Election Day in Wisconsin

Finally, it's here. The day before Tom Barrett disappears from our television screens:

Two public opinion polls show Wisconsin Republican Governor Scott Walker with a lead of three and six percentage points heading into Tuesday's election to recall him because of a new law reducing the power of public sector unions.

Public Policy Polling, a Democratic polling firm, said Sunday that Walker was leading 50 percent to 47 percent over Democratic challenger Milwaukee Mayor Tom Barrett in its final survey. Angus Reid polling had Walker ahead 53 percent to 47 percent. Both findings were within the margin of error so the results could be even tighter.

Or not:

Those surprising results would project at a 56-44 final win for Walker. HOWEVER, while Walker continues to lead Barrett, we once again caution readers that this is an extremely difficult election to predict. 

That has to be the most cautious reading of a 12-point spread that I've ever seen. I think the best way to read the polls is this:  if you look at the Real Clear Politics average, you could throw out the 12-point spread that We Ask America came up with, and the 3-point spread that PPP delivered. That leaves an average margin of victory for Walker at about 6 percent. Which sounds about right.

I've thought Walker was going to win today for a long time now. The invaluable Kevin Binversie at Lakeshore Laments calls our attention to a Politico piece that serves as a reminder of just one problem the Democrats face:

For Democrats, who are admittedly playing catch-up in the final days of the Walker recall, education remains a big part of their get-out-the-vote effort. An unknown percentage of those who signed a recall petition back in late fall aren’t accustomed to voting regularly, let alone in the middle of the year.

“Definitely they need a reminder that that didn’t finish this, that they need to go to the polls,” said Heather Colburn, a Wisconsin-based Democratic consultant who served as state director for Hillary Clinton’s 2008 campaign.

Binversie makes the right point about all this:

If you’re still edu­cat­ing your vot­ers at this stage of the game, you have to won­der their level of ded­i­ca­tion to the cause.  We’ve been at each oth­ers throats now for 16 months thanks to Mike Tate’s inabil­ity to take a loss like a man, who the hell still needs edu­cat­ing on when and how to vote exactly?

But that rev­e­la­tion — that Democ­rats are still reach­ing out to peti­tion sign­ers just to remind them to vote — is pretty telling.  Both in who signed the peti­tion and those who the Democ­rats are hop­ing to help turn the tide tomorrow.

Yep. And I can tell you this -- based on what I've seen from my friends back home, the Walker supporters are significantly more motivated this time around. By the way, for those who aren't sure, Mike Tate is the chairman of the Democratic Party of Wisconsin, who is building a won/loss record in Wisconsin politics that rivals former Badger basketball coach Steve Yoder for futility.

If you live in Wisconsin, please vote today. Your nightmare will end after today, for approximately 17.4 minutes. Then you get to think about the Senate race. And if you're tired of the politics, be sure to thank Mike Tate.