Wednesday, December 17, 2014

Hurricane Jeb

No, we don't need another Bush in the White House. Despite that, Jeb Bush is running:
Jeb Bush answered the biggest question looming over the Republican Party's next campaign for the White House on Tuesday, all but declaring his candidacy for president more than a year before the first primaries.

Bush, the son and brother of Republican presidents, is the first potential candidate to step this far into the 2016 contest, and his early announcement could deeply affect the race for the GOP nomination.

He is the early favorite of the GOP's establishment wing, and his move puts immediate pressure on other establishment-minded GOP contenders to start competing with him for donors, campaign staff and national attention.

The 61-year old former two-term governor of Florida declared on Facebook he would "actively explore the possibility of running for president of the United States."
Heck, he's not the only politician past his sell-by date considering run. Remember this guy?
Add George Pataki to the growing list of Republicans who are considering running for president in 2016.

The former, three-term New York governor told the New York Daily News in an interview published on Tuesday that he’s “very seriously” thinking about making a bid for the nation’s highest office.
Maybe we could get Jim Edgar in the race. After all, he's got excellent credentials in that he's one of the few recent Illinois governors who haven't gone to prison. Heck, if we really want to go old school, I suppose we could chat up Al Quie.

So why do we have all these retreads coming back? A few thoughts:

  • Jeb's case seems to be more about divine right than electoral necessity; still, he's going to be formidable if he runs because of his name and his connections.
  • Hillary Clinton is not a strong candidate. In fact, I'd be surprised if she's actually the Dem standard bearer in 2016.
  • Jeb's early move is designed to suck all the money and oxygen out the race, of course. If Jeb runs, it's going to be difficult for either Mitt Romney or Marco Rubio, Jeb's protege, to get in. I don't know that either of them would have won at this point, but they aren't likely to get past Jeb.
  • There's been an obvious disconnect between conservatives and Republicans that has only grown in recent years. While there can be significant overlap on certain issues, most of the current Republican leadership, especially on Capitol Hill, isn't interested in reforming Washington or cutting the size and scope of government. And their patrons, especially at the Chamber of Commerce, have no particular issue with the barriers to entry that the leviathan regulatory state provides to potential competitors. The Ohio River separates John Boehner and Mitch McConnell, but not much else does.
  • Can another candidate emerge? Certainly one will, but it's difficult to see who it would be at this early point. I could envision a number of Midwestern Republican governors getting in the race -- Scott Walker, John Kasich, or Mike Pence come to mind -- and certainly Rick Perry will take another bite of the apple. I also suspect that Rand Paul and potentially Ted Cruz might try to use their senatorial perches as a springboard into the race. There won't be any shortage of candidates, but there is a shortage of resources.

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