Jeff Johnson, blank slate

So Jeff Johnson is the GOP nominee to take on Mark Dayton:

Republicans chose Jeff Johnson on Tuesday to be their candidate for governor, betting that the mild-mannered political veteran is the party’s best chance to unseat Democratic Gov. Mark Dayton in November.

Johnson, a Hennepin County commissioner from Plymouth, led a four-man field throughout the night and, with 95 percent of the vote in as this edition went to press, emerged victorious with about 30 percent of the vote. Party endorsement helped propel Johnson past state Rep. Kurt Zellers, who trailed in second with 24 percent. Former state Rep. Marty Seifert came in third and businessman Scott Honour placed last among the major candidates.

Johnson's goal?

Low-key by nature, Johnson has sold himself as a solid conservative who would push to lower taxes, cut state spending, grow jobs and advocate for a state “where every child has access to a great education … patients and doctors make their own health care decisions … and there is no longer anger or envy over income differences.”

Does that last part seem possible to you? Anger and envy are the fuel that has driven the DFL for as long as I can remember. Never mind that Dayton is the heir to a vast family fortune and that his plutocrat ex-wife, a Rockfeller no less, has been bankrolling his political adventures for the past four years. The DFL is for the little guy; just ask them!

I don't think there's any question that Johnson is a solid conservative; for me, he was an easy choice over his rivals. Still, he's not particularly well-known and will have only a limited amount of time to make a proper introduction to Minnesota voters before Dayton's goon squad, a/k/a the Alliance for a Better Minnesota, frames the issue. I don't know if Jeff Johnson's ever had any moving violations, but ABM will surely inform all of us if he does.

Mark Dayton would be a vulnerable candidate if people actually paid attention. He's been ducking debates and joint appearances up to this point for a reason -- he's actually pretty incoherent. I've been comparing Dayton to Gov. William Lepetomane, the buffoonish character that Mel Brooks played in the movie Blazing Saddles, but it's actually a more serious problem than that. The Brooks character is a figure of fun, but there's nothing particularly amusing about Dayton's performance in office. I'd encourage you to take a look at Bill Glahn's recent post concerning revenue shortfalls. A taste:

Once again, the state office of Management and Budget (MMB) has issued a monthly state revenue total that falls below its forecast.  For the month of July, state government revenues fell $69 million below expectations, with individual income tax receipts representing most of the shortfall.  Not a good start to the new fiscal year.

Last month, MMB did not produce a monthly report, issuing instead a recap of the just completed fiscal year, which showed a small surplus.

So, for those scoring at home, July’s report marked the fifth consecutive (1, 2, 3, 4, 5) monthly report that came in below forecast (excluding the June report).  Five out of six months below forecast does not sound like a state with a booming economy.  At some point, all of these monthly shortfalls will add up, and we will be faced with a budget deficit.  At present, they are still being dismissed as “variations” that will even out over time.

Emphasis mine. Bill is correct -- you're going to hear Dayton crowing about budget surpluses, but the trend is not his friend. It's not likely that Dayton's pals in the local media are going to do much to tell this story, so Johnson's campaign will have to make the case.