Sorting out the local election

We have an election in less than a week in New Brighton. There are five people currently on the city council, including the following:

• Dave Jacobsen, the mayor. He would like to return to the office.
• Paul Jacobsen, a city council member. His seat is up and he would like to return.
• Mary Burg, a city council member. Her seat is up and she would like to return.
• Brian Strub, a city council member. His seat is not up and he will serve for the next two years.
• Gina Bauman, a city council member. Her seat is not up, but she is running for mayor.

The other candidates in the field are the following:

• Val Johnson, running for mayor.
• Susan Erickson, running for city council.
• Rick Moses, running for city council.

The council seats are at-large, so the voters will vote for two city council members, who serve a four-year term, and for mayor. The mayoral term is two years.

A few general comments on the candidates:

• Dave Jacobsen has been, for the most part, a big improvement over his predecessors. Having said that, we're starting to see diminishing returns. The longer he stays in office, the more amenable he has been to increasing spending and being open to raising taxes.
• Paul Jacobsen has also been trending left over his time on the council. Under the proper circumstances, he could reverse that trend.
• Mary Burg likes to spend money. She's consistently pushed for larger government, more taxes, and more roles for the city government. If you're into that sort of thing, she gives you what you want.
• Gina Bauman is the only truly consistent conservative in local government. Gina takes her role seriously and is not afraid to battle against the others on the council.
• Val Johnson is a longtime city resident who argues that her love of the city compels her to seek a greater role. If elected, she will spend as much money as she can.
• Susan Erickson is a conservative. If elected, she would work well with Gina Bauman as a fiscal guardian.
• Rick Moses is also a conservative. If elected, he would be a fiscal guardian as well and an effective one.

It's difficult to guess how this election will turn out. New Brighton tends to support big spenders in general elections, but local elections tend to have far less voter participation, so the side that is more motivated is the one that generally wins, and the conservatives are often particularly motivated in off-year elections. 

What is certain about city government for the next two years -- Brian Strub will be on the council. Strub is a liberal and makes no bones about it. Gina Bauman will be on the council as well, but her role is yet to be determined.

What do you want your government to do? If you want city government to be kept on a short leash, you should support Gina Bauman for mayor and Susan Erickson and Rick Moses for city council. If Gina becomes mayor, there would be an appointment to fill her remaining term on the council and you could safely assume another conservative would fill that role.

If you want a free-spending, liberal city government, you should support Val Johnson for mayor and Mary Burg and Paul Jacobsen for city council. You will get a bigger government and can safely assume that your property taxes will rise, perhaps significantly, over the next two years..

If you want the status quo, which means a slow drift to the left and increasing taxes, but just not in such a hurry, you should support Dave Jacobsen for mayor and Burg and Paul Jacobsen for city council.

The best result would look like this:

Mayor: Gina Bauman

City Council: Susan Erickson, Rick Moses, Brian Strub and an appointed council member

An acceptable scenario would be:

Mayor: Dave Jacobsen

City Council: Gina Bauman, either Erickson or Moses, Strub and Paul Jacobsen

The worst case scenario:

Mayor: Val Johnson:

City Council, Bauman, Mary Burg, Paul Jacobsen and Strub

We'll sort it out in a week.