- I sense Donald Trump is starting to get a little bored with the festivities. He's leading, but he's not necessarily winning.
- Ben Carson says some things that ought to be said, but he's not going to be president.
- Marco Rubio has a chance. That's become obvious in recent days as his patrons, the Bush family, are now attacking him.
- Ted Cruz has a plan and he is executing it well. He's still a problematic candidate for the general election, but he's clearly the most intelligent candidate in the field. And if he can make a splash in South Carolina, watch out.
- It's been fairly quiet for Carly Fiorina since she made her splash in September. She needs to raise her profile again.
- Jeb Bush is not going to be president. He's not attuned to the concerns of the primary electorate and he's not going to get to the general election unless he can convince enough primary voters that he does understand their concerns. He can't make that sale.
- Everyone else in the Republican field has no shot.
- Hillary Clinton, barring a deus ex machina moment, is going to be the Democratic nominee. And the MSM is going to be doing some heavy lifting on her behalf.
- Bernie Sanders doesn't really want to be president. That's a good thing.
- Martin O'Malley desperately wants to be president. He won't be. In 20 years, he can run again as the portside version of George Pataki.
Who do you like? Who don't you like?
7 comments:
Good assessment, D.
I would add that at this point, Rubio and Cruz seem the most likely eventual nominees to me. Carson has raised a good chunk of cash, but he's also spent handsomely; his burn rate probably isn't sustainable. While the wheels haven't come off the Trump bandwagon, the lugnuts are looking pretty loose after 4 consecutive polls show him down big in Iowa. I can't help but wonder what waves the ripples from those polls will create. And if Trump is seen as generally declining across the board, what will he do (what does he want to do?) to correct it? He's got roughly $250k on hand, not including about a million dollars in campaign debt. Will he really dip into his coffers to pay for a major ad blitz? I'm not entirely sure.
The problem I see more for Rubio than Cruz is where that first victory is suppose to come. Cruz is certainly betting the house on coming close in Iowa, with the hopes of winning the Hawkeye State and taking that momentum to South Carolina, as you basically suggest. But what exactly is Rubio's strategy? He's polling better in Iowa than New Hampshire, but almost no one is seriously contesting Trump's lead in New Hampshire (and I'm sorry, but Kasich and Christie doing so doesn't really count). If I had Rubio's ear, I'd recommend he hit the Granite State hard. A decent finish in Iowa and a win in New Hampshire and Rubio's in the mix for Super Tuesday. I don't think he afford to simply win Florida and still be in contention...and that's not a given especially if he's lost all the other early states.
I will add this, reading Nate Silver yesterday, that I was talking about this over the course of Trumpmania this summer (and thank God it's starting to look accurate!):
“Iowans are paying more attention to the race than people elsewhere in the country, so they may be early adopters of trends we’ll see elsewhere. In other words, once Trump starts getting Iowa-type scrutiny in other states, he might fade.”
ABT. Anybody but Trump. OK, and anybody but a Democrat. By circling the wagons around the Obama corruption--I'm sorry, if you can't find anything to prosecute in Fast & Furious or the IRS debacle, that's corruption--the Democrats are showing that they cannot be trusted with power.
Not that the GOP is that much better, but like they said in "What about Bob?", "Baby Steps." And the biggest baby steps would be Carson, Rubio, or Cruz.
if Trump gets the nod, he'll win in the general. bank it. i expect the GOP to find a way to screw this one up, though, making Hillary! the first female president.
Trump is a fascist. The other GOP candidates can't point this out because his candidacy is the logical progression of their own marketing strategy going back to (at least) Nixon. Since they can't/won't attack him on his most glaring shortcoming, he remains the candidate to beat on that side.
Carson isn't a serious person, and neither is anyone who thinks he has any business being president.
The rest of the GOP field are well positioned for being remembered as being the group who couldn't stop Donald Trump.
Hillary Clinton is going to be president.
Bernie Sanders may be the left's Barry Goldwater, but we won't know for another 10-20 years.
I don't particularly like any of them, but certainly dislike some more than others.
Bernie Sanders may be the left's Barry Goldwater, but we won't know for another 10-20 years.
To me, he's more of a Gene McCarthy redux, with a little William Jennings Bryan thrown in.
This country needs to go 'full bernie' before it collapses... then we can start over again.
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