John McCain made his speech tonight. It was a very different performance than what we saw from Sarah Palin last night and the constrast was effective. A few quick thoughts.
- As always, biography is a key part of McCain's argument. While it's possible that some people are by now tired of hearing about McCain's stint as a POW in Vietnam, it is crucial to understanding who he is and what motivates him. Fred Thompson told the gruesome details in his stemwinder on Tuesday and what we heard tonight from McCain was more about the interior monologue of that experience. Given who his opponent is, McCain would be foolish not to use his life experience.
- In some respects, I got a John Kennedy vibe from the speech. There was a lot about honor, duty, love of country and giving back to the country. It's a theme that has not been out front for a long time now - while just about every candidate since JFK has paid lip service to these notions, McCain's presentation was far more explicit than anything we heard on the subject from Obama, or from W or Bill Clinton for that matter in previous campaigns. I don't know if it will resonate or not -- we are now nearly 50 years from that time and much has changed.
- The atmospherics couldn't have been more different. Obama gave his speech from a distant podium in a football stadium; McCain built a thrust stage that put him in the lap of his audience. Obama was distant; McCain was intimate. I suspect that the intimate approach is the better one.
Some of the early polling indicated that whatever bounce Obama got from his convention was largely eroded by today. My guess is that McCain and Palin will be in the lead, narrowly, by the time the weekend polling is done. People are paying attention now and the dynamics that have driven the race up to this point are going to change. As we've been saying all week -- game on.
10 comments:
"My guess is that McCain and Palin will be in the lead, narrowly, by the time the weekend polling is done."
Heh. I'll be back in a few days to remind you that you said this.
Sure, good sir. Stop back any time. Even if it turns out that I'm right.
Don't put too much stock in the polls regardless of what they say at this point. Pollsters with an agenda (of course this wouldn't happen in this race) have been known to sandbag their guy at first and then tout a sudden meteoric rise as a sudden "momentum shift" at a strategic time.
I don't generally pay a lot of attention to polls, RH, especially if they are affiliated in any way by the Star Tribune.
It's going to be ugly in any event.
Mark,
I didn't get to see the whole speech, but did watch the highlights and saw most of the last part, which I believe is what you are referring to as the bio piece. I did think that was quite effective, and I caught much of the same vibe you did. I really like this guy, and always have. And I swear to you that if it were HRC he was running against, I would be voting for him. From what my Conservative friends have told me today, it sounds like I would have liked the first half of the speech even more than the second. One described the effect of the entire speech as "McCain is running against the Democrats and the Republicans." I don't think he is much of a McCain fan.
If that is what McCain has been planning all along, then your Palin prediction has become even more prescient. McCain makes the Right happy with the Palin pick, avoids a floor fight, sews up the nomination and goes back into Maverick mode. I plan on watching it tonight. And you are right, it is going to get ugly.
We do need to talk Sox/Twins some time soon. That too is going to get ugly.
Have a great weekend,
Rich
I ignore individual polls. It's not political bias that concerns me, it's sensationalism bias. The media has to turn every poll into a 'story' so it always find some bizarre headline worthy interpretation of every poll even if statistically nothing has changed in months. I generally check pollster.com to see what the averages of all the polls that have been taken are and that seems to give a pretty accurate picture of what's really going on.
I don't know how prescient I am, Rich, but it seemed pretty clear that an establishment pick like Mitt Romney would have cemented the argument that Obama has been making. McCain had an opening when Obama picked Biden, about as establishment a pick as you could make, and McCain had the wit to blast through the opening.
Palin is a talent; she could still stumble (the zippy one-liners could be morphed into a "what a bitch" meme pretty quickly), but the Democrats, in trying to knock her out and floating the Eagleton meme so soon, may have inoculated her against a lot of attacks that might have been otherwise effective. Now they're flailing - my favorite one in the last 24 hours is the breathless "she went to 5 different colleges in 6 years" business that Politico retailed. I know plenty of people who ended up patching together an education in a number of places. I bet you do, too, Rich. :)
As for the Twins, based on the recent road trip results, I'd say they fall into the "dead but too dumb to lie down" category. If Joe Nathan doesn't get his act together soon, they might end up behind Cleveland. I like your Sox's chances.
Best,
Mark
Mark,
I only went to 4 colleges in 7 years for my first degree. Clearly, there is something wrong with Ms. Palin. This needs to be investigated! Maybe we can get James Carville on this one. Oh wait, he went to 7 colleges in 13 years to get his degree. LOL
Rich
i went to one college for 26yrs and counting.
Bluto went to college for 7 Years and got kicked out by Dean Wormer
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