There are at least 2 or 3 series that I've started writing here in the past year that have either fizzled out or become moot. Today seems like a good time to pick up one of those loose ends. One of the series was on Big Ten expansion.
Today's Star Tribune has an interesting piece from sportswriter Phil Miller on the subject of Big 10 expansion. The piece is one of their "only in your Sunday Paper" articles so it's not on the website, unfortunately. Miller talks about why the Big 10's chances of finding new partners is looking so good, and it's the least surprising reason of all -- money. Miller reports that each Big 10 school received $22 million in television revenue in 2008-09, easily besting the SEC ($17 million) and dwarfing the Big 12 ($6.5 million) and the Big East ($2.8 million for the schools playing football). The reason is that the much reviled Big 10 Network has turned out to be much more of a cash cow than anyone would have imagined. The $22 million per school even beats the exclusive deal of Notre Dame, which earned $15 million.
Not surprisingly, a number of schools would like in on this action and in an accompanying story Miller lists the schools most likely to be considered. In Miller's view, they are:
Today's Star Tribune has an interesting piece from sportswriter Phil Miller on the subject of Big 10 expansion. The piece is one of their "only in your Sunday Paper" articles so it's not on the website, unfortunately. Miller talks about why the Big 10's chances of finding new partners is looking so good, and it's the least surprising reason of all -- money. Miller reports that each Big 10 school received $22 million in television revenue in 2008-09, easily besting the SEC ($17 million) and dwarfing the Big 12 ($6.5 million) and the Big East ($2.8 million for the schools playing football). The reason is that the much reviled Big 10 Network has turned out to be much more of a cash cow than anyone would have imagined. The $22 million per school even beats the exclusive deal of Notre Dame, which earned $15 million.
Not surprisingly, a number of schools would like in on this action and in an accompanying story Miller lists the schools most likely to be considered. In Miller's view, they are:
Boston College
Connecticut
Missouri
Nebraska
Notre Dame
Pittsburgh
Rutgers
Syracuse
Texas
Texas A & M
Each school brings advantages and disadvantages to the table. One thing worth remembering is that academics matter and the Big Ten is unlikely to bring in a school that is not a member of the Association of American Universities, the consortium of elite reseach institutions. All current Big Ten schools are members. Of the schools Miller lists, three (Boston College, Connecticut and Notre Dame) are not AAU schools. While they might make an exception for Notre Dame, it seems less likely that the others would get a nod. Of the three, I'd personally pick Connecticut.
Much of what happens depends on how big the expansion is. If the Big Ten is only going to add one school, the obvious choice is Rutgers. That would balance the conference, give Penn State a traveling partner and open up the conference to the large markets of New York and, to a lesser extent, Philadelphia. But I suspect the Big Ten will go larger than that. In fact, I would not be surprised if the Big Ten expands to sixteen teams when it is all said and done. If they go to sixteen, I predict that the following schools would be added:
Three in the East:
Rutgers -- for the reasons stated above.
Syracuse -- while geographically isolated, has a strong following in New York and a substantial alumni network among the sports media. While that sort of thing shouldn't matter, it does. ESPN is filled with Syracuse grads.
Pittsburgh -- the most logical choice geographically and would lock up the parts of Pennsylvania that Penn State does not get.
Two in the West: with one of two scenarios happening.
Scenario one would be a parlay of Missouri and Kansas. Natural rivals, strong academic schools (arguably the strongest in the Big XII aside from Texas) and would tie up the St. Louis and Kansas City markets. While Nebraska is a traditional football powerhouse and has a national following, it doesn't give you much in other sports. And Iowa State is a nothingburger.
Scenario two would be Texas and Texas A & M. This would be the dream scenario, as these two schools would bring the Eyes of Texas to the Big Ten. As Miller notes in his article, Texas still remembers the furor it caused when it moved to the Big XII, causing the breakup of the Southwest Conference. While that matters, if the two schools traveled together it would be less of an issue.
What about Notre Dame? I really think that ship has sailed. In retrospect, ND should have taken the Big Ten's offer back in 1999, but it's now probably too late.
The one other school that is not on Miller's list that would make sense is Maryland, which would give the Big Ten access to Baltimore and Washington, DC. But that seems less likely.
No matter what happens, this much seems certain -- when the Big Ten makes its move, it will have a huge impact on all the other conferences. It's no accident that the Big East has retained the services of former NFL commissioner Paul Tagliabue to help them out, because they know the Big Ten is going to come calling.
So what do you think?
3 comments:
The Big East is going to be done. It will be the one that ends up being raided the most. I have to wonder if the Big Ten does not go sixteen at first, and is just happy with having twelve if the SEC, and ACC still go that way anyway to beat the Big Ten to the punch. If one of the Major Cons does it then they all will have to do it. When this is all said, and done over the course of the next year, or so we could have five cons of 16. I just want to see how many of the programs that would be shut out of this just drop their football programs. The Big East may be able to stick around as another Atlantic 10.
Humbug. That's what I think. Maybe I'd be more interested if the Gophers were less consistently mediocre. Ach, who am I kidding? I'm grouchy about universities in general. I think they deserve a long hard look at their reason for being. ("Shut up already.") Yes, I should zip the lip.
Leave out the Texas schools. They're too far afield and I value geography. Bring in Pittsburgh and Notre Dame and we can change the name to The Big Baker's Dozen. That would be cool. Every year, the tournaments would exclude just one team, who would then win a trophy. Kind of a reverse Floyd of Rosedale. It could be cast iron squirrel.
I like it, Picklesworth. Maybe they could do something like they do in British soccer, where the 13th place school has to drop down and play a season in the MIAC or something and they promote the Johnnies or the Tommies for a year.
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