This just happened:
North Korea said Wednesday it had conducted a powerful hydrogen bomb test, a defiant and surprising move that, if confirmed, would be a huge jump in Pyongyang's quest to improve its still-limited nuclear arsenal.
A television anchor said in a typically propaganda-heavy statement that the North had tested a "miniaturized" hydrogen bomb, elevating the country's "nuclear might to the next level" and providing it with a weapon to defend against the United States and its other enemies.
Defend, you say? Nope. I don't think so. Whatever they did, it registered 5.1 on the Richter Scale:
In the first indication of a possible test, the U.S. Geological Survey measured an earthquake Wednesday morning with a magnitude of 5.1. An official from the Korea Metrological Administration, South Korea's weather agency, said the agency believed the earthquake was caused artificially, based on an analysis of the seismic waves and because it originated 49 kilometers (30 miles) north of Kilju, the northeastern area where North Korea's main nuclear test site is located. The country conducted all three previous atomic detonations there.
We can worry about chimerical gun show loopholes all day long, but it's a sideshow. Pay attention to what's happening in the center ring, please.
3 comments:
the good news is that whatever it was, they're saying it was about six kilotons. That's about a third of what Little Boy and Fat Man packed, and was less than their previous attempt at about 7kT.
It is strange, though, that the nuclear club doesn't get together and say to these guys: "try to deploy your kilotons over Seoul, and you'll find out what megatons do over Pyongyang and your army. You will have ten minutes from when our boomer launches to the end of your country. Got it?"
It is strange, though, that the nuclear club doesn't get together and say to these guys: "try to deploy your kilotons over Seoul, and you'll find out what megatons do over Pyongyang and your army. You will have ten minutes from when our boomer launches to the end of your country. Got it?"
If the DPRK wants to level Seoul, they can do it with conventional artillery. It's only 30 miles from the DMZ.
China dislikes the DPRK, but it dislikes the idea of US troops on its border more, which would surely happen were the regime to collapse or be destroyed. I wonder (though certainly don't claim to know) if removing the tens of thousands of US troops from the peninsula wouldn't change the game fundamentally, in favor of China doing more to bring the DPRK to heel. Even if it did (and it likely would) give the DPRK a major propaganda victory in the near term.
(To be clear: I don't blame US policy in the region for the insanity of the North Korean regime. They have that covered on their own. I just think the tripwire strategy has essentially frozen the conflict and boxed us out of any permanent solutions.)
Google that on the artillery; it's hotly debated how many artillery pieces actually can reach Seoul from North Korean soil (best estimates; less than 1000), and they might find life rather difficult if they concentrate on Seoul instead of rival artillery trying to take them out. Plus, when they shelled a 2 mile wide island at a range of about ten miles back in 2010, they didn't even hit the island nearly half the time, and when they did, the shells failed to explode 25% of the time.
Maybe we could say that Seoul will be safe from these terrorists as long as they're aiming at it? :^) I'm pretty sure Patton and Nimitz would never have tolerated that lack of accuracy back when they were working.
Point well taken on China, but I'm thinking the increasing detachment from reality is going to bring Beijing to our side of the table pretty soon if we play our cards right. They know we're not going to pick a fight with them with a ten thousand mile supply line.
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