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| And it will be said again |
One is the deepening estrangement between the elites and the non-elites in America. This is the area in which Trumpism flourishes. We’ll talk about that deeper in.Yep. That's precisely it. At the same time, a lot of Trump supporters are coming on like this:
Second, Mr. Trump’s support is not limited to Republicans, not by any means.
Third, the traditional mediating or guiding institutions within the Republican universe—its establishment, respected voices in conservative media, sober-minded state party officials—have little to no impact on Mr. Trump’s rise. Some say voices of authority should stand up to oppose him, which will lower his standing. But Republican powers don’t have that kind of juice anymore. Mr. Trump’s supporters aren’t just bucking a party, they’re bucking everything around, within and connected to it.
So the peasants are revolting, in both senses of the term. To put it in popular culture terms, we're at a Katniss Everdeen moment, but the hero on offer comes on like some sort of combination of Juan Peron and Triumph the Insult Comic Dog.
Why is the Donald having this moment? We've all seen him say this:
And a lot of people want the political class fired. I do, too, but I'm a menshevik and I worry about what comes next. Have we seen this moment before? I don't think we have. Will the anger abate and will we settle into yet another Bush vs. Clinton election? Maybe, but I'm not so sure. Consider the scene here yesterday when the Donks came to town. You want 1000 words? Check this out:
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| If looks could kill, Martin O'Malley would be dead |
Can I sort it out? Naah. But something is going on.
3 comments:
I'd like to make a case that voters in general are becoming less engaged in successive presidential elections as the quality of the candidates and campaigns get weaker and that makes it possible for a galvanizing "outside" candidate to gain strength, but the participation stats don't bear that out. Since '72 we've seen presidential voter turnout hovering at barely over 50%, election after election (with 49% in '96). 2012 turnout was smaller than 2008, but not dramatically out of line.
What we do see, though, is that a very significant portion of the electorate is typically not engaged in the process. It could be because they're not inspired by the candidates, or they are generally less ideological, or they're generally happy with status quo and don't see much difference between the candidates. Insert your own theory here. What I'm thinking, however, is that nearly half the eligible voters don't care that much or think it makes much of a difference in their generally secure lives. If things get so crazy that all of a sudden these people DO start to care, then it's hard to say which party will feel the backlash the most, but it likely won't be good for either of them. The response is likely to be more reactive than thoughtful, and a poseur like Trump can ride that wave very well. Of course, he's still got to get on ballots, which the parties are good at controlling, but it becomes a question not of whether he pulls voters from Democrats or Republicans, but what he draws from the "Pox on Both Your Houses" voters. I don't know that the establishment in either party is ready for what that reality might look like.
Somebody proposed a Trump-Sanders ticket (don't panic) and it sort of makes sense-- the anti-establishment of both parties ticket and "pox on both your houses" populism. I can't imagine 50% of us being that stupid, but look who is in the WH right now....
they talk about voter turn out. they never talk about voter 'not' turn out, the intentional kind.
i live in CA, the rock solid blue state, but its not really that blue... its just that those who tend to vote red (when they vote at all) dont see the point anymore. their occasional populist victories (prop 187, or voting for arnold, there are others) are usually nullified/overturned by an entrenched blue establishment.
trump can win CA, with out trying. 'decline to state' is the highest voter registration party preference here. there is a reason for that.
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