Wednesday, November 23, 2016

Get ready

I'm certain others have made this point before, but it's worth remembering -- as a practical matter, Democrats don't represent much any more other than municipalities. And that means it's going to get interesting for governmental entities at other levels:
Looking at the fiscal nightmares facing places like LA, which now spends 20 percent of its annual budget to cover pension liabilities, and Dallas, we wonder how much longer residents will be willing to live in nearly-insolvent cities. There’s a lot of talk these days about urban renewal, with greener waterfronts and hipster gentrification driving up real estate values and making previously-decrepit neighborhoods hot spots of culture. But today’s urban havens are built on a very unsteady foundation of blue city governance. At what point will the costs of maintaining today’s blue cities outweigh the appeal of what we might call “Brooklynization”? It’s not just rising housing prices that could drive people out; imagine the tax rates which could be necessary to pay off pension liabilities. Particularly for families looking to make an investment in real estate, cities may start to look much riskier.
This conflict is only going to get more contentious over time. And you will be forced to choose a side.


Gino said...

Expect stricter traffic enforcement as the budgets tighten. This will also lead to higher fines, more resentment and dead cops.

Bike Bubba said...

Good luck covering the gaps with traffic fines and such, though I'm sure that will happen. I am anticipating that at a certain point, state legislatures are going to cram down "splitting the difference" between stated pension obligations and reasonable tax revenues on cities. Mayors will bitch and moan, but at a certain point, the governor is going to say "you should have consulted with the actuaries and paid attention to what they said."

Anticipate a lot more of this as pension operators everywhere discover that they have been presuming on the future, and that the whole shebang is going kaputt.