0.

One problem with your theory, Benster -- the Pack did pitch a shutout last week, but they only scored 9 points themselves. Of course, that's enough to beat the point spread. So what the heck. Packers 9, Cowboys 0.

Bear Down Chicago da Bearz (-3) vs. Buffalo Bills, in Toronto. The way the Bills have been playing, maybe they can be the opening act for Randy Moss in Branson. They evidently meet the standards for substandard performance. Oh, Canada indeed -- if the NFL keeps sending games this bad to Canada, don't be surprised if Ottawa breaks off diplomatic relations sometime soon. I wouldn't be surprised if the Bills are turned back by Customs. The good news for da Bearz is that Buffalo doesn't have anyone who can rush the passer, although the way da Bearz block, it's possible that anyone in the stands in Rogers Centre will be able to sack Jay Cutler. Ditka, Ditka! 70, On the run from the Mounties 0.

Can't argue with you, this isn't the most attractive way to feature the NFL across the border. The Bears are a mess right now and while Buffalo has improved recently, they are 0-7 on merit. And after the Bears are done with them, I'm thinking 0-8. Bears 17, Bills 10.

I wouldn't be surprised if Jeff Horton gets kicked into a random pit in East Lansing. Some people would argue that East Lansing itself is a random pit, but not me. But I could be persuaded to think so. I would also add that C. J. Spiller shouldn't be thrown into a Mountie prison, because he's on my fantasy football team. Ben out!

il miglior fabbro

I tried to explain this a few posts back, but Kevin Ecker does a better job. In the previous legislative session, the DFL inadvertently screwed themselves. As part of a much longer election post-mortem, Ecker lays out Mark Dayton's dilemma:

The Governor’s seats is still up for grabs. If it’s Emmer than Republicans control all three legs and they get run of the board. But even if it’s Dayton, with Republicans in charge of both Houses, his agenda is a dead stick. But it gets worse for DFL and they have only themselves to blame.

Last session we had the opposite situation, a DFL legislature with a GOP Governor. When the DFL couldn’t come up with a budget they simply passed an unreasonable one and adjourned and made it Pawlenty’s problem. Pawlenty in turn used unallotment. Well the DFL collectively wet themselves and through the courts made sure that couldn’t be done ever again. So now facing a $6 billion deficit, what are Dayton’s options?? Either he agrees to the Republican’s version of a budget, thereby pissing off his base and making the right happy. Or he shuts down the government and calls the legislature into a special session, thereby pissing off his base and mildly annoying the right. The Legislature in turn, if they really want to play hardball can just keep passing the same budget until Dayton relents. After all, what is Dayton’s recourse??? Bitch to the media that the legislature won’t raise taxes??? Yeah, that’ll get sympathy from the public.

That's really perfect. Tim Pawlenty did a lot of things that gave conservatives indigestion, but using unallotment in 2009 was a genius move. And now a potential DFL governor has very few options in dealing with the lege.

Kevin explains a whole lot of other things in his excellent election post-mortem. Read the whole thing.

Speaking of Tea. . . .

The invaluable Sheila Kihne points us to a very good blog post from a local blogger named Crystal Kelley, who is doing the work that perhaps Pat Kessler or John Croman or Rachel Stassen-Berger ought to have done. An excerpt:

I ran across an article from the StarTribune, published July 4 2010, which lead me down a path that questions Mark Dayton’s sobriety. The article was titled, "Mark Dayton: a topsy-turvey ride." In the second paragraph article, something caught my eye. It said, "Sipping from a bottle of kombucha, a fermented tea that has become a campaign trail staple, this former U.S. senator is trying to revive an up-and-down political career at age 63."

Fermented tea? Doesn't "fermented" usually mean something has turned to alcohol? There began my research on kombucha, the official drink of the Dayton campaign.

What I found was a treasure trove of reasons why an alcoholic shouldn't be downing kombucha tea, and if he is, he is no longer sober according to the sobriety requirements of Alcoholics Anonymous. Here's an article on Relapse Prevention, which may apply to this situation, because this tea is well known for its varying alcohol content.

There's more:

Kombucha, in fact, may contain much more alcohol than mentioned above. On June 28, 2010, the New York Times reported Whole Foods pulled the product from their shelves because, "the alcohol content might be high enough to attract the attention of the federal government."

Well, they were right.

Two days later, the Treasury Department issued a warning stating kombucha may be subject to the same taxes and regulations as other beverages containing alcohol. The agency said it “is coordinating with the Food and Drug Administration (FDA) to ensure kombucha products currently on the market comply with Federal laws..."

Analysts said some kombucha teas sold under brand names like Synergy can
ferment after shipment, raising the alcohol content from a legal 0.5 percent or less to as high as 3 percent, similar to some beers.

Mark Dayton got north of 900,000 votes. Do you suppose that it might have made a difference if someone with a larger megaphone than Crystal Kelley would have brought it to the attention of the public? Kelley makes a somewhat, ahem, astringent point at the end of her piece:

There is a saying made famous by the movie, "28 Days," starring Sandra Bullock. It addresses when an addict should try to have a serious relationship. It is, in a nutshell, after an addict has become sober he should buy a potted plant. If after one year the plant is still alive, he should buy a pet. If after the second year the pet is alive, then in the third year the addict may begin to consider having a serious relationship with another person.

We don’t know exactly where Dayton falls on that sobriety spectrum. But either way it’s too soon for him to be entering into the very important relationship of governor of an entire state with responsibility for roughly five million souls. I just think it's unwise.

I'd have to agree with that. But now it's too late. Read the whole thing.

More Tea Leaves -- Things That Make You Go Hmmm.

You really shouldn't conduct an autopsy before the corpse actually arrives, but that hasn't stopped some of the long knives from coming out for Tom Emmer's campaign. It's premature, since the election results won't be confirmed for a month or more. But in thinking about the campaign, one thing has been bugging me and I'd love to get an answer to this question:

Why didn't anyone go after Mark Dayton's problems with the bottle?

Clearly, Dayton's struggles were fair game. He'd aired out a highly selective version of his dirty laundry before he formally launched the campaign, so there were plenty of trails for his opponents to use. But nothing came of it, really.

During the primary, I was convinced that Matt Entenza, who spent millions of his wife's money for a campaign that went essentially nowhere, would take a shot at Dayton's problems, but Entenza never did. That was puzzling, as Entenza was sharp-elbowed enough to go dirt-mongering against Mike Hatch in a previous cycle.

So I figured that the Emmer campaign, knowing that its man had a few long-ago scratches on his record, would shell Dayton like a pistachio.

I especially thought that Emmer would drop the Marquess of Queensbury approach after Dayton's henchmen/family at the helm of "Alliance for a Better Minnesota" starting running a despicable drunk driving ad, in which a visibly angry woman who had lost her son to a drunk driver spat out imprecations at Tom Emmer as though Emmer were somehow personally responsible. The barely controlled rage with which she spat out "Tom EMMurrh!", in a manner that suggested she'd swallowed a box elder bug, made the ad memorable and devastating. What made it worse is that every scripted assertion this woman made in the ad was either misleading or flat-out wrong. But we'll leave that aside.

There was an obvious rejoinder available to that ad -- we're sorry about your loss, ma'am, but avenging your loss by supporting the political campaign of a recidivist alcoholic is probably not the best course you might take. But neither the Emmer campaign nor any of its allies ever made that point. Nor did the Emmer campaign make the entirely reasonable followup, which would be to ask how Dayton would be able to handle the pressures of executive leadership, given his documented battle with the bottle. But the entire campaign passed and the matter never really came up.

There was a reason for this, but I don't know what it is. I'd like to know the reason. Wouldn't you?

Lunchtime Observations

Two things:

• I don't write about Michele Bachmann much here because (a) she's not my representative and (b) I'm not always fond of the way she does things. One thing I will say, though -- she has all the right enemies and she the way Bachmann drives her enemies around the bend is deeply useful. The amount of money that the Left spent on the campaign of the hapless Tarryl Clark was nothing short of astonishing. It was an incredible fool's errand to support Clark, given the demographics of MN-06. Bachmann won easily, of course. If you want to know why, Luke Hellier over at MDE has the reason. Angry lefties from all over the country poured their money into a completely lost cause and they didn't get even a microgram of catharsis out of the deal. I don't care who you are, that's funny.
• "lsm" is an excellent local blogger and she has written the first long analysis/post-mortem I've read concerning Tom Emmer's campaign, posted over at True North. I'm going to write more about Emmer in the coming days, but lsm's take is well worth your time, even though I don't agree with some of her conclusions.
  

A question for the audience

2010 is pretty much in the books now. So of course that means it's already time to talk about 2012, right?

I know, you don't want to do that yet. But just for the sake of argument, let's think about two races.

In Minnesota, Amy Klobuchar, who like Mark Dayton trades primarily on the value of a family brand name, is up for reelection.

In Wisconsin, Herb Kohl, whose family name is a brand name of some repute, is also up for reelection.

Who should be the opponents of these two, ahem, worthies?

More Tea Leaves

There's still a lot to think about in this election cycle, but I've come to a few tentative conclusions about what may lie ahead. First, three thoughts about the man who will likely be the next governor, Mark Dayton.

• Mark Dayton wanted to be governor in the worst way and he's getting his wish. By presumably winning election while his party simultaneously managed to lose control of both houses of the Minnesota legislature, he now finds himself in a tough place. The lege has the power of the purse and they will start cutting things that Dayton and the DFL holds dear. They'll have a rationale to do so, of course -- there's that $6 billion budget deficit that has to be solved, after all. Unless I miss my guess, the Republicans will use some of the same sorts of dilatory tactics that the DFL has used in previous sessions and present a budget to the governor at the last possible minute, putting Dayton in a position where he'll either have eat the cuts that the legislature provides, or he'll end up vetoing the bill and shutting down the government. He can call the legislature back into special session, but the GOP leadership won't have any incentive to save his bacon. And because Dayton went around the DFL apparat to get the nomination, he'll have to watch his back.
• Worse, Dayton has no place to hide. He, like Barack Obama, was previously a senator and I don't believe that being a senator provides the proper skill set for what is very much an executive job. Even though many senators tend to be voluble strutting peacocks a la Chuck Schumer, Dayton isn't really like that. He spent a lot of his time in Washington in the shadows. He would sometimes bluster a bit in a committee hearing, but by and large he was a backbencher and had little or no influence on events during his term. He's going to have to be at the center of things now and I doubt that he's going to do well at it. You can package a candidate and vilify an opponent, especially with a compliant media, and you might be able to make the sale to a portion of the electorate. Can he make sale as governor? I'm skeptical.
• One of the more interesting questions that will come up in the next year or two is the matter of a new Vikings stadium. There's going to be little support for public funding and the DFL, long beholden to casino money from Native American tribes, is unlikely to look at alieanting a key funding source by championing a racino. The Vikings are tapping their feet pretty loudly right now and stadium advocates will need a champion to carry the matter to completion. You have to wonder who will take on this task right now. The Wilfs aren't going to wait much longer for a solution and Dayton certainly doesn't want to be the guy who has the Purple leave on his watch.

Very early reading of tea leaves

A lot to process, of course. A few thoughts on what we know at this point:

• We are looking at another recount in the governor's race, but I don't see that Dayton's 10,000 vote lead is going to switch. If things stand, Tom Emmer is really going to be kicking himself for not going after Dayton a little harder -- Emmer decided to run a Marquess of Queensbury campaign and that looks to have bitten him in the butt. If Emmer had gone after Dayton's pecadilloes with half the ferocity that Dayton went after Emmer's, I think the race goes the other way.
• Chip Cravaack pulls it off and knocks Jim Oberstar out of Congress. Oberstar had been there for nearly 40 years. That's way too long and Oberstar's persona in this election was more "get off my lawn" than elder statesman. Cravaack was a very good candidate and I suspect he'll do a good job representing the 8th.
• Even though it looks like Dayton pulled it off, the other really big story of the night is that control of the legislature goes back to the Republicans. My greatest fear was a DFL governor and a DFL legislature, working together for Tom Dooher's wish fulfillment. Instead, we may have a recipe for a different sort of gridlock, in which narrow Republican majorities wear the green eyeshade and Dayton tries to goad the Republicans into spending money that doesn't exist. It could be very interesting, especially since my guess is that Dayton won't be able to hack the pressure of being governor any better than he handled being Senator.
• To that end, there's been a lot of speculation about who will be Dayton's chief of staff, because that individual will be the power behind the throne. Most observers have thought it would be Mike Hatch, but I wonder about that. Just a hunch on this -- don't rule out Matt Entenza. Dayton still owes Entenza big time for drawing enough votes away from Margaret Anderson Kelliher to deliver the primary to Dayton.
• Nationally, it was a very good night for Republicans but there were a few disappointments. I really think California is beyond saving -- if you have the fiscal problems that state faces and the voters still decide to return Jerry Brown to the governor's mansion, there's no way to reconcile it. Kevin Williamson at NRO makes the correct observation, to wit: This election means two things for California: 1. It is now more likely to end up needing a federal bailout, and 2. It is less likely to find Congress receptive to that idea.

Much more to say as learn more, of course.

Midnight Thoughts

Very brief -- gotta go to bed. Will find out what happened in the morning, but here are a few thoughts:

• At this hour, the governor's race has tightened from disheartening to very close, but I'm thinking that Dayton may win in a very close race -- there are still a lot of votes up on the Range left to count and I don't think they'll go Emmer's way. It's getting very interesting, though. If Dayton wins, we'll have a lot more to say about it tomorrow, but I would suggest that a Dayton governorship would set up a very interesting experiment, since the DFL would have effective control of the entire state government, while all the neighboring states would be under the control of the Republicans, including Wisconsin.
• Speaking of Wisconsin, two races make me very happy tonight -- seeing Ron Johnson knock Russ Feingold out of the Senate and, most of all, watching Reid Ribble knock out Steve Kagen in WI-8. Feingold was a poor Senator, but at least he was sincere in his beliefs. Kagen, on the other hand, is one of the more odious members of Congress. Johnson and Ribble are the sort of candidate we need -- guys who aren't career politicians but who bring necessary skill sets to Washington. We need a lot less Steve Kagens.
• Too bad that Harry Reid won, but it's going to be a Pyrrhic victory for him. He'll have a much smaller majority and he's not likely to get much smarter over the next two years.

More in the morning!

The die is cast

Whatever is going to happen today won't be affected by any amateur punditry I offer in this space, so I'd like to take a break from politics and talk sports. Three things caught my eye yesterday:

• Sad news from the basketball world as Maurice Lucas, who was one of the best players in the Al McGuire era at Marquette and who also had a distinguished professional career in both the ABA and NBA, died on Sunday after a long battle with cancer. Lucas had the reputation of being a tough guy and an enforcer, but he was a very generous and decent man and was well-respected by his peers. This column by Steve Kelley in the Seattle Times does a nice job of explaining why Maurice Lucas is someone to be missed.
• What more can you say about the Vikings? Suffice it to say I am amused. Brad Childress has perhaps the most boring persona of any coach in the National Football League, yet his team is pure Peyton Place these days. I understand that Randy Moss really needed to go after his bizarre media appearance on Sunday, but you really have to wonder -- what did the Vikings expect? My guess is this -- Moss, for all his pecadilloes, is the sort who doesn't suffer fools gladly. It would appear he sized up the situation and saw a lot of them in Winter Park and decided to force Chilly's hand.
• It's odd, but the World Series has almost been an afterthought for a lot of people this year. It's too bad, because the new champions, the San Francisco Giants, are a pretty nice story. They have a team full of crusty old veterans who were able to get it together for a playoff run. They also have some amazingly good pitching -- Tim Lincecum looks like a member of Mott the Hoople, but he's a fantastic pitcher. The Giants had never won a championship in all their years in San Francisco. It's hard to believe that the last time this franchise had won a championship was when Willie Mays was patrolling the Polo Grounds. So good for the Giants.

On the Eve of the Butt-Kicking

So, what are your predictions for how it's going to come out tomorrow? Here are my guesses:

Minnesota Governor: It's going to go late into the night. If Chip Cravaack's campaign is successful, and I think it will be, he'll drag Tom Emmer across the finish line. Barely. Emmer wins in a real close one, by 1.5. For all the good will the Dayton name has in this state, enough people are worried about him that he won't get there.

Minnesota Attorney General: Swanson wins, but not by more than 2-3. Barden hasn't received much attention, but he's done a very good job of laying out the issues.

Minnesota Sec. of State: Severson by 2. Although it's been quiet, there are a lot of people who've been waiting to vote against Mark Ritchie. They'll be heard from tomorrow.

Minnesota Auditor: Anderson by 5. Rebecca Otto was a fluke winner in a bad Republican year.

Congressional Races: As follows:

MN1: Walz by 2. Demmer ran a good campaign, but it won't quite happen.
MN2: Kline by 30. No contest.
MN3: Paulsen by 12. No contest.
MN4: McCollum by 11. In a sane district, Teresa Collett would win by 30. And without her protector Nancy Pelosi, McCollum is going to have a very difficult time in the next two years. Don't be surprised if she gets a credible primary challenger next time.
MN5: Ellison by 15. Ditto for Joel Demos. It amazes me that with all the ambitious DFL politicians who operate out of the Twin Cities, the two urban districts have such ridiculous incumbents.
MN6: Bachmann by 11. The best part is that Tarryl Clark spent millions for nothing.
MN7: Peterson by 8. Watch him closely -- Peterson might cross the aisle after getting a scare from Lee Byberg, who has run a pretty good campaign.
MN8: Cravaack by 3. And Tom Emmer is going to owe him big time.

Wisconsin Governor: Walker wins by 5. He's not the strongest candidate, but he's strong enough to beat Barrett.

Wisconsin Senate: Ron Johnson wins by 6. It's a tough year for Democrats in Wisconsin, but Ron Johnson would be a hell of a candidate in any year. Very impressive.

WI3: Kapanke by 1. Just a hunch on this one.
WI7: Duffy by 8. Strong campaign by a guy with a future.
WI8: Ribble by 7. And this one will be especially sweet. Steve Kagen is odious.

Overall number of House seats gained for the Republicans: 66
Overall number of Senate seats gained for the Republicans: 9. And again, watch for potential aisle-crossers -- the R's will approach Lieberman, but the ones to watch will be Jon Tester, Jim Webb and maybe even Kent Conrad. All see the writing on the wall.

Let's hear your predictions in the comments section.

More Real DFL of Genius

A few things worth mentioning today:

• If you haven't seen any of the videotape of Betty McCollum's debate against Teresa Collett, you really ought to go over to Mitch's place and watch what he's posted. McCollum has to read her talking points from a piece of paper. If I were a DFL pol living in the 4th CD and knew that this woman had the job, I'd be embarrassed as hell about it. There are dozens of DFL mayors, state reps and senators who live in the 4th -- really, this is the best you guys can do?
• King Banaian might be the single most impressive candidate running for the state House this year. He's a highly regarded economist and professor at St. Cloud State, who has been able to provide advice to a number of foreign governments. He's also of Armenian descent. The diversity lovers over at DFL central in St. Paul chose to portray the guy as the Other. Luke Hellier at MDE has the pix.
• Oddly, this stance from DFL central seems to contradict the views of my rep Kate Knuth, who has been very quiet in her re-election campaign this year. Kate seems to welcome diversity, even though she hasn't exactly thought it through, as Boots On's Force50 points out. Kate apparently wants some sort of guest worker program to make up for the demographic problems that her cherished DFL welfare state apparatus might entail. Here's a question for Kate: do you assume that the immigrants you hope to attract are going to be willing to just pay for your proposals? Or might they have other views on the matter?
• One more point on Kate Knuth's genius: Force50 does catch the funniest part of what Knuth believes. Quoting our young genius representative: "Societies may also choose to abandon GDP as the sole measure of economic success, instead focusing on measures of public or environmental health, education, equity, or happiness." Uh, Kate? You can't buy a loaf of bread with a better measure of environmental health. The reason we look at GDP is because it relates to economic activity. I don't doubt that your regulatory activity would go up substantially if you were given a chance, but it won't help your constituents. Voting for Russ Bertsch, who actually lives in the real world, would help a lot, though.

Pulling a Train

From the Stewart/Colbert rally:

The ‘pro-sanity” part of the rally (lead by Jon Stewart) introduced Mr. Islam who sang “Peace Train,” only to be interrupted by Stephen Colbert (the ‘pro-fear’ part of the rally) who proceeded to introduce a surprisingly lucid Mr. Osbourne who sang “Crazy Train.” The battle was effectively a draw, only to be resolved by a surprise appearance by the O’Jays who sang “Love Train.” And the world began to heal.

Somewhere, Blackfoot is sitting by the phone, waiting for the call that never came.

Ah, diversity!

Here's the crowd at the Stewart/Colbert rally today in Washington. Since we've long seen Tea Parties denigrated as "overwhelmingly white," it seems appropriate to get a look at real diversity.

Thank God I'm Not Like Them

So the sane people are going to be on the Capitol Mall today, led by Daily Show host Jon Stewart. Tunku Varadarajan lays it out quite succintly:

For all their iconoclasm, Stewart and his sidekick-in-sanity, Stephen Colbert, calculate to honor mainstream liberal pieties. Daily, Stewart shores up caustically the conventional wisdom of a moderate-left orthodoxy, scolding what are perceived to be the extremes, almost invariably of the right, in a fiesta of self-congratulation.

That phrase, "a fiesta of self-congratulation," is spot-on. I'm not a regular Stewart watcher, but I've seen his act enough times to know how he operates. He's a professional smart-ass and he's generally pretty good at it. And America needs its jesters.

You can't build a political movement out of mockery, though. I remain convinced that much of what drives opposition to Obama and the Democrats is how they just ooze condescension. It doesn't much anger me, because I've spent much of my life dealing with people who look down their noses at the "great unwashed," as Katie Couric put it recently. Couric's defenders have insisted that she didn't mean the term as a put-down. And I believe these defenders, because they honestly don't see it that way. They don't understand why treating the Tea Party as a matter of cultural anthropology might rankle.

The Gospel of Luke features what Jesus said about the matter:

9To some who were confident of their own righteousness and looked down on everybody else, Jesus told this parable: 10"Two men went up to the temple to pray, one a Pharisee and the other a tax collector. 11The Pharisee stood up and prayed about[a] himself: 'God, I thank you that I am not like other men—robbers, evildoers, adulterers—or even like this tax collector. 12I fast twice a week and give a tenth of all I get.'

13"But the tax collector stood at a distance. He would not even look up to heaven, but beat his breast and said, 'God, have mercy on me, a sinner.'

14"I tell you that this man, rather than the other, went home justified before God. For everyone who exalts himself will be humbled, and he who humbles himself will be exalted."

There are a lot of Pharisees in Stewart's audience, who thank God they are not like NASCAR fans or bitter clingers or Glenn Beck fans. And there's never been any doubt that Stewart encourages his audience to think in those terms. The whole purpose of today's events in Washington is to mock the backward ways of those who gathered in Washington a few months back.

It cuts both ways -- conservatives sneer at liberals, too. And both sides imagine that the Other Guys are the Pharisees. I'll cop to it, since I do that pretty much every day on this blog. It's been a lifelong challenge for me, because I like to sneer and it's very easy to be cynical about human nature. But you aren't likely to build much of anything that lasts while you swim in currents of bile.

It's the paradox of politics -- we need politicians who are humble enough to understand their own limitations, but it takes a little bit of hubris to even contemplate running for office. The test for those Tea Party-endorsed candidates that break through on Tuesday is this -- will you remember why you were sent to office?

A lot of Democratic Party officeholders are likely to lose their jobs on Tuesday. As they ponder why they are out of a job, I would hope that they pay more attention to the Gospel of Luke than the Daily Show.