Republican presidential front-runner Donald Trump abruptly announced here Tuesday that he would not participate in Thursday’s scheduled debate, escalating his off-and-on feud with Fox News Channel and throwing the GOP campaign into turmoil.Turmoil! Consternation! Trouble right here in River City!
I'm gonna be perfectly frank.
Would ya like to know what kinda conversation goes
On while they're loafin' around that Hall?
So the show is going on with The Donald. A few thoughts:
- Trump is assuming he's such a huge part of the show that no one will watch without him. Perhaps he's right, but I'm not so sure about that. The national polling suggests that, while he continues to have a plurality of votes on the Republican side, he hasn't closed the deal by any means. The highest numbers I've seen suggests that he gets 40%. That's not enough. And it's worth remembering that, once we get past Iowa and New Hampshire, many of the later primaries aren't open primaries, so rank and file Republicans will be doing the voting. I'm not convinced that these Republicans are inclined to support Trump. He still has to make that sale.
- The stated reason for Trump's decision is that Fox News will once again use Megyn Kelly as a debate moderator. Trump and Kelly had a nasty dustup following an earlier debate. Kelly does ask tough questions and she does have a pretty good sneer going on. Trump thinks Kelly is not fair to him. Well, hell -- if anyone understands that the world is not fair, it ought to be Donald Trump. Fox also understands that if it were to dump Kelly at this point, it would be a complete capitulation. The network had to stand behind Kelly. It was the right move.
- If Fox is smart, they'll borrow Clint Eastwood's empty chair and put it where Trump was supposed to be.
- Of course, the other candidates are happy, because they get a chance to address the country without having The Donald on the stage. Jeb Bush alone is likely to avoid half the flop sweat we've seen in earlier skirmishes.
- The candidate I want to see is Rand Paul, who is back on the main stage after missing the last debate. He should have more room to maneuver and he could be a big factor.
For another take, check out Brad Carlson's piece this morning.
13 comments:
The highest numbers I've seen suggests that he gets 40%.
thats more than enough. think back: what was mccain pulling in 08 when romney jumped out? much less, he wasnt well liked at all by the GOP.
Right — no one liked McCain in '08, except the primary voters. Are the sorts of people who were willing to pull the lever for McCain in '08 going to pull the lever for Trump? I'm not sure.
You know what would be really interesting? If Trump continues to poll well, but primary voters choose someone else, say Rubio. And then, to add to the drama, Rubio loses the general election.
This first part would seem like a win for the establishment, but it would actually be a colossal loss. Actually, it might still be a loss even if "Rubio" won the general and governed as a typical Republican.
Here's a theory: There has been a loss of trust in various institutions over the past generation. When those institutions that have lost legitimacy continue to exert power, they accelerate their decline.
yes. those voters were not idealogues, but were attracted to his political celebrity, much of it based on his renegade reputation.
enough of them will pull for trump.
what will be interesting to see is how trump's success changes the model for future presidential campaigns. of course, he could jump the shark, but every time i think he may have, his numbers go up.
I think this will hurt Trump badly. Talking point: "If you can't handle Megyn Kelly, God help you when you're face to face with Vladimir Putin or Hafez Assad. Or, for that matter, Hilliary Clinton."
I personally think that, given his conversation with Bill, Trump is a plant to poison the race. Can't prove it, but that is my hunch.
Hafez Assad
If The Donald is face to face with Hafez Assad, he's got more trouble than he knows.
But I take your point, Bubba.
This will be an interesting data point on the question of whether debates matter.
My intuition is that the typical debate viewer is not up for grabs...they've already picked a horse and are watching to see what happens. Debates are even promoted in the style of sporting events nowadays (which elevates them far too much, I think).
At any rate, Trump has once again succeeded in making himself the center of the story.
My intuition is that the typical debate viewer is not up for grabs...they've already picked a horse and are watching to see what happens. Debates are even promoted in the style of sporting events nowadays (which elevates them far too much, I think).
You may be right about that. I have preferences, but no pick, at this point.
OK, Bashar! :^) (dang, I'm getting old)
Brian's point is well taken, but it strikes me that voters, like sports fans, are notoriously fickle. And a relentless mocking "if he can't face a pretty woman like Megyn...." will leave a mark along those lines.
I dunno, Bubba. From what I see, the Cult of Trump is getting as bad as what formed around The One back in '08. I don't see a lot of fickle Trump fans. We'll see.
There is a bit of a difference. The Cult of The One had the media heads moistening themselves... the Trump Cult has them dirtying themselved
Trump doesn't have the 4th estate covering for him. Let the mocking begin, and continue, and I'm guessing he folds like a house of cards.
Put another way: if Trump is the schoolyard bully I think he is (and having been bullied myself as a kid, I think I've got a decent feel for this), I want him to have his comeuppance at the hands of someone who does NOT have his fingers on the nuclear trigger for obvious reasons.
And yes, I'm praying that the current Schoolyard Bully in Chief doesn't get that nasty of a comeuppance, either.
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