Having had some time to cogitate on last night's debate, here is (to borrow a construction from Peter King of Sports Illustrated) what I think I think:
Body language and non-verbal communication is going to matter on this one. Joe Biden went out with a plan to be dominant and he certainly was on the offensive all evening. Was he offensive? You could make that argument. Here is an image that showed up on my Facebook feed this morning:
9:48: That debate was so annoying! Some of the CNN commentators are talking about how Biden did what he came to do, to fire up the Democrats. "This was not for the independents," says Van Jones. Okay, well, but independents were watching, and Biden was horribly rude. He created this disturbing atmosphere of anxiety.
Emphasis is hers. Anxiety is in the eye of the beholder. I found it a little, well, theatrical.
As for Ryan, his test was different. Could you see him as President? After last night, I'd say yes. Biden tried to work in a Lloyd Bentsen-style Jack Kennedy shot during the debate, but it didn't really work because it came as crosstalk during one of Biden's many interruptions of Ryan.
Does it move the needle? Not as much as the first debate did. Romney has a chance to close the deal in the next two debates. We'll see. Meanwhile, here's a poll:
We're in position and we're ready to begin in about 13 minutes. Of course, we need an intro song, so here you go:
7:50 Hey Ladies! In ten minutes we enter Paul's Boutique.
I'm going to try to do a few things differently this time. Last debate I pretty much tried to transcribe the whole thing, which was (a) too much work and (b) somewhat incoherent. So this time I'm going to be a little less verbose and more observational. Or something.
7:52 Benster is sitting on the ol' couch next to me and he might have a comment or two to make as things progress. So this will be a live blog with HYYYYYYYYPPPPPPPE! We do have a problem with making picks for tomorrow, since he'll be at the Boy Scout Camporee this weekend, so we may have to do a little tweaking on the picks.
7:54 We've switched from the Baltimore Orioles/New York Yankees game to the debate now. I'm disappointed that the Reds lost this afternoon. Nothing against the Giants, but I was pulling for a Reds/Orioles World Series and the obligatory Brooks Robinson flashbacks. Guess that will have to wait.
8:00 Showtime! Martha Raddatz is on. She lays out her plan. We'll see if the candidates nuke her plans in the same way that Romney and Obama did. Biden comes out in the blue tie and Ryan brings the red power tie. Seems to be a trend.
8:03 Libya right out of the box. Raddatz asks if it was an intelligence failure. Biden promises to bring the perps to justice. Mistakes were made but won't be made again. Biden now switches from the topic to Romney. Lays out the contrast as Biden sees it. Now we're back to bin Laden. Of course they'd prefer to talk about bin Laden.
8:05 Ryan -- we mourn the loss. They sent the U.N. Ambassador out to talk about YouTube. If we're elected, we're going to call it what it is. Shouldn't we have a Marine attachment in Benghazi. First they blamed YouTube video, now they blame Romney/Ryan. Ryan brings up Beau Biden. We are projecting weakness abroad. Unraveling of Obama foreign policy.
8:07 Raddatz asks Ryan about Romney's statement. Ryan says "it's never to early to speak out about our values." We should always stand up for our values. And don't cut defense. Biden says not a single thing is accurate.
8:08 Biden claims Ryan cut budget. Hard to do when there's no budget? Biden doesn't understand what Ryan is talking about in re weakness.
8:09 Raddatz asks Biden what he was first told. Biden says they were told by intelligence that there were protests in Benghazi. I'll bet we'll hear from those intelligence agencies.
8:10 Biden doubles down. He's filibustering.
8:11 Raddatz asks if we should apologize for burning Korans? Ryan -- we should not apologizing for our values. Requests for security in Benghazi were denied. We did not give our ambassador a Marine detachment. It's unraveling before our eyes.
8:12 Raddatz cuts Ryan off. On to Iran. She's not going to get Lehrered.
8:13 Ryan -- we cannot allow Iran to have a bomb. Ryan lays out the last four years. Administration blocked Congress every step of the way. Sanctions came in spite of Obama administration. Iran is brazen. You have to have the Ayatollahs change their minds. Won't happen, Ryan says, because Obama administration is not credible.
8:15 Biden -- "Incredible." Biden asks if Ryan wants war? Biden -- we could deal with Iran if we want to. Biden says Iran is a "good way away" from having a bomb. Accusing Ryan of bluster. What more can the president do? Period.
8:17 Ryan -- what do the Ayatollahs see? They are spinning centrifuges. They see us distancing ourselves from Israel. When options are on the table.
8:18 Raddatz cuts off Ryan again. How can you solve this in two months? Ryan starts to answer, Raddatz cuts him off. Twice. Now Biden starts talking. Obama has talked to "Bibi" many times. This is a bunch of stuff. "This is a bunch of stuff." Biden says Iran doesn't have a weapon.
1000 Words
8:20 Ryan -- sanctions are in place despite -- Raddatz cuts Ryan off again. Now Biden keeps talking. This is amusing. Ryan is waiting his turn, yet again.
8:21 Raddatz asks about Gates statement -- the ayatollahs see equivocation. Silent for nine days on Green Revolution. When they see our actions -- Raddatz cuts him off again. What about WAAAAR?
8:22 Biden is dominating time. Don't know if he's dominating the discussion, though.
8:23 Raddatz now talks about jobs. Mentions that Obama promised 6% unemployment. Can either side get 6% unemployment. Biden runs through the Obama greatest hits. Says 47% of the people are unwilling to take responsibility for their own lives. He's good and outraged now. Biden's had it up to here -- now he throws out Grover Norquist, they should level the playing field. He's getting his talking points in. Doubles down on $500 billion tax cut thing, too.
8:25 Ryan -- Scranton has 10% unemployment now. Biden tries to cut Ryan off again. Ryan is being very polite. We're headed in the wrong direction. This is not what a real recovery looks like. They keep misquoting Romney about Detroit. Romney paid for college for a family there. Ryan gives Biden a shot about "knowing how sometimes the words don't come out the right way."
8:28 Biden milks his own personal story. Romney had no commitment to Detroit. I've never met two guys who are more down on America. If they'd get out of the way and let us do what we want, it would get better. Just get out of the way. Show me something. Now the recession is Ryan's fault.
8:31 Ryan -- let's not forget that they full control in 2009 and could do what they wanted. Passed the stimulus. He starts to explain and Raddatz cuts him off again. Vice President was in charge of stimulus. Raddatz cuts him off again and lets Biden start filibuster. Biden gets a lot of talking time.
8:33 Ryan "was it a good idea to build green things" and now Biden cuts him off again. Ryan asks about the 5 million green jobs and Raddatz cuts him off again.
8:34 Ryan says Medicare needs to change. Talks about SSI helping him and his mother. Needs to reform things for younger people. Biden is laughing. Ryan explains what IPAB is. "They haven't put a credible solution on the table." Biden is still laughing. Not sure how this will play.
8:36 Biden "I've heard that death panel debate from Sarah Palin." AMA and AARP supported it. Well, not anymore, but we'll leave that aside. Who do you believe? The AMA? Me? I expect we'll hear from the AMA on this one tomorrow. And by the way, we won't privatize Social Security.
8:38 Ryan -- here's the problem, they got caught. Their own actuary explained that 1 out of 6 will go out of business. Biden keeps interrupting and Ryan tries to stop him. So now Raddatz cuts Ryan off. Biden keeps cutting Ryan off. Ryan keeps trying to explain things and Biden keeps talking over him.
8:40 Ryan now starts cutting Biden off. The strategy seems to be working.
8:41 Raddatz tries to bail Biden out. Now we're back to 1983 and Tip O'Neill and the Gipper. We will not be part of the voucher system.
8:42 Ryan starts to explain, Raddatz cuts him off again. Biden continues to cut him off. Wow. Amazing.
8:43 Hard for Ryan to explain his position when he is not allowed to. So it goes.
8:44 Biden -- who would you trust?
8:44 Ryan -- we are not going to jeopardize -- cut off again. And Raddatz wants to move on, of course.
8:45 Raddatz -- who will pay more in taxes. Biden says rich will pay a little more. Says Ryan is holding tax cut hostage to the super wealthy. This is unconscionable. The last people who need help are 120,000 families.
8:47 Ryan -- the entire premise is to create jobs. 28% of income is enough. Obama wants to take up to 44%. If you taxed everyone over 250,000 at 100%, it would pay for government for 98 days. Lots of numbers. Canadians have dropped tax rate to 15%. Tax increase will cost 710,000 jobs.
8:49 Raddatz -- do you have the specifics? Ryan -- O'Neill and Reagan worked out of a framework. Says Romney will do the same. Biden tries to cut him off again. Raddatz says no specifics.
8:50 Biden says small businesses are hedge funds. Carried interest and captial gains. Says they'll cut the mortgage deduction.
8:51 Ryan -- he's wrong about that. Biden keeps cutting him of. Biden is cutting Ryan off at every turn. Biden keeps cutting Ryan off. But you know that.
8:53 Millionaries don't need the money.
8:54 Ryan keeps trying, but Biden shouts him down. So Raddatz turns to defense.
8:55 Ryan tries to explain, but now Biden and Raddatz both cut him off.
8:56 Biden quotes Joint Chiefs. Ryan tries to respond. Raddatz won't let him. On to Afghanistan.
8:57 Raddatz -- why not leave now? Ryan -- we don't want to lose the gains we've had. Talks about what has been accomplished. We don't want to lose the gains. We'd support Petraeus and Mullen. Not so sure about negotiating with the Taliban.
8:58 Biden has been to Afghanistan 20 times. We've decimated al Qaida and we've got bin Laden. We will be out of there in 2014. It does not depend for us. The Afghans need to take care of themselves. We are leaving in 2014. Period. Biden likes the word "Period."
9:00 Ryan -- we don't to stay. He wants his buddy from Janesville home. We don't want to extend beyond 2014, that's the point we're making. What we are witnessing is the unraveling of the Obama foreign policy.
9:01 Ryan we don't want to broadcast a departure date to our enemies. What we don't want to embolden our enemies.
9:03 Biden -- unless you set a deadline, they won't step up. That's the only way it works.
9:03 Raddatz -- military generals were concerned that the troops were pulled too soon. Raddatz actually challenges Biden on this -- generals follow orders.
9:05 Ryan explains that in the winter, fighting goes down because the Taliban can't get in to fight. We pulled troops out while fighting season is still on. Less troops to do more work.
9:06 Biden says Ryan is conflating issues. Ryan says the season is still going.
On to Syria.
9:07 Biden says Syria is different than Libya. We are working hand in glove with everyone in the region to identify who should get helps when Assad goes, and he will go. What more could they do besides boots on the ground? Are they proposing putting troops on the ground?
9:09 Ryan -- nobody is proposing sending troops to Syria. What we'd do differently? We wouldn't let Russia dictate our policy. Assad is still there. More foreign fighters are coming in. We could have identified things earlier if we'd gotten started. But we let Kofi Annan try to run the show.
9:11 Biden filibusters.
9:12 Raddatz -- what happens if Assad hangs on? Ryan continues to say we should not have waited. Russia is still.
9:13 Ryan -- we intervene with boots on the ground only in our national interest. We might help with humanitarian aid, but boots are a different matter.
9:14 Raddatz -- two Catholics. How does it affect your view on abortion?
9:15 Ryan -- my faith informs my views. I base my views on abortion on reason and science. We saw the baby's heartbeat. I'm pro-life because of this. He goes on religious liberties. Now abortion is taxpayer funded. The Vice President wouldn't second-guess China's one child policy.
9:17 Biden talks about Catholic social doctrine. With regard to abortion, Biden accepts the personal judgment of the Church, but refuses to "impose" it on others. No assault on religious liberty.
9:19 Ryan tries to get back to religious liberty issue. Raddatz won't let him.
9:20 Biden says Roe v. Wade is in the balance. Watch Bork.
9:21 Closing question. Raddatz says a soldier is dismayed by campaign. Are you embarrassed by the tone?
9:22 Biden -- we only have one sacred obligation as a government -- to keep soldiers safe. Soldier shouldn't be part of the 47%. That's a world-class demagogue moment. Biden -- does Romney have the commitment to the middle class. Slipshod comments by Romney.
9:24 Ryan -- I'd thank him for service. We won't cut off resources. President Obama is demonizing people because he doesn't have a record to run on. Runs down broken promises, or putative broken promises. A debt crisis is coming. Leaders run to problems to fix problems. Obama has done nothing about it. The president doesn't have a plan, he has a speech. CBO can't estimate speeches. We get speeches, not leadership. Romney is uniquely qualified.
9:26 Biden -- the budgets Ryan proposes will "eviscerate" programs that benefit people.
9:27 Ryan -- plenty of fine people could lead this country -- but we need someone to take action. On to the laundry list.
9:28 Biden -- my record stands for itself. My whole life has been dedicated to leveling the playing field for the middle class.
Closing statement for Biden. We inherited a God-awful mess. We acted. Again says Romney hates on 47%. All people want is an even shot.
Closing statement for Ryan. We face a big choice. What type of country are we going to be. Obama had his chance and he made his choices. It's not working. 23 million Americans are struggling for work. 15 million Americans are out of work. You deserve better. We want to earn your support. Mitt Romney is uniquely qualified to get things done. Mitt Romney will not duck the tough issues or blame others. We will reapply the founding principles.
And we're done. On to the spin.
My first take -- Biden was exceptionally aggressive. He talked over Ryan a lot. He got slightly more time. Raddatz interrupted Ryan rather a lot. But so it goes. Biden is, for better or worse, a happy warrior.
Ryan was earnest, as always. He did okay, I thought, when he could get a word in edgewise. I don't know if people will find his manner engaging or not.
Benster has a thought:
I think Ryan won. Ryan did a great job explaining his points in a coherent manner. Biden, on the other hand, showed disrespect by smirking and smiling every couple of minutes and Martha Raddatz was doing everything she could to help Biden out. If I'm the Obama campaign, I should be very concerned. Ben out!
I'll watch the spin later. I think it's going to depend on whether or not people thought Biden was a jerk or not.
I am planning to live-blog the Veep debate tonight. Don't have a lot to say this morning, though, so let's have an open thread. One rule -- your comment must include a song lyric or reference from any one of the following bands:
Blue Oyster Cult
Earth, Wind & Fire
The (Young) Rascals
Tom Petty & the Heartbreakers
The Replacements
Or not, since it's an open thread. But come on, it's more fun with a degree of difficulty, right?
Today we learned some more about what happened in Benghazi on September 11. More importantly, we learned that the State Department knew a lot more about what happened than they seemed to let on.
Charlene Lamb testified today in front of Darrell Issa's committee. Lamb is in charge of security at 275 diplomatic facilities. Her testimony is here (note: PDF). You can read it yourself, and you should, but I call your attention to something very significant. In her testimony, Lamb states the following (emphasis mine):
That brings me to the events of September 11 itself. The account I am about to present is based on first-hand reports from several security personnel present that night. Additionally, I was in our Diplomatic Security Command Center monitoring multiple open lines with our agents for much of the attack.
Think about this -- State was in contact with the consulate throughout the attack and yet, five days later, Susan Rice went out and told people something totally different than what happened. It would have been very easy, and very justifiable, to say that State needed to confirm details from other intelligence reports. It would have been irritating, but understandable, to say that the investigation is ongoing and it's premature to say what happened. That's not what happened, however. What happened is that Susan Rice said this:
But putting together the best information that we have available to us today our current assessment is that what happened in Benghazi was in fact initially a spontaneous reaction to what had just transpired hours before in Cairo, almost a copycat of-- of the demonstrations against our facility in Cairo, which were prompted, of course, by the video. What we think then transpired in Benghazi is that opportunistic extremist elements came to the consulate as this was unfolding.
Perhaps Charlene Lamb never sent her memo. Perhaps State thought that the "loud voices outside the walls" that the diplomats heard at 9:40 p.m. that evening were part of a spontaneous reaction. But it doesn't make a lot of sense, especially when Lamb's testimony states that "[d]ozens of attackers then launched a full-scale assault that was unprecedented in its size and intensity."
I apologize in advance if pointing this out is somehow an unseemly example of making political hay, but I think we really deserve an answer as to why Rice went out on the Sunday chat shows and talked about YouTube videos.
WASHINGTON (AP) -- The State Department says it never concluded that an attack that killed the U.S. ambassador to Libya was simply a protest gone awry, a statement that places the Obama administration's own foreign policy arm in sync with Republicans.
That extraordinary message, appearing to question the administration's initial description of the attack on the U.S. Consulate in Benghazi, came in a department briefing Tuesday - a day before a hearing on diplomatic security in Libya was to be held by the Republican-led House Oversight and Government Reform Committee.
Okay, so if State "never concluded that an attack that killed the U.S. ambassador to Libya was simply a protest gone awry," why the hell was Susan Rice saying this?
GREGORY: The images as you well know are jarring to Americans watching all of this play out this week, and we’ll share the map of all of this turmoil with our viewers to show the scale of it across not just the Arab world, but the entire Islamic world and flashpoints as well. In Egypt, of course, the protests outside the U.S. embassy there that Egyptian officials were slow to put down. This weekend in Pakistan, protests as well there. More anti-American rage. Also protests against the drone strikes. In Yemen, you also had arrests and some deaths outside of our U.S. embassy there. How much longer can Americans expect to see these troubling images and these protests go forward?
MS. RICE: Well, David, we can’t predict with any certainty. But let’s remember what has transpired over the last several days. This is a response to a hateful and offensive video that was widely disseminated throughout the Arab and Muslim world. Obviously, our view is that there is absolutely no excuse for violence and that-- what has happened is condemnable, but this is a-- a spontaneous reaction to a video, and it’s not dissimilar but, perhaps, on a slightly larger scale than what we have seen in the past with The Satanic Verses with the cartoons of the Prophet Muhammad. Now, the United States has made very clear and the president has been very plain that our top priority is the protection of American personnel in our facilities and bringing to justice those who…
GREGORY: All right.
MS. RICE: …attacked our facility in Benghazi.
GREGORY: Well, let’s talk-- talk about-- well, you talked about this as spontaneous. Can you say definitively that the attacks on-- on our consulate in Libya that killed ambassador Stevens and others there security personnel, that was spontaneous, was it a planned attack? Was there a terrorist element to it?
MS. RICE: Well, let us-- let me tell you the-- the best information we have at present. First of all, there’s an FBI investigation which is ongoing. And we look to that investigation to give us the definitive word as to what transpired. But putting together the best information that we have available to us today our current assessment is that what happened in Benghazi was in fact initially a spontaneous reaction to what had just transpired hours before in Cairo, almost a copycat of-- of the demonstrations against our facility in Cairo, which were prompted, of course, by the video. What we think then transpired in Benghazi is that opportunistic extremist elements came to the consulate as this was unfolding. They came with heavy weapons which unfortunately are readily available in post revolutionary Libya. And it escalated into a much more violent episode. Obviously, that’s-- that’s our best judgment now. We’ll await the results of the investigation. And the president has been very clear--we’ll work with the Libyan authorities to bring those responsible to justice.
Emphasis mine. I further understand that Oceania has always been at war with Eastasia.
There are more than a few implications here. First of all, I'd love to know why Susan Rice went on television to say these things, which were absurd? If you don't think they were absurd, consider this report from McClatchy, which was filed three days before Susan Rice made her appearance on Meet the Press:
BENGHAZI, Libya — A Libyan security guard who said he was at the U.S. consulate here when it was attacked Tuesday night has provided new evidence that the assault on the compound that left four Americans dead, including the U.S. ambassador to Libya, was a planned attack by armed Islamists and not the outgrowth of a protest over an online video that mocks Islam and its founder, the Prophet Muhammad.
The guard, interviewed Thursday in the hospital where he is being treated for five shrapnel wounds in one leg and two bullet wounds in the other, said that the consulate area was quiet – “there wasn’t a single ant outside,” he said – until about 9:35 p.m., when as many as 125 armed men descended on the compound from all directions.
The men lobbed grenades into the compound, wounding the guard and knocking him to the ground, then stormed through the facility’s main gate, shouting “God is great” and moving to one of the many villas that make up the consulate compound. He said there had been no warning that an attack was imminent.
“Wouldn’t you expect if there were protesters outside that the Americans would leave?” the guard said.
It's a fair question. I'm sure Darrell Issa will have a few other questions.
So riddle me this -- who the hell decided it would be a good idea to try to blame a terrorist attack on a video that had been out on YouTube for months? And now that a month has passed, why are we only now getting this story?
I will be very curious to see if Susan Rice will fall on her sword. I'll also be curious to see how, or if, Hillary Clinton explains what happened in the sequence of events that brought Susan Rice to the Sunday talk shows.
They never existed. ABC News, hardly part of the Vast Right-Wing Conspiracy, reports:
Everything we heard that first week from the Obama administration was, well, crap. I think a whole lot of people are going to want to know why. Starting with Darrell Issa, I'd imagine.
Don't cost nothin', especially since it's an anonymous internet poll. If you want to take ownership of your vote, feel free to do so in the comments section:
If the government were to, somehow make full-time employees more expensive, perhaps through some oh-so-compassionate regulatory move known as the "Affordable Care Act," what might we expect employers to do when it comes to hiring and scheduling? Do they say, "aww, shucks," I guess we'll just have shoulder yet-higher costs in this really crappy economy? Or do they turn as many employees as possible into part-timers?
In an experiment apparently aimed at keeping down the cost of health-care reform, Orlando-based Darden Restaurants has stopped offering full-time schedules to many hourly workers in at least a few Olive Gardens, Red Lobsters and LongHorn Steakhouses.
This isn't an experiment. It's the future. More at the first link.
I can't think of any successful politician who tells the unvarnished truth 100% of the time. Which is why the Obama campaign is going to have a tough time selling the "Rmoney is teh liar!" theme very well. For a reminder of why it's difficult for the Most Powerful Man in the World to speak Truth to Power, we present Michael Ramirez:
Mitt Romney no longer trails Barack Obama in the Pew Research Center’s presidential election polling. By about three-to-one, voters say Romney did a better job than Obama in the Oct. 3 debate, and the Republican is now better regarded on most personal dimensions and on most issues than he was in September. Romney is seen as the candidate who has new ideas and is viewed as better able than Obama to improve the jobs situation and reduce the budget deficit.
Maybe. But just as I've been cautioning against taking D +9 polls too seriously, I'd also caution against taking a R +5 poll too seriously, either. This thing remains close.
Meanwhile, the narrative takes shape, as Andrew Sullivan emotes mightily:
The Pew poll is devastating, just devastating. Before the debate, Obama had a 51 - 43 lead; now, Romney has a 49 - 45 lead. That's a simply unprecedented reversal for a candidate in October. Before Obama had leads on every policy issue and personal characteristic; now Romney leads in almost all of them. Obama's performance gave Romney a 12 point swing! I repeat: a 12 point swing.
Romney's favorables are above Obama's now. Yes, you read that right. Romney's favorables are higher than Obama's right now. That gender gap that was Obama's firewall? Over in one night:
Do you sense the despair? There's more:
Or maybe, just maybe, Obama can regain our trust and confidence somehow in the next debate. Maybe he can begin to give us a positive vision of what he wants to do (amazing that it's October and some of us are still trying to help him, but he cannot). Maybe if Romney can turn this whole campaign around in 90 minutes, Obama can now do the same. But I doubt it. A sitting president does not recover from being obliterated on substance, style and likability in the first debate and get much of a chance to come back. He has, at a critical moment, deeply depressed his base and his supporters and independents are flocking to Romney in droves.
Oh, come on, Andrew. It's not as bad as all that. In fact, when Obama does better in the next debate, and he will, all will be well again. In fact, look for Obama to be the Comeback Kid, 2012 Edition!
Part of the problem with maintaining a narrative is that you need to have people keep believing it, even when the narrative runs up against the rocks.
Republicans are often portrayed as stupid in media, so much so that many disgruntled conservatives internalize the message and call Republicans the "stupid party." The exemplar of stupidity in the cartoon world is Elmer Fudd:
So it was strange for David Axelrod to mention a different Elmer in yesterday's talk show festival. Ann Althouse noticed:
On "Face the Nation," talking about last week's debate. Bob Schieffer was all: "What did you just say?" And Axelrod repeats: "Gantry-esque." Schieffer seeks to clarify: "Elmer as in Elmer Gantry the fictional evangelist?" And Axelrod goes: "Elmer Gantry. Yes. Yes. Yes. Thanks for clarifying."
What madness! What dream world is Axelrod living in? "Elmer Gantry" is a novel from 1927. It was made into a film in 1960 — half a century ago. I'm 61 years old and the movie pre-dates my movie-going days. Normal Americans are supposed to be conversant with this character?
Perhaps they are, but I'd personally find it a little surprising. I've not seen the movie, but it starred Burt Lancaster, who was a handsome devil back in the day:
Can a Republican be Elmer Fudd and Elmer Gantry simultaneously? That would be a pretty good trick, even for someone as fiendishly clever/stupid as Mitt Romney.
Mort Zuckerman voted for Barack Obama in 2008 and has been walking it back ever since. He has a longish piece at U.S. News this week that lays out some reasons Obama may be in trouble after all:
If you are on disability, you are not considered to be in the labor force either. As of April, we have added 5.5 million people to the disability rolls since the beginning of 2009, several million above the previous trend. There are now roughly 9 million people on disability. In 1992, there was one person on disability for every 35 workers. It is now about one for every 16 workers. It is hard to believe that so many people have become disabled; disability has literally become another fallback position for people out of work. If disability had stayed at the pre-recession growth rate, unemployment would be at least one percentage point higher, leading to a true unemployment rate much closer to 10 percent and perhaps significantly more.
Underemployment is still in the range of 16 percent, and that does not count people who have a job for which they are overqualified or who are making much less money because they are aren't working in their chosen field. John Williams at Shadowstats, who uses the U.S. government methodology from 30 years ago, tells us that the U-6 unemployment rate is around 23 percent. The difference is in how you create the model. The feds keep changing the rules, and it should be no surprise that with each new rule the number of people officially counted as unemployed drops. If you can't find a job, whether officially employed or not, you are still out of work. Far too many workers have been idle for extended periods, and it is crucial to get them back into the labor force before their skills atrophy and their earning power shrinks permanently.
And there's more:
Every president in modern times who has inherited a recession from his predecessor boasts a better track record. In fact, of the past 10 recessions, this has been the weakest recovery ever. And in the second quarter, GDP growth was down to 1.3 percent. And a slew of major hard data since the beginning of September have had to be revised sharply lower. Non-farm payrolls, retail sales, industrial production, and housing starts all received downward bumps, setting a stage for an even more sluggish performance in the third quarter. Durable goods orders in August served up another huge downward slide.
Indeed, the 1.3 reading on the second quarter GDP marks the weakest growth in the 12th quarter after a recession. By this time, at the same stage of a recovery, real GDP is expanding on average at 4.7 percent. That is after four years of $1 trillion plus fiscal deficits. Orders plunged to 13.2 percent sequentially during August, far exceeding the market expectations for a 5 percent decline.
There's a lot more at the link. It's worth your time.
That's at a Shell station in Fresno. It's worse in other places. The reasons for this? I can think of three:
Refinery issues
California's insane environmental laws, which make it impossible to get gas into the state from neighboring states
Quantitative easing, which means that even after this spike ends, prices won't get much better any time soon
For what it's worth, I just paid $3.64/gallon at the SA at the corner of Old Highway 8 and County Road D in Roseville. Roseville, Minnesota, that is. Current price in Roseville, California, which is near Sacramento if I remember correctly? About the same as Fresno.
I never thought I'd feel lucky to pay $3.64/gallon for gasoline. But right now, I do.
For reference, here are the prices in some of the areas where regular readers of this feature live (all prices available from GasBuddy.com)
In the Inland Empire, it's about $4.63
In south suburban Chicago, it's about $4.09
In Seattle, it's about $3.89
In suburban Portland, it's about $4.03
In my hometown of Appleton, it's about $3.89
In Madison, it's about $3.75
If I missed your location, let me know. This is a story that hasn't been getting much attention, but it may yet.
Sorry, people -- I know that we're kinda late but I'm still cranky about last night. The mighty Irondale Knights lost their game at Spring Lake Park last night and I was there, freezing my butt off for the whole thing while the Geritol Fan was busy partying in South Minneapolis in a heated apartment with a college pal.
South Minneapolis is lovely this time of year. Better than Spring Lake Park High School when it's 40 degrees out.
So I found out. But that's okay, because I'm here now to bring the heat. And the HYYYYYYPPPPPPE! Watch me work!
Illinois Fighting Illini (+14) vs. Beloved Wisconsin Badgers. Well, the Badgers played well last week at Nebraska, but they ran out of gas. Illinois has been just, well, turrible, as Charles Barkley would say. They lost 52-24 to Louisiana Tech. And I believe they also lost to Spring Lake Park High School, but I haven't been able to confirm that. The question for the Badgers is this -- can they spring Montee Ball for a long one? It hasn't happened all season, but it's bound to happen. The Badgers are getting their act together and Illinois is not. Grateful Red 42, Orange Crush 31. I checked the Google and have verified that the Illini did not lose to Spring Lake Park, although they were dispatched in a scrimmage game by Hoopeston/East Lynn High School, in Illinois, who are known as the Cornjerkers. And I think the Badgers are going to jerk around the Illini pretty good today. Badgers 35, Illini 7. Miami Hurricanes (+14) vs. Notre Dame Golden Domers, in Chicago. The Gophers are on bye this week, so we turn our attention to NBC's favorite team, Notre Dame. We don't talk about the Irish much around here, because (a) they haven't been relevant since before I was born, and (b) Geritol Fan hates them. But here's a chance to mention them. The Irish are getting better again; they are undefeated and dispatched every Big Ten team they faced, including playing very well against Michigan. So are the Irish for real? I say yes. Irish 34, Hurricanes 17. It's true -- I don't like Notre Dame much. Catholic kids, especially those who attend Catholic high schools in the Midwest, get a steady stream of Notre Dame propaganda throughout their school years and kids either decide to buy the hype or not. I didn't. But enough psychodrama. Will the Irish win today? Yes, because Miami isn't very good these days. But it will get tougher for the Irish later on. ND 28, Miami 10. Tennessee Tuxedos (+5 1/2) vs. Minnesota Vikings. So while we were worrying about other things, the Vikings somehow got to 3-1. They went to Detroit last week and ran the Lions out of their own building. Couple that with an impressive victory over the 49ers the week before, and all of a sudden the Vikings are relevant and media darlings, to boot. So should you believe the HYYYYYYYPPPPPPPPE? I say no. Tuxedos 24, Vikings 21. For those who don't remember who Tennessee Tuxedo is, I'll present the following tutorial:
Nothing quite like a penguin who sounds like Maxwell Smart. Would you believe the Titans can win in Minnesota? Maybe, but I think Matt Hasselbeck won't enjoy the company of Jared Allen very much. Vikes will come back to earth eventually, but not this week. Vikings 24, Titans 16. Glorious Green Bay Packers (-7) vs. Indianapolis Lucks. Well, last week was a very scary game. How scary? Very scary. But the Packers survived the efforts of Drew Brees and Jeff Triplette to win a game they had to have. And now they get Indy and their first look at Andrew Luck, Wonder Quarterback! I wouldn't sleep on the Colts because they're a sneaky team, but the Packers should have no trouble this week. Packers 77, Colts 0. No, young fella -- the Packers are playing the Colts, not the Illini. I think the Packers will win, but Indy will make them sweat a little. Packers 24, Colts 14.
Sorry that this was a little brief, but my North Suburban Conference duties are very important. We may go early next week because I'll be off to the wilds of Fred C. Andersen Scout Camp for the Northwest District Camporee. And when I go camping, I bring two things -- a canteen and the HYYYYYPPPPPPPE! Ben out!
I've been remiss in discussing local races, which matter as much or more as the presidential race. One of the most important matters at hand for New Brighton residents is retiring Barb Goodwin, the placeholder DFLer who currently represents the area in the state Senate. Over at Enlighten New Brighton, Steve Taylor makes the case clearly:
Incumbent senator Barb Goodwin has been a disaster and an embarrassment. Her record is one of expanding the reach of government and the political influence of her party at the expense of our wealth and liberty. Goodwin has vigorously fought efforts to reign in government largesse while staunchly promoting a radically liberal big government, big labor agenda. Her actions indicate that she answers to her party leadership and special interest supporters with little regard to the people of her district.
In contrast, Gina Bauman has a stellar record of advocacy for the people. In her seven years in city government Gina has successfully fought to control spending and reform policies that were not in the best interests of the people without cutting essential services. She will do the same for us in the Minnesota Senate.
Gina has done a great job and is one of the most genuine people I know. She understands what needs to be done in St. Paul. We'll be talking more about this race, and several others, in the coming days, because a lot rides on the outcome of these elections.
Peggy Noonan has been hit-or-miss for a number of years now, but this observation seems right to me:
Jim Lehrer has been criticized as an inadequate moderator. He was old-school and a pro. He didn't think it was about him. How quaint. He asked questions, allowed a certain amount of leeway to both candidates, which allowed each to reveal himself, and kept things moving. Most of the criticism seems to have come from those who hoped Mr. Obama would emerge triumphant. Mr. Lehrer should not take it personally. Every shot at him was actually a warning shot aimed at the next moderator, Martha Raddatz. She's being told certain outcomes are desirable.
And Raddatz can consider that observation to be a warning shot as well.
They haven't replaced wallets with wheelbarrows in Iran yet, but it could be coming, Megan McCardle reports:
Steve Hanke estimates that inflation is running at 70% a month. This is, as Alex Tabarrok points out, nowhere near a record. Still, it's a Big Deal. Hyperinflation has brought down governments--Iran is experiencing protests over the collapsing rial. And it's not hard to see why. At the current rate of inflation the value of a savings account (or a mattress stash) is now barely 40% of what it was one month ago. In a few more months, even a healthy balance will be about enough to buy a pack of gum.
Hyperinflation is destabilizing in all sorts of other ways--it quickly becomes impossible to buy foreign exchange, and therefore, to buy imports; contracts become hellish to write; investment is practically impossible; and the sheer administrative difficulty of acquiring and handling enough cash becomes ever-more problematic. In Germany, it's really true that people used wheelbarrows to car their pocket change around, and housewives really used to run to the factory gates at lunch so they could get their husband's paycheck and spend it immediately--waiting until evening would have meant losing an appreciable amount of purchasing power. In effect, effort that used to be put into productive labor instead becomes focused on getting and spending money as quickly as possible.
This could be a game-changer in a place where the game desperately needs to change. We'll need to pay close attention.
I've been noticing a lot of triumphalism on the Right today, following the shaky performance of President Obama in yesterday's debate. Let’s cut to the chase.
• Obama will be better in the next debate. Likely, significantly better.
• While I've been skeptical of the polling for the entirety of this cycle, especially polls with anything showing a +5 edge for the Democrats, I doubt that Romney is actually leading at the moment. It's more likely that Obama has a small lead than not, or that Romney and Obama are tied.
• A lot of things are happening right now that will give Obama a chance to show leadership, especially in the Middle East. You may not have noticed it, but Turkey and Syria are on the brink of war. Turkey is a member of NATO, which means the U.S. has an obligation to get involved if war actually begins in earnest. Meanwhile, Iran is spiraling into a financial crisis and if things start to get desperate for the mullahs, you could see any number of things happen that will knock the debate results right off the front page.
• There are a whole lot of powerful people who are "all in" for Obama and they aren't likely to back away from him just because Obama had a rough night.
Bottom line — Romney likely helped himself last night. But he has a lot of challenges remaining. I wouldn't be taking any victory laps just yet.
UPDATE: While my advice stands, the reviews of what happened last night continue to come in. Tough hop for Big Bird on this one. Jim Lehrer can't be too happy, either. Don't miss Romney going Gangnam Style at the end:
The reviews are in for last night's debate and they aren't pretty. Andrew Sullivan is despairing:
Look: you know how much I love the guy, and you know how much of a high information viewer I am, and I can see the logic of some of Obama's meandering, weak, professorial arguments. But this was a disaster for the president for the key people he needs to reach, and his effete, wonkish lectures may have jolted a lot of independents into giving Romney a second look.
Obama looked tired, even bored; he kept looking down; he had no crisp statements of passion or argument; he wasn't there. He was entirely defensive, which may have been the strategy. But it was the wrong strategy. At the wrong moment.
The person with authority on that stage was Romney - offered it by one of the lamest moderators ever, and seized with relish. This was Romney the salesman. And my gut tells me he sold a few voters on a change tonight. It's beyond depressing. But it's true.
I was live-blogging last night (you can see that below this post) and so I really didn't concentrate on the body language and mannerisms of the candidates as much as the words. I've since had a chance to see a few clips of the debate and the body language was crucial. Sullivan's description is pretty much spot-on -- it was evident from body language that Romney was significantly more engaged than the president was.
In some respects, I almost wonder if Obama really doesn't want the job any more. He didn't look at his watch a la George H. W. Bush, but there was a bit of that in his performance. While Obama was mired in details, I've never thought that he enjoys delving into them that much. And it's somewhat amusing to see the guy who campaigned in 2008 on Hope and Change demanding specificity this time. But there you are.
The other problem is this -- I think that the Praetorian Guard that surrounds Obama hurt him in last night's debate, since it wasn't there. Obama isn't used to being challenged directly on his assertions and yesterday he didn't have anyone running interference for him. Romney was polite but he put a lot of arguments back in the president's face. In his own way, Romney is a pretty ruthless dude and on second viewing you could see how he took control of things in large ways and small. The one line that Romney uncorked that will do him the most good concerned Solyndra and green energy. I don't have the exact quote, but it was something like "you don't pick the winners and losers, you just pick the losers." There are a fair number of low information voters who may not know about Solyndra, but if they find out it won't be helpful to the president.
Did yesterday move the needle for Romney? Perhaps. The one thing that changed is this -- Romney wasn't much like the Gordon Gekko/cyborg persona that you've seen in caricatures and Obama television ads. He's a sharp, sharp man and he looked the part last night. Obama still has some significant advantages on his side, but he needs to do better in the next debate. Most of all, Obama needs to tell the American people why he wants the job again. He didn't do that last night and it seems to have cost him.
Okay, we're going to try this. It could be amusing, it could stink. We'll start with a little musical interlude. We'll be on to Denver in just a moment.
7:57 p.m. Michele Bachmann is running the same ads she ran against Tarryl Clark against Jim Graves. Probably saves on pre-production costs. Benster says he might have some post-debate comments. He hasn't offered a pointspread, though.
8 p.m. We're about to begin. Jim Lehrer is at the helm, so this should be earnest. Here he comes.
8:02 p.m. Lehrer announces that he has made the decisions on which questions get asked. And he wants no noises from the audience. Here they come. Obama has a blue/purple tie, while Romney is out in his 1987 power tie getup.
8:04 p.m. First question is about jobs. How does the president or Romney create jobs. Obama begins and starts with a shout-out to his wife, since it's their anniversary. Obama is now using the same narrative he's always used. Here come the strawmen -- invest in energy (but not coal, of course) and reduce deficits in a "balanced" way. Same crap we've heard before. Still blaming George Bush. Breaks out the "economic patriotism." Hate that.
8:06 p.m. Romney starts with the travelogue. He's been to Dayton and Denver. Can he help, the people ask. Whacks the strawmen. Now he comes down to the five point plan. We've heard this before too. Emphasis is on small business -- Romney "knows what it takes." Now he says "trickle down government."
8:09 p.m. Lehrer asks Obama about "trickle-down government." Obama starts rattling off the programs. Guess Romney was right. Obama wants to lower the corporate tax rate? He could have done that already, wonder why he hasn't? Still pushing the wind and solar and biofuels. This should give Romney a Solyndra opening.
8:11 p.m. Lehrer asks Romney about Obama's claims. Romney says he won't lower taxes on the rich. Talks about the crushing effect of costs -- gas, health care, etc. Middle income families are getting crushed. Education is key, Romney says. Talks about 47 different federal programs -- wants to send the money to the states. Lots of hand gestures, pushing things down. Split screen shows Obama smirking. Romney likes coal. More crushing, Romney says. No tax cut that adds to the deficit -- wants to reduce the burden on middle class. I'd like to know how.
8:14 p.m. Obama says he cut middle class taxes by $3600 per family. Not so far as I could tell. That payroll tax cut is going away, by the way. Obama doubles down on his earlier claim. $5 trillion in tax cuts. Says it's not possible. This will be a fact checkers festival, if they choose to. Going back to the "top down" rhetoric.
8:16 p.m. Romney says virtually everything Obama said is inaccurate. Romney doubles down. Compares Obama and Biden to his five sons, who told stories that weren't true when they were kids, apparently. Obama didn't like that. Now Romney's talking about small businesses.
8:19 p.m. Obama says Romney's bold new plan is "never mind." Obama says he lowered taxes on small businesses 18 times. But still wants tax increases on incomes over $250,000. That money could go to employees, or to Obama. Well, government employees need to be paid, I suppose. Says "Donald Trump is a small business." Obama warns of drastic cuts.
8:21 p.m. Lehrer wants to start the next segment. But he lets Romney finish. Points out that a businessman already pays an effective rate of 50%. Says Obama's plan will eliminate 700,000 jobs. Another number for the fact-checkers.
8:23 p.m. Obama still insists that Romney wants a $5 trillion tax cut. Either it's true, or it isn't. Says "math, common sense and history" dictate otherwise. By the way, how may trillion has been added to the national debt since 2009? He also wraps himself in Bill Clinton.
8:25 p.m. Romney says it's still not his plan. Jim Lehrer has lost control, by the way. Romney now goes to the last four years. 23 million out of work. 47 million on food stamps now. 47 -- where have I heard this before.
8:26 p.m. Lehrer now talks about federal debt. What are the differences on tackling the deficit.
8:28 p.m. Romney says it's a moral issue, not leaving debt to our children. Benster, watching with me, says "thank you." Romney talks about cutting. He'll cut Obamacare and PBS. Fearless Maria, also watching, wonders about cutting Big Bird. Now he discusses the huge debt Obama had.
8:28 p.m. Obama blames Bush again. Last I checked, Bush is somewhere in Texas. Obama claims he's cut 77 government programs. Went after medical fraud. Saved $50 billion in waste. Cut $1 trilllion out of budget. Well, that's easy when you raise the budget by $2 billion. Obama has a website. Mentions Bowles-Simpson. We'll hear more about this, I imagine. Obama is now officially filibustering -- blew past the two minute limit, daring Lehrer to stop.
8:31 p.m. Lehrer asks about Simpson-Bowles. Romney suggests Obama should have taken it up. Obama interrupts him. Romney explains why you shouldn't raise taxes. Suggests that more than just Donald Trump will get taxed more.
8:33 p.m. Lehrer tries to regain control. Not gonna happen. Now Romney is filibustering. Compares us to Spain. Well, I've never been to Spain, but I kinda like the music.
8:34 p.m. Obama is now bashing the oil companies. $4 billion in corporate welfare. ExxonMobil is very similar to Emmanuel Goldstein. Let's get those corporate jets, too. Can we tax Air Force One? Loopholes, deductions, yadda yadda. Romney looks incredulous. Balanced approach. Talks about helping young people. Benster says he doesn't want Obama's help.
8:36 p.m. Romney says $90 billion in breaks for green energy. $90 billion of tax breaks into solar and wind. There's Solyndra, Tesla -- "you don't just pick the winners and losers, you just pick the losers." Re overseas tax breaks -- Romney says the tax break for moving jobs overseas isn't true. Wants states to block grant Medicaid. States are laboratory of democracy. Let states do this.
8:39 p.m. Lehrer now talks about entitlements. What are the differences on Social Security? Obama says SS is structurally sound. Talks about Reagan/O'Neill fix from 25 years ago. Talking about his grandmother and says she was independent because of Medicare and Social Security. We're now talking about the $716 billion for "overpaying" insurance. This would be Medicare Advantage. The money goes to Obamacare, of course.
8:42 p.m. Romney says, don't worry about any changes for any current retirees or near retirees. If you're 60 or more, don't worry. Points out that $716 billion savings is just cutting the rates hospitals get paid. Doctors and hospitals won't take patients. End of Medicare Advantage. Put the money back into Medicare.
8:44 p.m. Obama says Medicare is a voucher program under Romney. Obama's against it. Insurance companies are gonna cherry pick, Obama says. His grandmother is at the mercy of the private system. AARP supports Obama. Well, yeah. AARP gets a lot of money under Obamacare.
8:47 p.m. Romney says you can stay in Medicare or try a different system, presumably vouchers. If the government can be as efficient as the private sector, people will choose Medicare. Romney is talking about means-testing benefits. Back to Ryan/Wyden and Simpson/Bowles. How about Baskin/Robbins?
