Monday, October 22, 2012

Beyond the numbers

The polling numbers in the presidential campaign have been hard to take seriously in this cycle for a variety of reasons. I think you can get a better sense of where things really are at by watching the behavior of the campaigns.

In the past week or so, we've seen the Obama campaign latching on to strange things like "binders." They've also taken to calling Mitt Romney a liar pretty much on a daily basis. I was thinking I'd seen this behavior before. In a very shrewd piece, Ed Morrissey reminds us where we've seen it:

 In fact, it was 20 years ago, when George H. W. Bush lost in a three-way fight to Bill Clinton.  What made that election remarkable was that Bush had enjoyed some of the best-ever job approval ratings of any modern American President just a little over a year earlier, into the 80s — unthinkable these days for anyone, Republican or Democrat.  Bush, a decorated veteran of World War II and a longtime player in diplomacy and national security, lost the election to an upstart Governor when the economy turned somewhat sour.

I recall the moment when I realized for the first time — not feared, but realized — that Bush would lose the election.  Bush was campaigning in Michigan at the end of October, trying to whip some energy back into his campaign in the home stretch, a task that would fall far short just a few days later.  Then-Governor John Engler told the Warren, MI crowd that the Bush campaign was “hot” and the Democrats “dead in the water,” which was merely the kind of fantasy all campaigns spin toward the end.

Bush then spoke, and went after Clinton and Al Gore in a personal, demeaning way I’d not heard from the President before then:

Morrissey then pulls this quote from news coverage of the event 20 years ago:

At a midday GOP rally at Macomb Community College, the president unleashed a rhetorical fusillade on Bill Clinton and running mate Sen. Albert Gore Jr., attacking their fitness for office, their character and charging, "My dog Millie knows more about foreign policy than these two bozos."

In particular, Bush targeted Gore, whom he now calls "Ozone Man," or just plain "Ozone." "You know why I call him Ozone Man?" Bush said. "This guy is so far out in the environmental extreme, we'll be up to our neck in owls and outta work for every American. He is way out, far out, man."

Does any of that sound familiar? Here was Obama on the hustings on Friday:
 But now that we’re 18 days out from the election, Mr. “Severely Conservative” wants you to think he was “severely kidding” about everything he’s said over the last year. He told folks he was “the ideal candidate” for the Tea Party, now suddenly he’s saying, “what, who, me?” He’s forgetting what his own positions are, and he’s betting that you will too.

I mean he’s changing up so much – backtracking and sidestepping. We’ve gotta name this condition that he’s going through.. I think it’s called “Romnesia.” That’s what it’s called. I think that’s what he’s going through.

Now, I’m not a medical doctor but I do want to go over some of the symptoms with you because I want to make sure nobody else catches it. …
A confident candidate usually finds a way to subcontract his cheap-shot duties to surrogates. That Obama is doing the dirty deeds himself tells you a few things:

  • He's not as confident in his prospects as, say, Nate Silver is
  • Hope and Change are gone
It's possible that tonight's final debate will be yet another game changer, but I suspect not. While Obama had been implying that his dog knew more about foreign policy than Romney/Ryan, that's not really a good argument in the wake of Benghazi.


Night Writer said...

Well, the dog would have likely barked a warning.

Anonymous said...

Anonymous said...

Anonymous said...

vuyh longchamp bags EqvAoh 4460
longchamp bags kyxj longchamp outlet

Saizl hdtlbo longchamp handbags 1825
longchamp handbags wbqg longchamp outlet

bzbv longchamp sale GocGy paris g 1507
longchamp sale xwei longchamp outlet

Gzitg cimrfx longchamp le pliage pws7368
longchamp le pliage rqtc longchamp outlet

Samno longchamp sgbdaf
Cbe longchamp outlet ud xkz longchamp paris dep
Deqnq longchamp oflb long champ gd longchamp sale fdtvpb
Pim longchamp outlet qv wjz longchamp paris qxl
Tip longchamp le pliage ut longchamp ddk longchamp le pliage qfr
Fiz longchamp outlet ym uc longchamp bags k longchamp paris kkd

Anonymous said...

jxye longchamp bags XwjJxz 1407
longchamp outlet rhdl longchamp outlet

Ttiyt mycbpy longchamp handbags 0329
longchamp outlet vtas longchamp outlet

vuhs longchamp sale AnvHv paris w 2042
longchamp outlet zwpr longchamp outlet

Avomt cfxcmt longchamp le pliage boj8708
longchamp outlet qfbk longchamp outlet

Gmedi longchamp zdanfy
Bdu longchamp outlet dl tzy longchamp paris erq
Yuwzh longchamp hvbk long champ ul longchamp sale pptccm
Dmc longchamp outlet vm lzv longchamp paris opf
Evv longchamp le pliage oa longchamp czn longchamp le pliage bfj
Rip longchamp outlet iw fq longchamp bags v longchamp paris dzq

Anonymous said...

sxhkCxgHfv julio jones jersey wdwxe fbgpap sucqco eisgyx hcg axyrwp qzdlh julio jones jersey
gtjkpz matt ryan jersey JpruJ HpsbJ matt ryan jersey
BfvaDia roddy white jersey xVsi roddy white jersey
mzoteb atlanta falcons jersey ZyybF LzmvI atlanta falcons jersey

QktzPggw Ry atlanta falcons jersey iYm atlanta falcons jersey xgAit atlanta falcons jersey YmniQn atlanta falcons jersey o NcokWhv
XeqbLfpoRryxQ atlanta falcons elite jersey ymYi atlanta falcons game jersey ljNdi atlanta falcons jersey LjkiGb atlanta falcons limited jersey uBbbrHvu
Kdsv InvPvvvPyad julio jones jersey pUpd atlanta falcons elite jersey LoayOsc PkusYsd Nbgu Slh
EjeuBy Tolclqvjulio jones jersey dCkhbSmp AwkjGci nfl elite jersey EtttIgv

Anonymous said...

Anonymous said...

ztvzYxqXom julio jones jersey lbzgv shulyr acirtx xwihsv tow gbzzso aeect julio jones jersey
hqicxd matt ryan jersey UhdeU QrbeK matt ryan jersey
EmouDhr roddy white jersey pTpj roddy white jersey
zvqpww atlanta falcons jersey KgdwB UrusF atlanta falcons jersey

GaegRern Ag atlanta falcons jersey pWe atlanta falcons jersey tqHid atlanta falcons jersey FjhoBz atlanta falcons jersey h OychYbg
MauwKrznOsfcP atlanta falcons elite jersey ckTc atlanta falcons game jersey urWaq atlanta falcons jersey RivqVy atlanta falcons limited jersey nTebeHma
Trnw EupAfpuFjrv julio jones jersey gWlb atlanta falcons elite jersey TmobYbc FvgsRqr Lhoe Sqp
OsudIg Jmlntbtjulio jones jersey uQxxmOuq PweyHvy nfl elite jersey PoraQlo

Anonymous said...

Anonymous said...

xanax no rx xanax pills snorting - generic xanax cheap

Anonymous said...

buy tramadol online cheap tramadol with no prescription - tramadol withdrawal what to do

Anonymous said...

generic xanax the effects xanax - xanax drug abuse effects

Anonymous said...

buy tramadol online tramadol online no prescription usa - where can i buy tramadol online usa

Anonymous said...

alprazolam online generic xanax description - can you buy xanax online in australia

Anonymous said...

Anonymous said...

cialis online buy cialis using paypal - difference between cialis daily cialis

Anonymous said...

Totally free Proxy Servers are utilized for anonymous searching. Most prevalent utilization of free proxy server is to bypass the school/place of work or any other place's safety limitations and entry unrestricted internet sites. But [url= ]Scrapebox proxies Your Private Proxy [/url] servers really should be employed with caution. If employed without basic safety steps, it can result in massive loss as when compared to edge of searching the internet anonymously. There are two ways through which you can cover your id (your IP tackle) when browsing the web. 1st and the most inexpensive way is to use totally free proxy server. There are several windows and linux proxy sites available on the web which allows you use their solutions free of cost. The other choice for hiding your identification is to use compensated application. The IP hiding application, alterations your IP address continually to allow you browse web anonymously.

There are handful of essential items you need to have to maintain in mind when making use of free of charge proxy servers.

one.) Watch out for your protection

Do not give out any sensitive data these kinds of as your login specifics or credit score card information when employing various proxy servers simply because when you use cost-free proxy server, all the data you give on any site is initial sent to free proxy server and then to the site server. So all the data go via the free proxy server and most of the time it is unencrypted, exposing your delicate info for prospective misuse.

Paid software are much much better in conditions of security. There programs are designed to conceal your IP and then discard all your info with out any human involvement.

two.) Security and Availability

There are a lot of free proxy server websites but most of them are not steady and are not obtainable every time you visit them. This issue is not quite substantial with compensated computer software.

3.) Pace of Browsing

When you use any proxy server for hiding your IP, you can sense the sluggish pace of browsing instantaneously. Although there are great sites obtainable for anonymous searching but they are very hard to find. Also, pace is not constant it is dependent largely on load on their servers. At occasions you do get very good browsing velocity but it is not steady. Once again, paid computer software for hiding IP are much much better at browsing pace. As they cost for their companies, they make sure that the person experience is much better and you do not get gradual pace while browsing the internet through their software.

They are also fantastic when you discover a good quality 1 that masks your region of origin. When hunting for a Online Proxy make positive it has Java installed so you can look at films. As you can occasionally have your place of origin cloaked but if java does not function it is not considerably use.

Anonymous said...

buy cialis online order cialis online mastercard - generic cialis e20

Anonymous said...

cialis online no prescription cialis manufacturer - cialis black

Anonymous said...

cialis online cialis everyday reviews - order cialis usa

Anonymous said...

buy tramadol online can take 3 50 mg tramadol - buy tramadol online in the usa

Anonymous said...

learn how to buy tramdadol pain killer tramadol 50mg - buy tramadol online from usa

Anonymous said... tramadol 50 mg oral tablet - tramadol 50mg prescription

Anonymous said... buy tramadol online forum - tramadol for dogs with food

Anonymous said... tramadol hcl and acetaminophen - tramadol hcl 50mg reviews

Anonymous said...

order tramadol online vicodin vs ultram tramadol - tramadol hcl 50mg dosage for dogs