Where is the race, really?

So, is the Humphrey Institute correct and Mark Dayton has it in the bag? Or is Survey USA correct and it's essentially a dead heat?

My guess is this: Dayton is leading, but his lead is soft. Very soft. The people who want to vote for Emmer really, really, really want to vote for Emmer. Aside from those who would directly benefit from a Dayton victory (AFSCME and Education Minnesota), there's only tepid support for Brave Sir Mark.

As is often the case, it comes down to the ground game.

The best thing Dayton has going for him right now is the timing of the election. Most people haven't received their insurance premium information for 2011 yet and don't really understand how much of a hit they are going to take because of the new Obamacare mandates. If they knew that, a big taxer like Dayton wouldn't get much more than 30% of the vote.

So if you are inclined to mark your ballot for Dayton, remember: we did warn you.