The Ballad of Bilbo Bilbray

It's a beautiful day here in Twinstown. The sun always seems to shine a little brighter when conventional wisdom goes down the crapper. For the last few weeks, various media cheerleaders have been breathlessly anticipating a big victory for the Democratic candidate for California's 50th congressional district. The seat was the subject of a special election because the incumbent, Republican "Duke" Cunningham, has pleaded guilty to accepting bribes and assorted other corruption charges. The 50th District is in the San Diego area, which is fairly conservative by California standards, but there was much barely disguised hope that the seat would flip to the Democrats and candidate Francine Busby. The articles about how the race was a "harbinger" of the coming Republican collapse were likely already written, just waiting for the final numbers. Oh, happy days are here again!

Guess not, dudes. The Republican candidate, Brian Bilbray, won the election with just under 50% of the vote, to only 45% for Busby. What to make of all this?

1. It may not be as easy to nationalize this election as the D's think. Elections are still decided in large measure by local issues, and when Busby was caught on tape telling someone who may have been an "undocumented worker" that "you don't need papers to vote," that likely doomed her candidacy. San Diego is awfully close to the border and the people there aren't all that fond of aliens participating in elections.
2. Corruption per se won't be enough to push the D's across. We have all heard the mantra of Abramoff, Delay, etc., and in this case you had an actual incumbent with his hands in the cookie jar. My guess is that while Republicans control Congress today, many voters fully understand that Congressional corruption is not confined to one side of the aisle. Or one section of the freezer, for that matter.
3. Immigration will be an issue in 2006, but it's difficult to say how. Bilbray quickly pounced on Busby's remark and used it to leverage a victory. Still, it's not yet clear that there's a lot of support for a big fence at the border, or for trying to deport everyone who is here illegally.

Will 2006 turn out to be like 1994, where one party sweeps the other from power in Congress? Maybe, but I wouldn't count on it yet. I still say the Democrats need to have a coherent, saleable message to get over. And there's no evidence that they will be able to develop one in time. Not being Republicans won't likely be enough.