Oh noes! The government might shut down! My goodness, what're we gonna do? Someone warn everyone about it!
Okay, I'm on it. Time for the usual trenchant analysis.
I assume, since it always happens, that the Democrats will blame the Republicans, particularly the hated Tea Party, for this outrage, and that the compliant mainstream media will report their comments verbatim without adding any qualifiers or caveats, because that is how it is. Democrats tell the truth and Republicans are nefarious weasels who prefer the 1% get everything because they're Snidely Whiplash and don't care about the concerns of the poor, the downtrodden and all those who add to the sum total of goodness and love in the world by way of assertion. So it will be asserted. So it shall be. Oh, and by the way, John Boehner looks just like an Oompa Loompa. Had you noticed?
The particularly evil thing that the Republicans, particularly the odious Tea Party types, did was to specifically call out the medical device tax as a portion of Obamacare that must be repealed. It's especially unfair to brave public servants like Sen. Al Franken, who once wrote a book about "Lying Liars" or something like that (I haven't been to the remainder section of the bookstore lately, so I'm not certain of the title, but I think that's right) to have to vote to save that medical device tax. It's just mean and I'm sure that the people who work for Medtronic, St. Jude Medical, etc. here in the Twin Cities will understand that he really does love them and their industry, but it's just those bastard Teabaggers who are putting him on the spot. Don't worry, Al -- you're good enough, smart enough, and doggone it, people still like you.
We spent a lot of time on our recent vacation in facilities administered by the National Park Service, including Abraham Lincoln's birthplace in Kentucky and William Howard Taft's home in Cincinnati. They are clean, well-lighted places and the people who work there have really cool uniforms that look like the Benster's Boy Scout uniform, although they have the cool park ranger hats, too. Those places will be shut down right away, of course, and they'll be pulling the big gates shut at Yosemite and Yellowstone, for sure. Further proof that those teabaggin' ne'er-do-wells don't give a flying fig about history -- they even shut down facilities that honor Republicans!
In other words, we're about to enter the Moron Zone. Have fun with it.
So, old dude, it looks like the Vikings are going to try to recreate the victories of the Nordic hordes who ransacked Jolly Olde England a thousand years ago.
I thought they were there to play football.
That's just the cover story. I think. But we'll get to that eventually. Meanwhile, we have other business to attend to. Watch me work!
Iowa Hawkeyes (-1.5) vs. Minnesota Golden Gophers. Wait a minute, Vegas. You're seriously having the Gophers as a home dog? Have you seen Iowa play this year? They suck! They look like they snuck Ricky Stanzi back. Or maybe they're suiting up Zombie Nile Kinnick! Actually, they could use Zombie Nile Kinnick, given the caliber of the players wearing black and gold these days. The Gophers have been playing very well and are 4-0. While they did schedule a certain amount of cupcakes, they weren't all cupcake-like. In fact, San Jose State was more of a bundt cake. Bottom line is, the pig will not leave. Minnesota 24, Iowa 7. I think Iowa is a little better than terrible, but these two teams are about equal right now. Since the game is in Minneapolis, I tend to agree that the pig is staying put. Minnesota 27, Iowa 21. Beloved Wisconsin Badgers (+7) vs. Hated The Ohio State University Golden Pants Selling Weasels. If you are a regular reader of this feature, you may have noticed that I, the Benster, am not a fan of "The Ohio State University." In fact, I kinda hate 'em. Why is that, you ask? Well, they managed to replace Cheaty McSweater with someone who is even more smug and arrogant, Urban "Blight" Meyer. As always, the Buckeyes feature a boatload of talented athletes who (a) may or may not be running side businesses with ill-gotten merchandise or (b) may or may not be attending classes in animal husbandry and sports facilities management, or something like that. The point is, it's a easy team to hate. Meanwhile, the Badgers recovered nicely from the screw job in the desert and gave Purdue their annual thumping. Melvin Gordon is a beast and he is going to be a legitimate Heisman candidate after he leaves tread marks over various Buckeye defenders. Badgers 31, NCAA Investigation Target 28. Tough game for the Badgers. As the young fella noted, the Buckeyes are loaded with talent, as usual. And Meyer, while irritating, is a heck of a coach. I think it's close, but I have to sadly disagree with my son's sparkling analysis. Ohio State 31, Badgers 27. Ole Miss Rebels (+15) vs. Alabama Roll Tide. Speaking of teams that I find annoying, we turn our attention to Nick Saban, who is not shady but is oilier than western North Dakota. He leads his NFL-ready Tide against Ole Miss, which has been impressive this year up to now. They are stepping up in class rather a lot, but they should have hope. Alabama is not invincible at home, as Johnny Football proved last year, and LSU proved two years ago in the latest "Game of the Century." I believe that Alabama is going to get picked off eventually and this game is going to be the one. Ole Miss 35, Alabama 0. Uh, no. I think Alabama might lose this year, but it won't be to Ole Miss. Alabama 34, Ole Miss 17. Pittsburgh Stillers (-3) vs. Minnesota Vikings, in London, Baby! Time for a musical interlude. Sing it with me, Geritol Fan!
Come out of your cupboards, you boys and girls! It's time to watch some really mediocre American Football! The Vikings have conveniently noticed that Christian Ponder has sore ribs. I believe the injury diagnosis came from Famous Dave's, but I haven't confirmed that. So naturally, when in England, it makes sense to go with the Cassel. Matt Cassel, that is. Here is a scene of the Vikings at another castle:
Will the Steelers make the Vikings go away, or shall they taunt them a second time? Steelers 17, Vikings 7. I'm guessing Ben Roethlisberger isn't the one using this outrageous accent, but assuming he doesn't spend a lot of time chatting up the pub girls, he's a tough guy to beat. Both of these teams really need this game, which makes it interesting, but I'm pretty sure the Vikings wish they were in the Metrodome instead of Wembley Stadium. Pittsburgh 27, Vikings 20. Tottenham Hotspur (NL) vs. Chelsea. Look, this is the football game taking place in London this weekend that people there really care about. We haven't picked too many Premier League fixtures in this space, but as you know I have mad soccer skillz when it comes to the Premier League. Chelsea is a perennial power in the Premier League, but lately Tottenham has risen in the ranks from a mid-table club to a contender for bigger things. As it happens, the old dude is a Tottenham supporter, even though he doesn't really understand the game. Of course, not understanding the game has never stopped the old dude, as his always dubious picks have proven throughout the years. The thing is, this game is taking place at Tottenham's stadium, the venerable White Hart Lane, which sounds like a good name for a trailer park somewhere in Oklahoma. Actually, it's a somewhat fashionable address in North London. And Spurs will do well, considering they have improved despite selling superstar Gareth Bale. Tottenham 2, Chelsea 1. It's true, I do like Tottenham Hotspur. How can you not like a team named Tottenham Hotspur? And let's face it, how can you not like their new coach, who provides a useful tutorial on the game. Really, check it out -- I'm sure you'll learn something.
Actually, I do know this much -- Gareth Bale is gone and Spurs now have guys named Soldado and Paulinho. So how can you not love that? Tottenham 1, Chelsea 0. Bear Down Chicago da Bearz (+3) vs. Detroit Rock City Motor City Kitties. Back to the football that we actually understand. So far, da Bearz are off to a fine start, gladdening the heart of our pal Gino and exciting the citizenry of Chicago. Now they go to Detroit, where Ndamukong Suh awaits with plans to stomp Jay Cutler in the facemask. Here is Suh at a recent Lions practice:
As always, I appreciate Suh's calm approach to the game. Lions 28, da Bearz 7. The Bears have improved, but this is going to be a tough assignment. Jay Cutler has historically played quite well against the Lions, but Suh, Nick Fairley and company are in a foul mood this week. And while the Bears are in good position right now, they're going to come back to the pack a bit. Lions 31, Bears 27.
Understand this -- we will be picking an Everton game one of these weeks. Everton is my club. Ben out!
Everyone in the punditocracy and the blogosphere seems to be weighing in on the imminent arrival of Obamacare, which starts up for real next week. Funding, or defunding, of Obamacare is the question of the day, the latest of the countless parade of manufactured crises we've seen this year coming out of Washington (show of hands -- anyone even remember the sequester fight?)
So, What Does It All Mean? I've been scratching my chin, ruminating deeply all the while, and here are my deep thoughts on the matter:
First, the Ted Cruz kinda sorta filibuster wasn't really about stopping Obamacare. Cruz knows that Barack Obama isn't going to agree to defunding his signature achievement. He also knows that there isn't a chance in hell that Majority Leader Harry Reid would let anything like that happen. What Cruz was trying to do was to set down a marker, to remind everyone that Republicans unanimously opposed Obamacare when it was working through the legislative process, and that the Democratic Party and the politicians that fly under its banner are solely responsible for what is coming.
Of course, many of Cruz's colleagues objected to Cruz's approach, which they viewed as grandstanding, and said as much. It is astonishing to imagine a United States senator might be grandstanding, I know, since it never happens. And besides that, Cruz hasn't been in the joint long enough to be allowed to strut like a peacock. It just isn't done. The guy just doesn't have any manners, despite going to Princeton, or something. Cruz's primary critic, Sen. John McCain, gave an apt demonstration of why Republicans so richly deserve the designation "Stupid Party." Anyone who worries about collegiality in a body where Harry Reid is in charge is, well, stupid.
What will ultimately sink Obamacare is that it will make people's lives more miserable, especially in ways that are irritating. The websites for the various healthcare exchanges are already turning out to be a disaster, unable to calculate accurate pricing because of the complexity involved in determining whether a rate should be subsidized or not. And while Obama and his acolytes have been crowing in recent days that rates are "lower than expected," that begs the obvious question that the compliant media rarely ask: whose expectations are we talking about here? And what about this promise?
The biggest symbolic thing the Republicans could do is insist that Congress, and everyone else in the federal government, enter the Obamacare system. No waivers, no special treatment. Make everyone in Washington who draws a paycheck from Uncle Sam participate fully in the program. And then, make sure the law is fully enforced. No waivers for Cadillac union plans, or for McDonald's, or for anyone else. No special pleading. Everyone in the pool.
The bottom line is that you can't solve the problem of Obamacare by defunding it, at least when Obama sits at the Resolute Desk and Harry Reid wields the gavel. But if you make the problem universal, you're more likely to gain the political support needed to do something about it later on. Barack Obama is leaving in 2017, one way or another. His signature achievement might be leaving then, too.
One of the things that you are likely to hear during the campaign for New Brighton municipal offices is that New Brighton ought to do more to partner with other local communities. What that really means is this -- the goal is to get New Brighton to rejoin the various lobbying groups that it abandoned in 2009 when Dave Jacobsen became mayor. I wrote about this back in 2011 and the arguments haven't changed. Nor has the obvious beneficiary of a change, former mayor Bob Benke, who ran unsuccessfully to unseat Jacobsen in 2011. In fact, Benke is still a registered lobbyist for such organizations.
If one of the challengers knocks on your door in the next month, ask him or her whether they support having New Brighton rejoin the North Metro Mayors Association. Then ask them why.
As I write this morning, the long speech/filibuster that Sen. Ted Cruz began, in opposition to funding Obamacare, is still going on. We're now about 15 hours into this.
There's no doubt that, in the end, the Senate will vote to fund Obamacare. The "filibuster" won't stop this from happening. What it does is put everyone on the record; do they support Obamacare, or don't they? That's the point of the exercise. Sen. Mary Landrieu will need to vote. Sen. David Mark Pryor will have to vote. Even Sen. Al Franken will have to vote. If you want to watch, it's on here.
As you consider your vote in the upcoming New Brighton municipal elections, it's important to understand the following:
Councilmember Mary Burg is not running for re-election to her own seat on the council. Since her seat is not up this cycle, she'll be part of the council for the next two years, no matter what else happens.
Mary Burg is instead running for mayor, attempting to oust Mayor Dave Jacobsen, who has been an effective mayor for the last four years.
If Burg is successful, she will get to name her own replacement on the city council, which effectively means that a vote for Burg is the equivalent of voting for her twice, since the mayor's vote on the council has the same weight as the vote of the other members of the council.
Mary Burg wanted to keep a significant portion of the Local Government Assistance (LGA) money that got showered down on New Brighton, instead of having it go for property tax relief. Because Gina Bauman outmaneuvered her, the money is going to property tax relief instead of being spent, and included in municipal baseline budgeting going forward.
LGA money isn't something you can count on -- in many years, New Brighton hasn't received any.
If Mary Burg is elected mayor, she will be able to effectively stop Gina Bauman from guarding your money, whether Bauman is re-elected or not, because she will effectively control two of the five votes on the council, and she will likely have no trouble gaining the support of at least one other member of the council, especially if one of the newcomer candidates (about whom more in a future post) is successful in ousting Bauman.
To boil it down: if you vote for Mary Burg, you are voting to raise taxes on yourself. Perhaps that is what you want. Perhaps you are Happy to Pay for a Better New Brighton. Just understand that is what will happen if Burg is successful in ousting Mayor Jacobsen.
We're going to take a much longer look at the upcoming municipal elections in New Brighton over the next month, but it's important for everyone in the city to understand these things:
If you vote for anyone other than Gina Bauman for city council, you are voting to raise taxes on yourself
If you vote for anyone other than Dave Jacobsen for mayor, you are voting to raise taxes on yourself
It may be that, from our perspective, the Great War on Terror is ending. It's not ending well, that is. First, we go to Nairobi:
Kenya's Red Cross said the death toll rose to 68 after nine bodies were recovered Sunday. More than 175 people were injured, including many children, Kenyan officials said.
Somalia's al-Qaida-linked rebel group, al-Shabab, claimed responsibility for the attack that specifically targeted non-Muslims, saying it was in retribution for Kenyan forces' 2011 push into neighboring Somalia.
Choir members and children attending Sunday school were among 81 people killed in a suicide bombing at a Protestant church in northwest Pakistan.
It was one of the deadliest attacks ever on the Christian community in Pakistan.
The attack took place at the All Saints Church of Pakistan, in the violence-plagued city of Peshawar, about 120 kilometers (75 miles) from the country's capital, Islamabad.
A congregation of about 500 people was attending the church. Two attackers struck right as services concluded.
"Suicide bombers entered the church compound from the main gate and blew themselves up in the midst of the people," a statement posted on the diocese website read.
We aren't going to do anything about either incident, of course. We'll deplore and denounce, because we're tired of war, and rightly so. We've spent a decade, and perhaps a trillion dollars, underscoring the point that we aren't going to be able to change many hearts and minds in the world. That may be something we have to accept. It's going to be difficult, though. Fatalism is fatal. And it won't end well.
Here's an amazing story from 1961. Did you know that we almost nuked North Carolina? The Guardian has the details:
A secret document, published in declassified form for the first time by the Guardian today, reveals that the US Air Force came dramatically close to detonating an atom bomb over North Carolina that would have been 260 times more powerful than the device that devastated Hiroshima.
The document, obtained by the investigative journalist Eric Schlosser under the Freedom of Information Act, gives the first conclusive evidence that the US was narrowly spared a disaster of monumental proportions when two Mark 39 hydrogen bombs were accidentally dropped over Goldsboro, North Carolina on 23 January 1961. The bombs fell to earth after a B-52 bomber broke up in mid-air, and one of the devices behaved precisely as a nuclear weapon was designed to behave in warfare: its parachute opened, its trigger mechanisms engaged, and only one low-voltage switch prevented untold carnage.
Each bomb carried a payload of 4 megatons – the equivalent of 4 million tons of TNT explosive. Had the device detonated, lethal fallout could have been deposited over Washington, Baltimore, Philadelphia and as far north as New York city – putting millions of lives at risk.
Let's hear it for malfunctioning low-voltage switches! More at the link.
Yep -- it's Cincinnati week! The Packers are going to play the Bungles. We'll talk about that a little later, though, because we have other things to do, like apply my analytical skills to the college ranks.
Skills?
Yes, Geritol Fan, skills. I have skills. You have signs of dementia.
I have to go with my strengths.
Fair enough. Watch me work!
San Jose State Spartans (+3.5) vs. Minnesota Golden Gophers. So you would think the Gophers would be safe against yet another hopelessly overmatched nonconference foe. You would be wrong. The Spartans are a pretty good outfit. They went to a bowl game last year and finished their season 10-2. Now, I suspect they might have played a few cupcakes, but still, 10 wins is 10 wins. And they have a very good quarterback by the name of David Fales, who rarely fails. He's quite likely to be a serious Heisman contender. Yes, I just said that. Meanwhile, the Gophers are undefeated, untied and a bit unknown. They have played pretty well against a parade of nobodies, but this one is a legitimate test and you would be a fool to expect a blowout. San Jose State 29, Gophers 17. Interesting. I did check San Jose State's opponents last year and it appears that they played several high schools and a prison team from San Quentin. Actually, I made that up. They're okay. I do think the Gophers are better. The key question is how backup quarterback Mitch Leidner plays, since Phillip Nelson is not going to be available. Gophers 28, SJSU 24. Purdon't Boilermakers (+24) vs. Beloved Wisconsin Badgers. The good news for the Badgers is that there is no evidence that Pac-12 officials are going to be anywhere near Camp Randall. Man, did the Badgers get hosed or what? It doesn't matter now -- they aren't going to change the score. But, the Badgers have come back from tough defeats repeatedly over the last three years. And they've found their way to Pasadena each time. The road back starts now. Purdue? Be afraid. Be very afraid. Bucky 90, Boilermaker Pete 0. Uh, no. Purdue isn't very good, but if the Badgers haven't scored over 50 points against Tennessee Tech, they aren't going to put up 90 on Purdue. However, I think they will score a lot of points. And Purdue won't. Wisconsin 49, Purdue 14. Michigan State Spartans (+5.5) vs. Notre Dame Fighting Irish. I watched a little of the Irish last week and they struggled against Purdue. Granted, the game was in West Lafayette, but let's be truthful here -- the Boilermakers kinda stink. As an alert reader, you'll see that I picked the Badgers to beat Purdue by 90. So while comparing scores is always a dangerous game, I have to think that the Irish aren't really that good this year. As for Sparty, the same could be said. I don't see any evidence that the Spartans have cleaned up their program or that they'll be able to score very much. So the question is -- which team sucks less? Irish 17, Sparty 13. Remind me why we picked this game? Oh yeah, it was hard to get too enthusiastic over the Alabama/Colorado State game. I guess they can't play to a scoreless tie, so let's give our pal Bubba a little love and say: Michigan State 17, Notre Dame 13. Cleveland Browns (+6) vs. Minnesota Vikings. So the Browns have already decided to mail it in for the year, having traded away their only good offensive player, Trent Richardson, to the Colts. The Browns have signed 52-year-old Willis McGahee to replace him, presumably because Earnest Byner wouldn't take their phone calls. If I were a Cleveland fan, I'd be pretty angry about all this. How can you support a team that trades away their best players? That's like rooting for the Minnesota Twins! As for the Vikings, they almost pulled it off in Chicago, but Jay Cutler broke their hearts. I'm sad to say that plenty of other quarterbacks are going to break their hearts, too. Fortunately the for the Vikings, the Browns don't have a quarterback, since Chris Chandler wouldn't take their calls, either. Vikings 10, Browns 0. The Vikings will win this game easily. There's nothing else to say about it. Minnesota 31, Cleveland 10. Glorious Green Bay Packers (-2.5) vs. Cincinnati Bengals. I've been to Cincinnati recently. It's a lot of fun. You get enormous mounds of cheese covered chili and really good ice cream. You also should stay in Florence, y'all. That would be Florence, Kentucky, which has the world's coolest water tower. You doubt me? Check it out:
You only wish you were as cool as that water tower. As for the game, the Bengals are a pretty good team and they have some weapons. Watch out for A. J. Green, who might be the best receiver in the AFC. However, they have only an okay quarterback in Andy Dalton, who just isn't an elite guy. The Packers have an elite guy. You may have heard of him. Packers 40, Bengals 35. This game makes me nervous, because the Bengals can rush the passer. Aaron Rodgers is playing at a tremendous level right now, however. I think the young fella is right, it's going to be a high scoring affair. Packers 35, Cincinnati 31. Bear Down Chicago da Bearz (-2.5) vs. Pittsburgh Stillers. So when was the last time the Steelers were a home underdog? I believe it was about 1971. Da Bearz did a nice job of finishing the deal against the Vikes last week; however, it's time to break out our favorite theory -- watch out for the desperate team at home. Pittsburgh 23, da Bearz 7. Gino thinks the Bears are for real. It's possible that they are. We'll know a lot more about the Bears if they can go into a hostile environment and win. The Steelers are in trouble this year, so I think they will. Bears 24, Steelers 21.
I would just like to send a request to Rupert Murdoch. Can you send anyone besides Joe Buck and Troy Aikman to cover the Packers. Please? I'm begging you, in the name of all that is good, just and decent, send them off to watch the Giants or something. Ben out!
I'm really not prepared to comment yet on the very long interview that Pope Francis gave in August, which has been much in the news lately. There's a lot to read and I haven't had the time yet to do so. While it is an article of faith in nearly all Christian doctrines that the Holy Spirit is always present in the world, it's not always easy to discern that presence. I do think that something big is happening, however, both within the Church and in the larger world, and that the Holy Spirit is very much at work right now.
Speaker Boehner and Majority Leader Eric Cantor made a point of supporting President Obama’s quest for military strikes on Syria because they thought it would earn them some reciprocal goodwill. Then they got to watch Obama take the stage, just hours after a shooting rampage at the Washington Naval Yard, and launch slash-and-burn partisan attacks against them. Perhaps that influenced their decision to go all-in on ObamaCare repeal. Maybe they got tired of trying to shake hands with someone who keeps hitting them below the belt.
The muse is elsewhere this morning, so I've got nothin' much to say. There are some issues that are worth discussing, but the timing isn't quite right yet. So in the meantime, if you'd like to read something worthwhile this morning, I'd suggest you read either:
Mitch Berg's wonderful take on his home state of North Dakota; or
Brad Carlson's thoughtful analysis of the Jerry Kill Kerfuffle, (which would be a pretty good band name, by the way)
Remember the e-pulltabs? The magical funding device that would pay for the Vikings stadium, or so we were told? Bupkis:
Electronic gambling, which hit Minnesota bars with great fanfare last September, did not raise a dime for the glassy new Vikings football stadium this year.
Minnesotans plunked down $15 million over the past year to play the electronic games, but 85 percent bounced back to players as prizes, new state figures show. That left about $2 million to be divided among charity expenses, donations and taxes — nowhere near the original projection of $35 million in taxes for the first year.
Well, how do you like that? Over to you, Governor Dayton:
Gov. Mark Dayton, who made a Vikings stadium a top priority, said the year’s track record confirms that the e-pulltab funding formula was a gamble.
“To take an untried source of revenue for the sole source of funding for a major project is ill-advised,” he said Friday. “That’s my number one take-away from this.”
But, Dayton said, “We made an honest mistake and corrected it.”
Can't sneak much past the Gov, eh? I do have to quibble with one thing. This wasn't an honest mistake. It was crap from the get-go and anyone who was paying attention knew that. Thankfully, the Star Tribune calls one of the four Rotating Sages of Local Academe* to explain the obvious to its thankful readership:
Political analyst David Schultz said e-gambling has served its purpose. It got a Vikings stadium bill through the Legislature. He remains incredulous that nobody in government knew that the sales projections were so off or that they had come from the gambling industry.
When ignorance is bliss, 'tis folly to be wise, Professor. They didn't want to think about the truth, because truth doesn't get the Vaseline Dome built. I might add that the time to be incredulous was about 18 months ago, but I suppose that's not nice, either. Better Minnesota, kids. Better Minnesota.
Meanwhile, Dayton continues to fume about something else he supposedly didn't understand:
But in a letter Monday to the Minnesota Sports Facilities chairwoman Michele Kelm-Helgen, Dayton urged the authority to make sure the owners and team contribute "significant equity" to the project, and not rely heavily on personal seat license fees . "I strongly urge you to negotiate a final financial agreement, which requires the Vikings' owners to provide a significant share of their financial contribution from their own resources, and not from Vikings' fans through the sale of expensive personal seat licenses," Dayton wrote.
In other words, he wants to change the terms of the deal, yet again. Not surprisingly, the Vikings are telling Dayton to piss up a rope.
Vikings spokesman Lester Bagley said the price of seat licenses is among a handful of items still at issue in the team's negotiations with the authority. "These licenses were discussed during the legislative process, they were anticipated and authorized by the legislation," Bagley said.
So the upshot is that you have to pay the Vikings to get into the People's Stadium. It's only fair -- Lester Bagley and Zygi Wilf are people, as far as we can tell.
Remember, Helga Braid Nation: smoke 'em if you got 'em. It's gonna take a whole lotta smokin' to get this thing built.
*The RSLA are Schultz of Hamline Law School, Larry Jacobs of the U, Kathryn Pearson of the U, and Steven Schier of Carleton. No political story in Minnesota can be reported without one of them weighing in.
A leaked copy of the world’s most authoritative climate study reveals scientific forecasts of imminent doom were drastically wrong.
Really? What else?
The 31-page ‘summary for policymakers’ is based on a more technical 2,000-page analysis which will be issued at the same time. It also surprisingly reveals: IPCC scientists accept their forecast computers may have exaggerated the effect of increased carbon emissions on world temperatures – and not taken enough notice of natural variability.
--They recognise the global warming ‘pause’ first reported by The Mail on Sunday last year is real – and concede that their computer models did not predict it. But they cannot explain why world average temperatures have not shown any statistically significant increase since 1997.
--They admit large parts of the world were as warm as they are now for decades at a time between 950 and 1250 AD – centuries before the Industrial Revolution, and when the population and CO2 levels were both much lower.
-- The IPCC admits that while computer models forecast a decline in Antarctic sea ice, it has actually grown to a new record high. Again, the IPCC cannot say why.
-- A forecast in the 2007 report that hurricanes would become more intense has simply been dropped, without mention.
This year has been one of the quietest hurricane seasons in history and the US is currently enjoying its longest-ever period – almost eight years – without a single hurricane of Category 3 or above making landfall.
Despite that, the IPCC wants to go full speed ahead anyway. Of course they do. More at the link.
The kids and I stopped by the SD41 picnic yesterday. It was interesting. A few things:
At least two gubernatorial candidates showed up. I saw Kurt Zellers, but we had to leave before he spoke, so I can't tell you what he said. I'm not sure that Zellers is going to make much headway anyway. I did see Sen. Dave Thompson, however. I suspect that the battle for the GOP nomination is going to come down to either Thompson or Hennepin County Commissioner Jeff Johnson. It's a tough decision, because both Johnson and Thompson are potentially very good candidates. One thing that's evident is that Thompson has better communication skills. As most people who follow Minnesota politics know, before he entered the arena Thompson spent a number of years as a radio show host on KSTP. I enjoyed his show because he did a good job of explaining conservative philosophy well, which I think is going to be important in this cycle. The version of a stump speech that Thompson gave at SD41 shows that he's thought things through quite well and that he'll be able to communicate his message quickly and clearly, which is the key to reaching potential voters, especially outstate. It's a tough call, because Jeff Johnson is a good guy and has done a lot of good work as the voice of sanity on the Hennco board, but at this point I prefer Dave Thompson. I continue to regret that Thompson and Johnson are running for the same office; it's too bad that one of the two candidates isn't running against Al Franken instead, because I'm not particularly impressed with the candidates who are in that race.
State GOP Chair Keith Downey also stopped by the picnic to give an update on how things are going at the mothership. It's not news that the MN GOP has been a train wreck for a number of years now, especially under the stewardship of Tony Sutton, who let a lot of things slide, including accounts payable. Downey's immediate predecessor, Pat Shortridge, did what he could to patch things together in the last cycle, but 2012 turned out to be a disaster for the Republican Party in the state. Downey, who was formerly a state legislator himself, is a far better public face for the party than Sutton. Bills are getting paid now and the party is making some headway in fundraising, although it continues to be a tough environment. I was encouraged by several things Downey said, especially concerning the overall messaging strategy the party will take into the next cycle. The DFL is very good at the demonization game and the key thing for GOP candidates in this cycle is to cut through the attacks and stay on the issues, because the DFL has a record it must defend in 2014. The GOP needs to make sure that the DFL is required to make that defense, rather than just chanting mantras and giving GOP candidates the Emanuel Goldstein treatment.
As for SD41, it's early yet, but I remain convinced that we can have some success in 2014. The 41A side of the district is not easy territory, but a good candidate should have a chance to give incumbent Connie Bernardy a challenge. 41B, where I live, is a tougher nut to crack, because the district includes DFL redoubt Columbia Heights. We'll be looking at these challenges more after the first of the year.
Writing about Syria, Adam Garfinkle's sage advice concerning What We Should Do Now:
Above all, the Administration needs to use the coming autumn not just to restore American credibility, but even more fundamentally to rebuild its image as being capable of mature, professional and responsible foreign policy behavior. If it doesn’t do that, there is no hope of its developing an effective policy toward the Syrian mess and, indeed, the region as a whole. In the meantime, my only advice would be to please shut up unless it is absolutely necessary to say something in public. The staccato headlines of late, nearly every one of them sending the gaffe meter through the roof, need to stop. As some used to like to say, the whole world is watching.
It's the speak softly and carry a big stick thing, yet again. Good advice for well over 100 years now.
