Well, the DFL Does Believe in Recycling. . . .

We're often lectured to by our DFL betters about the importance of sustainability and recycling to protect the environment. Lately we've been getting some mixed messages on that front. Voters in 50B recently received a bunch of mailings from the DFL, some extolling the virtues of Kate Knuth, and others attacking challenger Lori Grivna. We can assume that the DFL has no compunction about killing trees (apparently, they deserved to die), but the recycling comes in when it involves the attacks. The ever-sagacious Thrifty Scot over at Boots On has the skinny, so I won't belabor the point. Let's put it this way -- the attack was a lie two years ago and it hasn't become true since then. Nor, might I add, has the DFL become more honest.

Lori Grivna has served the residents of this area well as a member of the school board. She won't raise your taxes by billions of dollars or spend your hard-earned dollars on boondoggles, as Kate Knuth already has. Lori deserves your support.

Online Predators

It's an unfortunate reality of the digital age - young people who have Facebook accounts are often the target of online predators, who trade in the trusting nature of youth and attempt to use that trust for their own perverted purposes. It's important that we share these sorts of stories so we can prevent something tragic from happening.

The story begins this way: a 16-year-old girl gets an unexpected note. The note inquires about a girl who might attend the same school. The writer wants to know more about this other girl and, oddly, about her relationship with her mother. The reasons? Well, let the note speak for itself:

I saw on facebook that you went to Xavier, and if you don’t mind, I’d love to ask you some advice about a story. I’m a reporter at the New York Times, writing a profile of Cindy McCain, and we are trying to get a sense of what she is like as a mother. So I’m reaching out to fellow parents at her kids’ schools. My understanding is that some of her older kids went to Brophy/Xavier, but I’m trying to figure out what school her 16 year old daughter Bridget attends– and a few people said it was PCDS. Do you know if that’s right? Again, we’re not really reporting on the kids, just seeking some fellow parents who can talk about what Mrs. McCain is like.

Also, if you know anyone else who I should talk to– basically anyone who has encountered Mrs. McCain and might be able to share impressions– that would be great.

Thanks so much for any help you can give me.

Jodi Kantor
Political correspondent
New York Times

Not too suprisingly, the note came to the attention of the McCain campaign, which released its contents. The McCains indeed do have a daughter named Bridget. She is the girl that the McCains adopted from Bangladesh. It's a well-known story.

Where to begin on something like this? Let's just list off a few of the pieties we've heard in recent years about families of politicians should be treated. The Clintons famously asked that their daughter Chelsea be kept off-limits from scrutiny. It was a reasonable request and the MSM largely respected it. The Obamas have asked that their daughters be free from scrutiny as well, also a reasonable request and the MSM has complied. Barack Obama has asked that his wife be kept off-limits, a more problematic request since she is an integral part of his campaign, but coverage of her has been limited. I am glad that the MSM has chosen to respect the privacy of Chelsea Clinton and the two Obama daughters.

What would be nice is if the same courtesy were to apply to both sides. Clearly, that is not the case. The piece that Kantor was working on ran in today's edition of the Times. It's a remarkably catty piece that doesn't seek to illuminate as much as to diminish. It would be unthinkable that the Times would publish anything remotely as critical of Michelle Obama or Jill Biden. You can even see the hole that Kantor was trying to fill in the story:

Some of Mr. McCain’s Washington friends say they have barely met Mrs. McCain, while fellow mothers at their children’s schools say they have little sense of her husband.

That may or may not be true. It may not even be relevant. But as this campaign continues, more and more people are getting a sense of people like Jodi Kantor.

(H/T: Ed Morrissey)

Cross-posted at True North

These Boots Are Made For Walkin'

Just a reminder: if you don't regularly read my friends at BootsOn, you need to. They have several excellent posts up right now over at their place. Just click that link and keep scrolling.

Levi Stubbs, RIP

It's been a tough year for Motown fans. We lost Norman Whitfield a while back and today comes word that one of the greatest voices from Motown's glory days, Levi Stubbs, has died. The Tops weren't as consistent as the Temptations, as innovative as Smokey Robinson or as touched by genius as Marvin Gaye or Stevie Wonder. But when they hit a song on the nose, they were awesome.

And never more awesome than in this smash from 1966, one of my all-time favorite songs.

Reach Out I'll Be There

Rest in peace, Levi.

Guilty Pleasures Part Thirty - Joe the Plumber Edition

Let's give all those Average Joes a little love. In honor of our favorite Ohio plumber, select from the following:

Jimi Hendrix singing Hey Joe at Monterey and likey infuriating 4 out of 5 dentists surveyed by playing guitar with his teeth - my daughter Maria suggests that perhaps Jimi was just flossing?

Simon and Garfunkel discussing the departure of Joltin' Joe in the context of their classic Mrs. Robinson, here rendered in Central Park in 1981.

I apologize in advance for this, but you had to see it coming. Next, in honor of the shabby treatment that JtP has received today, we break out one of the all-time bad ones. Yes, it's the immortal David Geddes performing with cheeseball splendor the horrifying earworm Run Joey Run.

Then, we have Roger Daltrey covering a song by, of all people, Murray Head of "One Night in Bangkok" fame. Yep, it's time to implore: Say It Ain't So, Joe

And we'll wrap it up with Boz Scaggs from 1980 with one of his last big hits -- Jojo.

Pick your favorite Joe!

Who Will Rid Me of this Troublesome Plumber?

I wrote a brief midday piece about the trashing of Joe "the Plumber" Wurzelbacher earlier today, but what has happened since is really pretty sickening. This gloating article from National Journal is pretty typical of the whirlwind that this guy has been reaping ever since his question to Barack Obama got airplay.

Obama showed his class by piling on, as this video shows. Click the link before it disappears and listen to the contempt in Obama's voice as he says "plumber."

The invaluable Ed Morrissey pretty much sums it up over at Hot Air:

Now, we have people crawling over his tax records, his voter registration, his professional licensing, and whatever else they can find in the public record. Someone has linked him to the long-deceased Charles Keating, suggesting that somehow Obama managed to pick a McCain plant out of a ropeline full of people by accident. How much longer before a certain blogger at The Atlantic demands a paternity test to see if Joe the Plumber fathered Sarah Palin’s baby — or Bristol’s, for that matter?

The guy just asked Obama a question, for goodness sakes. He surely didn't expect that Obama's answer would be as controversial as it was. He didn't ask for his situation to come up in the debate. He is just a guy who works in the plumbing business in Ohio. Whether he's a fully credentialed plumber is beside the point. What matters is that he asked the leading presidential candidate a pretty simple question. If you watch the video, you'll see that he wasn't combative. He wasn't rude, nor was he threatening to Obama in any way. He's just a face in the crowd.

The good news is that the shabby treatment he's received today will probably mean that some wealthy conservative will hook him up with a better gig than what he has now. In a way, it's about as good as winning the lotto. So in the end he'll be fine.

But the question remains -- why would so many people fall on a guy like Joe Wurzelbacher like jackals? There is something uniquely disturbing about this incident, something far more disturbing than what happened to Sarah Palin and her family after she was nominated for the Vice Presidency. Sarah Palin willingly stepped into the arena. Whether she and her family deserved the beating they took, they had reason to know it would happen. Joe the Plumber didn't ask for this. He just asked a question and now he gets to stand naked in the public square for his troubles.

I'm not sure what is worse -- that Obama doesn't seem to have any sympathy for this guy, or that so many people were so eager to rid him of this troublesome plumber. There's a real moral sickness on display here and Senator Obama would do well to address it. And if he won't, I sincerely hope the voters will address it for him on November 4.

Doing Oppo on Joe the Plumber

While I remain pessimistic about the election, there is a chance that Obama and his people could still screw the pooch. How? Well, one way is by sliming someone like Joe the Plumber. Obama and his flying monkeys aren’t very nice people, but most voters don’t understand that. If they do gratuitous things like attack a guy no one heard of a few days ago, we might see an epiphany or two from some of those who are under the spell of The One.

Game, Set, Match

In a different world, John McCain might have had a chance. But in the world we live in, tonight was probably the last chance he had to turn things around in his campaign for the Presidency. From where I sit, he didn't get it done. A few observations:

• One of my favorite moments of the debate was a Freudian slip that McCain made, where he inadvertently (or not?) called Barack Obama "Senator Government." If he'd meant it, it would have been apt and even witty. But wit has been the one thing that McCain has lacked throughout this campaign. And when I say wit I mean being ingenious, clever, sagacious -- pick your term. McCain just seems like a plodder when he shares a stage with Obama. And it hurts him.


• Moderator Bob Schieffer was not a factor at all. That means he was effective.


• Obama was running the four corners tonight and was pretty much able to get by with it. He said a few things that were demonstrably wrong -- his claim that McCain has run 100% negative ads is ridiculous, and his assertion that he can save the average family $2500 in health insurance doesn't stand up to scrutiny, nor does his repeated assertion that he will provide tax cuts to 95% of Americans. He may give refunds to people, but those refunds will be something akin to the Earned Income Tax Credit, because as many as 40% of Americans do not actually pay income tax. Income taxes are withheld, of course, but a lot of Americans have sufficient tax credits that the entirety of the amount is refunded. But try explaining that in a 30-second ad.


• Joe the Plumber apparently is a hell of a guy. He must be, because he was the focus of a good portion of the debate and both candidates were pandering like hell for his vote. Joe probably understands that he'll lose out under Obama's plan, but he isn't saying who he'll vote for. Good for him, by the way. And I do hope that he enjoys his 15 minutes of fame. Someday he'll be on a Trivial Pursuit card, right after the one for Quemoy and Matsu.


• It was probably six months too late, but it was about time that McCain said what he did about George W. Bush, especially saying that if Obama wanted to run against Bush, he should have done so four years ago. I don't think it will help McCain at this late hour, but Obama deeply deserved that particular rebuke.


• The one avenue of attack on Obama that I have been waiting for McCain to make almost came up today, but he didn't follow up. Early on, McCain challenged Obama to name one time that he had bucked his party's leadership. Obama essentially sidestepped the question and that was the end of it. But the question that McCain really ought to be asking for the remainder of the campaign is this: what has Obama ever really accomplished? I asked this question a while back in a long comment thread regarding the Palin-Biden debate and my one of my portside posters submitted a list of eight rather pedestrian achievements, including writing a bill in the Illinois Senate that passed 58-0 (a real profile in courage, that) and another about the time that Obama took a public AIDS test in Africa to show people there that they don't need to fear testing. What's become increasingly clear is the disconnect between the faith that a lot of voters have in Obama's rhetoric and the actual record of accomplishment that he has produced. His career as the junior senator from Illinois is remarkably undistinguished: Amy Klobuchar has done more in two years than Obama has in four and no one would suggest that she should be President. But McCain has never made this case effectively. Truth be told, he hasn't really tried.

Unless there's some sort of deus ex machina in the next three weeks, Obama is going to become President of the United States. There is a fair amount of smoke coming from the ongoing revelations about ACORN (and a RICO suit would focus the issue nicely) and there's a chance that Tony Rezko could still cause Obama some heartburn, but none of that will come out until after the election, because Patrick Fitzgerald isn't Lawrence Walsh. Besides, my guess is that Fitzgerald is really after Mayor Daley, not Obama. Let's put it this way: Obama had better be as good as my portside friends think he is, because he will inherit a real mess. If it turns out that Obama is an empty suit, God help us.

Fearless Dilettante Football Predictions – Hang Down Your Head Tom Dooher Edition

Since Education Minnesota essentially controls the calendar in the month of October, I’m putting out a few picks now because of games that will be played this evening.

Hopkins Royals 42, Irondale Knights 35. An interesting non-conference game for the Knights, who face an explosive Hopkins squad. The game is at Hopkins, so I expect the Royals to prevail, but Irondale has been awfully good.

ACTUAL RESULT: HOPKINS 42, IRONDALE 24. Hopkins is really good, especially on their home field. That Classic Lake is a bizarre league - only 5 teams and 4 of them (Hopkins, Edina, Minnetonka and Wayzata) might be Top 10 caliber.

Cretin-Derham Hall Raiders 24, Mounds View Mustangs 14. Cretin is the reigning royalty in the Suburban East and is, as usual, loaded. The Mustangs have played very well since an opening loss to an excellent Woodbury team, but this is a real step up in class.

ACTUAL RESULT: CDH 33, MOUNDS VIEW 0. I'm guessing CDH will play for the championship this time around - Wayzata and Eden Prairie would be the other favorites. Meanwhile, Mounds View waits to see if it will be a 1 or 2 seed in its sectional. Whatever MV is, Irondale should be the other.

Waupaca Comets 24, Xavier Hawks 17. Just a hunch that the Hawks won't have enough against the league bully. Hope I'm wrong!

ACTUAL RESULT: WAUPACA 34, XAVIER 0. Guess they didn't. Next week it's hated Omro.

Beloit College Bucs 27, Illinois College Blueboys 17. Yes Virginia, the Blueboys. The term comes from the Civil War. The nickname for the Illinois College womens' teams is infinitely cooler: they are the Lady Blues. This is a team my beloved Buccos should beat, especially at home.

ACTUAL RESULT: IC 58, BELOIT 42. Ya see, to win football games, there's this thing called defense. Winning teams play it.

Wisconsin Badgers 24, Iowa Hawkeyes 14. Who knows about the Badgers any more? The last three weeks have been bad, worse and then catastrophic. Iowa City is usually a tough port of call for Bucky, but this year's Hawkeye squad just might be the one to get Kirk Ferentz fired.

ACTUAL RESULT: IOWA 38, BAD-GERS 16. Brett Bielema has a call in to Don Morton, asking about where he rented that coffin for his coaches' show. I don't think I've ever seen a season go off the rails this badly. Every other team in the Big 10 is playing some version of the spread offense. What do they know that the Badgers don't?

Gophers have a bye, so let's pick this game:

Mount Union Purple Raiders 74, Heidelberg Student Princes 0. Any school whose nickname is Student Princes deserves to get their butts beat. And perennial D-III power Mount Union is just the team to do it. No word on who the Amherst Lord Jeffs are playing, by the way.

ACTUAL RESULT: MOUNT UNION 49, HEIDELBERG 0. Not much else to say -- gotta love that D-III Ohio football.

Green Bay Packers 27, Indianapolis Colts 24. Probably being too optimistic on this, but it's my blog.

ACTUAL RESULT: PACKERS 34, COLTS 14. The most satisfying game of the year so far, by some measure. And now Aaron Rodgers gets a bye to rest that shoulder and get ready for a tough second half of the season.

Chicago "Focus of Evil in the Modern World" Bears 7, Purple Helmeted Love Warriors 2. Figure that Kyle Orton will be so busy stroking his porn star moustache that he'll inadvertently step out of the endzone like that guy for the Lions did last week. There's no reason to presume that the Viking offense will score in Soldier Field.

ACTUAL RESULT: BEARS 48, VIKINGS 41. I don't think I've ever been more wrong on a pick. The Vikings give up 48 points to da Bears? How's that Jared Allen thing workin' out for ya there, Purple fans?

A Moment of Clarity

It's been an interesting few weeks on the starboard side. Even though the election is still 3 weeks away, the long knives have been out and we've seen something of a schism develop regarding the state of conservatism.





The flashpoint of this debate has been the nomination of Sarah Palin as John McCain's running mate. Gov. Palin is an outsider; hell, you don't get much more outsider than a moose hunting governor with a Marge Gunderson accent. The credentialed, establishment East Coast commentariat, conservative division, does not like Gov. Palin. She's been reviled by Kathleen Parker, David Brooks, George Will, Peggy Noonan and now, most notably, Christopher Buckley. I would imagine there are others, too. Buckley has even come out publicly for Barack Obama and subsequently resigned from his father's beloved National Review, a resignation that was quickly accepted.





All of these individuals share common traits. They are all denizens of the eastern media nexus and they all spend a lot of time hobnobbing with people who share an animus toward people like Palin. They live in a world where verbal ability (being glib, really) is the coin of the realm. Some, most notably Will, have a long-standing animus against John McCain. And the world where they live is quite inhospitable to upstarts from the hinterlands.





From my perch in the Midwest, it's an odd thing to watch. I admire Sarah Palin a great deal and think that when the election is over, she will come out of the aftermath well positioned for another run at national office. The complaint you hear is that she is absurdly unqualified for the position, a view that was set in amber following substandard performances in the nationally televised pop quizzes that she took from Charlie Gibson and Katie Couric. Yet, strangely, she has become a sensation out on the hustings, drawing far more enthusiastic crowds than McCain does. It must mean something.





My suspicion is this: the nation has twice tried to send outsiders to Washington to clean things up, only to find that Washington spits out the outsiders utterly transformed. Bill Clinton ran as a reformer and part of a new breed of politician, avatar of his Baby Boom generation. George W. Bush ran as a prodigal son, returning from the wilds of Texas. Clinton left as a quintessential insider, while Bush is leaving essentially unloved in any quarter, a traitor to his class and a disappointment to his followers. Barack Obama is yet another putative outsider, but with a fully Washingtonized sheen. He hasn't been in Washington long enough to do much of anything in the Senate, but that reality hasn't seemed to hurt him thus far. Obama's cynicism and careerism don't particularly bother world-weary people like Will, Parker, Brooks, Noonan and Buckley. He's utterly recognizable and seems safer, more reasonable than someone like Palin, who doesn't necessarily know which fork to use. McCain should haven known better than to bring a ruffian to the party.

Palin is popular among the Republican base precisely because she's not part of the nexus. She's something totally unexpected - a frontier woman who shares the moral code of a certain type of man. She may sound like Marge Gunderson, but her personality and approach is something different -- fearless, unsentimental and lacking deference to the social constructs that govern polite society. Palin is not impressed with what she's seen so far and that's particularly troublesome to pundits who are themselves viewed with suspicion among their social betters. That's why Parker talks about cringing when she hears Palin speak.

The question for conservatives at this point is this: do you accept the worldview of the Parkers and Wills of the world, or do you look at Palin as only the first of a new wave of Republican leaders? The irony that Barack Obama will face if he wins is this: he may be an attractive new face, but the apparatus of the Democratic Party is ashen and hidebound in ways that will hurt him. He'll have to share the podium with Joe Biden, Nancy Pelosi and Harry Reid, with people like John Murtha, Steny Hoyer and Christopher Dodd in the background. These are the people that George Will has known for his many years in Washington. These are the folks who will likely take the reins of power in 2009. Many of the people pulling the lever for Obama will be quite surprised to see that their votes will enable an elderly generation of insiders.





It may go badly for the Republican Party three weeks from tonight. Perhaps Christopher Buckley will enjoy his sinecure on the Obama bandwagon. What I suspect we are learning is this: the future of the Republican Party may begin on November 5. And it's considerably more likely that the standard-bearer for that future will be from Wasilla (or Baton Rouge or perhaps St. Paul) than from Bethesda or Westchester County.

Fight the Power Part Two -- House District 50B

In an election cycle where big government seems to be in the saddle, it's important for conservatives to look at first principles. While it's easy to pay attention the big show taking place in Washington, what happens in St. Paul will likely have a greater impact on how you live your life each day. The previous legislative session was eventful in ways that most conservatives would find distressing. A huge tax increase of over $6 billion was essentially rammed down the throats of Minnesotans when the legislature was able to override Gov. Pawlenty's veto.

There's a strong chance that the Minnesota House will remain in DFL hands after this cycle, which means that there is also a strong chance that Speaker Kelliher and her minions will be back looking for more next year. The current incumbent in District 50B, Kate Knuth, will support whatever Speaker Kelliher wants.

Perhaps the voters of 50B are okay with that. Perhaps the new taxes that 50B will pay to fund a train that most 50B residents will never use are just part of the cost of doing business with the leviathan state. Maybe some day the DFL will deign to throw 50B a bone. And perhaps the residents of 50B are eager to accept broad increases in environmental regulation of the sort that Kate Knuth endorses.

But there's a better alternative. Instead, the residents of 50B can send Lori Grivna, a proven, conservative leader to St. Paul to represent our interests. Lori has a distinguished record serving the residents of 50B as a member of the Mounds View School Board and as a legislative consultant. She has been an observer and participant at all levels of local government and has positive working relationships with representatives at the municipal, county and state level. She will not be a foot soldier; rather she will be able to make a positive difference in St. Paul from the first day in office.

But more importantly, Lori Grivna understands conservative first principles, especially where fiscal discipline is concerned. Lori will ask tough questions and demand accountability from government. She understands the impact that taxation and regulation have on local businesses and the citizenry in general. Unlike her opponent, she has spent the majority of her career working in the private sector and brings an understanding of the real world effects of government depredations. Kate Knuth is very young and has not ventured outside of the world of academe in her brief career, which has meant that she doesn't quite understand the impact of her decisions on working families. Lori Grivna and her husband Wally have a made a life together and Lori understands what's at stake.

To that end, Lori will cast a cold eye on the current process. She won't simply accept baseline budgeting that keeps a permanent upward ratchet on budgets and expenditures. She'll challenge programs that have outlived their useful life. And most importantly, she'll not impose one-size-fits-all solutions to education, transportation and energy issues.

District 50B isn't a gilded precinct. Citizens in our area work hard and are productive citizens. They understand the value of a dollar and effort needed to earn one. Lori Grivna understands these things, too. She will ensure that the dollars the citizens of 50B send to St. Paul are used wisely. She richly deserves your support.

Cross-posted at True North

Fight the Power Part One -- 4th CD

John McCain has declared a rhetorical cease-fire and Norm Coleman has decided that he's going to try to play nice against the most loathsome opponent a politician could ever hope to have. If you wonder why conservatives are angry, it's because of stuff like that. So what to do?

Anger is understandable, but it has its limitatations. The better alternative is to spend time on campaigns for conservatives who are willing to fight, who aren't afraid to call their opponents out, who understand the real danger inherent in a complete governmental takeover by the Party of Government. For the next few days, we'll turn our attention back to people who are willing to fight.

In a year where the Democrats are riding high, not many people would expect a candidate running against an incumbent DFLer for a seat that has been in DFL hands for over 60 years to win. But in the 4th Congressional District, the Republicans are running the best candidate they've had for a long time. After chasing Betty McCollum for months, Ed Matthews finally gets to share a stage with the incumbent. The occasion is a "candidate forum" at Hamline University that takes place tomorow night, Monday, October 13. The event, sponsored by the theoretically non-partisan League of Women Voters, takes place at the Klas Center on the Hamline University campus at 7 p.m. The Hamline campus is just south of Pierce Butler Route on Snelling Avenue in the Midway district of St. Paul and the Klas Center itself is part of the athletic complex at Hamline.

Here is the key - all questions will come from the audience. Betty McCollum has done pretty well for the last eight years because (a) she has the right three letters after her name and (b) she's been able to avoid any real scrutiny. As a practical matter, McCollum is simply a foot soldier in the Pelosi army. Her only real distinction is the shrillness of her rhetoric, which has at times been audible only to domesticated animals. Her reputation as a leader is obvious by the noticeable lack of buzz surrounding her career. Ordinarily a 4-term congresswoman would be on the short list for potential higher office; say, for example, running for Governor in 2010. When a person like the disgraced Matt Entenza is on the short list and McCollum is not, it speaks volumes about the esteem with which Betty McCollum is held in her own caucus.

If Ed is able to get some of his supporters to attend the event and ask Rep. McCollum some questions beyond the usual NPR-style boilerplate, she can be exposed. Ed is a very sharp fellow with absolute mastery of the issues and excellent stage presence; he'll command respect that previous McCollum opponents have not been able to get. Ed Matthews isn't running as a sacrificial lamb - he's in it to win.

If you can get to Hamline tomorrow night, please do so. Almost all the local media attention for congressional races in this cycle has gone to the scurrilous campaign that Aswin Madia and his bobos have run against Erik Paulsen for the open seat in the 3rd CD, so a strong, visible showing by Ed Matthews would give the chattering classes something else to talk about for the next 3 weeks.

Cross-posted at True North

Camp

Young Ben is at the Boy Scout Camporee in Cannon Falls today and I'm driving down to join him this afternoon. Mrs. D and Maria will be bachleloretting it tonight, although a steady stream of Maria's 3rd grade pals seem to be arriving on an hourly basis. Ah, testosterone! Back tomorrow.

Good Will Punting

So Norm Coleman forswears negative campaigning. How does Al Franken's campaign respond? Take it away, Andy Barr:

It's like an arsonist burning down every house in the village and then asking to be named fire chief.

Stay classy.

Blessed Are the Peacemakers

For they shall inherit the earth. They aren't likely to run the government, though.

I don't know if the Republicans raised the white flag yesterday, but you could make that argument based on comportment of the gentle, gentle gentlemen at the top of the ticket this year. John McCain was in Lakeville yesterday and he basically shut down some of his supporters who were calling for him to attack Barack Obama. At one point he was even booed when he spoke well of the junior senator from Illinois.

Meanwhile, Norm Coleman has announced that he will stop running negative ads against Al Franken. Over half of Coleman's negative ads have consisted of showing footage of Franken in full rant mode, swearing, swaggering, cursing and acting like a low-rent thug. But recent polls suggest that showing Franken in his own words doesn't seem to hurt Franken as much as it does Coleman. Franken will of course continue to run his scurrilities.

Perhaps the internal polling that the campaigns are doing is saying something that's not immediately apparent, but it seems passing strange to start playing Mr. Nice Guy at this late hour. People always say that they hate negative advertising, but it inevitably works. That's why it is done in every election cycle. It's why Franken may win and why a nothingburger like Aswin Madia has a good chance of taking the open 3rd CD seat away. Madia and his surrogates have run an especially appalling campaign against opponent Erik Paulsen that has been pretty much 100% false. And his reward may very well be a seat in Congress. Madia is apparently Change You Can Believe In. To his credit, Paulsen has been fighting back, but the damage may have been done.

It's possible that McCain and Coleman may be rewarded for taking the high road from here on out. But I'd be very surprised.

A Premonition Explained

Most of us haven't lived through a panic before. It's been nearly 80 years since the Crash of 1929 and the actors who brought us that particular drama been gone for a long time. You don't always notice it as it's happening to you, but I'd be willing to wager that the past 2-3 weeks will turn out to be one of the most momentous periods in the history of this nation.

Back in February I wrote this post. I used Carole King's song "It's Too Late" as a jumping off point to talk about something I couldn't quite explain. I had a sense that something pretty big was up, but I wasn't sure what it was. Here is what I wrote back then:

So here's my weird thought - I hear the song and it makes me think of what's happening right now, and not only in this election cycle. I've done my fair share of alternately mocking and cringing at the Obama campaign in recent days. But it's becoming increasingly evident that there's something else in the air, something that's only tangentially related to Obama, his campaign or even what his adminstration would look like should he ultimately prevail in November. I'm not sure what's happening, but whatever is happening is bigger and more momentous than all that. My sense is that there are forces at play right now that are a lot more powerful than anything else that we've experienced in my lifetime. I think that the next 4-8 years are going to be transformative regardless of the occupant of the Oval Office. Something very new and potentially quite strange is on the horizon. I'm not worried or fearful about it, because there's no use in worrying about things you cannot control. But my sense is that we're in for a hell of a ride, and soon.

What's happened, it would seem, is a panic that stems from a systemic crisis of confidence in many institutions, but primarily the financial industry and the government. We have seen a Treasury Secretary who has feet very much in both worlds essentially demand that the taxpayers save Wall Street. The apparatus of government has complied. And the markets have sent an unmistakable message about the efficacy this unprecedented government intervention, with one of the largest drops in the Dow Jones average in history.

And what now seems likely to happen is that the American people are going to turn the government over to the Party of Government. Barring something really unforeseen, John McCain is not going to win the election. There's an excellent chance that he might lose in an electoral landslide. And at a time where we need an experienced hand at the tiller, it looks likely that we will be sending an inexperienced product of the Chicago political machine to become Leader of the Free World. It also appears quite possible that the citizens of this state are prepared to toss aside a reasonable senator for a guy who began his political career by writing ad hominem screeds.

It's possible that this may turn out well. My social betters in the East Coast commentariat have lately been trying to reassure us that the Senator from ACORN has a first-class intellect and a first-class temperament, and that Obama surely won't do what it would seem he plans to do, because if he did, "he will almost certainly reap a whirlwind that will make Katrina look like a balmy summer zephyr."

Just a guess - if this doesn't turn out well, Barack Obama won't be the only one reaping a whirlwind.

Cross-posted at True North

The Lake Winnebago Election

I grew up not far from Lake Winnebago, the largest lake entirely within the borders of Wisconsin. Lake Winnebago is an odd lake, because while it has a vast surface area (almost 138,000 acres) it doesn't really hold that much water. It may be 30 miles from north to south and 10 miles from east to west, but the maximum depth of the lake is only 21 feet and much of the lake is no more than 8-9 feet deep. There are places where you can walk out into the lake for a half mile or more and the water is only four or five feet high.

I've been thinking that this election is a lot like Lake Winnebago. It appears that the advantage the Democrats have is pretty wide, but my sense is the depth of support is pretty small. Aside from the true believers, many people who are considering voting for Obama aren't really sure it's the right thing to do. As I've been watching things this week, and as I've talked to people I know, I've sensed that Obama's support could yet fade.

The problem that the McCain campaign is having is that there is no one defining matter that would reach enough people to turn the campaign. Should the campaign be talking about Bill Ayers, as it has been lately? Should it be talking about Congress, especially people like Barney Frank and Chris Dodd? Should it be talking about ACORN? Or something else?

As an amateur pundit, I don't have to have all the answers. But I like to ask questions. So my question for tonight is this - what should the McCain campaign be talking about for the remainder of the campaign? And can McCain drain Lake Winnebago?

It's a Gas Gas Gas

You might remember this post from back in June. It was a contest concerning what the average price of gas will be in the Twin Cities on 1/1/09. I predicted $2.49/gallon; a number of other people are playing, too, with a range of predictions from Right Hook's optimistic $2.67 to Uncle Ben's more pessimistic $3.90.

Just so you know, the price of gasoline at the gas stations nearest my house -- the SuperAmerica and PDQ that battle it out at the corner of Old Highway 8 and County Road D, hard by the New Brighton/Roseville border, currently stands at $2.819.

Mind you, the rest of the economy is in the crapper, but hey, that's something.

Fearless Dilettante Football Predictions - Bread and Circuses Edition

It's easy to fall prey to despair with the unceasing torrent of bad news - I think my 401(k) is now a -401(k), or perhaps Fahrenheit 451, but I'm not certain. But the games go on. Bread and circuses for everybody!





Xavier Hawks 31, Fox Valley Lutheran Foxes 17. Ah, it's the ancient intra-city rivalry between my beloved Hawks and the Other. FVL is a WELS school and historically they aren't especially fond of Catholic boys, which goes a long ways toward explaining the animosity in this series. The X and the Lutherans have been playing for well over 40 years now and it's always interesting. This year my boys are better. We'll leave the theological component aside.

ACTUAL RESULT: FVL 28, XAVIER 14. It would appear that my faith in this matter had no justification.





Irondale Knights 51, St. Francis Saints 0. Catholics know that St. Jude is the patron saint of lost causes and that St. Francis of Assisi is the patron saint of animals. The Saints are the dregs of the North Suburban and either they ought to be praying to St. Jude or they may just accept the fact that the Knights will likely give them the rented mule treatment. Next week it gets much tougher for the Knights.

ACTUAL RESULT: IRONDALE 53, ST. FRANCIS 7. The halftime score and the final score were the same, which should tell you everything you need to know. Next week the Knights get Hopkins, which is a significant step up in class.

Mounds View Mustangs 34, Forest Lake Rangers 16. The Rangers are a middling team in the Suburban East and have historically played the Mustangs tough, especially on their home field. This game is at Mounds View, though, and it won't be close. Irondale and Mounds View continue on their collision course in the playoffs.

ACTUAL RESULT: MOUNDS VIEW 40, FOREST LAKE 9. A dominating performance for the Mustangs. Next week it's mighty Cretin-Derham Hall.





Ripon Red Hawks 42, Beloit Bucs 20. The mighty Buccos are improving and I'm happy for Chris Brann and his staff. Beloit once went 28 years between victories against Ripon (1959-1987). Things have equalized somewhat since then, but lately the Red Hawks have been dominating the series. Won't change on Saturday.

ACTUAL RESULT: RIPON 30, BELOIT 0. Next!



Penn State Nittany Lions 27, Wisconsin Badgers 26. Heartbreaking losses are becoming this Badger squad's forte. Maybe the band's return will make a difference, but from this corner it looks like Penn State is better than the Ohio State team that beat the Badgers last week. Too bad - this season looked like it would be a good one, but I'm sure El Paso or Shreveport or somesuch will be lovely around Christmastime.

ACTUAL RESULT: PENN STATE 48, WISCONSIN 7. Well, at least it wasn't a heartbreaking loss. There is that. This is Don Morton stuff, though. Certainly the worst lost the Badgers have had since those dark days. Lotta work to be done.


Illinois Fighting Obamas 41, Minnesota Golden Frankens 24. All hail our new socialist overlords!

ACTUAL RESULT: MINNESOTA 27, ILLINOIS 20. On the other hand, this is a very impressive victory. Good for the Gophers, who continue to improve each week under Tim Brewster and are only a victory or two away from a fairly decent bowl.


Green Bay Packers 24, Seattle Walrus Nation 17. Usually the Seabags are really tough to beat at home, but their entire team is on the injured reserve list this year. I believe that Dave Krieg and Brian Bosworth will be suiting up for Mike "Why Didn't I Retire When I Had the Chance" Holmgren.

ACTUAL RESULT: GREEN BAY 27, SEATTLE 17. That was pretty close. Charlie Frye is chicken soup. Next week against the Colts will be tougher.


Purple Helmeted Love Warriors 31, Motor City Kitties 10. It should go well for the Vikings this week so long as Chris Kluwe doesn't see the field. Fortunately for the Vikings, he won't.

ACTUAL RESULT: MINNESOTA ZEBRA BENEFICIARIES 12, LIONS 10. Wow. The last time an official missed a call that badly on Minnesota soil in an NFL game, he got hit in the head with a whiskey bottle. Chilly continues to demonstrate that it's better to be lucky than good.

Guilty Pleasures Part Twenty-Nine -- Simple But Not Easy

No politics today and because the baseball series ended so soon, there's not a lot of sports to talk about. So let's play some tunes.

Four choices today - nice basslines, good guitar and plenty of attitude. Rock and roll as I understand the term.

First one is to prove that I actually know a song that was recorded in this millennium. I am pairing it with the second song because: (a) both songs have essentially the same bassline and (b) both singers really could use some shampoo.

So it's Jet with:

Are You Gonna Be My Girl

And it's Iggy Pop from his great 1977 awakening, before the cruise ships denatured him. He's just a modern guy - of course he's had it in the ear before. Too much information, there, Ig. But that's okay because he's got a

Lust for Life

Then we go forward one year, to 1978, to one of the key songs of my high school years, as rendered at Budokan. Got my KISS records out with Cheap Trick because it's time to

Surrender

And one more from the very end of the 1970s, from the Only Band That Matters. Menace abounds as the Clash gets deep into the dub. You'll have to answer to:

The Guns of Brixton

The floor is open!

Another Election That Matters

Now more than ever, we need CHANGE WE CAN BELIEVE IN. We stand on the edge of a New Frontier, now that it's Morning in America. So don't forget to do your part and vote in the election that really matters - Mayor of the MOB. Vote over at Foot's place.

And here's a hint: vote for this guy. Or maybe this guy, who really seems to want the job.

The Needle Does Not Move

I missed the first half hour of the debate (had to go to Boy Scouts with my son) but saw the rest. John McCain needed to do a lot better tonight than he did. The game is not over, but it's now going to be much tougher for McCain to win and things weren't looking good before. A few observations:

• Tom Brokaw was absolutely abysmal. Self-important, whining, petulant and grandstanding the whole time. He was more concerned about his timekeeping and ensuring that the candidates paid fealty to the rules than letting the conservation develop to the point where a candidate might say something interesting. You want a moderator for these things - Brokaw was a gatekeeper. But it's worth remembering that only losers complain about the referees. Winners overcome bad calls.


• Obama has gotten better at debating. He's still full of balloon juice on most everything but he's very good at spouting his line, especially when he's not interrupted. And he wasn't tonight. He pretty much got to hit his marks on every question and McCain really never laid a glove on him. Obama had to look plausible and if you don't know any better (and most people don't), he did.


• McCain needed to be much better than he was. He didn't do anything egregiously bad, but he never seemed to make the killer point that would differentiate himself and make an affirmative case for why he should be elected. He kept saying that "I know how to do this." That may be, but it's argument by assertion. McCain didn't explain how he knows how to do whatever this is. More importantly, he also didn't explain why Obama won't be able to do what Obama claims he will do. That's the thing that nags me the most about Obama, besides his ridiculous policy ideas -- what evidence is there that a guy with his resume and his go-along get-along history will be able to demonstrate leadership and actually get anything done if his butt hits the seat in the Oval Office. McCain needed to hammer that point home and he didn't.


• The whole point of having a town hall forum is to get offbeat questions from the audience. We didn't get any from either the internet or the audience in the auditorium. It may as well have been the White House press corps in the room. The last two questions - about defending Israel militarily and the silly one about what the candidates don't know (a whole lot from what I can tell) - approached interesting. Of course Obama sidestepped the first one and then used his time to make a closing statement at the end. And McCain didn't do a hell of a lot better.


• If this were a football game, we'd be in the middle of the 4th quarter now. To extend the analogy, McCain is down by 11 points. He needs two scores to win. He just went 3 and out. Obama now has the ball and will try to play ball control the rest of the way. And he has an excellent offensive line in the MSM.

Just a Reminder That

Iowahawk is a genius.

Maybe It Doesn't Matter. . . .

After all, that's what my portsider friends tell me. It's all OVAH. Obama has won. McCain can never catch up now that everyone has decided that Obama is the only person who can provide the change America needs.

But it is worth noting that Tony Rezko is talking and Obama's bogus donors have finally drawn the attention of the MSM. Meanwhile, McCain and Palin are firing.

They may be right. But at least it now looks like the American people will get full disclosure. If the people decide to elect Obama anyway, then we'll have to tip our hats to him and wish him well. But there are four weeks left.

We Have Always Been At War With Eastasia

So Saturday Night Live ran a very fun skit last week about the bailout that actually named some names, like Barney Frank and George Soros. Funny - you can't get that bit anymore on the SNL website. But you can get it here.

You can have a memory hole, kids, but that doesn't mean things stay there.

Comedy Gold

So the Obama campaign has decided to roll out John McCain’s membership in the Keating Five. Fair enough – it’s part of McCain’s record.

Simultaneously, he’s using former Senator John Glenn as a surrogate in Ohio. Uh, Senator Obama: I know you were pretty young when the Keating Five business was going on, but you would think that someone on your staff is old enough to remember that John Glenn was part of the Keating Five, too.

I’m glad that the Obama campaign has started taking victory laps already. Bill Ayers may not bring Obama down, but hubris and sloppiness could.

(H/T: Captain Ed)

Glad the AP Could Clear That Up

Sarah Palin criticizes Barack Obama's relationship with Bill Ayers. Bill Ayers is a white guy.

According to writer Douglass Daniel at the Associated Press, that means Palin is being racist.

Palin's words avoid repulsing voters with overt racism. But is there another subtext for creating the false image of a black presidential nominee "palling around" with terrorists while assuring a predominantly white audience that he doesn't see their America?

In a post-Sept. 11 America, terrorists are envisioned as dark-skinned radical Muslims, not the homegrown anarchists of Ayers' day 40 years ago. With Obama a relative unknown when he began his campaign, the Internet hummed with false e-mails about ties to radical Islam of a foreign-born candidate.

Whether intended or not by the McCain campaign, portraying Obama as "not like us" is another potential appeal to racism. It suggests that the Hawaiian-born Christian is, at heart, un-American.

Emphasis mine. There are so many canards in this AP "analysis" that I could spend 1000+ words on it. Don't have time to right now, but I'd simply suggest the following:

Ayers wasn't a "homegrown anarchist." He was and is a committed leftist of the limousine liberal type - his entree into polite Chicago society is directly related to his lineage as the scion of the head honcho at Commonwealth Edison, the utility that has served Chicago for decades. In the go-along to get-along world of Chicago politics, Ayers's bombing campaign is simply a youthful indiscretion and no big thing. Mayor Daley himself has said that Ayers and Obama are pals. Maybe Daley is mistaken, but he knows where things stand in his fiefdom.

And as far as the distinction about what motivates terrorists is concerned, I don't think that John Murtagh would be any more bothered by the bombing that his family suffered if it had come from a radical Islamist instead of Ayers. The technique was the same and the desired result was, too.

I posted Mohammed Atta's picture with this piece on purpose. When this AP analysis says that terrorists are seen as "dark-skinned radical Muslims," it's worth remembering that Atta (and bin Laden and Zawahiri, for that matter) aren't especially dark-skinned. I share the ethnic heritage of the people who blew up Lord Mountbatten. Doesn't matter - the IRA were (and are) scum, too.

Obama isn't a terrorist. But he comes from a place where "community organizers" and unrepentant terrorists are absorbed into the bosom of the all-encompassing political machine. It's all good. Maybe it's okay with America. We'll find out on November 4.

Mirage

So what was the pennant race all about again? We're less than a week into the baseball playoffs and the Cubs and the Brewers are both gone (and the Whities might be before the day is over).

The Brewers weren't really good enough to win -- bullpen was shaky, starting pitching was shaky once you got past the magnificent CC Sabathia (note to Brewers brain trust: sign him! Sign him! C'mon, back up the Brinks truck!) but there might be hope for the future if Yovani Gallardo is able to come back strong next year. Still a lot of young talent in the Brewer pipeline, too.

The Cubs? I'm not sure what happened. The team that pitched and hit better than anyone else in the National League all season long ceased doing anything against the Dodgers. It was very weird. Just another chapter in the history that the old Chicago folkie Steve Goodman so memorably described in his song "A Dying Cubs Fan's Last Request"

Do they still play the blues in Chicago

When baseball season rolls around

When the snow melts away,

Do the Cubbies still play

In their ivy-covered burial ground

When I was a boy they were my pride and joy

But now they only bring fatigue

To the home of the brave

The land of the free

And the doormat of the National League

For the 101th straight time, just wait'll next year.

Two Quick Things

I'm entering a very busy stretch and posting may be a little light the next few days. Two things worth your attention this morning:

• McCain is finally going to go after Barack Obama about his relationship with Bill Ayers. One of the standard lines about the Ayers/Obama relationship is that Obama was only 8 years old when the Weathermen were active. True, as far as it goes. But for an important perspective on why palling around with an unrepentant terrorist (as Gov. Palin would have it) is a poor idea, read this piece.


• Why the Republicans won't go after the Democrats about their role in Fannie and Freddie is beyond me. Even Saturday Night Live has figured it out. The skit I've linked to actually does an excellent job of explaining what really happened in the last five years. I especially like the caption they gave George Soros. If Obama becomes President, we'll need all the jesters we can get.

The Fire This Time in 50B

It's hard not to talk about the presidential election this cycle, but in some cases what happens on the local level has a greater effect on your daily life. The politicians at the county and city level are just as able to raise your taxes and are even more likely to enact rules and regulations that can hamstring your freedom.

With that in mind, it's time to visit where we are at in some of the local races that affect New Brighton and the surrounding suburbs. The family and I were at Long Lake Regional Park this evening for a BPOU 50B bonfire/confab and a number of candidates were present, including several that this feature supports. Following is a long-overdue update on where the candidates are, one month from Election Day.

• Ed Matthews continues his quest to unseat Betty McCollum in the 4th Congressional District. It's a tough job, given the unfavorable demographics of the district, but Ed's opportunity to get noticed is nigh. McCollum has been essentially hiding from Ed for most of the campaign, but a debate will take place next week at Hamline University. It may be the only time that Ed will get a chance to share a stage with the incumbent, who is most often seen these days in one of two places: either serving as a footrest for Speaker Nancy Pelosi, or quoted in anti-Al Franken ads. Today was the fourth time I've seen Ed and he continues to grow in confidence, precision and presence on the stump. He also picked up an endorsement from the Fraternal Order of Police, which is quite a coup in the 4th. Betty is hoping that people won't pay attention to the upcoming debate. It's quite easy to understand why.


• Lori Grivna's campaign to unseat Kate "Agent Orange" Knuth in 50B continues apace. Lori is doing very well in getting her message out this time and while yard signs are at best anecdotal evidence, it would appear that the message is getting through - I'm still seeing about a 55-45 split on signs in Lori's favor. Even though Knuth is the incumbent, Lori has a sizable advantage in experience, both politically and in life. Knuth's enthusiasm for the embrace of a bigger government is obvious and has been noticed in the district -- people I talk to aren't happy about the tax increases we've seen in Ramsey County and there's reason to believe that people are noticing that Knuth had a pretty big hand in making it happen. Knuth's maniacal fealty to global warming/climate change/cap and trade isn't resonating so much in this cycle, especially with gas prices remaining north of $3 a gallon. The next few weeks will be crucial and Lori will have opportunities to debate Knuth in the coming days; the distinctions are strong and clear and Lori should have the better of it.


• Richard Moses faces a tough but winnable fight against the entrenched incumbent, Jan Parker, for the District 2 seat on the Ramsey County board, which primarily includes New Brighton, Roseville, Lauderdale and parts of St. Anthony. Rick has a presentation up on his website and shares a truly maddening tale of the way the Ramsey County board currently operates. You should definitely click the link and hear what Rick has to say, especially about a supposedly open budget meeting that suddenly adjourned after only 10 minutes when it became clear that citizens wanted to participate. Parker chairs the County Board and she apparently thinks that she is above scrutiny. Rick is the guy to call her out on the egregious behavior that the Board has undertaken. Reform is needed in St. Paul and Rick will fight for it. He's a smart guy and he will take constituent service seriously, unlike Commissioner Parker, who is the political equivalent of Brigadoon, only appearing when she needs votes.


• Both candidates for District 1 (generally comprised of Mounds View, Arden Hills, Shoreview, North Oaks and White Bear Township) attended the event this evening. Tony Bennett is the incumbent and has been a member of the Republican Party for many years. He has performed valuable service for his constituents as a state legislator and on the County Board - it would be uncharitable to say otherwise. But at this point in his career, we're seeing diminishing returns. Commisioner Bennett has gone along with the other commissioners and has too often voted in ways that are contrary to taxpayer interests. That's why District 1 voters really owe it to themselves to take a close look at newcomer Jim Schottmuller, a very impressive young man who is challenging Bennett. When it comes to the issues, Jim stands with Rick Moses on the need for reform. I hadn't seen Jim before tonight and I came away very impressed. Jim has an excellent grasp of the issues and makes his case quite well. He understands that changing the culture on the County Board will be difficult and has no illusions about it, but my guess is that he would be a dynamic force for change on the board. No matter the results of this election, we will be hearing more from Jim Schottmuller, whose picture appears on this post.

I'll continue to watch these races as Election Day approaches. We have some excellent candidates in Ramsey County and they deserve your support.

Cross-posted at True North

Great Moments in Recent French Military History

I learned something last night during the debate. Like a lot of Americans, I had wrongly assumed that the French had lately been obstructionist at best in recent years and that about the only military power they had projected in recent years was in the suburbs of Paris.

Guess I was wrong. Joe Biden reminded me of something that apparently I never knew:

When we kicked -- along with France, we kicked Hezbollah out of Lebanon, I said and Barack said, "Move NATO forces in there. Fill the vacuum, because if you don't know -- if you don't, Hezbollah will control it."

Now what's happened? Hezbollah is a legitimate part of the government in the country immediately to the north of Israel.

The fact of the matter is, the policy of this administration has been an abject failure.

The French kicked Hezbollah out of Lebanon? Man, who knew? I'm guessing that Biden saw the news reports when he was visiting Katie's Restaurant in Wilmington.

Sarah Smile

Why is this woman smiling? Perhaps because it's likely that she won the debate tonight. A few thoughts about what we saw in St. Louis:

• If Palin did win (and I suspect she did), it didn't mean that Biden lost. Biden was impressive, frankly more impressive than the fellow on the top of his ticket. He has a command at the podium now that he was sorely lacking 20 years ago and the time format helped him, because it kept him focused so he didn't ramble.


• Having said that, the most important part of the post-debate scrum will be the fact-checking. Biden threw out a lot of assertions that seemed dubious to me, but they came so fast that I didn't really know where to begin in thinking about it. It's easier to tell when Obama is lying because his style is more deliberative and pedantic.
• Moderator Gwen Ifill came into the debate with great suspicion because she is writing a book on the campaign that features Obama. It did not appear to me that she favored either candidate and she didn't betray any agenda with her questioning, which is more than I can say for Charlie Gibson or Katie Couric. Good for her.


• The challenge before Palin was to avoid gaffes. She did. Palin didn't always answer the question she received, which seemed to frustrate Ifill from time to time, but what we saw tonight was the star power that she demonstrated at the Republican Convention a month ago. She has a very winning personality and when she gets to speak directly to people, she comes across very well.


• I'm sure someone else has made this point before, but Palin's folksy manner reminds me a bit of the Marge Gunderson character in the movie Fargo. She does have a bit of the yokel in her, but you underestimate her at your peril. When it comes to pure likeability, I think Palin has more of it than any of the other members of either ticket. Biden and McCain are both senators of a certain generation and they aren't really accesible personalities, and Obama's persona is hardly that of a regular guy. I have lived in the Midwest for nearly my entire life and I have known many women who are like Sarah Palin. I've never met anyone who is like Joe Biden. And Barack Obama is sui generis.


• One thing Palin didn't do, and this is a definite problem, is adequately defend John McCain. Biden is a good counterpuncher and he got in a lot of shots about McCain's record that Palin didn't really address in any substantive way. Again, a lot of what Biden said needs to be fact-checked, but the traditional expectation is that the vice-president not only attacks the candidates from the other party, but must be ready to defend the standard-bearer. Palin may be capable of that, but I didn't see it tonight.


• Will this debate move the needle back? Hard to say. My first guess is that it probably takes the "Palin is a disaster" meme off the table. She may not be 100% ready to be President on Day One, but she doesn't have to be. She's running for Vice President. No one is 100% ready to be president on Day One - it is a job of such massive scope and fiendish permutations that all Presidents, even those who have a strong moral code like Ronald Reagan, end up spending much of their time necessarily operating in the gray. In the end, the decision isn't about Sarah Palin or Joe Biden. It's about John McCain and Barack Obama.


• So far Barack Obama has been able to skate on the Day One question. If the McCain/Palin ticket wants to win, they need to move that question to the front burner and turn the heat up. On balance, I think McCain/Palin won today. But they lost most days in September and the hour grows short.

Cross-posted at True North

The Thousandth Time

You are reading the thousandth post on Mr. Dilettante. Milestones usually call for a few thoughts. And I have a few.

I began this thing on December 13, 2005, during my lunch hour, while I was working as a program analyst for Bank of America. I started my blog on the same day as two of my co-workers; we all decided it might be an amusing thing to do. The other blogs that began that day are no longer with us: Umlaut Free eventually faded out, although my friend has subsequently blogged intermittently at two other places since then. Regular readers of this feature know him as Strolling Amok or SA. The other blog, Raspberries, also faded from the scene as my other co-worker moved to Oregon with the Bank. I wrote two short posts that day and you can read them here and here. As you will note, I managed to namecheck Kevin Costner, Susan Sarandon, Charles Lindbergh, John Murtha, Hugh Hefner, Lee Harvey Oswald, John Rawls and Lou Rawls that first day. Not much has changed that way.

It was a tough time in my life - we had learned a month earlier that Bank of America was closing their offices in Bloomington and that we could keep our jobs if we were willing to pull up stakes and move to Hillsboro, Oregon. Mrs. D and I had decided against the move and I had to figure out what I was going to do with the rest of my life. As it has turned out, blogging is one of those things.

For the first two years of this feature, I made almost no effort to publicize my work in the blogosphere. I tried to write regularly but it wasn't unusual for me to go a week or more between posts. Life was complicated: I had to find a job and I was ill a fair amount of the time. As 2006 turned to 2007, the reasons for my illness became clear and I used this blog to chronicle my story.

Eventually I got better and by the end of 2007, things were going much better. And as my health improved, the pace of blogging picked up quite a lot. I joined the MOB, started writing for True North and even got the attention of a few local politicians. It took me 2 years to write my first 500 posts -- the second 500 have come in less than a year.

As I've pursued this venture, I've sometimes been surprised by a few things. I knew from the start that I would write about sports, music and politics, because those are things that matter. As things have developed, this blog has become increasingly political and sometimes I wished that weren't the case. Even though I spend a hell of a lot of time discussing political matters, I'd really rather not. What is evident is that we live in a time where politics have so thoroughly permeated the culture that it becomes very difficult to avoid political discussions, unless you decide to disengage from the larger world. We are in high season for politics right now and some pretty momentous things have been happening in recent days. There is an excellent chance that we might see a charismatic but deeply flawed man occupy the Oval Office in January. It's also possible that Barack Obama might win, too. It's a matter that merits discussion and I'll continue to follow it here; I fully expect that Post 1001 will concern the debate later this evening.

Once the election is over, my goal is to write a little less about politics. We'll always have politics and politicians always merit the gimlet eye, but it gets old. I'd rather post links to YouTube videos any time; there's more joy and surprise in mining the silliness of the past than trying to slog through a Lori Sturdevant column any time. Reaching that goal may be tough, but it's worth trying.

Most of all, I want to thank everyone who comes here for a visit. I am deeply grateful that you are willing to spare some of your time for this feature. Some of you comment frequently and I appreciate that, but there are others who visit regularly anonymously. I appreciate you, too. Writing is performance as much as anything else and I hope that you'll continue to see value in what you find here. Enjoy the show!

Fearless Dilettante Football Predictions - Dick Trickle Edition

The pro teams we follow here continue their early-season sojourn against NFL competition from the southern tier of states, so it seems necessary and proper to salute one of the greatest of Cheesehead racecar drivers, Dick Trickle. We could have picked Dave Marcis or Matt Kenseth, but Trickle's very name is comedy gold, as an entire generation of ESPN anchors reminded us 15-20 years ago. But enough about that: on to the picks!





Xavier Hawks 34, Berlin Politically Incorrect Term for Native Americans 14. Not many schools still use the name "Indians," but Berlin (pronounced BURR-lin for my non-Cheesehead readers) is bucking the trend. It's a better nickname than "Brownshirts," I suppose. In any event, the Hawks will handle them.

ACTUAL RESULT: XAVIER 21, BERLIN 0. Teri Nunn was unavailable for comment.

Irondale Knights 38, Chisago Lakes Wildcats 27. Probably the toughest conference foe left on Irondale's schedule and the game is up in Chisago Lakes. I suspect the Knights will prevail but it won't be easy.

ACTUAL RESULT: IRONDALE 35, CHISAGO LAKES 22. The Knights continue to play very well. This was probably the toughest conference game left on the schedule and the Knights are probably on the way to a high playoff seed in their section.




Mounds View Mustangs 31, Robbinsdale Armstrong Falcons 21. Tough one to gauge, as Armstrong is a member of the Classic Lake conference, an odd 5-team league that has four powerhouses in it. Unfortunately, Armstrong is not one of them.

ACTUAL RESULT: MOUNDS VIEW 40, ARMSTRONG 14. Armstrong might have thought they were getting a break getting away from the rugged Classic Lake. Guess not. The Mustangs win easily.





Lake Forest Foresters 21, Beloit Bucs 17. Lake Forest is a team that Beloit can beat. Lake Forest is also a team that Beloit does not beat, especially in Lake Forest. Go with the Foresters on their home field.

ACTUAL RESULT: BELOIT 27, LAKE FOREST 21. Real progress here. The Bucs hadn't won at Lake Forest for a number of years. Next week will be a trip to Ripon. A strong showing there would suggest that the team is turning the corner.


Wisconsin Badgers 21, Ohio State Buckeyes 20. The Badgers did one of the all-time choke jobs in Ann Arbor last week and this is not exactly an easy assignment. My guess is that Brett Bielema will have found a way to heal Bucky's psyche sufficiently to get past the Buckeyes in Madison. But I won't be surprised if I'm wrong.

ACTUAL RESULT: OHIO STATE 20, WISCONSIN 17. No band, no defense at the end. This is starting to look like 1995 or 2001, seasons where the Badgers were pretty good but not quite good enough. We'll find out how good a coach Brett Bielema is next week when Penn State comes to town.

Minnesota Golden Gophers 34, Indiana Wants Me (Lord I Can't Go Back There) 24. The Gophers have improved. If they are ready to take the next step, they need to beat the Hoosiers, a perennial footwipe in the Big Ten. The guess here is that they will.

ACTUAL RESULT: MINNESOTA 16, INDIANA 7. Defense? The Gophers play defense? Really? Hmm.


Green Bay Packers 31, Atlanta Falcons 24. I don't know what to expect from the Packers. The Falcons are a pretty ordinary bunch, but with all the injuries that Packers have suffered on defense, it wouldn't surprise me if the Packers have to go find someone off the street to play defensive line. Early possibilities include John Jurkovic and Clarence "Big Cat Williams," but we probably shouldn't rule out the immortal Blaise Winter.

ACTUAL RESULT: ATLANTA 27, GREEN BAY 24. Can't stop the run, can't win the game. Don't pin this on Aaron Rodgers, although he did throw a bad pick in the 4th quarter. He's not the problem right now. Maybe they could put some casters on Gilbert Brown or something.


New Orleans Saints 31, Purple Helmeted Love Warriors 17. The Saints feature a healthy Drew Brees. The Vikings feature a banged-up Gus Frerotte. Next question?

Easy for Him to Say

The Wall Street Journal has a deeply useful compendium of what various figures involved in our current financial crisis were saying while the crisis was developing earlier in the decade. It's worth your time to read it all, but I want to call out one particular exchange:

Senate Banking Committee, Oct. 16, 2003:

Sen. Charles Schumer (D., N.Y.): And my worry is that we're using the recent safety and soundness concerns, particularly with Freddie, and with a poor regulator, as a straw man to curtail Fannie and Freddie's mission. And I don't think there is any doubt that there are some in the administration who don't believe in Fannie and Freddie altogether, say let the private sector do it. That would be sort of an ideological position.

Mr. Raines: But more importantly, banks are in a far more risky business than we are.

Emphasis mine. In other words, Raines knew all along he was playing with the house money. And Senators like Charles Schumer were complicit in not only letting it happen, but pretty much compelling it. Again, you can bash Wall Street as much as you want, but it's long past time for someone to point out the responsibility of the solons for what happened. And I have a suggestion for who that someone ought to be.

Hurry up please it's time.

Guilty Pleasures Part Twenty-Eight -- Mental Health Break Edition

My goodness, I've been grumpy the past two days! I've posted nearly 1000 times in this feature (I'll probably pass that milestone tomorrow) and usually this is a good-natured place, but recent events have certainly beclouded my disposition more than a little bit. The elections are less than five weeks away and there's an absolute surfeit of politics, so let's take a step away from it and run some videos. For what it's worth, Barack Obama will still be there to bash tomorrow.

There's always been a thin line between genius and madness, and in rock history some very good songs (and some not so good ones) have danced around the topic of madness. Heck, back around 1980 or so we had a band called Madness that you might remember.

So, sometimes when things drive you crazy, you might as well go with it. Kinda like these people:

Seal

Patsy Cline

Gnarls Barkley

Ozzy Osbourne

Madonna

Paul Davis

Van Morrison

Paul Simon

The Crazy World of Arthur Brown

I'm sure there are other songs I'm missing, but that's probably plenty. Pick your favorite and tell me why!