not so sure, now. if the party comes together and gives their nominee a cheering squad and defense force (like parties are supposed to do) its a landslide.
but its looking to me like the bushes and romneys (et al) would rather kill the party that enriched them than see the party be without them. its not about anything idealogical, its about business. but they're hiding behind idealogy to fool their voters (which they do all the time, except this time its not working so well).
the GOP is at a crossroads. they can survive by relevantly fighting for the middle class (the 'working man', like the dems used to) or they can continue to collapse. my guess: they will collapse.
and socialism is just around the corner... Bernie is the future of the democrat party, and the future of the nation as well, because the GOP fathers (Bushes Romney's et al) would rather kill the nation give up a dollar of their own.
If you assume Trump wins every state that Romney did in '12, he still has a big electoral college gap to close. He could do it by winning California and Florida, but I don't think that's seriously going to happen.
At this point I also think Trump could lose Arizona and Texas. NC is definitely in play this year...we have a very competitive governor's race coming up and a Senate seat...the last time that happened was '08, and we went for Obama.
Trump would probably take the solid south (minus NC and VA, which aren't really part of it anyway anymore), ID, UT, WY, KS, NE, OK, MO. Maybe MT, AK, IN, and the Dakotas. That's a 396-142 landslide for the Dems.
I think the best case scenario for Cruz is to get exactly back to where Romney was in '12, and that's before taking into account that he would have been nominated at a contested convention and a lot of those Trump voters will likely walk.
i'm assuming Trump gets the industrial states that went Dem. MI, IL, OH, PA, NY, NJ... by appealing to the forgotten demographic. its whats happening now in the primaries.
Have you seen your candidate, Brian? Hillary Clinton winning Texas? She just went all in on open borders. Think that'll fly in Arizona?
I'm the first to admit there's an electoral college issue in a normal election, but this election is going to be a complete clown show. I also sense a black swan event will happen in this cycle.
i think anybody who intends to vote for Hillary gives up all rights to speak of Trump's character issues.
and open borders doesnt fly in NM, either. not even in IL. CA may be another issue, but it can be very close considering Hillary doesnt inspire voter turn out.
an issue CA has is depressed turnout among GOP leaners. its a complicated post for me to explain, but its real. CA is just a perfect storm away from going GOP. you cant say the same for TX going DNC.
We'll see. AZ and TX are far more complicated than either of you give them credit for being. TX in particular is getting younger, less, white, and more urban every year. It will be perennially blue by the mid 2020s, if not sooner.
Gino, I will speak of whatever I damn well please.
TX in particular is getting younger, less, white, and more urban every year. It will be perennially blue by the mid 2020s, if not sooner.
Younger people grow older, too. And younger people are going to resent the hell out of the money being hoovered out of their wallets for transfer payments to older people, especially by the 2020s, especially if they're simultaneously trying to pay off the student loans they can't discharge in bankruptcy. And I wouldn't take a Brezhnev Doctrine (what we have, we keep) approach towards Hispanics, either. I suspect Trump isn't helping things, but when the best Hispanic candidates on the Democratic side of the ledger are ciphers like the Castro brothers, I wouldn't take the gains you're predicting as a given.
Everyone's comparing this election to 1968. That's the wrong comparison. This is 1936 in Catalonia.
All I want is a contested convention. And if VD wants to threaten riots if he or Cruz is not chosen, then that is fine as he thinks too much of himself. Now, IF VD is the nominee, then there will be riots - but of course he will not cause them as he does not like violence. That is what he says anyway - on every other Tuesday during a full moon when the clock strikes 12.
To springboard off of Brad's point, it's Cruz or a blank ballot.
I simply can't stand Hillary, but the point of political parties to offer an actual contrast of vision and ideals. A Trump nomination undermines that as much as it would if the Democrats nominated a pro-life, tax-cutting, social conservative. I can't support a man whose values and policies shift move than a weathervane. Either being conservative or Republican means something or it doesn't.
I can understand if others feels differently, and who knows, maybe Trump runs such a "salt the earth" campaign against Hillary that I go against every logical and emotional instinct and vote for him. I doubt it.
14 comments:
Trump will be unelectable by the time his own party finishes killing itself by trying to kill him.
The other day you were saying 45 state landslide, Gino. Which is it?
not so sure, now. if the party comes together and gives their nominee a cheering squad and defense force (like parties are supposed to do) its a landslide.
but its looking to me like the bushes and romneys (et al) would rather kill the party that enriched them than see the party be without them. its not about anything idealogical, its about business. but they're hiding behind idealogy to fool their voters (which they do all the time, except this time its not working so well).
the GOP is at a crossroads. they can survive by relevantly fighting for the middle class (the 'working man', like the dems used to) or they can continue to collapse. my guess: they will collapse.
and socialism is just around the corner... Bernie is the future of the democrat party, and the future of the nation as well, because the GOP fathers (Bushes Romney's et al) would rather kill the nation give up a dollar of their own.
If you assume Trump wins every state that Romney did in '12, he still has a big electoral college gap to close. He could do it by winning California and Florida, but I don't think that's seriously going to happen.
At this point I also think Trump could lose Arizona and Texas. NC is definitely in play this year...we have a very competitive governor's race coming up and a Senate seat...the last time that happened was '08, and we went for Obama.
Trump would probably take the solid south (minus NC and VA, which aren't really part of it anyway anymore), ID, UT, WY, KS, NE, OK, MO. Maybe MT, AK, IN, and the Dakotas. That's a 396-142 landslide for the Dems.
I think the best case scenario for Cruz is to get exactly back to where Romney was in '12, and that's before taking into account that he would have been nominated at a contested convention and a lot of those Trump voters will likely walk.
i'm assuming Trump gets the industrial states that went Dem. MI, IL, OH, PA, NY, NJ... by appealing to the forgotten demographic. its whats happening now in the primaries.
Have you seen your candidate, Brian? Hillary Clinton winning Texas? She just went all in on open borders. Think that'll fly in Arizona?
I'm the first to admit there's an electoral college issue in a normal election, but this election is going to be a complete clown show. I also sense a black swan event will happen in this cycle.
i think anybody who intends to vote for Hillary gives up all rights to speak of Trump's character issues.
and open borders doesnt fly in NM, either. not even in IL. CA may be another issue, but it can be very close considering Hillary doesnt inspire voter turn out.
an issue CA has is depressed turnout among GOP leaners. its a complicated post for me to explain, but its real. CA is just a perfect storm away from going GOP. you cant say the same for TX going DNC.
We'll see. AZ and TX are far more complicated than either of you give them credit for being. TX in particular is getting younger, less, white, and more urban every year. It will be perennially blue by the mid 2020s, if not sooner.
Gino, I will speak of whatever I damn well please.
Go ahead, Brian. To Gino's point, though, the trick will be for you to keep a straight face as you do.
TX in particular is getting younger, less, white, and more urban every year. It will be perennially blue by the mid 2020s, if not sooner.
Younger people grow older, too. And younger people are going to resent the hell out of the money being hoovered out of their wallets for transfer payments to older people, especially by the 2020s, especially if they're simultaneously trying to pay off the student loans they can't discharge in bankruptcy. And I wouldn't take a Brezhnev Doctrine (what we have, we keep) approach towards Hispanics, either. I suspect Trump isn't helping things, but when the best Hispanic candidates on the Democratic side of the ledger are ciphers like the Castro brothers, I wouldn't take the gains you're predicting as a given.
Everyone's comparing this election to 1968. That's the wrong comparison. This is 1936 in Catalonia.
Trump or Cruz. That's the choice that's left.
Cruz, and it ain't close.
All I want is a contested convention. And if VD wants to threaten riots if he or Cruz is not chosen, then that is fine as he thinks too much of himself. Now, IF VD is the nominee, then there will be riots - but of course he will not cause them as he does not like violence. That is what he says anyway - on every other Tuesday during a full moon when the clock strikes 12.
To springboard off of Brad's point, it's Cruz or a blank ballot.
I simply can't stand Hillary, but the point of political parties to offer an actual contrast of vision and ideals. A Trump nomination undermines that as much as it would if the Democrats nominated a pro-life, tax-cutting, social conservative. I can't support a man whose values and policies shift move than a weathervane. Either being conservative or Republican means something or it doesn't.
I can understand if others feels differently, and who knows, maybe Trump runs such a "salt the earth" campaign against Hillary that I go against every logical and emotional instinct and vote for him. I doubt it.
Cruz is a problematic candidate, but he is far superior to anyone else.
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