As the presidential race tightens across the country, a new Star Tribune Minnesota Poll has found that it is narrowing here as well, with President Obama holding a 3-point lead and Republican Mitt Romney making gains in the state.There's a better reason for this, which we'll get to in a minute. The next observation is weird, though:
The poll shows Obama with support from 47 percent of likely voters and Romney earning backing from 44 percent -- a lead within the poll's margin of error of plus or minus 3.5 percentage points.
Last month, Obama had an 8-percentage point advantage in the Minnesota Poll. Romney has apparently cut into the Democrat's advantage among women since then and picked up support from Minnesotans who were previously undecided or said they would vote for a third-party candidate.
Independents, on the other hand, are leaning more toward Obama. Barely a third supported him last month, but that number has grown to 43 percent. Romney's support among independents remains virtually unchanged, with 13 percent of that group remaining undecided.
This finding runs counter to what's happening nearly everywhere else. A few brief thoughts:
- I suspect the polls have moved Romney's way for a variety of reasons, but the most important one is this -- the sample on this poll is a lot closer to reality than the last one. The initial Minnesota Poll in this cycle was D +13, while this one is D +5. D +5 seems a lot closer to reality to me.
- I've long believed that a lot of independents aren't really that independent; they just don't want to declare a party. I think that's especially true in Minnesota, where there are a lot of people who are really DFLers but don't want to admit it. That would explain the result here.
- Do I think Romney will actually win Minnesota? Probably not, but it is closer than a lot of people thought. Minnesota is slowly trending Republican and it would not surprise me if it finally flips the other way in the next decade, as the blue state model fails here and elsewhere. But we aren't there yet.
7 comments:
Even by the Minnesota Poll's poor standards, I'm having trouble understanding these results.
It's D+5 margin with Obama leading among independents by 5%, yet he only leads by 3%. That would suggest that Dems in MN are abandoning Obama by a decent margin. Such results run against the trend in pretty much every other state where Obama is losing indies but keeping his base.
That would suggest that Dems in MN are abandoning Obama by a decent margin. Such results run against the trend in pretty much every other state where Obama is losing indies but keeping his base.
It would suggest that, FR. I'm assuming that at least some of the independents in question are IP types, but who knows?
Of course as Sandy hits the coast of Minnetonka, the President will be there to save you.
i think the majority of 'decline to states' in CA are GOP leaners. they are just waiting for a good reason to admit it.
its not likely to happen anytime soon, either.
Time for Obama to make the oceans recede on the East Coast. If he doesn't then it means he hates the poor people in New York.
What, ruining the economy isn't proof of that already?
Of course as Sandy hits the coast of Minnetonka, the President will be there to save you.
Ha! If Sandy gets to Minnetonka, my house will already be under water, cuz.
NW,
Yep. That's clearly what it means.
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