Thursday, October 29, 2015

Debate Recap -- It's Raining Mensheviks!

I didn't see all of yesterday's debate, but I caught enough of it to get a flavor. Observations:

  • More than a few of these people need to go home now. The entire undercard would be a good place to start; the only candidate of that group that I'd want to hear is Bobby Jindal, but it's just not happening for him in this cycle.
  • Mike Huckabee needs to go home. He's very good in this format, but he's never going to be president and it's time he makes his peace with that. As he kept talking about eradicating diseases, I was half expecting him to start doing one of his infomercials.
  • John Kasich should go home as well. He's not going to be president and when, you watch his body language and demeanor, he knows it.
  • Rand Paul was there, apparently. Not so much that you'd notice, though. I think Ted Cruz has essentially eaten his lunch. I wish Rand well in his promised filibuster today -- a return to the Senate is very much in order.
  • Chris Christie had a good night, but I doubt he did enough to move the needle. I appreciated his comment about fantasy football, as it underscores the behavior of our government and the functionaries and grandees who are in its employ -- they are less interested in solving existing problems than in finding new opportunities to regulate and control the behavior of others. H. L. Mencken made the same point many years ago.
  • Jeb Bush had a disastrous night. He tried, pretty much at the outset, to take out Marco Rubio, but his attack went nowhere, because Rubio was ready for it. It's difficult to see any rationale for Bush's campaign, other than it's his turn. Bush has a lot of money and a big ol' Super PAC, but I don't see a way forward.
  • Carly Fiorina didn't make much progress. According to NPR's clock, she got the most time to speak, but in the exchanges I saw she wasn't particularly effective. I suspect she sticks around for a while, but the window appears to be closing on her campaign.
  • Ted Cruz intrigues me, but I wonder if he'll be able to translate his intellect into a winning campaign formula for the general election. He was quite effective in excoriating the CNBC moderators for their bias and rudeness, but I wonder if references to the Bolsheviks and Mensheviks work in the larger context. He's the smartest man in the room, but I sense he's still too much of the college debate champion and suspect he'll be a tough sell to the audience he needs to win. He scares the hell of the Left, though, and that's something..
  • Ben Carson is leading in some national polling and while I don't see the reason for it, I suspect his calm demeanor is crucial. He's a doctor with an outstanding bedside manner. Does that make him a plausible president? I'm still skeptical.
  • Marco Rubio is a contender. He had an excellent debate last night and he's left Jeb Bush in his wake. He was ready for the attack on his Senate attendance record and he seemed to gain the sympathy of the audience when the moderators started in on his personal finances. He may not win, but he's going to be there at the end.
  • Donald Trump is an acquired taste and I'm not likely to acquire it. Having said that, he's a compelling figure and his supporters don't care much about the many cavils others might offer. While I think Cruz has more native intelligence, Trump has done a great job of reading the mood of the electorate he is currently courting. He might get bored with the campaign, but I wouldn't bet on that happening. He's going to be around to the end.

1 comment:

First Ringer said...

I can't remember who made the comment, but one outlet referred to CNBC's moderating style as the party host who hogs the hors d'oeuvres and inserts themselves into every conversation.

I'm relieved to finally see the candidates push back against the structure of these debates - doing everything possible to encourage conflict and pushing the meme that the GOP isn't focused on the issues. It's hard to look like you care about the serious issues when asked about everyone's position on Fantasy Football et al. And on a sidenote, why the GOP, or even CNBC, would want to risk scheduling a debate that conflicted with the World Series is beyond me.

After last night, I'm assuming the chatter about Jeb leaving the race will only increase. He's angry, bitter and completely out of his element. If he departs, he'll blame the mood of the electorate, but in truth, he looks like a candidate whose been on the sidelines for a decade and has forgotten how to run a campaign. In that scenario, I can only imagine what Jeb's Right to Rise PAC will do with their funds. Will they sit out the primary? Will they attack Trump? Or will they follow their candidate's lead and attack Rubio in a sort of revenge ploy (even though Rubio isn't the reason for Bush's fall, only it's financial beneficiary)?