Time to put down a marker on the Republican side. Impressions:
Donald Trump continues to suck most of the air out of the room. I don't know that, when it comes time to actually vote, he'll get many. He is entertaining, of course, and he's been able to dominate the news cycle ever since he got in the race. I don't see him making it, though.
Jeb Bush doesn't really have a reason to run, other than it's his turn. He also gains a lot of enmity among the base. His best hope is that Trump clears out a bunch of the other candidates.
Scott Walker hasn't had a great launch, but he's got a great story and he can tell it well enough. He'll be a contender.
Marco Rubio is a talented guy; he may emerge. He's made a few enemies, though, and they tend to be loud.
Ben Carson is, in the end, not a serious candidate. He has his fans, but I don't see him getting there.
Mike Huckabee has his constituency, but his constituency isn't going to be sufficient to get the nomination. He's got too much Elmer Gantry in him for my tastes.
Rand Paul has been trying to thread the needle by keeping some libertarian street cred while simultaneously trying to avoid the odor of his father's campaign. I don't think he'll be able to sustain it.
Ted Cruz might be the most talented guy in the field. I suspect he'll do very well in the debates. He could emerge.
Chris Christie is too much of a jerk to get through the process. He'll find a way to implode.
John Kasich might have the best credentials in the field, but he's not a pleasant person and he's got too much Jon Huntsman in him to win. If you don't recognize the name Jon Huntsman, you've actually identified the problem.
Rick Perry is sitting pretty low in the polls, but I think he could emerge. He's clearly learned from his 2012 run and has a good record. Someone to watch.
Carly Fiorina has been the most pleasant surprise of the campaign. She's smart and she's tough. A lot of people bag on her for her unsuccessful Senate campaign in California, but the electorate she would face nationally will be easier to sway than the electorate she saw in California. There's a good chance she'll be the VP candidate on the final ticket.
Bobby Jindal is potentially a very good candidate, but he can't get started. Not sure where his constituency will come from, either.
Rick Santorum is not going to make it. He's essentially battling for the same voters as Huckabee and there aren't enough of them to get the nomination.
Lindsey Graham should just go home.
George Pataki is running, I guess. Needs something to do, apparently.
Jim Gilmore apparently was the governor of Virginia at some point. He had an excellent career in the old ABA as well. No, I'm sorry, that was Artis Gilmore.
Let me know your thoughts in the comments.
6 comments:
Fiorina's a nice surprise. Given the debacle that was her time at HP--not all her fault because she presided over a company in huge transition with Agilent--hard sell, but she's saying a lot of the right things.
I'm hoping that someone simply steps forward and says obvious things in a non-offensive way. We have a right to do background checks on all immigrants and show the door to those with felony records. When we said "never again", we meant it--cherry deals with nations that host Holocaust denial conferences and promote the blood libel are right out. We have a huge debt problem--need to convert spending streams into revenue streams. We need to make welfare programs an "on ramp", phased out over income, rather than a prison.
I won't vote for any of them, so feel free to take this with a boulder of salt, but...
Bush, Walker, and Kasich could probably do the job competently. If Bush had literally any other last name he'd probably be the runaway frontrunner. I think Walker is the strongest candidate (which is not to say I think he'd be the best president). Kasich is running for the nod of a party that doesn't exist.
Jindal, Christie, Perry, Paul: their moments have passed, and are each their own worst enemies.
Ted Cruz has the potential to reach Gingrichian levels of likability with some coaching.
I wish Ben Carson was still practicing medicine. He was really good at that.
Fiorina is running for VP.
The candidacies of Graham, Pataki, Huckabee, and Gilmore baffle me. I cannot fathom what they expect to gain from this.
I am enjoying the Trump campaign immensely.
I hope Santorum runs for president until he dies, because I love watching that bigotted little goblin lose elections.
Oh I forgot Rubio. I have a very neutral impression of him, which is probably why I forgot him.
Ted Cruz has the potential to reach Gingrichian levels of likability with some coaching.
Heh.
Fiorina is running for VP.
Yep.
I am enjoying the Trump campaign immensely.
Well, it is classy and yuge.
what is unlikable about kasich? i've always liked him, found him to be a pleasant person with good intentions.
no, i dont think he'll get much traction, but he should.
jindal's problem is lack of stage presence. he's as capable as the other governors, but not very good in the show biz aspect of the biz.
rubio is well-scripted.
Not to shock Brian, but agreed with more or less all he said, except for "enjoying" Trump. Yes, he makes it easier for Hilliary, but he's poison upon the body politic.
Kasich? What I can find is the assault weapons ban, which he supported while in Congress, as well as golfing with President Obama. He's seen as too accommodating by many, I think.
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