Tuesday, November 04, 2014

Election day

I'm not going to make any predictions on what happens today. If you want some, my friend Brad Carlson has a good set over at his place.

I will make a prediction about the longer term -- there will be a lot of voters in Minnesota who will have buyer's remorse, but they won't be people residing in the 8th CD. Okay, there's an implicit prediction in there about what happens today.

Another guess -- if the Senate does flip to the GOP, don't be surprised if at least one Dem senator flips to the GOP as well. I'm looking at you, Heidi Heitkamp.

Also, one of the operating assumptions going into 2016 is that a lot of freshman GOP senators are going to be vulnerable. I'm not sure I buy that. To use one example, people are speculating that Ron Johnson is going to be in trouble in Wisconsin in 2016. Here's a question -- who would run against Johnson? Mary Burke?

One prediction I can make with absolute certainty -- the 2016 campaign begins tomorrow. Sorry.

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