More Tea Leaves

There's still a lot to think about in this election cycle, but I've come to a few tentative conclusions about what may lie ahead. First, three thoughts about the man who will likely be the next governor, Mark Dayton.

• Mark Dayton wanted to be governor in the worst way and he's getting his wish. By presumably winning election while his party simultaneously managed to lose control of both houses of the Minnesota legislature, he now finds himself in a tough place. The lege has the power of the purse and they will start cutting things that Dayton and the DFL holds dear. They'll have a rationale to do so, of course -- there's that $6 billion budget deficit that has to be solved, after all. Unless I miss my guess, the Republicans will use some of the same sorts of dilatory tactics that the DFL has used in previous sessions and present a budget to the governor at the last possible minute, putting Dayton in a position where he'll either have eat the cuts that the legislature provides, or he'll end up vetoing the bill and shutting down the government. He can call the legislature back into special session, but the GOP leadership won't have any incentive to save his bacon. And because Dayton went around the DFL apparat to get the nomination, he'll have to watch his back.
• Worse, Dayton has no place to hide. He, like Barack Obama, was previously a senator and I don't believe that being a senator provides the proper skill set for what is very much an executive job. Even though many senators tend to be voluble strutting peacocks a la Chuck Schumer, Dayton isn't really like that. He spent a lot of his time in Washington in the shadows. He would sometimes bluster a bit in a committee hearing, but by and large he was a backbencher and had little or no influence on events during his term. He's going to have to be at the center of things now and I doubt that he's going to do well at it. You can package a candidate and vilify an opponent, especially with a compliant media, and you might be able to make the sale to a portion of the electorate. Can he make sale as governor? I'm skeptical.
• One of the more interesting questions that will come up in the next year or two is the matter of a new Vikings stadium. There's going to be little support for public funding and the DFL, long beholden to casino money from Native American tribes, is unlikely to look at alieanting a key funding source by championing a racino. The Vikings are tapping their feet pretty loudly right now and stadium advocates will need a champion to carry the matter to completion. You have to wonder who will take on this task right now. The Wilfs aren't going to wait much longer for a solution and Dayton certainly doesn't want to be the guy who has the Purple leave on his watch.