Tuesday, February 21, 2012

First Glance at Redistricting

So how did it turn out? A few very early thoughts:

  • Our area was 50B; it is now 41B. 50B, which was primarily New Brighton and Arden Hills, was split three ways. The north half of New Brighton is now in 41A, along with most of Fridley, while 41B is now the south half of New Brighton (essentially south of 694), St. Anthony and Columbia Heights. That means that Kate Knuth is no longer my representative and Carolyn Laine is. District 41 is, alas, pretty bluish.
  • Arden Hills is now in 42A, along with the north half of Shoreview and Mounds View. That is a more Republican area and will be good news for those folks. The other half of 42 is more interesting, as it comprises the south half of Shoreview, a portion of Roseville, Vadnais Heights and Little Canada. Should be a competitive area.
  • It appears that I remain in the 4th Congressional District, but barely. The fighting 4th has been a DFL stronghold forever, but the incumbent, Betty McCollum, cannot be happy with the way the lines were drawn. She needed to pick up some territory in the eastern metro and she now has Woodbury, Lake Elmo and Stillwater in her district. That's largely Republican territory and it means that her district is more suburban than urban. She can count on getting about 145% of the vote in St. Paul, which helps her cause, but she's going to have some work to do. One way to tell if Betty is nervous -- watch what she does concerning the proposed bridge over the St. Croix River south of Stillwater. She has noisily opposed the bridge for a long time, but now the residents of that area, who mostly support it, are going to be her constituents. She may need to do some fancy stepping on that issue.
  • Everyone on the left is chortling because, at this point, Michele Bachmann is in the 4th District and would have to run against McCollum if she stayed there. Bachmann would only have to move a few miles to run in the 6th and I fully expect she will. Too bad, because a Bachmann/McCollum race would be comedy gold. The new 6th is strongly conservative, by the way.
  • It looks like John Kline's heavily Republican 2nd district did cede some territory to the 1st, where DFLer Tim Walz was already getting nervous. At first glance, I think it could have been a lot worse for Walz, but we'll see.
Lots more to study on this.

10 comments:

Brad Carlson said...

Bachmann would only have to move a few miles to run in the 6th...

Thankfully that is NOT the case. One does not have to reside in the Congressional District which they represent. Therefore, Bachmann will continue to live in CD4 while running for Congress in CD6, which, as a resident in the Sixth, thrills me to no end.

Now for state politicians, they have until May to establish residency in the district which they will run.

By the way, do you know which former Packer once owned the house where the Bachmann family now resides?

Mr. D said...

I'll bet she eventually moves to the district, though. Wouldn't be tough to do.

I don't know the answer to that question, Brad. I'm going to guess either Jim Carter or Gale Gillingham, though.

Brad Carlson said...

That would be Ross Verba. Apparently the Bachmanns purchased the house via short sale.

Gino said...

thats brad: all the sports trivia you had to have. dont know how he does it.

Anonymous said...

I agree with Brad. I'd hate to see Bachmann leaving the House.

Rich

Brad Carlson said...

It appears that I remain in the 4th Congressional District, but barely.

You ain't kiddin', D. A block or two to the west and you're in Ellison's district. I bet you never thought you'd be in a position to rejoice in being represented by Betty Rubble, eh?

Night Writer said...

I'd like to see Bachmann run in the 4th if only because it would be impossible for McCollum to keep ducking debates against her like she (and Vento before her) did as a matter of course. Bachmann has too high a profile for Betty to act like there's no one else in the race. Michelle would force her onto the podium and then, good gawd, the feet would come flying out of her mouth.

It might not be enough to turn the election since McCollum's lack of deep thought and dependence on pre-digested talking points suits much of her constituency in the old 4th, but it would be fun to watch.

Mr. D said...

It might not be enough to turn the election since McCollum's lack of deep thought and dependence on pre-digested talking points suits much of her constituency in the old 4th, but it would be fun to watch.

Like I said -- comedy gold. It continues to astonish me that with all the other DFLers in the 4th, they can't find someone who's even a smidge more coherent than Betty.

CousinDan 54915 said...

DFL--that still makes me laugh. Do they corner the tin foil hat market in Minnesota like the Dems in WI have?

Mr. D said...

Do they corner the tin foil hat market in Minnesota like the Dems in WI have?

No, but only because they still wield substantial power here. Had Tom Emmer received a few more votes in the last election, St. Paul would have been a lot like Madison has been.